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Diana Shipping Inc. (DSX)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 12, 2015

$2.52

+0.60%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Diana Shipping Third Quarter 2015 Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host Ed Nebb, Investor Relations Advisor for Diana Shipping. Please go ahead, sir.

Ed Nebb

Analyst

Thanks, Kevin and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Members of the Diana Shipping management team who are with us are Mr. Simeon Palios, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Anastasios Margaronis, President; Mr. Andreas Michalopoulos, Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Ioannis Zafirakis, Chief Operating Officer and Secretary; and Ms. Maria Dede, Chief Accounting Officer. Before management begins their remarks, let me briefly remind you of the Safe Harbor notice. Certain statements made during this conference call which are not historical fact are forward-looking statements under the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Forward-looking statements are based on the assumptions, expectations, projections and beliefs as to future events that may not prove to be accurate. For a description of the risk, uncertainties and other factors that may cause future results to differ from the forward-looking statements please refer to the company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. And now with that, let me turn the call over to Mr. Simeon Palios, Chairman and CEO of Diana Shipping.

Simeon Palios

Analyst

Thank you, Ed. Good morning and thanks for joining us today to discuss the results of Diana Shipping Inc. for the third quarter of 2015. [indiscernible] positions within the global drybulk shipping market remain challenging; we have continued to maintain a solid balance sheet to have made the company to stand around it. We also continue to pursue our fleet expansion strategy to position Diana Shipping for future opportunities. To review our financial results the company reported a net loss of $17.4 million and a net loss attributed to common stockholders of $18.8 million for the third quarter of 2015. In the comparable period of 2014 net income was $7.7 million and net income attributable to common stockholders was $6.3 million. Our time charter revenues were $38.9 million for the 2015 third quarter compared to $45.1 million a year ago. The change versus the year ago period was mainly due to decreased time charter rates, partly offset by revenues derived from the increase in our fleet. Diana Shipping continues to maintain a fortress balance sheet, reflecting cash and equivalent of nearly $243 million. Long-term debt including current portion was $576.6 million compared to stockholders equity of approximately $1.24 billion. Reflecting our strategy of maintaining the company’s financial flexibility last month we announced term loan facility of up to $39.7 million with ING Bank m/v London branch. The proceeds will be used to partially finance the acquisition cost of two vessels. In keeping with our sound strategy we have continue to expand our fleet. Today we announced that on November 10th, we took delivery of a newly built 180,960 deadweight capacity drybulk vessel renew or lease. Also we recently agree to acquire from an unaffiliated third party our fee the motor vessel Churchill Bulker a 2011 built capsize drybulk vessel of 179,362 tons deadweight. The vessel will be remain Seattle is expected to be delivered by mid-November 2015. Including renewal lease and the Seattle our fleet will consists of 43 drybulk vessels. In addition we have two new-building Newcastlemax dry bulk vessels and one new-building Kamsarmax dry bulk vessel expected to be delivered in 2016. We continue to manage the fleet in a prudent manner that promotes a balance of time charter maturities and produces a predictable revenue stream. Currently our fixed revenue days are 97% for 2015 and 33% for 2016. In summary, we will continue to take prudent action to enhance shareholder value by maintaining strong financial resources continuing to invest in the growth of our fleet and managing the business in a responsible manner throughout a challenging dry bulk market cycle. With that I will now turn the call over to our President, Stacy Margaronis, for a perspective on industry conditions. He will then be followed by our Chief Financial Officer, Andreas Michalopoulos, who will provide a financial overview. Thank you.

Anastasios Margaronis

Analyst

Thank you, Simeon and good morning to all. Third quarter of this year did not startup too badly but certainly fast especially towards the end of the quarter. In September alone the Baltic time charter averages for capes were down 27.3% and for Panamax was down by 10%. The Baltic Dry Index started the third quarter at 794 and closed yesterday at 599. The Baltic Panamax Index was at 858 on July 1st and closed at 555 yesterday. The Baltic Cape Index started the quarter at 1,251 and yesterday stood at 946. Turning to macroeconomic development. According to sources quoted by Clarkson China is expected to grow by 6.8% this year and around 6.3% in 2016. This has prompted the Chinese Central Bank to reduce interest rates by 0.25% six times in a row, this year alone. During the second week of September, 13 infrastructure projects were approved in China more than double the total number of projects approved in the previous two months combined. This can be seen by many as an indication of the government determination to support economic growth amidst concerns of an economic slowdown in the third quarter of this year. It is also expected by many that investments in the railway sector in China is likely to pick up in the second half of this year, which may support some additional fee demand. Furthermore the government has reduced the minimum capital ratio for investors in fixed assets from 30% to 25% in an obvious effort to encourage investment. Even more relevant for the shipment of commodity is the fact that growth of Chinese industrial output slowed from 6.1% a year ago to 5.7% thus far this year. The expectations of U.S. growth 2.3% for this year and 2.8% in 2016. As for the Euro area…

