Karl Fredrik Staubo
Analyst · Webber Research & Advisory. Please ask your question
Thank you, Eduardo. And turning to Slide 11, as Eduardo mentioned, Perenco exercised their option to produce the 0.2 million tons from ‘23 to ‘26. Hence Hilli will continue with 3 components to its EBITDA generation. In 2021, Golar share of Hilli EBITDA amounted to $95 million. For ‘22, we expect Golar shares to come in at around $270 million. The earnings increase is caused by higher Brent prices and the start-up of the TTF-linked production. For ‘22, we have hedged the TTF price exposure for Q3 at $25.37 per MMBtu, generating $19 million of TTF-linked EBITDA to Golar for the quarter. We remain open for Q4 ‘22. At current Q4 forward prices, we expect to make an EBITDA of around $47 million for Q4 alone. For 2023, we have just entered into a TTF price swap for 50% of the TTF exposure of $49.5 per MMBtu. That’s the energy equivalent of crude Brent prices at $291 a barrel. With TTF at $49.5 for ‘23, this will generate approximately $160 million in EBITDA to Golar, where 50% of that is now secured in terms of locked in the price. Combined with the Brent forward price for ‘23, which currently stands at $88 a barrel, we expect to generate $305 million in Golar share of Hilli EBITDA next year. Total debt service for Golar share of Hilli is $50 million, and Hilli alone will generate free cash flow to equity of $255 million for 2023 or $2.35 per Golar share. Turning to Slide 12 and Gimi. Gimi is now 86% technically complete for its conversion into an FLNG at Keppel Shipyard in Singapore. We have currently worked over 22 million man hours on the conversion with a daily construction team currently amounting to 4,200 workers. The remainder of the build is mainly around construction, installation and testing of equipment ahead of the 2023 sail-away, which will unlock $151 million in annual EBITDA to Golar for 20 years. During the quarter, Golar and Keppel Capital, together, the owners of Gimi, agreed to a $50 million incentive payment to Keppel Shipyard for initiatives to safeguard sail-away within the first half of ‘23. Incentive payment is payable at certain milestone and part of the amount is retractable if milestones are not met on agreed date. Since Golar is a 70% shareholder of Gimi, $35 million of the $50 million incentive payment will be covered by Golar. Gimi is on track to sail-away from the shipyard during the first half and for contract start-up during the second half of ‘23. Turning to Slide 13 and some of the most interesting developments that happened to Golar during the quarter, we have seen a significant pickup in interest from new clients investigating FLNG solution for gas field developments. Current and forward gas commodity prices combined with energy shortage seems to have fueled efficiencies in gas field development decisions. This is also reflected in our existing pipeline of FLNG growth projects that have seen a very strong progression during the quarter, both for tolling and integrated projects. On the back of this, we’ve taken active steps to confirm yard availability and updated CapEx pricing for our 3 different FLNG designs. We received confirmed price and yard availability for both Mark I and Mark II designs, and we are now in discussions with the Mark III shipyard for price and availability of a 5 million ton newbuild. Despite busy shipyards and an inflationary cost environment, we are happy to announce that we can deliver FLNGs during 2025 if we commit to a project during the second half of this year. The CapEx numbers received have seen inflation, but remain within the $500 million to $600 million of CapEx per ton of liquefaction capacity, which we think is highly attractive compared to other maritime and shore-based liquefaction solutions. This also compares very well to ENI’s recent announcement to acquire the FLNG EXMAR Tango for an implied price of between $950 million to $1.1 billion per ton of liquefaction capacity. So approximately exactly double of where we would have the CapEx. Furthermore, with the acquisition of the EXMAR Tango, Golar is now the only service provider of FLNGs with a proven track record globally. We’ve also received financing term sheets for construction and long-term lease financing for potential FLNG newbuilds from an existing relationship lease counterpart. As Eduardo alluded to, we maintain our target for FLNG project announcements within 2022, and we believe our organization and balance sheet are set up to execute up to 2 to 3 FLNG projects in parallel, subject to the details of each project. Turning to Slide 14 and further elaborating on actions taken in the quarter. On the back of the growing pipeline of FLNG growth projects, we are ramping up both engineering activities and plan to order long lead items for a Mark II FLNG within the second half of this year to safeguard 2025 vessel delivery. The majority of the long lead items in discussion can also be deployed to our other FLNG solutions. The Mark II design has a liquefaction capacity of up to 3.5 million tons. And as described, is based on the conversion of an existing carrier. We have identified and inspected a suitable vessel candidate for that conversion. The yard selection is concluded and the financing term sheet has been received. That term sheet is also not dependent on a charter or long-term off-take if it’s an integrated project. We’re excited about the progress made on the Mark II project and the attractive delivery window that we have gotten confirmation. Together with the interest from charters, which includes ongoing discussions for an integrated field development project and multiple clients for charter alternatives, we’re confident that proceeding with Mark II is the right way for the company going forward. Elaborating on the delivery timeline and why we think early is important, you can see on Slide 15. As discussed on previous quarterly calls, the gas market was tight before the geopolitical situation in Europe. In Q4 of last year, we saw LNG prices above $50 per MMBtu. LNG demand is expected to continue as the world is looking to source stable sources of energy with attractive environmental attributes. There is very limited new liquefaction capacity coming on for the first half of this decade, whilst most of the incremental production comes on from late ‘25 onwards. Hence, early delivery of an FLNG project is increasingly attractive, both from a demand and LNG price point of view. New liquefaction capacity from 2021 to 