Earnings Labs

General Mills, Inc. (GIS)

Q2 2013 Earnings Call· Wed, Dec 19, 2012

$34.67

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Wednesday, December 19, 2012. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kris Wenker, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Kristen Smith Wenker

Analyst

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everybody. So it's a week before Christmas, and our numbers are good. More on that in a moment. But first, if I could, I want to make sure you've gone to our website. We put slides there that shed some additional light on the progress we've made through the 6 months to date. Our release is there, too. If you found them, that's great. We do plan to make comments on the future today. Slide 2 lists risk factors that could get in our way. Let me now turn you over to Don, Ian and Ken. I wish the happiest of holidays to you, your family and friends.

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst

Thanks, Kris. Good morning, everybody. I'll second those holiday greetings, but I will keep my remarks to prose today. Thank you for joining us. As you see on Slide 4, our second quarter results are summarized there. Net sales grew 6% to nearly $4.9 billion. New businesses, particularly Yoki in Brazil and Yoplait Canada, contributed 4 points of net sales growth in the quarter. Segment operating profit grew faster than sales, up 10%, reflecting a higher gross margin and a 3% decrease in advertising and media expense in the period. All 3 of our business segments posted operating profit gains. Net earnings totaled $542 million, and diluted earnings per share were $0.82 as reported. Excluding certain items affecting comparability, our adjusted diluted EPS would be $0.86, up 13% from last year's second quarter. Slide 5 shows the components of our net sales growth. Pound volume contributed 7 percentage points of growth in the quarter. That's primarily the addition of Yoki and Yoplait Canada. Sales mix and net price realizations subtracted 1 point of sales growth. Foreign exchange had no impact on sales growth for the company in total. Slide 6 shows net sales growth by segment. For U.S. retail, pound volume and net sales grew 2% in the quarter. This performance was led by our Snacks, Small Planet Foods and Meals divisions. Net sales of our Bakeries and Foodservice business declined 1% with pound volume down 2% due to lower bakery flour sales. These sales declines on index-priced items offset gains on cereal, snacks and frozen breakfast items. International segment net sales rose 19% as reported and 22% on a constant currency basis with good growth across all 4 geographic regions. While these results do include contributions from Yoki and Yoplait Canada, our established businesses also performed well. Excluding new…

Ian R. Friendly

Analyst

Thanks, Don, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate the chance to give you an update on our U.S. Retail segment. Our top line trends improved in the second quarter. Pound volume stabilized in September and October and increased at a mid-single digit rate in November. Net sales for the quarter increased 2%. The acquisition of Food Should Taste Good, combined with solid established business performance, drove double-digit growth in our Small Planet Foods division. Sales for our Snacks division also increased at a double-digit rate, led by strong product innovation. Progresso soup and sauces paced growth in our Meals division. Sales for our Frozen Foods division matched year-ago levels, while Baking and Big G divisions sales declined modestly. And while U.S. yogurt sales declined, clearly the rate of decline is moderating. I'll provide you with more details on that in a few minutes. As shown on Slide 17, our second quarter U.S. retail performance reflected good sequential improvement. Volume, net sales and segment operating profit performance all improved versus the first quarter. We've got a number of great initiatives in the market right now, with more planned for the back half of the year. I'll highlight a few examples, starting with some of our seasonal favorites. The holidays are in full swing, and we're helping consumers bake up some favorite treats. On our refrigerated dough business, our Let The Making Begin campaign is designed to inspire consumers. Response has been terrific. Baseline sales have increased for both Pillsbury crescent rolls and biscuits since we launched this campaign in October, and we added over 0.5 points of market share in November. And Betty Crocker is back with her red hot holiday trends. Tips for making a perfect 18-layer velvet cake, hidden-surprise cookies and many other recipes are available online at bettycrocker.com.…