Andreas Michalopoulos

Analyst

Thank you and good morning. I am pleased to be discussing today with you Diana’s operational results for the third quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2015. For the third quarter 2015, net loss net loss amounted to $17.4 million, net loss attributed to common stockholders amounted to $18.8 million and loss per common share was $0.24. Time charter revenue decreased to $38.9 million compared to $45.1 million for the third quarter of 2014. The decrease was due to the decreased average time charter rate that we achieved for our vessels during the quarter and was partially offset by revenues derived from the addition to our fleet of the vessels G. P. Zafirakis delivered in August 2014, Santa Barbara delivered in January 2015, and Medusa delivered in June 2015. Ownership days were 3,772 for the third quarter 2015 compared to 3,537 for the same period of 2014. Fleet utilization was 99.9% compared to 99.7% for the same quarter of 2014. And the daily time charter equivalent rate was $9,688 compared to $12,295 for the same quarter of 2014. Voyage expenses were $3.1 million for the quarter compared to $2.6 million for the same quarter of 2014. The increase in voyage expenses was due to a $1.1 million loss from bunkers resulting from the redelivery of vessels compared $2.4 million for the same quarter of 2014. Vessel operating expenses amounted to $21.6 million compared to $22 million for the third quarter of 2014 and decreased by 2%. The decrease was due to decreased stores, sales we had and environmental costs. This decrease was partly offset by increased cost due to a 7% increase in ownership days resulting from the enlargement of the fleet. Daily operating expenses were $5,719 for the third quarter of 2015 compared to $6,219 for the same…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Our first question today is from Amit Mehrotra from Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Amit Mehrotra

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning/afternoon gentlemen. Ioannis you’ve talked a lot in the past about the psychology of the market, characterized it before its getting weaker but not at the level that you and the rest of the management team sort of need to be convinced that the recovery is on the way, it certainly seems that the sentiments have taken another let down here in the last two months. I’d like to get your latest view on where you see it today? And also just with related to that if you can also talk about what you are seeing with respect to assets available for sale there has been some charter in the market recently, but there is a big owner vessels that’s dropping a number of vessels on the market and just want to see if that’s consistent with what you’ve seen and what that tells you about where we are in terms of psychology of the market? Thank you.

Ioannis Zafirakis

Analyst

I think that we are in the right direction and things are moving forward the way we have described it should go. The sentiment is going further and further down and moves like the one you’ve described prove that point. What we keep saying is that people should realize that it has to take some time where you have people not believing that there is an end lies at the end of the tunnel. What we know based on past history and based on the cyclicality of our industry is there is a light at the end of the tunnel, but we cannot see. The people that will keep walking in that tunnel and they will be still alive they will reach that point.

Amit Mehrotra

Analyst

Yeah, have you seen though just tangibly an increase in the number of vessels that owners are looking to sell even in a distress market have you seen that recently?

Ioannis Zafirakis

Analyst

Yes indeed, there are a number of vessels that are potential candidates both on the Panamaxes and on the capes and on the Kamsarmaxes. And as we are going along more candidates are coming into the markets. The potential buyers are very few and of course as we are going along that process will accelerate.

Amit Mehrotra

Analyst

Okay, that’s great thank you. One last question for Andreas, just financial question Andreas, can you just give us the remaining new building payments that are not included in the third quarter net debt balance, last time I checked I think it was around $132 million, $133 million if you can just update us on that that would be great? Thanks.

Andreas Michalopoulos

Analyst

Basically I can tell you in detail what remains to be paid for the vessels that are to be built it’s $132.452 million.

Amit Mehrotra

Analyst

Okay very good, thank you gentlemen appreciate it.

