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General Mills, Inc. (GIS)

Q1 2013 Earnings Call· Wed, Sep 19, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the General Mills Fiscal 2013 Results First Quarter Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, Wednesday, September 19, 2012. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kris Wenker, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Madam.

Kristen Smith Wenker

Analyst

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everybody. I'm here with Ken Powell, our CEO; Don Mulligan, our CFO; and Jon Nudi, who is President of our U.S. Snacks division. I'll turn the call over to them in just a minute. First, I've got to cover my usual housekeeping items. Our press release on first quarter results was issued over the wire services earlier this morning and is also posted on our website if you need a copy. We've posted slides on our website, too, that supplements today's prepared remarks. These remarks will include forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions. The second slide in today's presentation lists factors that could cause our future results to be different than our current estimates. And one last note for me, we provided a data page with historical sales and growth rates for our newly organized U.S. Retail division and International region. You can find that data page under the Investors section of our website. And so with that, I'll turn you over to my colleagues, starting with Don.

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst

Thanks, Kris, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning. Slide 4 summarizes our results for the quarter. Sales totaled $4.1 billion, up 5%, and segment operating profit increased 6% to $769 million. These results were led by our International segment, including contributions from acquired businesses. Net earnings totaled $549 million, and diluted earnings per share were $0.82 as reported. These results include a net increase in the mark-to-market valuation of certain commodity positions in grain inventories, along with the one-time tax benefit and restructuring charges. Excluding these items affecting comparability, our adjusted diluted EPS would be $0.66. This was a bit better than we planned, thanks to strong international performance that benefited operating profit and contributed to a lower underlying tax rate. Slide 5 shows the components of our net sales growth. On an as-reported basis, net sales increased 5%, with growth driven by acquisitions. Pound volume contributed 9 points of growth in the quarter, sales mix and net price realization subtracted 2 points of sales growth, and foreign exchange also reduced net sales by 2 points. Excluding acquisitions, net sales were 1% below year-ago levels as reported and up 1% in constant currency. Slide 6 details net sales performance for our newly organized U.S. retail divisions. In total, net sales declined 1%, including the impact of merchandising spending to support new item launches and sharper price points on certain established products. Pound volume was 2% lower in the quarter. This was a sequential improvement from the previous quarter, and it included steady improvement through the last 3 months. Sales for our Bakeries and Foodservice segment declined 2% in the first quarter. Pound volume was up 2%, but that growth was offset by negative price realization mix. Hot breakfast items, snacks and baking mixes led our sales…

Jonathon J. Nudi

Analyst

Thanks, Don. Hello, everybody. It's a pleasure to be on the call this morning. It seems that there's been a lot of investor interest in snack businesses lately. So I'd like to give you an update on our U.S. Snacks portfolio and the growth that we're seeing on our brands. U.S. consumers are snacking more than ever, and consumers have changed what to grab for a quick refuel. Instead of mindless munching, consumers are increasingly looking for options to provide real nutritional benefits. So it's no wonder that Better-for-you snacks is the fast-growing segment in the Snacks category. We define this segment using a variety of Nielsen-measured categories. And retail sales increased 6% fiscal 2012 to reach nearly $30 billion. We see plenty of room for continued growth in this segment. Reported net sales for our Snacks division have grown at an 8% compound rate over the past 3 years and we're up 15% in fiscal 2012, so we're gaining share in this Better-for-you segment. Our Snacks portfolio is split into 3 distinct categories: Grain, Fruit and Savory snacks, as shown on Slide 18. In fiscal 2012, these 3 segments generated $1.6 billion of reported net sales. We have a strong presence in traditional grocery stores, where our pound volume grew 3% last year, with the majority of our Snacks volume that's sold in the faster-growing nontraditional food outlets, such as mass merchandisers, club and dollar stores. For example, club stores represent our largest nontraditional channel. Our pound volume grew 8% there last year as our larger mega-packs represent value to clubs through our consumers. We continue to bring product news [ph] and strong innovation to this channel. Small-store formats like dollar stores are a growth channel too. Here we offer smaller packages and attractive dollar price point that introduces…

