Anastasios Margaronis
Analyst
Thank you, Simeon and very good morning to all the participants for this fourth quarter 2015 Diana Shipping, Inc call. There is no need to remind anyone who is even remotely connected to the dry bulk cargo shipping industry of the current state of the dry bulk market. Just to put things in context, we will remind ourselves that on October 1 the BDI, the Baltic Dry Index stood at 888 and yesterday closed at 332. The Baltic Panamax Index did not very much vessels starting from 704 on October 1 and closing yesterday at 357. The Baltic Cape Index moved during the same period from 1,911 to 174. Now, let's look at macroeconomic development, latest figure show that the Euro zone GDP grew by 1.5% in 2015 in line with expectation while the 28 countries of the European Union grew by 1.8% in 2015. The European Commission’s 2016 all forecast for the Euro zone has been lowered from 1.8% in November 2015 to 1.7% today, due impart to increase global risk including slower growth in emerging markets and in China. However, lower oil prices and the lower euro are expected to support growth in the Euro zone during 2016. In February this year, the China manufacturing PMI remained at 49. This was an improvement December 48.2 but still lower than 2015 indicating economic contracts. China's January trade surplus reached a record of $63.2 billion. We agreed with Commodore Research who believe that even though China has several problems to resolve with this economy large consecutive monthly trade surplus should not be ignored. These surpluses and huge foreign reserve provide a major benefit to the economy and room for the Chinese government to maneuver in its effort to resolve these problem. To put things in the right perspective Commodore Research point out the China foreign reserve are about $3 trillion. The government has according Moody's reportedly being recently growing from the reserves in dealing with various problems and it estimates that reserve have shrunk by 762 billion over the last 18 months. Trade services have been adding an average of $60.1 billion to these foreign reserves each month. The U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Manage Index PMI, in January was 52.7 beating the expectations which stood at 51, overall the U.S. economy grew by 2.4% in 2015 and according to Braemar ACM is expected to grow by similar rate in 2016. According to Braemar ACM, global manufacturing expansion accelerated slightly so far in 2016, but remain weak overall as positive growth in developed market failed to accept the contraction in emerging economy. One of the bright spots of 2015 as far as growth is concerned was India, its economy grew at 7.5% in 2015 according to official figures, even though from October to December 2015 Indian GDP growth dropped somewhat to around 7.2%. The Indian government revised sharply upwards previous quarter growth. Let's look at the freight and time charter earnings now to bulk carriers. The current average Capesize spot market earnings are holding around $2,300 per day while Panamaxs are earning in the spot markets around $2,800 per day. The average 12 month time charter hire stage for a modern Capesize vessel sounds at around 5,250 per day delivery Pacific, while modern Panamax will bring in near $4,500 per day again delivering the Pacific for the same time charter period. Such higher levels do not cover even the operating expenses of the ship concerns let alone covering finance cost. Now active volume, the dismal earnings of large bulk carrier and the negative sentiment prevailing in our industry for awhile now has as expected affected asset values. The three months price trend for modern capesized bulker values has declined by approximately 24% with a modern Panamax value dropping by approximately 20% during the same three months period. So what about the new building order book? According to figures published by Clarkson’s, the bulk carrier order book as a whole consists of 1,571 or so vessels which currently present about 16% of the existing global fleet. The Capesize order book is made up of 240 vessels of 48.5 million deadweight pounds representing about 16% of the global Capsize fleet. There are 333 Panamax vessels on order including Kamsarmax and post-Panamax with a total deadweight capacity of 27.4 million tons representing 14% of the existing global fleet. There will undoubtedly be several cancellations and delivery delays of the 2016 vessels into 2017 and beyond, our estimate of actual compared to scheduled deliveries for this year is around 60%. According to Clarkson’s there are reports that three large Chinese bulk carrier owners, China VLOC Company Limited, China Ore Shipping and high TDC leasing are about to order up to 30 VLOCs. These should suffern for deployment by Valae SA from long-term contractor fleet. If this order is finalized, it would add at least 12 million deadweight tons to the Chinese order book this year, equivalent to 40% of the total bulk carrier tonnage at Chinese yards