Operator
Operator
Good morning. My name is Keith and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Goodyear's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2016 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. I would now like to hand the program over to Christina Zamarro, Goodyear's Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am. Christina Zamarro - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Thank you, everyone, for joining us for Goodyear's fourth quarter 2016 earnings call. Joining me today are Rich Kramer, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Laura Thompson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started, there are a few items we need to cover. To begin, the supporting slide presentation for today's call can be found on our website at investor.goodyear.com, and a replay of this call will be available later today. Replay instructions were included in our earnings release issued earlier this morning. If I could now draw your attention to the Safe Harbor statement on slide 2, I would like to remind participants on today's call that our presentation includes some forward-looking statements about Goodyear's future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments today. The most significant factors that could affect future results are outlined in Goodyear's filings with the SEC and in our earnings release. The company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Our financial results are presented on a GAAP basis and in some cases, on non-GAAP basis. The non-GAAP financial measures discussed on our call are reconciled to the U.S. GAAP equivalent as part of the appendix to the slide presentation. And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Rich. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Thank you, Christina, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I'll review our 2016 highlights and then ask Laura to walk us through the fourth quarter results, then I'll come back to discuss each of our business units and layout our 2017 plan in the context of our longer-term targets. Laura will finish with a detailed review of our 2017 segment operating income outlook before opening the call for your questions. Our fourth quarter and full-year results were highlighted by growth in core segment operating income. On a full-year basis, the Americas generated SOI of $1.2 billion and operating margin of 14.1%. Consumer tire margin in the Americas increased about 200 basis points in the fourth quarter and for the full year. Europe, Middle East, and Africa delivered $461 million of SOI for the year, and margin expanded to 9.4%. Asia Pacific generated SOI of $373 million, its highest ever, and margin increased to 17.7%. In total, our full-year core segment operating income grew to a record $2 billion, in line with our third quarter guidance. Slide 4 summarizes the progress we have made executing our strategy, resulting in steady segment operating income growth and positioning us well for that growth to continue. Our team has consistently delivered year-over-year growth while building our capabilities for the long term. This marks our fourth consecutive year and sixth of the past seven of delivering record core segment operating income. Since 2013, our SOI has grown 25%. This improvement each year is rooted in our strategy and reflects our industry-leading value proposition, which combines our innovation and technology leadership, our award-winning products, and the global strength of the Goodyear brand in an aligned and connected business model. Our earnings growth, combined with the actions we've taken to address our pension obligations and to reduce our interest expense, have translated to more than 40% annual compounded growth in our operating EPS. I'm pleased and proud of the Goodyear team for delivering this performance. As we discussed at our Investor Day last September, our strategy is designed to take advantage of the long-term trends shaping our industry. Global demand for high value-added large-rim diameter tires is increasing. In 2016, the percent of growth in the larger-than-17-inch tires was greater than that of the overall global growth in consumer tires. This trend will continue into the future and works in our favor as our portfolio of these products and our connected business model position us on a path to sustained growth and competitive advantage. Our performance to-date has enabled us to deliver on our 2014 to 2016 capital allocation plan, further validating our strategy. And with an eye on our 2020 plan, this morning, we announced the $1 billion increase to our share repurchase authorization. As we look at 2016, I'm very pleased with our fourth quarter and full-year results. Achieving these outcomes is perhaps the best indication of the strength of our strategy and the changes we have made to Goodyear's business over the past several years. Now, with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Laura to walk through the fourth quarter results. Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Thank you, Rich, and good morning, everyone. Turning to the income statement on slide 5 and as in prior quarters, we have provided callouts that highlight the impact of deconsolidating Venezuela. Our unit volume was down 2% year-over-year as growth in Asia Pacific was offset by declines in Americas and EMEA. Our fourth quarter sales were $3.7 billion, down from $4.1 billion a year ago with the decrease driven by the deconsolidation of Venezuela. Our gross margin increased nearly 3 full points to 27.2%, and segment operating margin increased 1 full point to 12.8%. Segment operating income of $479 million was up 5% excluding the impact of Venezuela from our 2015 results. Our fourth quarter earnings per share on a diluted basis was $2.14. Our results were influenced by certain significant items. Adjusting for these items, our earnings per share was $0.95. The step chart on slide 6 walks fourth quarter 2015 segment operating income to fourth quarter 2016. The negative impact of lower volume was $19 million. Lower production, driven in part by our U.S. commercial truck business was $27 million in the quarter. Lower price/mix of $66 million more than offset reduced raw material costs of $18 million for a net $48 million negative impact. The year-over-year decline is reflective of the declining raw material environment over the past one year and weakness in our U.S. commercial truck business. Sequentially, price/mix was stable. The sequential decline in net price/mix versus raw materials was driven by the lower raw material benefit versus the third quarter. Our third quarter guidance for full-year net price/mix versus raw materials included an expectation of potential price increases during the fourth quarter. With volatility around raw material cost increasing dramatically throughout the fourth quarter, we elected to implement pricing actions at the start of the year, impacting the price/mix versus raw material outcome. Cost-saving actions of $120 million driven by our operational excellence initiatives and SAG actions more than offset the $37 million negative impact of inflation, delivering a net benefit of $83 million. On a full-year basis, our net cost savings was $190 million. Foreign currency exchange was a slight headwind of $3 million, and other was a net benefit of $35 million driven primarily by lower incentive compensation. Turning to the balance sheet on slide 7, cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter were about $1.1 billion. Net debt was down more than $700 million from the third quarter. Our global pension unfunded liability at the end of the year was $669 million, up slightly from the prior year. Free cash flow from operations is shown on slide 8. For the quarter, we generated $1 billion in free cash flow from operations driven by an $833 million working capital benefit. Additionally, cash flow from operating activities was $1.3 billion in the quarter and $1.5 billion for the full-year 2016. The strong cash generation during the quarter supported the repurchase of $300 million of our common stock during the fourth quarter or about 10 million shares. For the full year, we repurchased $500 million in common stock or 16.7 million shares. In addition, we repaid $200 million on our U.S. second lien term loan in December, taking the remaining balance to $400 million. Turning to slide 9, Americas generated record segment operating income of $295 million in the fourth quarter or 14.3% to sales. Excluding Venezuela, operating income grew by $33 million or 13%. The increase in income was driven by strong performance in our consumer tire business, which was partially offset by continuing weakness in commercial truck, which was down $32 million year-over-year. Unit sales in the fourth quarter were 18.7 million, down 5% versus 2015. The negative impact of Venezuela accounts for about 300,000 units with a much weaker U.S. commercial truck OE industry and consumer OE business driving much of the remaining difference. OE volume was impacted by the timing of new model changeovers and lower overall production at OE in the quarter. Excluding Venezuela, replacement sales were about flat for the region. For the full year, Americas delivered segment operating income of $1.15 billion or 14.1% to sales. When excluding the impacts related to Venezuela and the sale of GDTNA, SOI continues to show solid growth. Turning to slide 10, Europe, Middle East and Africa generated segment operating income of $81 million in the quarter. The year-over-year decline in SOI was due to negative net price/mix versus raw material costs, which was primarily driven by timing associated with raw material index agreements in our OE contracts. Overall, EMEA's fourth quarter unit volumes declined 1% year-over-year. EMEA's OE unit volume was down 5%, primarily driven by choices we've made in our consumer business as we continue to focus on the more profitable 17-inch and larger-rim size fitments. Replacement tire shipments were up almost 1%, driven by growth in the 17-inch-and-above segment of the consumer market where our Europool volume increased 19% year-over-year. We continue to see declining industry demand and increased competition at the lower end of the consumer replacement business, particularly in the summer segment. For the full year, EMEA delivered $461 million in SOI and 6% growth for the year with margin expanding to 9.4%. Turning to slide 11, Asia Pacific delivered record fourth quarter segment operating income of $103 million, a $7 million improvement versus last year. The main drivers continue to be the benefits of volume growth and the positive impact from our operational excellence programs driving lower conversion cost. Our segment operating margin in the region increased to 18.8% from 17.2% a year ago. Asia Pacific's volume was 8.4 million tire units, representing about a 1% growth versus last year, primarily attributable to our key consumer markets in China and India. Given its proximity to natural rubber production and relatively lower levels of inventory, Asia Pacific began to feel the impact of higher raw material costs in the fourth quarter. While we anticipate higher raw material costs and currency headwinds for the region in the short-term, we continue to view China and the rest of the region as a key long-term growth opportunity. We're investing in our teams, our products, and our capabilities to drive that growth. On a full-year basis, Asia Pacific delivered record SOI of $373 million with margin increasing to 17.7%. I'll now turn the call back over to Rich. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Great. Thank you, Laura. We feel very positive about the progress in our business in 2016, and we remain confident in our ability to continue delivering on our long-term plan. Our strategy is clear and unwavering and, despite significant headwinds, including raw material costs, we believe we are positioned to generate significant increases in SOI and cash flow over the long term. While 2016 was strong for both Goodyear and the industry, we know there are trends that have your attention. They have ours as well. So, I'd like to continue my remarks by offering some perspective on two key topics affecting the global tire industry going forward. The first area relates to industry growth, which continues to be a great story in the premium segment. The industry saw robust growth in large-rim diameter tire sizes in 2016. In the U.S. market, the full-year growth in the 17-inch-and-larger segment was 9%, and in EMEA, it was 10%. As we discussed at our Investor Day, the 17-inch-and-above rim diameter tires are a good proxy for where the industry profit pool is going. With the increasing demand for these premium tires, we expect supply to remain tight. The segment is growing in multiples of the total industry. Our strategy and our strength focuses on the increasing profit pool in that part of the market that is simultaneously growing and mixing up. We're focused on the part of the market where Goodyear can add value with our technology, with our brand, with our distribution, and with all the capabilities that we bring to bear for the market. The trend towards larger, more complex tires has been driven by the auto manufacturers. In 2017, we will continue to implement our OE strategy where we target profitable fitments that have high loyalty rates and pull-through in the replacement market. While we continue to demonstrate a leading presence on successful vehicle fitments that were launched in previous years, we also have won a number of new fitments that will be rolled out over the coming year. As you would expect, these platforms depend on the performance characteristics of Goodyear's premium large-rim diameter tires. These are the type of platforms that we target with our OE strategy. They deliver strong return to the OE and lead to profitable growth in replacement. The second area of focus is raw material costs. Turning to slide 13, you'll see significant volatility in our key commodity costs, including natural rubber prices. Since our last earnings call, there's been a swing from a low of $0.67 per pound to a peak of $1.04 per pound as recently as last week, an increase of an astounding 55%. And the raw material cost story is about more than just natural rubber, with challenges coming in a broad cross-section of commodities. For example, prices of key commodities such as butadiene and carbon black have risen to 52-week highs in recent weeks. We expect raw material costs to remain at heightened levels in 2017. I'm pleased with how our team has been aggressively responding in this environment. We are confident that we will continue to offset raw material cost increases as we continue to focus on price/mix as a key component of our business. As shown on slide 14, over the past seven years, changes in raw materials have been largely offset by changes in price. This includes during 2011 when our commodity headwind was $2 billion and natural rubber reached a peak of around $2.60 per pound. With that as a backdrop, I'd like to turn the discussion to address the year ahead in each of our business units, starting with the Americas on slide 15. As I mentioned earlier, the U.S. market grew 9% in the larger rim sizes during 2016, outpacing growth in the overall market by more than four times. Our growth in these segments was on par with the market, which is a significant achievement given the supply constraints we've been managing through over the past several quarters. The investments we've made within the U.S., including growth CapEx to increase our supply of larger, more profitable tires, enabled us to sell 1.7 million more of the large rim size tires in the replacement market in 2016. In 2017, we're launching a number of new exciting products including the Goodyear Assurance WeatherReady in the commuter touring segment. The introduction of the WeatherReady at our recent Americas Customer Conference received an overwhelmingly positive response as did the new Endurance tire for trailers and RVs, and the Endurance LHD commercial tire for long haul applications. At the conference, we also reinforced the value of the Goodyear brand and emphasized that our customers' alignment to our strategy has both fueled their growth and positioned them to win in the future. Every year, our customers and associates leave this event energized and optimistic about Goodyear, and