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst

Okay. Thanks, Jon, and good morning, everybody. You just heard about the terrific innovation that John and his team have going in our U.S. Snacks business. So I want to going to give you a quick summary of the business trends and the innovation that we're seeing elsewhere at General Mills. Across our U.S. Retail categories, we are seeing pricing moderate and volume improve as we begin to lap last year's significant price increases. As Don mentioned earlier, we still expect inflation in 2013, but at a rate well below the 10% we experienced in 2012. So we do anticipate a more stable food price environment for consumers as we go forward. We're seeing improving trends for our business as well. In the first quarter, General Mills U.S. Retail pound volume declined 2% and demonstrated sequential improvement over last year. Underlying gross margin for General Mills showed sequential improvement as well, and we expect both our volume and gross margin trends to continue to improve in the remaining 9 months of the year. Our confidence reflects the fact that our categories are on trend with consumer demand for great-tasting, healthy and convenient foods, all at a good value. Because they're on trend, our categories are growing. Each of our 10 largest categories generates at least $2 billion in annual retail sales. And with combined sales of over $40 billion, even low single-digit growth on this sales base is significant. We're innovating to drive growth for our brands and our categories. Let me give you a few examples. The gluten-free benefit of our Chex cereals continues to resonate with consumers. Sales of new Apple Cinammon Chex are off to a strong start, and we're reaching consumers with both traditional and digital advertising. In combination, these activities drove a 23% retail sales…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Bryan Spillane with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Bryan D. Spillane - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

Ken, just a question. You had a lot of new product innovation come through in the first quarter, so I guess just 2 questions related to that. First, was there any impact in terms of sales shift meeting? Was there any inventory build or anything that would have sort of inflated sales a little bit more in the first quarter? And then second, just early -- in terms of consumer uptake, consumer receptivity to the new product innovation?

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst

We started to ship most of those products in August. And so you would've seen some build during August, but I would say kind of progressively over that month. But I would say some build, but not a lot in occurring late in the quarter. In terms of the consumer uptake, it's very early days. But it looks like, for instance, Progresso Recipe Starters, looks like that's going to be good. It's off to a good start, obviously. But soup season is in front of us, but our customers certainly like that product, so we feel good about that one. The cereals, I think, went in very well. It got high levels of distribution, and we think that those will do well. And as we've said to you before, we'll have a number of other and additional new cereals coming in January. So we feel pretty good about our new cereal lineup for the year. All the yogurt items went in, and it's early days for those, but they're gaining distribution well. Early returns on Yoplait Greek 100 is that, that is developing very nicely. We're quite pleased with how that one is going. And that's really before the marketing impact really starts to hit on that new item, so we like what we're seeing on that one as well. And then Liberté is just starting a regional role and so it's very early days on that, and we'll report -- we'll give you a more -- in Q2 on Liberté. But generally, we feel quite good about how our new products are going in.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ed Aaron with RBC Capital Markets.

Edward Aaron - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

Just trying to get a better sense of kind of when and to what extent we should really start to see the traction build from the innovation and marketing initiatives that you've talked about. Is it realistic to expect positive growth in your yogurt sales this quarter on both a reported and retail basis?

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

Well, our goal for the year is sales growth in Yoplait. We'll see accelerating performance, improving performance as we go into the second quarter. We have all these new items on shelf. We turn on the advertising and the consumer activity. So that will really begin to hit in the second quarter and we'll continue that in the third quarter, and so our goal would be to see sales growth there.

Edward Aaron - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

And then just one other one, if I could. You said a couple of weeks ago that you still expected Q1 to be down in terms of EPS, and it came in a bit better on international. Did you not have maybe the visibility on that international performance at that point in time? Or am I just maybe being too literal about your comments at back-to-school?