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst

Thanks, Ian, and good morning, everyone. You just heard Ian describe some of the product innovation and marketing efforts we have underway in U.S. retail. And I want to give you now an update on the other 2 segments, starting with Bakeries and Foodservice. As you can see on Slide 34, net sales for this segment are down 2% through the first half. That's primarily due to negative price realization. We had lower bakery flour prices in the first half. However, first half operating profit is up 18%, driven by lower wheat costs in our cost of goods, favorable mix and grain merchandising earnings. This 18% profit growth builds on a strong track record of earnings growth for this segment. Over the past 5 years, segment operating profit has grown at a 14% compound rate. Grain merchandising activities have played a part, but primarily, this growth reflects our strategy of focusing on the most profitable products in the fastest-growing foodservice channels, and we continue to follow this winning strategy in fiscal 2013. For example, our sales to U.S. convenience stores are captured in this business segment. We have a great lineup of new snack products hitting C-store shelves, including Nature Valley protein bars, Gardetto's snack crackers and Betty Crocker dessert bites. We're launching Yoplait Greek 100 yogurt in a variety of foodservice outlets, and we recently introduced a Greek version of Yoplait ParfaitPro. As you can see on Slide 36, this product gives foodservice operators an easy way to prepare layered yogurt parfaits. Sales for Yoplait ParfaitPro have been growing nicely, and the addition of a Greek variety will keep the momentum going. Sales for our frozen breakfast products are increasing at a double-digit pace, led by our line of Pillsbury breakfast items in school cafeterias. And we recently introduced…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

I'm sorry upfront I can't pose my question in a more creative poetic form, but I'll give this a shot. Just wanted to touch briefly on sort of the price mix outlook for U.S. retail as we go into the second half. Pricing was flat...

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst

Could you repeat that, Andrew?

Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Sure. I wanted to touch on price mix for U.S. retail in the second half. Pricing was flat in the second quarter, down sequentially from up 1 in the first quarter, I believe. And obviously, you're lapping some pricing, and you've got your increased focus on some key price points in certain categories that you've discussed. Would you anticipate price remaining flattish in this segment in the fiscal second half as you still have inflation to deal with? Or is there a concern or plan that price mix could turn even modestly deflationary, given the positive volume response you're seeing in response to your strategy?

Ian R. Friendly

Analyst

Andrew, it's Ian. I think, over the entire portfolio, we'd expect it more to be relatively stable over the second half. There may be some select categories where it will be modestly down, primarily in categories where our merchandising efforts are more back-half loaded. But I think the general trend for us would be relatively flat.

Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Got it. Okay. And your -- I mean it's hard to say, but your anticipation of kind of what you're seeing more broadly in the space around -- as the industry starts to lap some of the pricing, we're seeing volumes come back a bit, which is probably nice to see on a bunch of different fronts. But so far, would your anticipation be that the industry is still likely going to have some inflation, that there's a general sort of rational behavior, as best you can tell? I know it changes a lot by category.

Ian R. Friendly

Analyst

Yes. What we're seeing still is, I think, over the entire category through December and what I expect in the second half as well is very modest but inflationary trends, both on the consumer prices as we see it so far. And also as you look at input prices, I think some of the impact of the drought will obviously weigh on all competitors' minds as we look at what can be done in the market. So I think stability to very, very modest inflation is probably a decent outlook.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Eric Katzman with Deutsche Bank.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Couple of questions. I guess, first one, lob this one in to Don. A number of your competitors have changed their pension accounting to mark-to-market, and that's been pretty materially beneficial to their reported earnings. I recognize it's not necessarily a cash item near term. But do you have any estimate on what if General Mills were to go to a mark-to-market approach, what that would do to your -- roughly, what that would do to your reported EPS?

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Eric, I appreciate the questions. I don't have any figure for you on that regard. We are very satisfied with our pension accounting. We try to be very clear externally in terms of what is moving that expense number. And obviously, we make clear, as you alluded to, that it's a noncash number. And so we'll continue to provide that clarity, but we have no plans at this time to change our reporting practices.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Okay. And then with the -- I guess, then to switch over to just Yoki for a second. With the devalue -- or with the Brazilian real depreciation and I guess maybe the expectation of Venezuela now devaluing that you've put in, are you -- I guess, how much of a drag -- between the Yoki dilution and then the deval, how much of a drag is that on earnings this fiscal year?