this year was certainly no exception. The investments we've made in our existing U.S. footprint and the start of production in our Americas plant later this year will drive our volume growth in the premium 17-inch-and-above segment. We continue to be focused on increasing our capability and managing our production costs to increase our supply of the right tires for this demand in 2017. This remains our top priority. The U.S. commercial truck industry continues to be affected by weak OE volumes and the impact of anticipated tariffs on Chinese imports in the replacement market. The current industry environment in heavy truck, especially new truck production, continues to be challenging. On the other hand, we began to see improvement in the replacement market in the fourth quarter where our volume was up 5% year-over-year. We will continue to drive value in our commercial business through our exclusive end-to-end total solutions business model for fleets, while leveraging our Goodyear and Kelly-branded products in the mid-tier. While we expect the first half of 2017 for our commercial business will be weaker year-over-year driven by OE, we are building on that positive replacement market momentum and expect that the business will grow again in the second half. Outside the U.S., we expect both the consumer OE and replacement industry in Latin America to grow in the low-single-digits in 2017, where we have successfully mixed up in a very, very tough environment. As an example, our team in Brazil has focused on expanding its aligned dealer and distribution network and building capabilities to drive value with these important customers. I am extremely pleased with our progress particularly in this very difficult environment. Our products are at the core of this improvement. Over the past four years, 100% of the consumer replacement product portfolio in Brazil has been refreshed and revitalized. The consistent strength of our Americas business is the result of our unwavering commitment to a strategy built on the alignment and integration of our industry-leading products developed from the market back, our aligned distribution network, and the power of the Goodyear brand. Turning now to slide 16, our EMEA business saw strong fourth quarter growth in the greater-than-17-inch rim size segment of 19%, which nearly doubles the industry growth rate. This performance is attributable to our award-winning winter tire value proposition where we gained share in both the larger and the smaller rim size segments. In the summer replacement sector, however, we continue to see increased competition, including from low-cost imports, which led to year-over-year volume declines in the less-than-17-inch segment of the market. Last quarter, I outlined our plan to take the necessary steps to shift our resources and reduce our exposure to declining less profitable market segments in EMEA. This includes the previously announced footprint action in Philippsburg, Germany. In the current environment, we expect our volume declines in the less-than-17-inch summer segment to continue throughout the course of 2017. In addition, we're in the process of realigning our go-to market model across the region similar to the approach that we've successfully implemented in the U.S. Over the long term, this recalibration will strengthen and further differentiate our value proposition to our distribution and service network. These actions, when coupled with foreign currency headwinds, will make for a very challenging year for our EMEA business. We believe these actions, while difficult, are necessary to position the business for sustainable long-term growth. We'll continue to seek opportunities to accelerate our mix-up in the region. We're confident that our line-up of high value-added, large rim diameter tires will enable us to meet the increasing demand in the industry's most profitable, high growth segment. Turning to Asia Pacific, we're very pleased with our full-year results and are consistently building on our foundation to enable continued long-term growth in the region. In 2017, we see consumer replacement industry growth across the region in the mid single-digit range driven by our key markets in China and India. We also see growth in the OE industry in the low single-digits. We expect our momentum in 2016 will continue and lead the strong growth in China again in 2017. Our confidence is strengthened by multiple new OE platforms wins in 17-inch-and-above rim sizes and continued expansion opportunities for consumer replacement in Tier 3 and Tier 4 cities. As an example, we expect double-digit volume growth in large rim size SUV tires in our consumer business and continued strong demand across our product mix. In November, we broke ground on the latest expansion of our existing facility in Pulandian, China. This will enable us to produce an additional 3 million passenger and light truck tires annually, supporting our growth in the profitable segments of the market over the intermediate term. The ramp-up of this incremental capacity will be completed in 2019. We're very optimistic about the long-term value proposition of our business in Asia Pacific. Our new product introductions, OE pull-through and buildout of our distribution network will be supported by increased premium tire capacity and gives us confidence that we will continue to be successful in this growing region. Turning to slide 17, our next stage plan, as we discussed at our Investor Day, includes a