Anthony J. Guzzi
Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets
Thanks, Mark, and I'm on Page 12. We have enhanced our backlog disclosure and now we report by segment, which we started with the Q2 2013 reporting. Total backlog at the end of third quarter stands at $3.39 billion, virtually flat with backlog as of September 2012. Our U.S. backlog is up $60 million year-over-year, and our U.K. backlog is down $46 million, and all of that's planned or 21% for the same time period. As already mentioned in the call, backlog in the U.K. continues to decline as we complete the planned withdrawal from the U.K. construction operations, which I'm sure everybody will be happy when we quit talking about that after 9 months of talking about it. Here in the States, U.S.-based construction backlog increased $208 million. That's what gives us -- starts to give us a little excitement here that maybe, maybe nonresidential construction might be showing early signs of coming back. We're close to 10% over the year-ago quarter with the Electrical segment up $298 million or 42% on the back of industrial and transportation projects, as well as a nice couple of commercial projects in the New York City area. As we know, Electrical is our most consistent performer over a long period of time. The Mechanical segment was down a little year-over-year, and this is nothing other than the normal ebb and flow of project work and contract awards, and you'd note that might be an okay thing considering the 2 aforementioned projects we discussed for both in backlog at this time last year. So that's basically what it's done year-over-year. Please note that 70% of our total backlog is really made up of these 2 segments, and these are the 2 segments when you really look at backlog, their earnings are driven from backlog in the future. There's some work that happens outside our backlog, where it's quick term work or more time and material, but our construction business is very much our backlog-driven businesses as you would expect. And most of that work is on a fixed-price basis. Backlog in our Building Services segment that, as previously stated, is made up of the Mobile Mechanical Services, Site-based Services, Government Service group. That's 22%. It is down $140 million. Let's be clear, we have gone through a pretty successful effort, and you see it in the margins. Calling work from backlog, that just doesn't make sense for us or that the customers have shifted on their expectations of what they want done, and our cost to serve became too high to make it economically feasible for us. That took about $100 million of backlog out, and you can argue the other $40 million is just the ebb and flow of the business as small project work comes in and out or government IDIQ work comes in and out or a slowness in the rewarding of contracts as we move to month-to-month on some of these contracts no longer have a full year's visibility on it. It's been a good outcome on margins for the long term. As we discussed, the newly broken out U.S. Industrial Service segment is comprised of Ohmstede, Redman and the newly acquired RepconStrickland. The only backlog that's really in this business is the shops business, and that part is really -- it had to be a significant major repair or complete rebuild with all new alloys and everything. But for the most part, that's the OEM part of the business, which if you'll remember is about 25% of what the original Ohmstede did. The rest of the work is either done on repairs or turnarounds. It's either done on a time and material basis or quota basis for repair, and it turns around so quick. It never is in backlog. RepconStrickland carry no backlog as we define it at EMCOR. I should note here that much of the work building services and industrial perform are really time and material work, small task work and backlog sometimes isn't the best representation of how that unit will perform in the current or ongoing period. With that, I'd ask you to move to Page 13, and we're going to talk about the sectors. Since December, backlog is up slightly. Institutional backlog ticked down for the quarter, which is really offset by transportation work, which we look as a real positive on a go-forward basis because a lot of that work requires really highly skilled people, especially on the electrical side, and there's not a whole lot of contractors that can do that. And we talked about this before, a lot of times you're competing on a budget. We have to get within the budget and make it all work, and that's good for us. In commercial, despite what we did year-over-year or even quarter-to-quarter in the commercial accounts business or site-based business, we're still up slightly, which you're starting to see, we hope, is a little sliver of hope there in commercial as it has sort of a steady pattern of moving up over the last 3 or 4 quarters and really over the last year. You can almost see the little purple sliver of hospitality. Really, that is a bit out work [ph] happening in some of the gaming sectors. It starting to get work for 50-50, what I would call, private work, commercial, industrial, hospitality and gaming and about 50% with non -- sort of private, which would be health care, institutional, water and wastewater, and transportation. Institutional is done for all the reasons we discussed not to mention what -- the most of which is also just the government really processing change orders and requests for adjustments in a really slow way. And I'm sure we're not the only people talking about that, and it's a very difficult environment, and certainly the shutdown didn't add to the speed of resolution on those issues. Now I'm going to be on Page 14 and 15, and let me talk about what everybody's probably been waiting for anyway, and you already know because we put out the press release. We're going to narrow our guidance down and bring both the top and low end down. On a pro forma basis, that's $2.10 to $2.25 on a pro forma share basis. We expect about $6.45 billion in revenues. We stated at the beginning of the year that achieving the top end of the range would be probably based on the pace and timing of recovery in the nonresidential sector. For the most part, although we did see some U.S. backlog growth here year-over-year and quarter-to-quarter, but for the most part, we've had a muted-to-even decline in nonresidential market this year. We have fought through that, but let's be clear, we have not met or exceeded our top line growth expectations for the year. When adjusting for the U.K. closure, which is the way I like to look at it because that is an intended consequence now, our organic growth rate year-to-date is sub 2% versus the 2.5% in our initial guidance. So we didn't get the acceleration of growth, and then let's be clear, the sequester hurt us more than we thought it was going to, to the tune of $0.10 to $0.15, and that'll resolve itself whether it's $0.10 or $0.15 as we move through the year. And really you could say that delta is why we thought we needed to bring the bottom end of the range down because sitting here today, we don't know everything we will resolve by the end of the year. We also -- RepconStrickland, we didn't plan on making a lot of money in the third quarter, but we thought we'd make a couple of pennies a share. Third quarter is always difficult. It's important to look at the year-to-date performance of that business, and you'll see that the industrial sector is up nice. But the bottom line is we expected a couple of pennies. That didn't happen. The fourth quarter outlook changed a little bit, but some things got pushed to first quarter, which outlook there looks good. These are customer-specific things. The customer shift work around here by 30 to 60 to 90 days at times. Sometimes they'll move it from one turnaround season to the other. We've talked about that before. All the fundamentals are still in place for the refining and downstream market to be a very good market for us for the long term. The outlook for industrial remains strong, like I said, going to '14. We expect our backlog to continue to grow. It's going to be in a sawtooth pattern. We do feel good about certain markets right now. Commercial's got some rebound to it. Health care, a little bit and maybe some transportation work that we've been negotiating for a while. The bottom line is absent a significant external shock, what we try to do is say let's not just depend on the market after we've got to this level of earnings. Let's take the actions here in '13 that will position us well for '14 and beyond. We believe we've done that. We believe there are glimmers in the nonresidential market that tells [indiscernible] better. Part of what you're seeing in the Building Services segment is really leveraged work we call it or repair work coming back, small task work. We hope that's the sign of a trend that maybe there's pent-up demand and those that know me know I don't speak a lot about that, but maybe pent-up demand is starting to break free. So we're fairly upbeat about where we can be. Like you, we knew we had a tough compare in this quarter, but we could have done a little better than we did. And we talked about the reasons, both some of our own doing and some externally driven. And with that, Christie, I'll take questions.