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

Yes. A couple of things broke favorably -- 2 or 3 things broke favorably in the quarter that we only get visibility until -- to the end. International had a strong quarter across a number of markets. China was a significant contributor, for example. But as you can imagine, you're closing the books across 25 different markets, and if they all break a little favorable, it adds up, and that's really what happened in international. So the broad strengths of that business played through. And then the other piece you saw on the tax rate. Some of that was favorably impacted by international or from an earnings mix standpoint. But as you also understand, tax rate can be a little bit volatile just in terms of how you close out open audits, and we have audits across states in different countries. We closed those out during the course of the year. We had some favorable audit closures in the first quarter that benefited the rate as well that again had visibility too, until those are settled. So those are really the 2 big factors as you look at the first quarter. And those 2 together contributed $0.03 or $0.04 to the bottom line.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Alexia Howard with Sanford Bernstein. Alexia Howard - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: Can I just make sure that I understand the mid-single-digit sales and operating profit growth guidance from the base business for the full year? I'm assuming that, that excludes acquisitions. So what I'm trying to understand is what the numbers were on an excluding acquisitions basis this quarter. It looks as though organic sales growth was down a little bit this quarter, and excluding the acquisitions, it looks as though operating profit may have been fairly flat, although that's less clear, even with the decline in the advertising spending and the shipments of new products. If that's right and maybe you can confirm that, then where does the acceleration in the top and the bottom line come from for the rest of the year? Are there particular levers, commodity cost inflation that's going to become more favorable going forward?

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst

Alexia, just to clarify, the mid-single-digit sales operating profit is for our business as we entered the year, so it excludes Yoki, it excludes Yoplait Canada, but it does include Yoplait International in total. The reason that we see it accelerating during the year is a couple of things. As Ken -- as we've said before and as Ken pointed to some data this morning, in the U.S., as we see prices lap our increases and the industry's increases from the last year, we expect volume to stabilize and to solidify, and we're starting to see that in the categories, and so that will benefit us as the year unfolds. Second is, as you point to -- we do expect some deceleration of inflation, although I would caution that with the current drought and movement, there is some more pressure than we had originally anticipated coming into the year, and that will play through in the latter part of the year. We still are in that 2% to 3% range of inflation, but obviously, a bit more pressure given where the markets have moved over the last couple of months. And then we expect to see continued strength in International, as we alluded to the -- not only did it grow quite nicely in the first quarter on an as-reported basis, but if you strip out acquisitions, top line grew 8% on a constant currency basis, and so that provides continued momentum as the year unfolds. And our Bakeries & Foodservice business started the year well, 2% volume growth, 10% profit growth, and that business has -- again, has some really solid momentum in some key customer and product line segments that we'll benefit from as the year unfolds as well. Alexia Howard - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: Great. And then maybe the quick follow-up. Could I ask about how you're seeing the category promotional dynamics in cereals changing? It looks as though Post's price per pound has come down quite a bit in the last couple of months. And how are you responding to that?

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst

Yes. I mean, there are always movements quarter-to-quarter, Alexia. I mean, I think the point that we want to make is, for a variety of reasons, our pressure was quite a bit below what it was a year ago, and this is all about timing, really, and promotional timing. And we knew it was going to be low in June and July, and it was. And so that will restore itself and rebalance as we move into the second, third and fourth quarters of the year. So ours was low. And our merch volume, as a result, was low year-over-year due to timing issues, and that will be -- that will work itself back to a normal promotional profile here as we go into the next 3 quarters.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays.

It's good to see volumes for your categories and for General Mills starting to, as you pointed out, sequentially improve as pricing has kind of moderated. I know there's a lot of discussion over the last couple of quarters about sort of the mystery around why volumes in general had been as weak as they were for the industry. And there were probably a lot of different reasons that were discussed. But the biggest one that most food companies talked about was just the pricing, right, and that combined with the difficult consumer backdrop. Based on what you're starting to see, at least in some of your key categories, I mean, it sounds like you're basically getting at that latter point, which is, it seems like it was primarily the pricing and as that moderates, the volume sort of starts to come back. Does that seem now with what you now see like the most realistic and sensible explanation for what we've seen these last couple of quarters for the industry?

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst · Barclays.