2030 currently stands at 130 million tons of FID’d or projects under construction. An additional 42 million tons of liquefaction projects are needed between now and 2030 if we are to meet the estimated demand growth for the period. That’s before taking into the accounts the possible effects of Europe and other regions, reducing dependency on single-source Russian gas exports. Interestingly, if we breakdown the anticipated 130 million tons of new liquefaction projects coming online further, about 12 million tons of that volume is expected to be sourced from Russia where the geopolitical situation is likely to add pressure to project execution and timelines. Furthermore, 55 million tons of the 130 million tons in total is expected to come online from U.S. exports. Source cost in the U.S. is currently at $8.5 per MMBtu and long-term forward prices suggest $4 to $5 in gas source cost before liquefaction. In addition to that, most of the U.S. volumes are sold on long-term off-take contracts. Turning to Slide 16, we are encouraged by this development, and we’re furthermore encouraged by the lack of liquefaction projects from what we think is the cheapest gas resource in the world. We mainly focus on African-proven or strengthened gas reserves as we see very favorable characteristics of the 3 key components driving delivery cost of LNG, that’s source costs, liquefaction cost and the shipping distance to the end user. We believe that you can develop a stable source gas price of anywhere between $1 to $3 in lifting cost dependent on the size of the field, that’s significantly cheaper than current and long-term Henry Hub prices. Secondly, Golar’s liquefaction technology has a lower CapEx per ton compared to other floating and shore-based liquefaction solutions. Lastly, African gas is physically a shorter sailing distance to end users, whether the clients are in Europe or Asia. Hence, if you have lower input costs on the three key cost drivers of LNG, we see that as a compelling competitive advantage. If you elaborate that into numbers and turning to Slide 17, this is again a familiar slide that we have presented at earlier occasions. But this time, we’ve adjusted it to describe possible Mark II FLNG growth projects. If you assume a source gas for African projects of $1 per MMBtu, a tolling fee, similar to what we are charging BP ranging between $2 to $3 per MMBtu and shipping cost at $1.50, you can deliver LNG to end users at around $5. If you compare that to both historical and current gas prices, this is a very solid economic proposition. As an illustrative example, we have highlighted some Mark II tolling fee scenarios ranging from $2 per MMBtu in the low end, which is lower than for most the most recent U.S. shore-based liquefaction project, yet they would give Golar a CapEx to EBITDA of around 5x on capital employed, so 20% unlevered return. If we can achieve tolling rates similar to that of Hilli at current commodity prices, the CapEx to EBITDA multiple reduces to 2x capital employed. If you further go closer to the hydrocarbons and work on integrated projects at current gas prices, you currently have payback in less than 6 months. We can now understand our focus on early delivery and going towards the integrated section. We think you can hedge out a lot of the volatility of hydrocarbon prices through forward price fixtures similar to what we have done on our TTF exposure on Hilli. Shifting gears and for the last time, giving an update on our FSRU business, on Slide 19, we have highlighted the two asset disposals that was concluded during the quarter. First, we agreed to sell our steam LNG carrier called Golar Arctic to Snam for €269 million, the transaction entails that Golar will undertake the vessel conversion and deliver the FSRU in Italy. The estimated conversion cost for the unit is around $160 million before the cost of the vessel and contingencies. We expect Snam to give final Notice-to-Proceed towards the end of this year or early next year. This project is very similar to the previous vessel to FSRU conversion when we converted the Golar Viking and sold her to LNG Croatia. The second transaction we announced with Snam was the sale of the FSRU Tundra for $350 million. The transaction was announced and closed on May 31, raising net proceeds to Golar of $193 million. We have agreed to charter Tundra back from the acquisition date until mid-November, and we expect to make an additional positive cash contribution from in this period. We’re also in the final stages of entering into a development agreement where Golar will assist Snam in minor vessel upgrades before the unit is expected to start FSRU operations in the first half of next year. This development agreement will likely add further value to Golar. Turning now to corporate and the earnings potential from our existing asset portfolio. Again, a familiar slide, but increasingly simplified as we are selling off the non-core assets. Our 2021 adjusted EBITDA comprised of Hilli earnings, less G&A, giving us an EBITDA of $74 million. Add to that the commodity upside on Brent and TTF-linked production from Hilli, we expect earnings for her to increase by $220 million on 2023 over 2021 levels. Add to that the contracted EBITDA from Gimi from startup in second half of next year, we expect to have a run rate EBITDA of north of $400 million and subject to commodity prices ranging between $400 to $500. Our net debt position is negative. So we have a net cash position of $0.5 billion. Hence, we think the company is in a very good shape, both on a cash flow basis, debt basis and liquidity basis to be positioned for growth. So finally, to summarize the company highlights on Slide 22. Our key focus is on FLNG growth, and we are targeting an FLNG announcement within ‘22. Before growth, we expect our EBITDA earnings to quadruple from ‘24 over – from ‘21 to ‘24. We have cash and listed securities of $1.5 billion targeted to fund FLNG growth projects and have significant free cash flow to equity generation in the interim. Our book value stands at $2.7 billion, again expected to continue to increase as we are free cash flow to equity positive. Golar has a proud history, celebrating 75 years of existence this year, 50 of which in LNG where we have been a proven market pioneer being a first-mover on FSRU, FLNG and integrated FSRU to power projects. This concludes our Q2 earnings presentation. Thank you for taking time to listen in. And we will now hand it over to the operator for any questions.