Andreas Michalopoulos

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Fotis Giannakoulis from Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Yes, hello and thank you. I want to ask you about this light at the end of the tunnel that Ioannis mentioned about, what makes you believe that this is a cyclical downturn and there is going to be a light at the end of the tunnel compared to a structural problem that might exist in the underlying businesses of the dry bulk sector? In other words, I want to ask you do you think the problem is shifting or the problem might be the steel industry and the coal industry and what it will take in order for the market to recover?

Simeon Palios

Analyst

Well first of all Fotis you have to bear in mind that we are in an industry where supply and demand plays a huge part. And the dry cargo industry in contrast with the container industry a mature industry so we have been watching the numbers very carefully since 1947. And the cyclicality is always there and whenever the market is down we are trying to find new words to describe the market. This time is different from the previous, but I can ensure you is not, is exactly the same the supply and demand. And it will never change. There is a light at the end of the tunnel the problem is as we said all along we don’t know when we will reach this light at the end of the tunnel, but rest assure that one day we will see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Thank you, Simeon. But just…

Simeon Palios

Analyst

Fotis, sorry to interrupt the fact that people start talking like you about structural changes and things are different et cetera is a good starting point for the right forces to take effect and the market to turn. It goes with the psychology that we were saying earlier.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Absolutely and I appreciate that. What I want to ask is that you mentioned earlier that the fleet growth is going to continue growing by around 2% the next couple of years. And I am trying to understand your view on the timing of the recovery, can you tell us what is your demand growth prospect and where this demand is going to come from where do you see the iron ore imports and the steel demand in China going and is this one or two year cycle or is this longer it’s going to take longer time until we’ll see rates becoming profitable again.

Andreas Michalopoulos

Analyst

Yeah Fotis I think that it’s long enough to understand that we don't give the predictions about rates or demand growth or even supply where the numbers are more precise and published and certain. What we do is that we quote what analyst say and as you got demand where you focus now your questioning on. We always take a view that demand is more or less what it is at the time that we make a presentation or a conference call. Up to now as you know we were assuming when we were giving out our analysis was that demand would remain strong. And we want that things would be rather grim if the rate of demand growth was not that people predicted and which people assumed would remain for the next few years. So what happened now as we said earlier was that demand and unfortunately did not grow as fast as people were expecting and as fast as we were seeing up to about two or three quarters ago. And now we adjust our views as for the balance I beg your pardon for the supply and demand balance based on the demand that we have now. If demand grows at a faster rate than we are seeing now and which Clarkson are predicting then the recovery will come sooner. If it remains as it is now, scrapping will be higher, new building ordering will be at the minimum if not disappear completely. And it will take that little bit longer because we will need longer to absorb for the market to absorb rather the tonnage, which is surplus tonnage today. So it’s not the matter what we think is going to happen in the future and how fast recovery will come it’s a matter of what assumptions we make about the growth in demand what assumptions we make for scrapping and what assumptions we make about the new building orders. And I think that we try to explain rather clearly in this short presentation as to what assumptions we feel are reasonable as we got supply as we got scrapping and new building orders. What we really have no idea at all is what demand is going to do. So we have to assume that demand growth remains as it today.

Simeon Palios

Analyst

Fotis if I may add was people keep forgetting and we keep saying that what you should worry and what we should worry about is the imbalance between supply and demand. And many scenarios now they can decrease this imbalance that we have today and many scenarios that can keep the imbalance the same and many scenarios that can increase this imbalance, either at lower levels or at higher levels. You should not expect that to give you [indiscernible]. But I predict this time, but we can explain we can even explain a situation where is there is a big drop in the demand and a further drop bigger drop of the supply where it’s going to create an imbalance at lower level, but higher charter rates.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Thank you. One last question about your investment strategy, I remember in the past you have mentioned that you keep your acquisition pace steady, but at some point you will always want to have cash, you have a very, very large cash reserve I assume over $214 million. With these reserves and the way that the market is developing and your cash flow is developing, how much of this cash is available for acquisitions and has that pace of your acquisition changed at all or it’s the same as previously?

Ioannis Zafirakis

Analyst

The pace is the same; we have explained that our retention is to spend $20 million to $15 million of cash every two to three months for the next year and half. That is the months are easy, we are talking about $80,000 of new investments from fresh cash, from existing cash.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Thank you, Ioannis that’s very clear. Appreciate your answers.

