Anastasios Margaronis
Analyst · Clarksons Platou Securities. Please proceed with your questions
Thank you, Simeon, and welcome to all the participants to this latest quarterly conference call of Diana Shipping, Inc. During the last quarter of 2020 and the first few weeks of 2021, the market has certainly given all participants reasons to pay careful attention to current developments and make some exciting predictions about the short and medium-term developments. The Baltic Exchange Index started the year at 1,374 and closed the last Friday, February 19th at 1,698. The Baltic Cape Index moved down from 2,008 to 1,715. And the Baltic Panamax Index started the year at 1,364 and has moved up to 2,332 as of last Friday. Turning to macroeconomic developments. According to figures released recently by the IMS, global GDP growth is expected to rise by 5.5% this year and by a further 4.2% in 2022. This follows the shrinking of global GDP by an estimated 3.5% in 2020. We sincerely hope these optimistic forecasts come to pass, as the pandemic is continuing to affect economic activity this year and will not allow our businesses to work at their pre-pandemic pace for some quarters to come. Chinese GDP is expected to grow by 8.1% this year and by 5.6% in 2022. These growth forecasts follow growth of just 2.3% in 2020. In the United States, GDP after shrinking by an estimated 3.4% last year is expected to grow by 5.1% this year and by a further 2.5% in 2022. Europe, whose economic activity dropped by about 4.6% last year is estimated to grow by 3.9% in 2021 and by a further 3.4% in 2022. Let's have a quick look at newbuilding deliveries during the last year. According to Banchero Costa, 480 bulk carrier units or 48.6 million deadweight tons were delivered last year. This total included 25 VLOCs, 84 Capes, both totaling about 25 million deadweight; 24 post Panamaxies and 128 Panamaxies, both these categories totaling about 12.65 million deadweight. These figures are to be compared with a new building order book we mentioned later in this discussion. Look at the order book now. As far as new building contracts signed in 2020 are concerned, Clarkson’s report that they totaled about 13.5 million deadweight tons, which was down nearly 58% compared to the equivalent figure of 2019. Clarkson also report that in December 2020 there were 38.8 million tons of Panamaxies and post-Panamaxies on order, representing about 6% of the trading fleet. Of these, 9 million deadweight are scheduled for delivery in 2021 and 4 million deadweight in 2022. At the same time, there were 23.9 million deadweight of Capes including VLOCs on order, which was the equivalent of about 6.6% of the current trading fleet. Of these, 15.9 million deadweight are expected to be delivered in 2021 and 7.2 million in 2022. The above statistics coupled with the overall bulk carrier order book which is not higher than 6% bode well for the supply trends of the industry at least for the next 12 to 18 months. The above mentioned order book to existing fleet ratio has dropped to the lowest level since 2002. One of the reasons why newbuilding orders are low is not only the uncertainty of future demand, this has always been there, but the uncertainty over the appropriate fuel for the large Marine engines of the future. We agree with Howe Robinson that the dilemma surrounding the future fuel for ship propulsion, both the comparatively simple to scrub or not to scrub decisions of a couple of years ago. Shipping’s green agenda has been firmly established since the IMO decided to include shipping in its target to reduce CO2 emissions by 40% by 2030. The fact that relatively few of the currently proposed solutions appear suitable and/or economic for retrofits mix might create the new building boom across the board sometime this decade. Furthermore, the combination of mandated regulations and feasible technologies when eventually become available could have a severe effect on the resale prices particularly of young, traditionally powered vessels. According to Howe Robinson, whatever green fuels eventually emerge as winners, they will most likely be more expensive than existing ones. Consequently, fuel efficient ships including those that have wind assisted technologies, are likely to enjoy significant freight premium. There is broad agreement that LNG is probably the only fuel currently available in sufficient quantities to achieve emission cuts in the near term of about 20% to 25%. This coupled with the problem of methane residues which needs to be overcome makes LNG just a bridge towards future compliant propulsion fuels. As the Chairman of one bulk carrier owner remark, “do you actually build the bridge or way to see what is on the other side of this bridge.” These few words encapsulate the dilemma facing ship owners in ordering new building vessels of any kind today. So until it is decided, if the green fuel of the future will be ammonia, biofuels, hydrogen, atomic batteries or something else, the decision to order on a large scale expensive new building units will be held back. This can only be good news for the shipping market as a whole in the medium term. Let's look at dry bulk demand and supply now. According to Clarksons, the total dry bulk trade remained effectively stagnant during 2020 at 29.344 million ton miles. Expressed in tons of cargo, seaborne dry bulk trade shrank by an estimated 2.1% in 2020. The forecast is for volumes to rise by 3.7% in 2021 and reach 30.435 billion tons by the end of the year. For 2022, the forecast is for a further 2.6% increase. The projected ton mile demand increase for this year must be set against the projected 2.6% net increase in supply of tonnage in 2021, which should support some fundamental rebalancing and possibly lead rates higher from their present levels. Such a low level of net fleet increase has not been seen according to Howe Robinson for about 15 years. Given the fact that this small increase follows a period of relative balance between supply and demand in the sector, this cannot but bring some good news on earnings and asset values. For 2022, dry bulk per tonnage is projected to increase by only 1%. If this is indeed realized, the market should be supported even further in the medium term as well considering the estimated demand increase mentioned above of 2.6%. Let's look at steel now. According to Howe Robinson, based on figures issued by the Chinese Steel Association, China's steel demand will increase slightly in 2021 compared to 2020 supported by stable macroeconomic policies. Chinese steel production rose to a record 1.05 billion tons in 2020 as the economy's gradual reopening after the coronavirus induced lockdowns boosted demand. To comply with the government's desire to reduce carbon emissions, it is likely that China will increase imports of primary steel products especially billets. The latter is a raw slab of steel that needs to be processed further. The inputs of