Anthony J. Guzzi
Analyst · FBR
Thanks, Mark. And I think that sentence there encapsulated how we really run EMCOR for a long period of time. And certainly what has allowed us to perform in really a choppy market over a 4-year period. And I think we've been consistent in saying that over a 4-year period. And it really starts with what we see on page 10. You've got to select the right work and then you got to execute it. And that right work comes whether it be construction or service. We went through a backlog a little bit, and it's about $3.42 billion. It's up maybe 1% from last year. But the reality is it's up a little stronger here in the U.S construction business. It's up maybe 5%. Facilities is down a little bit, but that's mainly due to what we talked about in the fourth quarter, where we mutually agreed with some of our service customers that the relationship wasn't as successful as we would have liked it to have been for us, even though we were performing very well for them. And some of them were going through a fairly extensively restructuring on their own, and we thought we'd better just break the relationship. And so that's really a reduction in the facilities business, and you would call that good reduction, coupled with the increase in construction, U.S. business up about 3%. Now we're down intentionally in the U.K. business. Mark talked about that. We're getting to the right mix. You all may wonder why we can't get there quicker. But if you remember the long-term history here, we've done a lot to reshape the U.K., to make it a lot less volatile to our results, and our goal is sometime in the middle of next year to be there. So that becomes a steady contributor focused mainly on service with a very service-heavy focus. It's about 75, 25 today. What the right mix is, we don't entirely know yet, but there is a portion of the construction operation that we'll have that will support our facilities business. Since December, backlogs increased $45 million. And it's in market sectors that you see on page 10, commercial, industrial, transportation and water and wastewater, and even a slight increase in hospitality. But let's be clear, we could have a couple of condo renovations in Vegas right now and see an increase in hospitality. We're not back at healthcare and institutional. Healthcare is a good long-term market. I think the market's waiting through right how the Affordable Care Act is going to impact everybody. I know we're all certainly doing that inside companies today, and most of it is not great. I mean, we will get through it as a big company, and we've done a lot to prepare ourselves for it. I would not want to be a small business in our business trying to deal with this today. When you look at institutional, a lot of people ask how much of that has to do with sequestration? I don't know the exact amount. I do know the decision making is frozen. On the maintenance side, the government's been in a break/fix model since at least 2002. It's hard to go much lower than that. Although I believe there'll be some pickup in spending as the year goes on because things need fixed and IDIQ work needs done although certainly slowdown in the first quarter. The bigger issue is what we're doing on even the maintenance capital side or on the capital side. Some of the projects make a lot -- most of the projects make a lot of sense. Some of them, we don't make the decision on why they're doing it. But the ones that make sense, we're even seeing really slow decision making. And the projects are designed. They're ready to go, and the decisions aren't being made. So you say, it's showing up in 2 areas, it's showing up in current results in the maintenance area, and it's showing up in backlog because of the delay in decision making on projects that we would be well positioned on. That being said, private markets of industrial and commercial are okay. Commercial is not as strong as we like, but if you see, EMCOR, we're pretty good at moving and adapting. You can see how we've done that and how we positioned us well in industrial right now. And then industrial is pretty broad-based, from food processing to technology, to tires to auto into paper. So it's pretty broad-based. I think a lot of it has to do with pent-up demand. And even more it has to do with I think, people believe in the U.S. has the chance to be a low-cost producer because of the energy situation. And remember, a lot of our industrial revenues and results don't flow through backlog as we do the turnaround and maintenance work on heavy process plants, with a lot of it being refinery, but we do it even beyond refinery. From industrial of $648 million, that's a high watermark for us. And remember what I said, it doesn't include everything we do because the turnaround work and the maintenance work tends to be unit price for time and material. Commercial backlog is down a little from the first quarter last year. We talked about this commercial site customers. I don't think there's been a big change in the commercial market year-over-year, might be just up a little. And it's clearly nowhere near going where it was in '09 and '10. We expect a gradual improvement. I would argue the improvement should be much broader based and eventually it will be, but it certainly didn't happen in the first quarter. Book-to-bill is 1 again. That's probably like 9 out of 11 of the last quarters. We're busy. We're moving in a positive direction. We're gaining more confidence as a company as we continue to operate in these really choppy times. Our customers make decisions as