Anastasios Margaronis
Analyst · Ben Nolan with Stifel. Please proceed with your question
Thank you Ioannis. We definitely need to start our short presentation on the current state and future prospects of the dry carrier market by looking at the Baltic Exchange dry bulk indices. This slide that we have here shows that the last five years levels of the above mentioned indices as well as the 12 months time charter rates for Capes and Panamax. We can look at some more detailed statistics to get a better idea of short and long term trend. On January 4, which was the first trading day of 2021, the Baltic Dry Index stood at 1,374 and by May 19 it had reached 2,801. This compares with an all-time high of 11,793 reached on May 20, 2008 which was that nearly exactly 13 years ago to the day. The Baltic Panamax Index this year at 1,364 and closed on May 19, at 2,857. The all-time high for this index was 11,013 reached on October 30, 2007. The Baltic Cape Index was 2,008 on January 4 and closed at 3,785 on May 19. This compares with an all-time high for this index of 19,687 reached on June 5, 2008 which once again was 13 years ago. Here we can add the Cape 5 time charter route average, which on January 4 stood at 16,656 per day and on May 19 had reached 31,392 per day. The Panamax 5 time charter route averaged at the beginning of the year at 12,272 per day and on May 19 stood at 25,709 per day. For comparison purposes, it is worth noting that the all-time high for the slightly differently calculated Panamax 4 T/C routes was 94, 977 in October 2007 and for the Capes, the 4 T/C average was 233,988 in June 2008. On the next slide, we are going to look at the key demand drivers. The macroeconomic statistics and how well the GDP has been moving during the past 20 years or so can be looked at here compared with ton mile growth of major bulk commodities. These are iron ore, grains and soybeans, coal, both thermal and coking and we will also look at the combined volumes of minor bulk about cargo such sulfur, salt, cement, sugar, anthracite, alumina, fertilizers, bauxite and others. According to the IMF and the OECD, world GDP is expected to grow by 6% this year following a drop of 3.3% in 2020 due to the pandemic. This year, China is expected to grow by 8.4% after growing by 2.3% in 2020. During the first quarter of this year, China's gross domestic product grew by an impressive 18.3% year-on-year. The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 6.4% in 2021 while the Euro area is anticipated to grow by 4.4% this year. According to Clarksons, overall global seaborne dry bulk trade is projected to grow by 4% in ton miles in 2021 against an underlying fleet growth of 2.8% which we will discuss later on. Within this trade sector, iron ore shipments are currently expected to grow by about 3% in 2021 compared to 2020 levels and reach 1.55 billion tons. Small growth of a further 1% is expected for 2022. Clarksons reports that Chinese government regulations on emissions might lead to steel output curbs later this year. Iron ore demand might be affected by these regulations, especially during the second half of this year. Global seaborne coking coal is currently projected by Clarksons to grow by around 6% this year. This will follow a 7% decline in 2020. Volumes in 2021 are expected to reach 266 million tons and 274 million tons in 2022 which will be further 4% increase. At this point, it is worth pointing out that China's recent ban of imports of coal from Australia have led to an effective collapse of imports to under one million tons in January of this year. The shortfall call has been made up by imports by land from Russia and Mongolia as well as by increases in domestic production. Commodore Research reports that Mongolian imports of coking coal have been coming under pressure due to the pandemic. This will most likely result in China needing to import more coking coal from much further seaborne base exporters including Canada and the United States. As regards to thermal coal, Clarksons reports that after a 10% decline in 2020 due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on global trade, seaborne steam coal trade is currently expected to grow by about 5% this year and reach 965 million tons. For 2022, Clarksons are forecasting a small increase of another 1% on volumes. To place the Chinese coal demand in perspective, it is worth noting that according to Commodore Research, China recently announced that it will only start materially reducing coal consumption in 2026. After growing by 7% to reach 512 million tons in 2020, global seaborne grain trade is projected to grow by about 3% this year and another 3% in 2022. In this trade category, we need to monitor soybean shipments which have been driving the grain market