such billets increased 500% in 2020 and are likely to increase even further in 2021. Such a trend if indeed prevails will reduce somewhat the amount of iron ore and to a certain degree of coking coal that China will need for its steel mills going forward. During last year, imports of steel products into China increased by 64.4% while exports fell by 16.6%. This trend is expected to prevail this year as well mainly due to the effects of the pandemic. Iron ore, according to Clarksons’ iron ore imports worldwide had expected to grow this year by 3% and reach 1.545 billion tons. For 2022, the forecast is for a further 1% increase. For this year, Chinese imports are expected to keep growing as they did last year, despite potentially slower steel production growth and the partial reversal of the shift away from scrap use seen last year. Iron ore demand by other countries around the world is anticipated according to Clarksons to grow by about 11% this year after posting significant drops in 2020. For example, European imports of iron ore in 2020 that's excluding the United Kingdom, were down 25.2% year-on-year at 70.2 million tons. As for coking coal, Clarksons reports that the coking coal trade is estimated to have declined by 9% to around 247 million tons last year as the COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact on steel mill rates so utilization in several key regions. Total coal imports by the 27 EU members dropped 32.2% in 2020 compared to 2019 and totaled a mere 68.7 million tons according to Refinitiv vessel tracking data. This year coking coal trade is expected to increase by 6% compared to last year and by a further 5% in 2022. U.S. and Canadian export volumes are expected to increase by around 12% this year always according to Clarksons. On thermal coal now, Clarksons report a global seaborne steam coal trade is estimated to have declined by 10% to around 920 million tons last year, primarily due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. While this trade remains under pressure, a partial rebound of about 4% is projected for 2021 as the world overcomes the worst impact of the pandemic. Chinese steam coal imports are expected to fall by 3% this year though volumes are highly sensitive to government policies and major uncertainty remains. Projected increase of imports by countries like India, Indonesia and the Southeast Asian region will make up for the lower imports by China. Worth noting that China did not import any coal from Australia in December 2020 and the ban on coal imports from that country remains in force. Those lost cargoes are now sourced from places like Russia, South Africa and Indonesia. Small volumes are transported also overland from Mongolia. Take a look at the grain trade now. According to Clarksons, the global seaborne grain trade is initially projected to grow by around 2% in the 2021 grain season falling at 6% increase seen in the previous grain season. This slowdown will, according to Clarksons, be connected to a much slower projected growth in the soybean trade after last year's strong 10% increase. This performance was underpinned by U.S. soybean exports which according to a definitive vessel tracking data increased by 36% year-on-year at 61.4 million tons. During 2020, China imported a total of 94.7 million tons of soybeans which was 33% higher than in 2019. For the 2021–2022 grain season, overall volumes are expected to grow by a further 3% and reach 532 million tons. A quick look at the minor bulk trades. The minor bulk trades which have gradually grown and have come to represent about 2 billion tons of cargo shipped per year worldwide are estimated to grow by 4% this year and by another 3% in 2022. Several cargoes falling under this broad category such as pet coke, bauxite, cement, copper concentrates, soya meal, and others have shipped more and more in Panamax vessels. A look at scrapping now. According to Howe Robinson, 124 bulk carrier vessels of 15.9 million deadweight were sold for scrap in 2020. Last year saw about 11.3 million tons of capes being sold for scrap and only 900,000 deadweight worth of Panamax. For 2021, an estimated 5.6 million deadweight worth of capes are expected to head for the scrap yards and about 1.9 million deadweight worth of Panamax. These numbers will obviously fluctuate depending on the state of the freight market this year. Looking briefly at the age profile of the large bulk area fleet, Clarksons reported at the beginning of the year about 21% of the total Panamax fleet were over 15 years old while only 9% of the cape-sized fleet fell into that age category. Only 2% of capes in the water are over 20 years old. So, let's try and form an outlook for the industry after all the statistics that we have been talking about. The statistics seem to indicate that after a long wait, the stars affecting the fortunes of the dry bulk trades are finally becoming aligned. The statistics and the future estimates reported above future estimates reported above, even if they materialize by only 75% or so, cannot help but bring about a long awaited recovery in the dry bulk earnings. The duration of such a good market will depend on among other things, firstly, the shipowner sentiment about the market. Secondly, the availability or lack thereof of credit. Thirdly, the pricing of newbuilding. And fourthly, charterer’s perception about the future trends in this industry. Therefore, we mostly agree with the view expressed by Commodore Research that dry bulk prospects remain positive at least for the near term. China's coal import prospects for example remain encouraging. While coal stockpiles of China's six major coastal power plants have been on a free fall and recently stood at just 12 million tons. These stockpiles are enough to meet only 15 days of demand, which is an extremely low level as electricity production this winter has been setting record highs. All other commodities are also expected to move in increased volumes, while supply appears to be well under control. These features of the market, coupled with a lack of serious imbalances creating surplus tonnage during the last couple years make us as a company reasonably optimistic about the future of our industry. As has been the case up to now, the Diana management team will use market developments to strengthen even further its balance sheet, lower the average age of our fleet initially at least through vessel sales, which we have been doing for the last few quarters. Eventually, we will also be reinstating a long awaited dividend to our shareholders. Our business strategy will continue to be conservative and at the same time opportunistic. And our track record is there to prove the beneficial result of such policies implemented consistently and with full transparency. I’d like now to pass the call to our CFO, Ioannis Zafirakis, who will provide us with the financial highlights of Q4 2020 and annual results for the whole year. Thank you.