Ioannis Zafirakis

Analyst

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is coming from Magnus Fyhr from GMP Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Magnus Fyhr

Analyst

Sorry. My questions have been answered. Thanks for the presentation.

Simeon Palios

Analyst

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is coming from Spiro Dounis from UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Spiro Dounis

Analyst

Hey, good morning gentlemen. Thanks for taking the question. Just one quick one from me, I guess in the past you have not been shy about I guess investing in Diana Containerships just as you looked at the market [indiscernible] some opportunities in the past and for period that did actually work out in your favor, just sort of wondering as you look at all your opportunities out there obviously vessel purchases little top of the list, but just wondering in terms of nothing more in DCIX or share buybacks how you’re looking at those two options right now?

Ioannis Zafirakis

Analyst

We have not discussed and even of course decided on whether -- on how we want to proceed as regards to your questions. Of course we have matters that are of an interest to us and we have to see what we can do to enhance or to put in better position our investment in Diana Containers and at the same time the share buyback program that you refer to, we evaluate always and we see how we proceed. But for now there has been no discussion about that.

Spiro Dounis

Analyst

Okay, fair enough. Appreciate your color guys. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Amit Mehrotra from Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Amit Mehrotra

Analyst

Yeah. Thanks. I just had a follow-up regarding Simeon your comments about the supply and demand and how it’s not different at all this time versus what you’ve seen in past cycles and I guess I agree with it just based on the fact that the market cannot remain uneconomical forever and clearly the market is severely uneconomical today. And just based on your decades of experience can you just offer some inside on past cycles in terms of how long can the markets remain this level of uneconomical before you see a more profound reaction in the supply? Basically I am just asking if how long can owners endure the current level of pain before they have to make a decision here on basically cashing out of the market.

Simeon Palios

Analyst

You see for example the first response that you’re going to get to that question it has to do with the interest rate for example how expensive is the financing cost and at the moment everyone is telling you of course that the financing cost is very low, the interest rates are very low and the banks are nursing various problems that exist and therefore there is a bigger endurance of an uneconomical market as you described this. And certainly higher interest rate environment will move things faster, but at the same time what is very important together with various macro factors that exist around this period, it has to do with the psychology as well if people are still prepared to burn more and more money thinking that the recovery is eminent. From the moment they will see that the recovery is not eminent then you will have laid up vessel, you will have scrapping and you will have certainly no new building orders. And in the past we have seen periods of a bad market of seven years, we have seen two years, we have seen 10 years, but the question is together with the macro-environment you have to put there the anticipation and the psychology as regard to when they think the market is going to turn.

Anastasios Margaronis

Analyst

Just to give you a quantum of the interest rate in the 80s for example, the dollar interest rate was 23% almost 24% yearly. So that compare with the present interest rate has a difference bearing all together. So that will have a bearing in the nursing of the ships by the banks, but let us not somehow blur the whole situation of the forces try and bring the balance with this, I will call them small parameters effecting the forces to bring the indifferent equilibrium.

Amit Mehrotra

Analyst

All right okay that’s good. One last question from me, it relates to the net debt of the company obviously you’re very conservative on relative to the book capitalization, but I’d like to sort of get your perspective on where you think the company’s net leverage is relative to the value of the assets, because we’ve seen basically the values come down quite significantly and so I would imagine the LTV of the company has increased pretty materially over the last year, year and a half, so can you just talk about where you think Diana Shipping’s LTV is today and based on my math it’s about close to 50%? And could we see a pause in your acquisition strategy until maybe you get a little bit more comfort that we’re not going to see another big letdown in asset values relative to your LTV? Thanks.

Andreas Michalopoulos

Analyst

The numbers are more or less correct what I can say only is that indeed the market values have dropped significantly. The only comment that we can make though is that we have absolutely no issue with our covenants, with our bank covenants so although your numbers are pretty correct and we feel comfortable with those. I don’t think we need to comment further.

Amit Mehrotra

Analyst

Okay, very good. Thank you very much.

Simeon Palios

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We’ve reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to management for any further or closing comments.

Simeon Palios

Analyst

Thank you again for the interest and support of Diana Shipping. We look forward to speak with you in the months ahead. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.