So Andrew, I mean, I think as you know, that is our premise. And we talked about that quite a bit at our year-end meeting in July. And our view is that, okay, we're only a quarter in, but sort of based on the data we're seeing, our view is that's -- that is the data is confirming our premise on what happened and what the outlook is going forward. I mean, clearly, last year, with a very high inflation in the industry, over 10% for us and all the pricing, there's no doubt that, that was the biggest single factor and consumers responded as we predicted they would with lower unit volume sales. So I think we had a chart in our presentation this morning that demonstrated very clearly that as we begin to sequentially lap that period of time, we're seeing the price comparisons moderate and the unit volumes improve for our category. And we are seeing that as well in our business. Now it's not -- this is not a perfect science, and I think it will -- but our belief, our strong belief is that we're going to continue to see that sort of stabilization in consumer prices and recovery of demand as we progress throughout the year.

Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays.

I appreciate that color. And then just a quick follow-up. Don, I apologize if I didn't get this right. Did you mention at the outset that for overall corporate General Mills, that organic sales were up 1% in the quarter? And if I got that wrong, I apologize.

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst · Barclays.

Yes. For overall, 1% on a constant currency basis, minus 1% as reported. So we had a larger than usual drag from ForEx this quarter.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

Jason English - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

I want to go back to the full year guidance of mid-single-digit sales growth. Thanks for the color on kind of what that encompasses. I was thinking about that your base biz comment is suggesting purely organic and it's -- correct me if I'm wrong, but that does include the M&A contribution in the first quarter from Yoplait International?

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Correct.

Jason English - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

So if I were to strip that out and just think about sort of organic for the full year, can you give us any color on what you expect organic to be for the full year?

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Well, I don't have a size [ph] for you that Yoplait International is about $1.2 billion in sales. And we had another couple of months of it this year versus last year.

Jason English - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

And if I calculate it right, kind of based on International, it looks like it's going to add around 1.5 points to the full year. So kind of thinking organically, if I can think about mid-single digits is 4 to 6, take out 1.5, I'm kind of now that 2.5 to 4.5 type range. Am I way off base with that line of thinking?

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Well, I don't have my calculator for me to check your math. But it is obviously going to be a contributor. I couldn't confirm the 1.5 points, though, for it.

Jason English - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

So on drivers of that, kind of getting back to Alexia's question and building on Andrew's there, you had about 1 point in the first quarter. I think Ken mentioned that he's expecting the pricing to be, I think, a lot more stable, which I'm interpreting to be kind of flattish as we progress through the year. That's quite a bit of volume acceleration. Where are you expecting to get that volume acceleration? And what gives you the confidence that it's going to come through?

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Well, I think, Jason, as we continue to see these consumer prices moderate, we do expect our volume to improve continuously over the course of the year. So we are expecting that broadly across the portfolio. We have a number of new products that we're going to be launching, as you know, and the early returns on those is that they're going to be good contributors. So we are expecting our volume in sales trends to improve somewhat in U.S. Retail over the course of the year, and we're very much expecting that to happen.

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

The other thing I would add, Jason, is that as we talked in the first quarter, we saw a 2% volume growth in Brands on the Go -- or Bakeries & Foodservice, excuse me, offset by some index pricing that will unfold differently. As the year unfolds, that will be additive to sales, but the volume, we feel good about. International has consistently driven low single digit volume growth, did it again in the first quarter, as we said, 8% constant currency growth. And while we focus on pricing in the U.S., I thought we've said back [ph], we still get pricing in international markets, again, more in developed markets than -- in the developing than the developed markets, but we're getting pricing in, so there will be some huge [ph] benefit in international from pricing that we'll see as the year unfolds. So really, what we're talking about is turning our U.S., our old business, from what was negative 4% and 5% growth last year for volume up to flat and slightly positive as the year unfolds.

Jason English - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

One last just housekeeping question. The interest expense was a little bit lighter than I thought this quarter and that's just probably a mathematical error on my part. But it sounds like the balance sheet moved around a little bit post the end of this quarter. Can you update us on your expectation for interest expense for the full year?

