Karl Staubo
Analyst · Weber Research
Thank you, Eduardo. Turning to Slide 11 which elaborates on the embedded upside on the commodity exposure of Hilli's tariff. As you can see during 2021 Golar pro rata share of Hilli's EBITDA was $99 million. This is expected to grow by 2.5 times for 2022 on the back of higher Brent linked earnings where Golar generates $2.7 million of EBITDA for every dollar Brent is above 60. This is expected to generate about $91 million of EBITDA for 2022. Furthermore, the startup of the incremental 0.2 million tons of TTF linked production that commenced in January other than other $22.6 million in Golar share of Hilli Q1 EBITDA. For the full year, the TTF linked production is expected to add $81 million in incremental revenue where the TTF gas price exposure for Q2 and Q3 has been hedged at $25.38 per MMBtu. We remain open for Q4 TTF gas price exposure. Perenco, the charter of the unit has a onetime three year option to declare up to 0.4 million tons of increased production from 2023 until end of the contract in July 26 on the same TTF linked tariff as the current 0.2 produced this year. The option is declarable within end of July, and we see it as increasingly likely that Perenco will take up the option on the back of strong gas prices, but subject to the final outcome of the drilling program to tie in more reserves to Hilli. We do not expect Perenco to take up the option until closer to expiry of the option in July. The commodity exposure on Hilli enables as an FLNG provider to charge significantly higher tolling fees for traditional long-term tolling arrangements. As you can see from the boxes on the slide, the effective tolling fee for Hilli during 2021 was $3 per MMBtu. This has increased to an effective tolling fee of $13 per MMBtu during 2022. Hence the commodity exposure of our FLNG contracts, both existing and the ones we will target going forward, we see an extremely compelling risk reward. And we will continue to target similar type of structures. Turning to Slide 12 and an update on the construction of the FLNG Gimi, which is now 83% technically complete for conversion at Keppel Shipyard in Singapore. We have currently worked over 19 million man hours on the conversion. The reminder of the build is mainly around construction, installation and testing of equipment ahead of her 2023 sail-away and Q4 ‘23 startup. In light of the recent resurgence of COVID in certain parts of Asia, we continue to closely monitor and take precautions for any potential COVID impacts for the 3,500 workers on site. We currently have no material impact on site and again this is the situation we are monitoring closely and we feel comfortable with the situation where it stands today. Turning to Slide 13 and as promised earlier in the presentation elaborating on the different FLNG designs we have available. We have developed three different designs all based on a generic design, meaning that they will not be tailor made to a specific field, both can be redeployed or interchanged, increasing operational flexibility and reducing residual value risk. They're also based on the same proven liquefaction topside and an extension of Golar’s proven operational track record. The Mark I has a liquefaction capacity of up to 2.7 million tons a year and it's suitable for stranded and associated gas resources. Both Hilli and Gimi are Mark I design FLNGs and are based on conversion of existing LNG must carriers. The Golar Tundra remains a Golar owned conversion candidate for potential future incremental Mark I units. The Mark II design is also a conversion of an existing LNG carrier into an FLNG. However, instead of adding liquefaction equipment to the width of the ship, Mark II places the liquefaction topside on a new ship midsection added to an existing carrier. This allows for larger liquefaction capacities of up to 3.5 million tons and reduces the conversion construction time. Hence, this is a first direct solution for somewhat larger production projects than for Mark I. Lastly, our Mark III new build design is one we have worked to develop for more than a decade. Mark III has a liquefaction capacity of up to 5 million tons and is competitive also to larger shore-based liquefaction solutions. The lower CapEx per ton and lower carbon footprint even compared to land based solutions make the Mark III more economical faster to deploy liquefaction solution for large liquefaction projects globally. The new build hull also allows for increased storage and leg space. So our primary focus going forward is to develop projects that suit one of these three design alternatives. On page 14, we outlined why we mainly focus on floating African LNG projects when we look at our growth pipeline. When considering FLNG growth project, there are three key input factors that drive the delivery cost for LNG. Those are source gas, liquefaction costs, and lastly the shipping distance or shipping costs from production side to the end user. We believe that you can develop a stable source gas price of between $1 to $3 per MMBtu dependent on the size of the field in question if you target African gas. This compares to current spot prices for Henry Hub source gas in the U.S. where most of incremental liquefaction projects are planned of around $9 per MMBtu today. Secondly, as we are building a fit for purpose efficient liquefaction design in Asia, Golar's CapEx per ton compared to other floating or shore-based liquefaction solutions is very competitive. Lastly, African gas from a geographical point of view has a shorter sailing distance to end users whether they are in Europe or in Asia compared to U.S. liquefaction projects. Hence, if you have a lower input cost, a lower CapEx per ton and a shorter shipping distance, you should have a compelling competitive advantage when looking at the economics of incremental growth projects. Elaborating on that on Slide 15, again, this is a familiar slide that we have presented earlier occasions. But it gives a strong picture of the LNG value chain and the economics of an FLNG project. With source gas in Africa at around $1 per MMBtu, liquefaction cost on a tolling fee basis similar to what we charge BP on the Gimi of between $2 to $3 per MMBtu and shipping cost of around $1.50, African FLNG projects can today deliver LNG to end users for about $5 per MMBtu. If you compare that to current gas prices, these projects have a repayment of less than