Anthony J. Guzzi
Analyst · FBR Capital Markets
Thanks, Mark. We're now on Page 12. I'll spend a little bit of time on backlog, and Page 12 -- this page is a little different than you're used to seeing. On the left-hand side of the chart you'll see total backlog. On the right, we're talking about domestic. If you look at total backlog, we're up 6.9% or $227 million. And all of the increase is organic. But really, what's going on in the U.K. and our complete withdrawal from the U.K. construction market, you can see that's down, and that will continue to drop until we just get to stasis on our facilities business. Let's go to the right-hand side and look at the domestic market. You look down at the blue, and what you'll see is EFS is down $40 million. We foreshadowed that in our earnings call, 2012 year-end earnings call, where we talked about what was going on with our portfolio reshaping of the site-based business. We had a large contract and a couple of smaller ones that weren't profitable. Went back to the customer that we need to do X to make this work for both of us. We decided to part ways. That's a good outcome for margins long term and allows us to focus in more positive directions as we discussed. The good news on this page, and it is good news, is we've had a sizable increase in our domestic construction backlog of 15.6%. And in the Q this quarter, you'll now see a more detailed disclosure on backlog and invite you to look at that. So backlog is up 9.4% domestically and you can see the components of it. Here in the states, U.S. construction base backlog increased $326 million, with both mechanical and electrical segments experiencing double-digit growth. That's good. And again, we continue to shed the U.K. construction backlog. With that I'd like you to turn to Page 13. Since December, backlog has increased $335 million. And switching to market sector for a moment on the graph, and again we're on Page 13, you saw increases in industrial, transportation, water & wastewater, and commercial and healthcare are basically holding level for the 6 months. Institutional backlog has discrete -- decreased $82 million or 8%. And as I mentioned earlier in my remarks, we know that a portion of this decrease is a direct result of sequestration and the financial gridlock in Washington. One may ask why are we seeing it a little quicker than other defense contractors? We are more in the operating, and we're in the budget that they can touch nearer and dearer and quick. Some the projects keep going, others have been slowed. I will tell you, it's as difficult of an environment to negotiate request for equitable adjustments in change orders, as I have seen. And they direct you to do the work. I should get paid. We will get paid, but it is very difficult right now to get resolution. We're very bullish on the government sector long term because we think this will lead to more consolidation, and we'll be able to do more maintenance for the government. And we think eventually, this sequestration will lead to more outsourcing. But it's a tough time right now. We have a team that's focused on it, and we know how to keep our cost in line while we go through this. When you look at other components of the backlog, you look at commercial, hospitality and industrial, it's about half of what we're doing right now, which compares to about 44% in the year-ago period. And that's good. They've grown about 17% since June of '12. Industrial backlog's at an all-time high with $705 million, and it's comprised of food processing, tire, paper plant and power-related projects. Just as a note, the only part of our refinery business that's in backlog is really the shop services part of it, where we have a firm commitment. And when we say shop services, that's really for the new build or significant rebuild. It's not for any of the repair work we do in those shops, and it's really none of the turnaround work, or very little of it that we do in Ohmstede Industrial Services or soon RepconStrickland will be in backlog. It's work that -- we know what the scope's sort of, that scope expands and contracts based on what we find when we get into the refinery. And most of that work is done on a fixed fee time and material or time and material basis. And we've talked about the cash flow characteristics of that, too. We're paying the people every week, and we're usually 30 to 60 or more days in arrear. The other thing about backlog that's important, and we always remind people of this, right? We only put in the backlog what is a fixed-service agreement for one year or a fixed-price contract or approved change orders. We don't make any guesses on what IDIQ work will be. We don't put multi-year contracts in here. And We certainly don't put unapproved change orders in here. So our backlog is what we have the customers commitment for us to work on. Transportation is up this quarter. We have a couple of bridge-lighting projects we're working on. And water & wastewater grew since the end of '12. Our commercial, the reality is it's actually up both year-over-year and sequentially from December, when you adjust for the service agreement that we took out of the site-based business. We have a book-to-bill of over 1 year-to-date. And in the quarter, it's a little bigger than that. It's about 1.1. We're seeing it work across the portfolio, with the exception of some institutional work. And I believe the economy is trying. I think it's trying to get moving. But I think, you know us well enough, that we are not going to hide behind that as an excuse, and we're always going to focus on the things we control. All that being said, let's go back. 15.6% construction backlog growth. EFS holding firm with a better mix, a new acquisition coming in at RepconStrickland, that's in a great space, and getting the U.K. behind us and shedding what's been nonproductive backlog since the existence of EMCOR. I think a lot of good things happening on these 2 pages. With that, I'd ask you to go to Page 14 and 15. When I look at where we are year-to-date, we're about where we expected to be. The only difference is instead of downsizing, reshaping, resizing the U.K., we decided to do a complete withdrawal from U.K. construction market because we saw the opening. And it got to a place where it was affordable on a restructuring basis, and yes, some of the losses are accelerated as we move work to subcontractors, and we have to take some of the work on the WIP that we started. But most of those losses, or why they're a little bigger than we might have expected, is because once you make the decision to exit, there's a lot of unproductive time when you exit the U.K., just like the rest of Europe, U.K. is a little better or Canada. And we have a lot of unproductive time, we get more people that you knew to actually do the job, which is very different than what we've experienced here. And out of the exception of those 2 mechanical projects, which is not usual for us. We have a pattern of pretty good half. In our pro forma basis, we're up in a different economy -- difficult economy. We do have many areas growing well. And we talked about the backlog growth. The reality is sequesters hurt us a little more than we thought it was going to. We intimated we thought it was about $0.05 when we gave guidance. It's bigger than that. It's $0.10 to $0.15, at least. Again, we have frozen decision making on new awards, and we've been a net winner of awards as our government businesses grow nicely over the last 5 or 6 years with new awards. And the bigger irritant or the bigger difficulty is lack of responsiveness for request for equitable adjustments for work that you've been directed to do. As we look forward, we're going to give guidance on a pro forma basis. But you can see on the page, on 15, what it would be on a GAAP basis. We're expecting about $6.6 billion of revenue, which has really taken what we did before, adjusting for the withdrawal of the U.K. instead of just the reshaping of the U.K. and then adding RepconStrickland, our best guess on what that will be for the year. So we expect $2.15 to $2.40. GAAP basis, looks like $1.80 to $2.05. The pro forma add backs are around $0.35 to $0.40, and that would be the RepconStrickland deal cost, the U.K. restructuring and the U.K. operating losses as we exit error withdrawal from the construction market. We're planning our 2014 expectation, so [indiscernible] this is important and you know that. We expect to operate a $300 million to $350 million business. And we expect to earn 3% to 4% operating margins. So that could help in your planning. For us to achieve the top end of the range, we need to see some improvement in our mechanical margins. As we go on the back half of the year, we expect that. We expect to see at least flat performance there and I'll keep giving up ground. Again, we had a very tough compare first half of last -- versus the first half of last year. ..We do need a strong [indiscernible] refining season. And I want to caution everybody right now, we had an exceptionally strong Q3 last year. We had a customer that had an issue, coupled with we had some turnarounds moved up and others that were delayed until the third quarter from the first quarter. You will remember that we didn't exactly hit the cover off of the ball in our field services business in the first quarter of '12. We did very well in the second and third quarter, which is unusual. We expect the refining season to be more weighted towards late third quarter, fourth quarter this year. We need to see the government at least make us whole on some of the work they asked us to do, not all of it. All these things are possible, but clearly, not all of them are in our control. And with that, I'll take questions. And, Tunisia, if you can open up the line, that would be great.