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Yes. We expect interest expense to be up low single digits, inclusive of, obviously, the acquisition of Yoki. Obviously, we're getting a little benefit from the lower short term rates. And I think that probably everybody is, because we're going to stay low for a while. And you might have seen a touch to that come through in the first quarter.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Eric Katzman of Deutsche Bank.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. A couple of questions, I guess following up on the Alexia, Andrew, Jason theme. Isn't the fact that the promotion was more aggressive in the first quarter one of the reasons why the core sales were a bit lower and you kind of expect that to moderate and that's what's also going to be a contributor to sales?

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst

Eric, maybe you clarify a little bit. When you say promotion was more aggressive, I mean, are you talking about category promotion or competitive or how -- what -- I'm not...

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

No, I thought you said, Ken, that you had -- you'd cut back on advertising, which is an SG&A item, but you promoted more aggressively, which limited your net pricing contribution in the fiscal first quarter, right?

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst

Yes.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Okay, so...

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst

Well, I mean, what I would say is -- actually, in Yogurt, for instance, we promoted more aggressively in the first quarter. We saw that -- we saw sequential improvement in core movement over the course of the quarter, and we think that those core brands will continue to improve as we get uptake on that activity, and then we'll add new products to that. And we think that, that combination will lead to continued improvement in our yogurt business. In our cereal business, for instance, our merch -- as I said, our merchandising activity was light compared to year ago, and that led to merch volume declines. And so we'll see a more normal level of merchandising in cereal as we go over the -- into the second and third quarters, and that will, we believe, result in strengthening volume in that business. So it's really, Eric, in the first quarter, there were a number of moving parts on that -- on the merchandising front. As we move into the second quarter, we expect solid levels of merchandising, good levels of new products, and that, in combination, is going to lead to stronger unit volume.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. Second question. Now that we have all outlet data, theoretically, that's supposed to be a bit better kind of indication on consumption, and yet the -- for, like, U.S. Retail, the IRI Nielsen data actually showed some pretty significant weakness in your business. I got a bunch of calls from investors worried about your results for the quarter based on that. And yet your volume was only down a little bit, a couple of points, much better than I think the IRI Nielsen data showed. What is the difference? Maybe this gets back to Bryan's question initially.

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst

Yes. Well, I think some of it is just the timing of shipments of new products, and so some pipeline building in the latter few weeks of the quarter. And some of it, I think, Eric, is merchandising pressure across some of our categories in the first quarter, which was not where we wanted it to be. And so we saw a weaker incremental volume for merchandising in those categories. And we expect that to -- we expect that balance to be restored as we move into the second and third quarter.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And then last question, Don. On Yoki, you had -- so now you've acquired the business, can you give us maybe a little bit more color on the kind of the mix impact from that? When Yoplait was brought in, the mix shift in International segment was a massive negative. How does Yoki impact the segment's mix? And also, is there any adjustment to assumed goodwill and the P&L effect of that with it coming through?

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst

Yes. We'll obviously give more color when we close Q2, when we have a quarter results in our books. But let me give you a little bit of flavor now. As we talked before, Yoki is about $0.5 billion business. It will be in our results for 3 quarters of the year. It does drive a low double-digit operating margin. Now that is on a, if you will, on an operating basis, we will have some depreciation, a step-up -- inventory step-up, some transaction costs this year, some intangible -- a small bit of intangible amortization as well that will be a drag on the results, non-cash drag, but a drag on the reported results. So -- and that, combined with, obviously, the acquisition costs, is what leads to the EPS dilution expectation of $0.02 to $0.03. But from an operating standpoint, you can think about it as a $500 million business that drives low double-digit cash margins for us. As far as kind of within the P&L, as you can imagine, it's the emerging market business, it's delivered margin -- gross margin, excuse me, is lower than our company average, and so you will see some dilution again. We'll give more quantification to that when we release Q2.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

And is it -- it's products, I assume. Are they a negative mix driver again in the segment just like Yoplait was?

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst

Negative mix in what respect?

