Karl Staubo
Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open
Thank you, Eduardo. Turning to FLNG on Slide 13. We are starting to see the effects of higher commodity prices on Hilli earnings. Hilli's adjusted EBITDA increased to 57 million for Q4 on the back of an increase in Brent-linked revenues and billing of $1.9 million of overproduction. We expect Hilli earnings to continue to increase on the back of higher Brent-linked earnings estimated at $17 million for Q1 '22 and the start-up of the previously discussed TTF-linked production from Q1 this year onwards. The unit continues its strong 100% operational utilization and as I alluded to, have offloaded 68 cargoes since its start-up in 2018. Slide 14 elaborates on the embedded upside in the commodity exposure of Hilli tariff. For the last 12 months, Golar's pro rata share of Hilli's EBITDA was $99 million. This is expected to grow by around 2.6x for 2022. On the back of these higher Brent-linked earnings, where Golar generated $2.7 million of EBITDA for every dollar Brent is above 60%. This will end around $80 million in year-over-year earnings. Furthermore, the start-up of our TTF-linked production unlocks an additional $80 million of Golar's pro rata Hill earnings. As Eduardo explained, during the quarter, we hedged Q2 and Q3 TTF gas prices as the summer months are normally the seasonally soft quarters, and we remain open for Q4 2022 TTF gas exposure. Perenco, the charter of Hilli has a onetime 3-year option to declare up to 0.4 million tonnes of increased production from 2023 until end of the contract in July 26. The tariff on this volume is based on the same TTF link at the 0.2 million tonnes of 2022 additional capacity utilization. The option is declarable within end of July this year and Perenco is currently undergoing a drilling campaign to prove up more gas reserves with a target to increase the gas flow to Hilli. Even if forward curves suggest a reduction in the TTF price from today's level, Hilli earnings are sustainable due to the offsetting effect of the higher utilization should Perenco declare their option. Turning to Slide 15 and a Gimi construction update. The unit is now 80% technically complete with 16 million man hours worked to date on the conversion. The reminder of the build is mainly around construction, installation and testing of equipment ahead of the 2023 sail-away and contract start-up. The contract will unlock an annual EBITDA to Golar of $151 million per year every year for its 20-year contract. On Slide 16, natural gas market fundamentals continued to improve for new upstream and liquefaction projects. COVID-related effects have installed new gas upstream infrastructure projects, which has led to an anticipated shortage of LNG supply to meet the continued strong increase in LNG demand. These developments, together with weather effects and ongoing escalation of geopolitical landscape of large natural gas exporters have caused spot and forward gas prices to lift improving economics for LNG upstream projects and also an increasing desire to diversify gas supply sources. We will now turn the attention to shipping and focus on Cool Company, which comprise the majority of our shipping portfolio. On Slide 18, we provide further granularity of the charter profile of our shipping fleets. The light blue color represents our spot market exposure where we're fully covered for Q1 this year, but with an increasing exposure to an anticipated strengthening of LNG freight rates from Q2 this quarter and onwards. In slightly darker blue, we have our floating rate charters, which fluctuate with quoted spot market rates within a band subject to floor and ceiling rates. The bottom two columns represent our fixed and charters options fixtures that generates an average time charter equivalent of just over $60,000 a day, as you can see from the bottom table. Despite short-term headwinds for LNG spot rates, term rates continue at healthy levels, significantly above our 2021 achieved rates. Hence, we expect Cool Company earnings to significantly increase as the fleet recontracts into higher charter parties. On Slide 19, we explained what this could mean in terms of the dividend potential from Cool Company. Cool Company has a clear strategy to distribute quarterly dividends once listed in New York expected later this year. The dividend potential on average spot rates for 2021 of $91,000 a day would equate to a dividend yield of 15% for 2022 or 24% in 2023 as more of the fleet are exposed to higher recontracting rates as we go further out in time. On Slide 20, the LNG freight market has grown by around 7% cumulative aggregate growth for the last 20 years. This is a trend that is expected to continue on the back of new liquefaction projects coming on stream and increasing transportation distances as most of this new capacity is coming on in the U.S., and the fastest-growing demand is in the Far East. U.S. to Far East consumes about double the vessel demand compared to a U.S., Europe round trip. Looking at the supply side on Slide 21. And as previously discussed on our previous earnings calls, new environmental regulations coming into effect from 1st of January 2023, will likely make a large part of the fleet on the water, noneconomical for international long-haul trade. In particular, steam propel vessels built before 2007 are at the heightened risk of exiting international trade corresponding to about 30% of the fleet on the water. The order book now standing at over 160 vessels are mainly built against charters to service new liquefaction projects and only 21 of the 160 ships on order are currently uncommitted. Hence the market backdrop where we have a demand side growing by about 7% a year. The supply side at the risk of seeing 30% of the fleet on the water we made obsolete by new environmental regulations and no ability to increase the supply side well into 2025 due to yard capacity restrictions, bodes well for a tightening of LNG shipping freight rates. We believe Cool Company is well positioned to benefit from this development with an increasing exposure to the spot market. Turning to corporate. Golar was awarded Best ESG Strategy for North America in 2021 by Capital Finance International. We have a history of being an LNG market entrepreneur at the forefront of some of the key technology advances in the LNG industry, including being the first mover into FSR use and later FLNGs. Repurposing of assets and innovation focused on energy efficiency, make financial sense for Golar and its customer and reduces the environmental footprint of LNG. We're grateful to be recognized by CFI for our long-standing efforts in contributing to strengthening LNG's relative competitiveness in the global energy market. Turning to Slide 24. This is a slide familiar to most of you as we have shown this in most of our previously quarter results, but it's now updated for the effects of an of the Cool Company transaction on both our earnings and balance sheet. Starting off with Hilli. As discussed, this unit has an embedded upside, which should see a 2.6x increase in the earnings year-over-year on the back of the commodity exposure and the increased production. Golar's share of net debt on Hilli stands at $317 million at the end of Q4. Gimi is currently under construction, and as such, does not yet generate earnings. She is expected to start her contract in late '23 and will add 151 million of Golar's pro rata share of EBITDA. Q4 debt stands at $287 million where Golar share of remaining CapEx stands at approximately $410 million, where about half will be covered by existing debt facility and half by equity. Our two remaining shipping and FSRU assets generated $24 million of EBITDA during '21, and we expect an increasing attraction of the FSRU Tundra for potential FSRU charters that can increase EBITDA generation and earnings visibility from this unit. Net debt on our two assets combined stand at 187 million at quarter end. Lastly, G&A for '21 came in at negative $18 million in cash and marketable securities of more than 1.1 billion. In sum, we expect earnings to quadruple within '24 from 2021 levels. Total net debt, including remaining CapEx stands at less than 1 billion or about 2x fully invested run rate EBITDA. With our current cash position and contract profile, we can fund new FLNG project, whilst starting a dividend following Gimi contract start-up. So to round off on Slide 25. Through 2021, the group simplification is now executed. We expect a quadrupling of our FLNG earnings from our existing assets from 2024 versus 2021 levels. We have a strong balance sheet position with cash and marketable securities of 1.1 billion and fully delivered net interest-bearing debt of less than 2x. We believe we're uniquely positioned for FLNG growth, and we are confident that we will see a contract award within '22. That concludes our Q4 '21 earnings presentation. Thank you all again for dialing into the call. I would like to turn over to the operator for any questions.