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Well, let's separate the 2 because with Yoki, it would strictly be translation. And our total expectations for foreign exchange is, year-to-date, it’s been relatively neutral on EPS, and we don't see that necessarily changing as the year unfolds for our total portfolio. Venezuela is a different issue. Because of the accounting treatment for a hyperinflationary country like Venezuela, there's a balance sheet implication as well. And so as we've seen consensus analyst estimates of what that devaluation will be --it's estimated in the range of 45 to 50 from the studies that -- 45% to 50% from the studies we've seen and that it’s again expected to happen sometime in early calendar 2013, we've estimated the impact to us and factored that into our outlook, and it will be a couple of cents drag on our EPS this fiscal year.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Okay. And so no -- I don't know, maybe I missed this, but no change to what Yoki's dilution was initially expected?

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

No.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Okay. And then last question, I'll pass it on. I guess, to Ian. You noted that the yogurt, I guess, retail sales were down 5, and yet you had a fair amount of positive commentary and slides that showed improvement. Is the difference between what I assume is better volume -- you took a price cut on core Yoplait. Is that why the dollar sales are down?

Ian R. Friendly

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Indirectly, Eric. The thing that we restored was merchandising at our traditional price points on Yoplait. So it wasn't a price list reduction. But effectively, on our core cup business, it is getting our prices back in line with the competitive set. And so as you noted, that has an impact on the dollar side and a very positive impact on the unit side.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Okay. So a couple of points. Basically subtracting from promotion from the sales, but volume was -- was volume flat or up in yogurt? Could you say?

Ian R. Friendly

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

I could tell you it got progressively better in yogurt. And as I showed on the chart, our turns, which is net of distribution, our turns became nicely positive on our core cup business.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of David Driscoll with Citi Research.

David Driscoll - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst · Citi Research.

Wanted to ask a little bit more about U.S. volume trends. You guys have a lot of categories and a lot of insight into the U.S. grocery market. When you think about the year-ago period where we had such a warm winter on your -- and maybe the effect on the soup operation, are you seeing evidence that would suggest that we will continue to see a real positive trend line in terms of the progression of volumes maybe for the next couple of quarters, part of it being related to the year-ago winter, maybe another part of it simply related to how weak volumes were across U.S. grocery over the past maybe 5 or 6 quarters? So any thoughts there would be helpful.

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst · Citi Research.

David, it's Ken. So Ian says I get to start this one. But -- so it wasn't -- I mean, the weather last year was certainly or likely a factor for soup sales because we know that, that's a little bit weather-related. But by far, the dominant factor over last year was the pricing that we began to take early in the calendar year, which had all the effects that you're very well aware of. We had high inflation, we took very significant price increases, and that resulted in a volume impact across many of our categories. And so that was, I think, the big event of our last fiscal year. And as we adjust those prices tactically, as we said in the presentation, really to restore the gap where it needed to be restored, we're seeing those businesses respond as we thought that they would. We're seeing baselines strengthen, and we're getting the merchandising lift as well. So it's really more about the pricing and inflation dynamic of the last 2 years that is driving the fundamental trends in our categories.

David Driscoll - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst · Citi Research.

Then just one follow-up on cereal. Can you comment on your strategies in terms of -- historically, I think General Mills has been very, very good at introducing cereals that really had high value to them. They really -- you’re really not focused on competing at the low end of the market. And just given where some of your competitors have gone, is there any need for you to rethink that strategy, given the consumer environment, what your competitors are doing? Or do you still want to really put the new products out there that are margin-positive to the cereal franchise? Is that still the core of how we should think of General Mills?

Ian R. Friendly

Analyst · Citi Research.

I think our strategy hasn't been so much a high-priced one. It's been in the value-added area. But cereal overall represents such a good value to the consumer. I think it really gets down to, "Are the benefits relevant?" But again, if you look at the price point of our various Cheerios extensions, I think you'd see that they're very competitive within the category. So we don't look at that lens. I don't view that we need to be in ultra-discounted cereal products. But at all times, we're very cognizant of making sure our new cereals represent a good value and in line with the rest of the category. We're not really trying to stretch it up either.