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

In that, I guess, like if you've had, I don't know, a 20% negative mix swing as you've reported international, including Yoplait International?

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst

Of price...

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Price mix.

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst

It's a good question. I don't have an answer off the top on that one. Maybe we'll just follow-up on that one.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Ken Goldman with JPMorgan. Kenneth Goldman - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: We're seeing, at least anecdotally on shelf, some of your larger competitors in Greek discounting somewhat heavily right now. First of all, is that putting some more pressure on you if you're seeing the same thing? And second, are you doing anything maybe to counter that? I realize you're putting in a lot of new products and so forth. But doesn't that put a little bit more pressure on yours, maybe not -- that not right the really way to look at it, given that you have so many new products on the shelf, and maybe it's -- that'll -- you'll disrupt the category a little bit. I'm just curious how you think about pricing in Greek right now and what's happening?

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst

So Ken, I think that our expectation for the Greek segment as it really becomes mainstream and there's capacity and scale -- and everybody, we're all kind of focusing on productivity and all the stuff that we do really well. I mean, our expectation is that those prices will come down over time. And I think that we're seeing that. I think that's sort of natural, in a way, almost inevitable. Having said that, we love those typically over $1.00 price points on average for Greek. They look really good to us, especially compared to many other yogurt prices, which are kind of $0.50, $0.60, $0.70. So we like the price point. And we think that now being deeply into it, with multiple product offerings and more to come, we think that's going to be a good business model for us. And whether it's $0.99 or $1.09 or whatever it is, we think we can do just fine with that. Kenneth Goldman - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: And then one more. You dropped advertising and media spending by 7% this year and that was on top of, I think, a 7% increase a year ago. So just using some simple math for a second, your dollar ad spending is essentially flat over the last 2 years, but your sales dollars are up 15% over that same time. I realize it's just one quarter, and you're taking ad spending up again shortly. But still, that's a quarter of the year where you deemphasized ad spending pretty heavily. So is that something maybe we should expect more of going forward? Were you a little more strategic from quarter to quarter in whether you're putting money into deals versus consumer marketing? Or is this sort of a one-off or maybe it just happened to be with the timing of where the new products were?

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst

Well, there are a lot of moving parts in that question. But look, so let me -- let -- well, but let me -- it's a good question, and I understand the intent behind it. But let me sort of -- let me make a first comment. The sales increases over the last couple of years are largely driven by that kind of inflation-driven pricing. So I just think that it's important to keep that in mind. But stepping back a bit, I think the larger context for us on advertising is that we've increased our levels very, very significantly over the last several years. I think we're up close to 50%. I think some of the tracking services have us now as the largest advertiser in the industry. And we have very, very solid shares of voice in the vast majority of our categories. In many cases, they're increasing. So we're very committed to advertising. It drives our business. But I think, as we've said several times over the last year, I mean, we're -- our goal at these levels is to kind of in line with sales or to be roughly at this level. And you're right. As we enter a period where there's -- the merchandising environment is very dynamic, as we saw in the first quarter this year, we do want to make sure that we're paying very close attention to what we need to do to be in the right value zone in terms of price points and merchandising. I think it's really important for us to do that given the mindset of the consumer these days. So we are going to be making tactical trade-offs there. But I will tell you, having said that, our advertising is and will be at very, very high levels and at very competitive, very strong share of voice. But we want to keep that value component. We want to be focused on that as well and make sure that our products are in the right zone.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Priya Ohri-Gupta with Barclays.

Priya Ohri-Gupta - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Wanted to see if your thought process was still consistent around that increase in the quarter and whether you're planning to term a portion of that out to -- by coming to the markets? And sort of what that percentage of the 1-1 increase could be.

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst

We did see, obviously, a market increase in our commercial paper balance over the term, given that we were prepping for the Yoki acquisition. We do expect to determine out, whether it will be later this calendar year, early next calendar, it's still to be determined. But either way, we are -- we will be in the market sometime during this fiscal year to a fairly sizable amount.