one year in the current market environment. This backdrop drives our FLNG project pipeline for potential charters and also explain why Golar is focused on projects where we can get exposure to commodity prices, driving the effective tolling fees significantly higher than for long-term tolling fees, as proven by their FLNG Gimi. This business model doesn't only work in a high gas price environment. On the right hand side, we have highlighted the $5 MMBtu of landed LNG price versus historical LNG prices. This business model makes money in most historical LNG price scenarios. However, we are strong believers that the energy and gas prices the next 10 years will be significantly higher than the previous 10 years, and hence FLNG should be an even better business going forward than what we have seen historically. In terms of illustrative economics, a tolling fee based on a large Mark III 5 million pounds FLNG units and a $3 tolling fee, we can generate an EBITDA of such a unit of around $750 million a year versus a CapEx of around 2.5 billion for such a large unit. Integrated projects however, using a 2.5 million ton Mark I design as an example and the landed gas price of $25 per MMBtu, in current gas price environment that would create an annual EBITDA of $2.5 billion to the project owners that we would target to be split between the upstream provider and the FLNG owner. So whether you go integrated or tolling, it's an attractive business. But if you believe as we do that, we will see higher energy prices you want to focus on integrated exposures. Turning the intention to FSRUs and the development that we have seen in Europe year-to-date. We have highlighted how the FSRU market has significantly changed on Slide 17. Entering into 2022, Europe has a total of 32 import facilities where 29 are land based and three are FSRUs. Year-to-date, we have seen 22 potential FSRU project surfacing where eight has already secured an FSRU and 14 remains on the planning stage. This compares to a global FSRU fleet of 46 units and an estimated availability of another three to five units in total between now and 2025. So the way we see it, it's three to five units available to service up to 14 incrementally planned FSRU project. We at Golar have received strong interest from several European countries for our open modern FSRU, the Golar Tundra. Turning to Slide 18, you can see that the gas price fundamentals keep on strengthening and keep on providing length. Starting on the far left, you can see the forward prices in May last year, in January this year and the 28th of May. The point being as one thing is that the front month is constantly lifting, but we're encouraged to see the future gas price also lifting providing further visibility for potential FLNG charters. On the mid side, you can see the expected liquefaction projects to come on between now and 2028. These are essentially pre -- I would call it pre-Ukraine Russia situation liquefaction projects, and this will seem to be needed to meet a balanced LNG market going forward. On the far right, we've taken some statistics to show how meaningful the impact of the Ukraine Russian situation may be on the need for liquefaction going forward. The global LNG market was last year 400 million tons. Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe was last year about 115 million tons, over 25% of the global LNG market. Hence, if European countries are to make really their ambitions to replace Russian gas with international LNG, we need to see a significant ramp up not only of re-gas terminals which key focus is on right now but gas sourcing. K eep in mind that the gas price in December was significantly higher than what it is today, even in the midst of the current situation. So this is a fundamentally tight market pre geopolitical shocks that after we expect it to be significantly stronger for longer. Turning to Slide 19 and a bit further background on last week's announced forward sale of the Golar Arctic. Golar Arctic is the only remaining steam LNG carrier in our fleet, by a long mile, the less competitive assets we have in our fleet. We entered into an agreement with Snam, where they will pursue a development of a virtual pipeline into Sardina. Snam is listed and has a market cap of around EUR18.7 billion. The transaction is a forward sale of the Arctic at €269 million payable in installments as defined milestones. Our estimated conversion CapEx is $160 million, excluding contingencies and vessel costs. Hence, we think that by doing this measure, we have significantly high graded the value of the ship. We found a long-term use for a steam carrier. And we leverage on the learning effects we did from a recent and similar conversion of the Golar Viking which was sold to LNG Croatia. Turning to corporate and Slide 21, Golar recently announced our 2021 ESG report now available on our website. We continue a very strong safety record. We improved lost time injuries. We high grade our AER data, and we're proud to say that throughout the pandemic, we have maintained a very high retention. We have more than 70% of cadets still employed with us, and for senior officers we have a retention of more than 94%. Not only is that important to keep high quality of operations, it's also important to cater for future growth, especially in light of the LNG and new buildings coming on stream going forward. Turning to Slide 22 highlighting the earnings potential from our existing asset portfolio. Last 12 months we made $148 million of EBITDA. And to that the contractual EBITDA of Gimi starting in Q4 of next year and the commodity upside on the commodity link production from Hilli, we expect our run rate EBITDA to be more than $400 million from 2024 onwards. Hence, on a fully delivered basis, we trade up an EBITDA of just shy of seven times with capacity to help at least another two FLNG growth projects just from our current balance sheet position. To summarize on Slide 23, we are a leading owner and operator of pioneering maritime LNG infrastructure, we expect our EBITDA to quadruple in 2024 versus 2021 levels. We have cash and listed securities of 1.4 billion and net -- fully delivered net debt of less than $300 million. We have a book value of -- standing currently at $2.54 billion. And we are very focused on our FLNG growth pipeline going forward. That concludes our Q1 presentation. And I'll now hand it over to the operator for questions.