in 2015. Again, if this all materializes, it will undoubtedly delay somewhat recovery of Capesize vessels. [indiscernible]. According to Gibson’s between 40 to 50 bulk carriers of all sizes are probably laid-up in Asia. About 20 vessels are laid up in illusive stage of which 12 arrived only recently. As a percentage of the total bulker fleet delayed the tonnage is still insignificant for the time being, as for scrapping now. The average bulk carrier age stands of just less than nine year according to Clarkson’s. However, the distressed market conditions are leading downward ships to the scrap yard. Clarkson's continues that in 2012 the average age of bulk carriers sold for scrap was 28 years. This age was poured into 25 years in 2015 and 23 years so far in 2016. For the Capsized vessel, the average scrapping age have dropped 20 years so far this year. In January of this year, Panamax and Capsize sold for scrap only 14 years of age each. This is a new record for a long life. During the last year, 99 Panamax vessels were actually scrapped according to Braemar ACM. In the Capsize vessel, 82 ships were reported sold for scrap during 2015. Clarkson’s predicts that 40 million deadweight worth of bulk carrier tonnage will be scrapped in 2016. This could help reduce fleet growth to less than 2% this year. Again, according to Clarkson’s percentage bulkers of 6.7 million deadweight ton has being sold for demolishing so for this year, at least 20 of which were Capesize bulkers representing approximately 1.8 million deadweight. Around 1.6 million deadweight of Panamax have been sold for scrap thus far in 2016 according to Maersk. Let's turn to fleet growth now. According to Clarkson’s, the bulk carrier fleet increased by 2.4% in 2016 after growing 4.8% in 2014. In 2015, the Panamax fleet increased by 2% and the Capes by only 0.5%. Nearly two thirds will be net bulk carrier fleet growth last year was concentrated in the Supramax, Ultramax sectors which showed 269 deliveries and only 71 deletion. Overall, the bulk carrier fleet is expected by Clarkson’s to expand by between 1% to 2% per year between 2016 and 2018. The assumption here is that deliveries will go at around 40 million to 50 million deadweights per annum in 2016 and 2017 and between 25 million and 30 million in 2018. Removal figures are expected to be around 40 million deadweight this year as mentioned earlier about 34 million into 2017 and 17 million in 2018. Clarkson’s predict that in 2016 the Capsize fleet will reach 311.7 million deadweight representing a near 0.7% increase compared to 2015. In 2017, the prediction is for the Capsize fleet to be 310.2 million deadweight. If it's materializes it will represent a 0.5% shrinkage of the fleet of Cape. For Panamaxs the predicted figures for 2016 are a fleet of 198.3 million deadweight representing 1.5% fleet growth and for 2017 the Panamax fleet could reach 200 million deadweight up by 0.9% compared to 2016. Obviously, these figures incorporate several assumption as regards scrapping and new building deliveries most of which I mentioned throughout the short presentation. [indiscernible]. According to Braemar Shipbroking, when freight rates grows somewhat during the third quarter of 2015, Capsize ships accelerated to an average of 10.9 NOx in balance. This was about half and faster during the first half of 2015, when rates are almost constantly below operating expenses. Late and speeds were also increased as operators wanted to capitalize on the better rates. As rates crashed during the fourth quarter of 2015 and the first weeks of 2016 Capesize ships review their late and speeds, but carried on sailing higher speed in balance. The recent fall in oil and bunker prices has rendered few savings less significant hence this the speed discrepancy. On congestion, Braemar Shipbroking had reported that congestion is the main loading and discharge port came down during 2016 helping drag the sport dry index down to record low levels. The average number of Capesize ships waiting outside ports in China, Australia, Brazil averaged to 156 between January 2011 and June 2015. In contrast, just over 120 ships on average have been lined up at ports in those countries over the past seven months. On bulk carrier demand now, according the Clarkson’s in 2015, the bulk carrier trade grew by just 1% compared to the previous year driven by the impact of slowing Chinese GDP growth on the company's seaborne iron ore imports. Another factor having a negative effect on seaborne, bulk trade has been coal, seaborne coal trade contracted for the first time in almost 30 years largely driven by 30% collapse in Chinese coal import demand during 2015 compared to the prior year. In the base case scenario Clarkson’s predict that the dry bulk trade will increase by about 1% in 2016, followed by growth of 3% per year in 2017 and 2018. Growth in real tonnage demand taking into account tonne miles is not expected to deviate significantly from the volume growth, saving distances in grain, soybean and