David Driscoll - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst · Citi Research.

I suppose, Ian, the only thing I know is that the average price of the General Mills cereal portfolio is the highest of the major cereal producers. So I always think of you as much more of a value-added cereal maker, and I’m just trying to assess if there was any change in the strategy given the trends…

Ian R. Friendly

Analyst · Citi Research.

Not really. I mean, that's always been true, and some of that has to do with -- historically, with portfolio makeup because we were in a bit light -- because a lot of our portfolio is Cheerios, which is based in puffed products, which those analyses tend to be done on a weight basis. And so in general, it's always shown us to be a bit more higher priced per ounce. But I would say that's a historical legacy, not anything we're trying to push one way or the other.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Grainger with Morgan Stanley.

Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

So for Don, I guess, just a few questions or clarifications on the full year outlook. You mentioned mid-single digit sales growth for the full year, and when you've talked about that in the past, you've characterized it as being excluding Yoki and Yoplait Canada. Is that still intended to be a base business sales growth number or overall? And I guess, the second question would just be when we think about the favorability to numbers in the second quarter, can you give us any more granularity on perhaps what's the prize to the upside versus your original expectations? And given that you're not raising or expanding the range that much for the full year, what are some of the headwinds beyond Venezuela and inflation that we should take into account? Is it lower gross margin than perhaps we may be thinking of or just the phasing of marketing spend?

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Sure. I'll touch on both of those, sales first. The sales guidance is all in. If you look at our trends year-to-date and then look at the balance of the year, we see our full year expectation at mid-single digits for total company sales. As far as our performance in the first half, as we mentioned, we did slightly outperform our plan. A few factors drove that. Clearly, the international momentum that we've seen has been -- continues to be very robust. Our Bakeries and Foodservice business, particularly the mix of products and channels that we're selling, was favorable to our expectations. Across the company, we knew it was going to be a challenging year, and I think everybody has just kind of made sure, from an expense standpoint, we've managed that appropriately. That’s had some benefit. And then interest rates and tax rates have played in our favor. Interest rates because of the market, tax rates because of some timing of discrete items that we have every year that we had baked into our full year forecast with some other favorable items hit earlier in the year that we had anticipated. So those are a number of factors that ended up accumulating to a favorable result in the first half. In the second half, we've noted a couple of things. One, inflation will be higher than our original expectations. That's backloaded because we had some hedge positions that covered us in the front half, but the drought costs from last summer we'll start seeing come through in the second half. So you'll see gross margin -- we'll see some gross margin pressure. Tax rates, again, we're -- we had -- from a phasing standpoint, we had some favorability in the first half that will normalize in the second half, and still, we’ll get to our 33% tax rate for the full year. And then, as I mentioned, the devaluation of the bolivar, which is -- will be a couple of cent drag in the back half as well. So kind of take that all into consideration, that gives us confidence to increase our guidance by the -- increase the range up to plus $0.02 from our original guidance.

Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Okay. And just 2 really quick follow-ups. If the sales number is all in, does that imply that international is lower than your original expectations or that the acquisitions are less incremental? And then on the interest expense, is this quarter's number sort of a run rate going forward?

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

I wouldn't point to any one area. Certainly, our -- the new businesses that we're bringing in are coming in just as we planned, so I certainly wouldn't highlight those. It's a tough environment, and we’ve set some -- we thought were reasonable sales plans. We're delivering largely against those. But we're -- it's a little bit short on the top line, but we're ensuring that the bottom line comes in. That's what I'd say about there. In terms of interest rates, we came to the year assuming that all in, they'd be up a bit. It is likely that it is -- on a full year basis, our interest expense will be down a little bit year-over-year. And again, that's attributable to both the timing of any long-term issue we do, as well as the marketplace rates.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

Jason English - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Innovation. I wanted to talk quickly on innovation. You've brought a very large slate to the market recently, and you're highlighting some new items that are going to come in January, many of which look fairly compelling. I think in the past you've talk about innovation as a percentage of your sales on a rolling 3-year basis. Can you update us on where you stand for that metric now and how it's been trending recently?