Priya Ohri-Gupta - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. Should we assume that the bulk of that gets termed out? Or should we still anticipate some of it gets paid down over the course of this year?

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst

It'll get paid down. It's not only going to be termed down. We will absolutely pay down the debt, a portion of the debt. Again, as we said when we announced Yoki, our plan as we did with Yoplait as we will with Yoki is that we're going to finance this at our normal capital structure mix, which is a combination of cash and debt. And so you'll see the debt being paid down over the course of the year.

Priya Ohri-Gupta - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. And then just lastly, as you think about the M&A environment just broadly, can you speak to what sorts of assets are available at this point in time, and sort of has that number decreased and how are valuations looking?

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst

We considered to be very active in looking. We've obviously done some pretty sizable, and even one not sizable, strategic deals, in terms of our businesses that are at Yoplait, Yoki, which got us a good position in the category and in a certain critical geography. And then with Food Should Taste Good in the U.S., which put us in a very different position in a category and particularly around a channel and a consumer need. So we like what we've done to date. They all helped grow our business in key platforms and certainly help accelerate our business, our growth as well. So we'll continue to look, as we've talked before. Emerging markets is a focus for us. We have a great organically growing business in China. We now have an equally sizable business in Brazil with a similar growth profile. But there are other emerging markets where we have small footprints, India for example, that we'd look to -- will be looking to increase our size. And then in the U.S. and more broadly developed markets, Jon outlined a compelling case for Better-for-you snacking and that's an area that's of intense interest to us and is where we've added some businesses over the last couple of years, and we'll continue to look in that area.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Robert Moskow - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Don, I think you mentioned more pressure coming from the drought on your cost side in the back half of the year. Can I understand, like -- your talk about the cost, I guess, of the 2012 calendar year crop. Does that cost of the crop being higher flow through into your fiscal '14 as well, because you kind of have to wait for next year's crop before you can get kind of a lower cost of grain? And maybe I'm overstating the impact because I know your Grain is only 5% to 10% of your cost. I'm just trying to figure out if the drought will flow through into fiscal '14.

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst

It's a good question, Robert, and I'll give you some thoughts, and I think Don wants to jump in as well. And I think the short answer now is, it's something that we have to be thinking about, because we will -- with the drought, in grains like, clearly, corn, we'll exit the year with very low stocks, and so very low stocks which signal that even more volatility than usual in the corn crop depending on how it starts to develop. But it's too early to say. I mean, we kind of have to see how things go around the world and just how the harvest begins to build develop as we go into F '14. But we will be -- we'll have to watch that very, very closely. Don, I don't know if you would add anything to that.

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst

I would just -- as I mentioned, we had 75% coverage this year, so to the extent we have an impact, as I mentioned, it will be as the year unfolds in the back part of the year, which is putting a little bit of pressure on that part of the year but within the range that we anticipated. And obviously, we're not going to give F '14 guidance, but I think that Ken touched on a couple of the dynamics that we contemplate. The only thing I want to jump in is Rob, thank you for remembering it's 5% to 10% of our inputs. That's usually something I have to remind the market of. Robert Moskow - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Okay. Let me ask a quick follow-up, if I could. Meals are up, I think, only 2%, but Progresso was up much more than that. Can you talk about what's down in meals and when do you think you'll lap those comparisons?

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst

So soup, as you said, we had a very strong start to the year in soup. I mean, we've got a good proposition there with very good innovation and very good marketing, and so we have good momentum there. Mexican food is progressing, is doing okay. Our issue is skillet meals, helpers, which are down right now. And we think we know what we have to do to correct what's happening in that business. And that's an issue of the right value for the consumer and the right marketing message. And we don't think we're all the way too bright, frankly, on either one of those things right now. But we think we know what we have to do to stabilize and restore momentum on that business and, obviously, that's something that we're going to be focusing on here as we move into the balance of the year.

Kristen Smith Wenker

Analyst

We are up to time at this point, so I think I'll just say, those of you who are in queue, I'm sorry we didn't get to you. If I can be of help, please give me a call.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation, and ask that you please disconnect your line.