target of $3 billion in SOI by 2020 and cumulative free cash flow of up to $5 billion over the next four years. The cadence of our earnings will certainly be affected by raw material input costs this year. With the recent increases in raw material costs, we are now expecting SOI in 2017 to be about flat compared to 2016. While we expected raw material costs to increase over the period, the rise we are currently experiencing has been both faster and steeper than we anticipated. However, we have both the confidence and the demonstrated capability to recover our input costs over time. We remain committed to our 2020 targets and our plan to deliver 20 million more premium tires over the next four years. We see 2017 as a foundational year leading to 2018 when we expect our earnings trajectory to accelerate. We believe there are four specific drivers of that growth. First, assuming raw material costs stabilize, we would expect a year-over-year tailwind from net price versus raw materials resulting from the approximate six-month timing lag related to our OE and fleet contracts. Second, we will realize cost savings in EMEA including the impact of the Philippsburg plant closure. Third, as I mentioned earlier, we expect our U.S. commercial truck business to be stronger. And finally, increased production in our new Americas plant in 2018 will help offset ongoing plant startup costs. Combination of these factors should accelerate earnings growth in 2018 as we continue to mix up and implement cost savings initiatives. As you think about our results over the next two years, it makes sense to think about 2017 and 2018 together. We remain focused on executing our strategy, and we are confident that we will continue to deliver strong earnings and economic value. I'm pleased with the state of the business as we look ahead. as I told our customers at our recent conference, the mix-up opportunity in our industry is as good as it has ever been. And for those who can also manage its complexity, this mix shift will be a tremendous opportunity. As I frequently say, we're not running our business for one quarter or one year but for the long term. We know that because a variety of factors, such as the unexpected steep increases in raw material costs, the tire business rarely grows in a straight line. That's okay. That's the tire business. That's why we have a 2020 plan and not a one-year plan. The Goodyear team has the experience and knows how to manage through it, and I have confidence we will. I'll now turn the call back over to Laura to finish up with our 2017 outlook. Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Thank you, Rich. Turning to slide 18, with unabsorbed overhead and the impact of the timing lag related to our raw material indexed agreement occurring in the first several months of the year, the profile of our first half will be very different from our second half. We expect a softer first half with accelerating growth in the second half of 2017. So net-net, our full-year SOI is expected to be about flat based on our current planning assumption. As the current raw material environment remains extremely volatile, we will update you again as part of our first quarter earnings call. Turning to slide 19, we have updated our full-year 2017 SOI drivers. Overall, we expect volume growth of about 1% for the year and an unabsorbed overhead headwind of about $70 million, driven by lower production carryover and lower first quarter production. We expect raw material costs to be up 27% based on current spot prices and that equates to a $1.1 billion increase versus last year. Looking at the net of these raw material cost increases and positive price/mix performance, the outlook is about flat for 2017. The rapid increase in raw material costs will create a timing imbalance with our raw material indexed agreement that cover about 35% of our business. Strong mix over the course of the year will offset this temporary price versus raws imbalance. As a final note to the price/mix expectations for the year, we see global OTR industry demand in 2017 to be largely similar to 2016. As a result, we are expecting essentially a neutral impact to mix from our OTR business. We expect our cost savings actions to exceed inflation by about $140 million in 2017 as our operational excellence initiatives continue to deliver strong results. Looking at the impact of foreign currency translation at current spot rate, we estimate about a $50 million negative impact. The other line represents a combined headwind from plant startup costs, increased R&D, and higher depreciation in 2017, partially offset by the adjustment during the second quarter of 2016. The outlook for these combined is a $50 million headwind. The outlook in total for 2017 is for full-year SOI to be about $2.0 billion. On slide 20, we have listed the other financial assumptions for 2017. As part of those assumptions, we see working capital as a use of $200 million, as raw material cost increases along with startup inventory at our new plant drive an increase for the year. I'd like to cover the $1 billion increase to our share repurchase authorization briefly before we open the line for your questions. We remain committed to our capital allocation plan where our free cash flow is allocated both to debt repayment and returning capital to shareholders. In either case, we will execute on our capital allocation plan over time and as we generate the cash. Now, we'll open the line up for your questions.