Ian R. Friendly

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Yes. This is Ian, Jason. As it relates to at least the U.S. portfolio, and I don't think it's too different for the company, but I'll let Ken comment on that, we target somewhere between, on an annual basis, 4.5% to 5%, so that's what we typically talk on an annual. But if you want to do 3 year, you could multiply that out. And we're right on track with that. In fact, our -- I would say our percent of business coming from new products has been pretty strong and robust for us, and so that is generally where we want to be. And Ken, I don't know if there's a statistic you want to quote for that.

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

No, no. 4% to 5% is what we target, and we think we'll be very much in that range, Jason. I mean, we're also very focused on -- another metric for us is incrementality. So we want to make sure that we're launching products that are bringing new consumers into their franchise, and we're -- we've steadily improved that number. Margin is another key metric for us, and we want to make sure that the business model is sound for all the new products that we're launching. And so we have very good metrics and discipline about the quality of the new products that we launched, and we're very much in the range. And as you said, we're pleased with what we launched in the first half. We like what we've got in the second half. We think the new cereals, Honey Nut Medley Crunch, we think, will be very good. The new Fiber One product we think is good. We're very happy that we're going to be bringing 2 more new flavors to Yoplait Greek 100. As you heard Ian mention, that is off to quite a nice start, and consumers love variety in the yogurt category. So we're getting back to them as quickly as we can, and so it offers them variety. It will also give us increased visibility and holding power at the shelf. So that becomes a virtuous cycle for us. So we're generally pleased with our new product performance so far this year and have -- we'll be continuing the momentum here as we go into the second half.

Jason English - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Just to make sure I understand that metric, does that only account for the contribution from the current year initiatives? Or does it also account for the leakage from any erosion on last year's launches as you lap them?

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

It's really the launch -- it accounts for the launch within that year.

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

It also does account, Jason, for erosion, so it's a net impact, not the total impact.

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Yes. It's an incremental number. And with erosion, if you wanted to accumulate it over a 3-year period, it would be in the low-double digits. It's going to be 4% to 5% a year, and if you do it over 3 years, it's going to be in that kind of 11%, 12% range.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel, Nicolaus. Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: I just had 2 questions for you. The first one, if I could ask maybe, of Ian, on the Yoplait business. I wanted to ask about -- you've really stabilized the market share, that's as we track it from IRI or Nielsen, and you certainly have some developments on core cup and good developments on Greek. So I wanted to ask if you expect your sequential market share to continue to grow, especially as more of these products go into the market. And then related to that, do you foresee Yoplait sales growing for the year in 2000 -- fiscal '13?

Ian R. Friendly

Analyst

Yes. Well, thank you for that, and I suppose I should switch my data to IRI data because, at least from my standpoint, we haven't quite stabilized our share yet. But thank you for that. But it is getting -- what you said is quite true. It is getting sequentially better, and I expect it in the back half to continue to get sequentially better. It's a very volatile category. I think the jury is out. We'll have to look in May to see if -- for the year, how it all nets out. I would expect that every period in the back half gets better. As I shared in my remarks, our Greek business seems to be really gaining nice traction, and our core business is stabilizing well. So I'm guardedly optimistic around our share in the back half. But I think we're still kind of progressing from what had been a more challenging place. And the good... Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: If I could follow on -- I'm sorry.

Ian R. Friendly

Analyst

Sorry, Chris. The other good thing that's important and hard to predict in some ways is all of this activity by us and competitors is a great stimulant for a very vibrant category growth. And so that will be the other variable in all of this is how quick the yogurt category grows, which I would expect should be pretty good. Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Okay. And just a quick follow-up for that, Ian, would be that would you expect the progress you're making in Greek with a lot of new products, as well as the progress in core cup, any one of those to be the bigger driver of your sequential share progress? Is one opportunity bigger than the other?