slow as they ever have. And we react as quick as we can, and we perform for them. With that, I'd like you to switch to page 11 and 12. I'll talked a little bit about what we're doing with guidance and what we see right now sitting here today. Well, the reality is, we're not changing anything sitting here today. We're going to keep it at $2.05 to $2.35 a share. We still expect revenues around $6.5 billion. And the reality is not much changed since the outlook that we gave you in February. Construction volume and clarity on the fall turnaround season remains the biggest uncertainties out there today. It's not that we're negative on them but we don't have complete clarity, and that's not unusual over the past 4 years. We do see a slowly improving market. I like to call it a market of reluctance momentum. I'd like to focus the discussion on how you get to the better part of the range, the top end of the range. Like I said in February, it's execution coupled with opportunity, you need to have both. I said there were 4 items that would take us there, and let me give you an update on them. The first one is commercial site based gets on tracks and contributes. And I said in February, we expect this to happen. I think our Q1 performance validates that some of it is happening. A lot of people ask me in the question and answers, That must have been snow. Remember we're still below average snowfall season. We had a couple of big storms, clearly it was better than the year before but it's more broad-based than just snow. We had good execution, and we're starting to really gain traction. And the cost reductions that we've done over the past 18 months are really starting to pay dividends for us. Construction continues its excellent track record. And let's be clear, right? We have to find the right opportunities and match them with great execution. We take on long-cycle projects and turned them into short-cycle projects. We will execute. We still do not have complete visibility on the level of demand we'd like for the year. That's not unusual. We're well positioned, especially in the industrial markets, on several opportunities. We're off to a more traditional start in the business. And as the year progresses, we'll see increased visibility, obviously. We feel good about how we can execute and make returns in our construction business. We said the refinery market needs to be strong all year. Well, clearly, we had a great first quarter in the refinery business. As I pointed out to my colleagues, others are saying, well, maybe it wasn't as good a spring turnaround season. Well, other people were saying last year was strong, and we were saying it wasn't as strong. A lot of it has to do with customer mix and your ability to respond to them. We were in the right place this year to make that happen. The overall market continues to be very good. We expect that to continue for the year. We will firm that up as the summer goes on. And it could be as strong but again, you really have no complete visibility on what you'll do until you actually get in there and start doing it. Now when we said about sequester not hurting us too bad, and it's really coming in 2 areas. You heard talk about how it's affected backlog. In reality, I have no clue how this thing will play out long term. I do know that it's probably at a minimum and it costs us $0.03 to $0.05 of headwind. We knew that when we gave guidance. It's led to less optimal decision making, I think, what concern us more than anything. We can deal with uncertainty. We can deal with reduced levels of demand. We can't deal with less optimal decision making, and that's part of what happened to us in the mechanical segment in the first quarter. We need people to make decisions, so we understand where we're going. And I guess we don't have the confidence that people will make those decisions in a timely manner for us. Now if you go to a longer-term view of building the business through acquisition, we've tended to be pretty good at this over a long period of time. We believe that there will be some opportunities to expand our business here over the next 12 to 18 months. We've talked in the past of where we like it. We will always invest in our traditional, mechanical and electrical construction businesses. We still have places we'd like to fill out our mechanical services footprint, and we still, in a consolidated government market, would like to build capabilities in some areas. We know how to win the work. There's some areas we'd like to round out our capabilities. And we really do like the industrial business. We've made a real focus there over the past 5 years, and it looks like we made the right call as we continue to perform in that market. We think all of those will have opportunities over the next 12 to 18 months, and we'll make sure we allocate capital to the best opportunities as they become available. We don't control the bidding. There will be other bidders on some of these properties, in others there won't be. We don't know that sitting here today. But we do know that we will be competitive when we can be, and we'll make deals that make sense for us like we always have. So in summary, we're off to a good start for the year. We've reformed about where we expected, consistent with where we expected -- a little better than we expected probably consistent with where you expected. We still have the 3 quarters in front of us. I -- and we'll be back to update you at the end of the second quarter. So thank you, and I look forward to taking your questions. Lee, open the line to questions.