statistics for a while now. During the first quarter of this year, China imported 19.1 million tons of soybeans which was up nearly 18% year-on-year. As much as 94% of his volume were shipped from the United States and 6% from Brazil. After a 2% decline in full year 2020, global seaborne minor bulk trade is projected by Clarksons to grow there around 4% this year and a further 3% in 2022. What is interesting to note in this side is that according to Clarksons, in spite of the sharp drop in global GDP growth in 2020, volumes of all bulk cargos witnessed on average a very small drop in the rate of growth which was still slightly positive, about 0.5%, in ton miles and just 1.6% negative in pure volumes during 2020. Next slide, we look at the supply. On May 1, 2021, the Capesize order book stood at 20.6 million deadweight representing about 5.6% of the global trading fleet. From these ships, half are scheduled for delivery this year and 9.1 deadweight are expected to be delivered in 2022. The Panamax order book consisted of 174 vessels with a combined deadweight of 14.5 million deadweight. This is the equivalent of 6.3% of the fleet by deadweight. From these, newbuildings, 6.5 million will be delivered this year and an expected 5.8 million in 2022. On an overall basis, on May 1 this year, there were 51.5 million deadweight worth of bulk carriers on order representing 5.6% of the total global trading fleet, according to the head researcher of Simpson Spence Young, this is the lowest percentage figures seen in over 20 years. According to Clarksons and as mentioned earlier on, the trading fleet is expected to grow by only 2.8% this year with deliveries dropping to 35.4 million deadweight, down 28% year-on-year in deadweight terms. According to Banchero Costa and other shipping analysts, the trading fleet will grow by a mere 1% by the end of 2022 compared to this year. We will briefly mention certain conservative assumptions which have been made on scrapping, losses and congestion for this year and next, which have been incorporated in the calculations for the fleet growth estimates mentioned above. On scrapping, Clarksons estimates that last year bulk carriers were about 16.3 million deadweight for scrap. According to Banchero Costa, so far this year, only 4.69 million deadweight of bulk carriers have been scrapped. Around 11% of the trading fleet is over 20 years old and a further 11% is between 15 and 19 years old. At the other end of the age spectrum, 16% of the dry bulk fleet is less than five years old. At the moment, the situation in India remains extremely difficult. Rising COVID-19 cases are leading to the diversion of oxygen from scrapping facilities to hospitals. Consequently, recycling activity in that company has effectively ceased. Similar pressures are seen in Pakistan. Banchero Costa are optimistic on demolition statistics and estimate that during 2021, about 165 dry bulk vessels might be scrapped for a total of 14.1 million deadweight. For 2022 and 2023, they predict even stronger demolition statistics due to the age profile structure and environmental regulations. From past experience however, we believe that as we got scrapping for the rest of this year and beyond, much will depend on the future course of the freight market and also sentiment congestion. To counterbalance this positive projection, Braemar raised the following warning flag. As queues in Brazil loading ports continue to fall and congestion is reduced in its usual seasonal pattern, congestion will be halved by July. As this happens and more ships open up in the Far East after discharging, we could see a temporary cooling off effect on the current strong freight market. As regards the outlook now, even though due to time restrictions we have not analyzed steel production in this presentation. It is worthwhile noting that according to Commodore Research, the combination of steel and iron ore demand model for both China and the world at large remains one of several bullish elements poised to continue to support the dry bulk market going forward. Howe Robinson have analyzed the above-mentioned projections on GDP growth. They have observed that since 2009, financial recession, growth in dry bulk shipments has outperformed growth in international trade as a whole. They present evidence showing that from 2005 to 2021, dry bulk cargo shipments have grown almost twice as fast as GDP growth. It is also confirmed in the key demand driver slide shown earlier on. The simulation results coming from their dry bulk modal show a 6.7% increase in cargo volumes for 2021 followed by a further increase of 4.3% in 2022. If these projections are realized, the dry bulk market should perform even better than the statistics presented earlier on would indicate.