Ian R. Friendly

Analyst

Well, in the case of core cup, I think it's more about stabilizing because that has been losing share as Greek came to the market. It had to come from something, and it came from the largest player, which was our core cup business. So stabilizing that, I think, prevents the minus, and I think the plus comes from the innovation, which is largely in the Greek category, although not entirely. Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: All right, okay. And then quick follow-up, Don, for you. Can you say what inflation was year-to-date? Just to give a little perspective on the degree of inflation for the second half, we can kind of back into that then roughly. Is it possible to talk about that?

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst

It would be a little bit below our full year projections in the first half, not tremendously below, but slightly below.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Robert Moskow with Crédit Suisse.

Rachel Nabatian

Analyst

It's actually Rachel in for Rob. So my question is on the soup and cereal categories, which seem to have been more rational in recent months with innovation and less promotion. So what's your visibility on that into 2013? And do you think we've found new equilibrium here where there could be more category and volume growth?

Ian R. Friendly

Analyst

Well, this is Ian. On -- let me separate those 2. We're delighted with the soup category. Our business is strong. We focused fairly hard on part of the category -- the growing part of the category, the ready-to-serve part of the category. And we do think it's pretty rational, and it's about providing consumers great-tasting products and benefits. And we do think it's fairly rational in how it's playing out, and we're seeing a lot of strength in our business. So very pleased with that part of the soup category. Cereal is also, I would say, largely rational. It was a bit more promotional in the first half in terms of frequency of promotion, but I wouldn't characterize it as irrational. And as I said earlier, I think given the cost structure of the grain complex from the drought last year, I think it will remain highly rational in the back half. And it is good to see, I think, the major competitors bringing good innovation to market and competing largely on that basis.

Rachel Nabatian

Analyst

That's good to hear. And then just I have a follow-up. I was curious to hear your strategy on the Frozen Food category. It seems to have been challenging for competitors and then for frozen pizza in particular. So with that category, on one hand, there's frozen vegetables, which have more of a health and wellness aspect, and then there's frozen pizza, which has the benefit of targeting value seekers. So on which end of the spectrum would you say that you guys are planning to focus?

Ian R. Friendly

Analyst

Well, I think in frozen, it's such a big area of activity. It's been a part that has been slower at retail this past year, to be fair, across frozen. But you really have to almost look at it segment by segment to talk about what's going on. And then I think you've characterized it reasonably well. For us, the vegetable part, it's a very big category, a bit lower growth, but the innovation, when it comes through, helps a lot, and it’s very much on trend, which is a good thing. Other parts, pizza, we're the leading seller of -- in terms of volume of pizza in the category. We compete in just one part of it. And it's on the value side, which is kind of in sync with the times. And then we have other kind of very targeted things like frozen hot snacks, which we had a terrific first half on. And so that just got down to good items, good marketing that resonate with the consumer. I don't know if there's a category trend on it.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Zaslow with BMO.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst · BMO.

Ian, I had a question just on the cereal category. When you look at like a Lucky Charms, not getting too particular, you put some advertising spending behind it. It looked like it moved very substantially on that. So I guess my question is how do you decide on which cereal brands to support? Because it seems like when you do support them, you actually get movement. And maybe if you supported it or got more advertising dollars behind it, there would be more brands that moved because Lucky Charms seem to be moving nicely with a little brand support.

Ian R. Friendly

Analyst · BMO.

Well, that is -- the cereal category has always been highly responsive to consumer marketing support and good ideas, as trite as that might sound. And that's kind of what we look at. We do a lot of upfront research. We do a lot of in-market experimentation and analysis, and we try and put our money behind our best ideas. And it's a brand-by-brand kind of activity. And you're quite right. I mean, we're seeing some very nice progress on a variety of our brands around great consumer ideas. And when we have them, we do put the pedal to the metal without a doubt.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst · BMO.

But is there room for you to put more advertising dollars behind more brands like almost -- not reactivate certain brands, but really -- because Lucky Charms is not a brand that had innovation as much but more -- it seems like it was more advertising behind it, and it seems like there might be opportunity to do with more brands. It's kind of...

Ian R. Friendly

Analyst · BMO.

We, in the past -- we, a few years ago, put advertising behind Multi Grain Cheerios after many years and saw that thing take off like a rocket. The Lucky Charms story has also got something to do with finding additional targets. So advertising a lot of these previously kid-targeted brands also to the adult consumption, which they have very high levels of adult consumption, is true on Lucky Charms, true on Cinnamon Toast. And so yes, I think there are certainly many opportunities to add consumer support in the cereal category on different brands behind good ideas.

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst · BMO.

So Ken, I'll just -- since several people have -- a few people have asked about strategy in the cereal category and differentiation. I mean, they're very good questions and we like them, and they go to the heart of what we're all about. We have a highly differentiated line of great brands, and they are -- we know that they're responsive to advertising and to good ideas, and that's why our strategy really is so focused on capitalizing on that innovation, strengthening it, figuring out fresh new ways to talk about it because, as you point out, there are many examples in the category, all the time, of brands that have had fresh messages, and they really respond. So you're on the right point, and that's what we're very focused on doing.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Alexia Howard with Sanford Bernstein. Alexia Howard - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: So just a couple of small follow-ups. On baking mixes, it's not a segment that we focus on very much, but this is obviously an important quarter for baking mixes with the holiday season. Could you maybe talk a little bit about what's going on in terms of price, volume and share dynamics there and what the outlook might be?

Ian R. Friendly

Analyst

Yes. We -- our baking mix business is, so far, off to a really good start to the season. It is still, for parts of the portfolio, kind of midway in the season. And we had a really good November. I think you can see that in the data. And as I said in my prepared remarks around both our refrigerated dough business, it's been very responsive to the Let the Making Begin campaign, and our dry mix has also had a very good response to the marketing. So, so far, so good. We like what we're seeing, and it seems to be going well. Alexia Howard - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: And then as a quick follow-up on cereals. I've noticed a few articles about consumer concern about GMOs in, I guess, some of your larger brands. Is that having any major impact on cereal sales at the moment in your view?

Ian R. Friendly

Analyst

We haven't seen anything really on the consumer side related to that.

Operator

Operator

And the last question will be taken from the line of Ed Aaron with RBC Capital Markets.

Edward Aaron - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

I wanted to ask on cereal, so I can understand why the year would be kind of more back-half weighted just given the cadence of your merchandising programs. But I think you said on the last quarter that Big G, you thought, would be up in Q2. Was there a surprise this quarter relative to your expectations? And if so, would you attribute that more to category weakness or to competitive activity?

Ian R. Friendly

Analyst

Yes, I'd say there was a little bit of a surprise in our Q2, not a lot. We expected Q1 to be down, which we, I think, talked about at the beginning of the year. We thought more of our promotional plan would start showing up throughout Q2. It started showing up largely towards the end of Q2 and going here into December. And so we're seeing cereal, as I commented, sequentially pick up. But we didn't quite get all that we expected. And again, it had a lot to do with just higher levels of competitive -- certain competitive frequencies in that particular quarter. It will all, I think, come out in the year. Primarily some of that stuff was pushed into December and into the back half for us. So it will be a different flow than we anticipated, but I would anticipate that by year-end it will pretty much be where we thought.

Edward Aaron - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

And then my follow-up question on international. I think you mentioned that organic growth internationally was up 4%, which I think is maybe a little bit lower than where you'd been running. Do I have that right? And then if so, which businesses or markets might have contributed to some sequential slowing there?

Kendall J. Powell

Analyst

I think it's a little bit behind.

Donal Leo Mulligan

Analyst

Yes. The 4% that we reported in the quarter is not materially off where we were last year in the same mid-single digit range. But to the extent that there's any slowing, it's just on the margin.

Kristen Smith Wenker

Analyst

Thanks, everybody. If there are still questions out there, please give me a call, and I'll try to get them answered for you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line.