some industrial commodities are expected to rise while Clarkson’s foresee relatively small changes in iron ore and coal. Ship sailing speeds are not expected to increase much more than they already have until trade rate reached much higher level. Based on the above mentioned assumptions, Clarkson’s expects growth in demand before shorter fleet expansion this year without ruling out vitality in earnings due to factors such as seasonality, trading and fleet productivity. In 2017 and 2018, Clarkson’s expect demand gradually outpace the bulk carrier fleet which could result in a recovery from late 2017 through 2018, closing will determine the pace of end market recovery down the road together with several other factors north east of is the restraint in signing new building contracts by owner especially for the next year or so. Let's look at steel now, according to Gibson’s Shipping Energy world steel production for 2015 was 1.623 billion metric tonnes down 2.8% compared to 2014. The seasonal capacity utilization for the whole of 2015 was 69.7% compare to 73% in 2014. China produced 803.83 million metric tonnes steel in 2015 according to the National Bureaus of Statistics, down 2.3% from a year earlier. This was the first annual fold in Chinese crude steel production in three decades. Gibson’s Shipping Energy predicts that steel production in China may be reduced by further 2% or 3% this year. It is a prediction shared by the Chairman of China's Iron and Steel Association. At the high end of this change, steel production will be reduced between 23 million and 24 million metric tonnes. On iron ore line, according to Maersk Broker, oversupply of iron ore has expanded output by the big low cost miners more than offset cuts in high cost supply mine especially in China. In 2016, Chinese iron ore imports increased by 2% to reach 954 million metric tonnes. A possible explanation for this increase is that the country’s steel mill took advantage of collapsing in iron ore spot prices thus is placing demand for domestic ore replacing it with cheaper imported iron ore. For 2016, Clarkson’s predicts that Chinese iron ore imports will decline by about 2% compared to last year. On a global basis, iron ore imports are expected to decline by about 1% in 2016. In the longer term, Clarkson’s predict that with further downward pressure on iron ore prices there will be an increase in the closes of uneconomic Chinese iron ore mine. Therefore there could be an increase of iron ore import to China of about 30 million to 40 million tonnes from 2017 onwards. Stock price of iron ore in Chinese ports remain high at around 96 million tonnes, with steel production weak these numbers gained more significant compared to the time when the steel industry was consuming ever greater volumes of this raw material on a monthly basis. Let's turn to thermal and metallurgic results. We agree with Clarkson’s that a very vital factor for dry bulk demand will be the trend in Chinese coal imports. This assumptions is made that electricity demand in the country will climb to 2% to 3% per year. The main question becomes at what pace will the capacity of alternative electricity production increase. Hydropower capacity growth would probably be limited in the coming year judging by the number of new hydro dam projects. Even though capacity of other renewal will expand significantly, these will be relatively small in the total production of energy statistics. According to Commodore Research, probably 491 billion kilowatt hours produced in China in December of 2015, 385.6 billion kilowatt hours was produced from thermal coal power stations, only 67.7 billion of electricity produced last December came from hydropower. Thermal coal imports was also stabilized depending on the Chinese government policy to support inefficient domestic coal mine. The Chinese government is planning to close up to 1,000 small Chinese coal mines in the coming year in a bid to remove 60 million metric tons of output. Some new coal fired power plant projects in Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam and elsewhere in Asia to provide a much needed boost to the thermal coal trade. Finally on a worldwide basis, thermal coal imports are expected to remain flat in 2016 compared to last year. Turning to metallurgical coal, Clarkson’s see an upside potential for the coal trade in the form of higher Indian import. Expanding Indian steel production coupled with an increasing number of coal fired power plants may generate higher growth in overall demand for coal down the road as India cannot source all of its coal requirements domestically. India is expected to increase its imports during this year by 6% compared to 2015. Gibson's reports that the import tax cuts from 6% to 4% on Australian metallurgical coal imported to China is now in effect. This had resulted in some additional interest from end users for February and March delivery cargo. However, for 2016 as a whole, Clarkson’s are forecasting that Chinese coking coal imports to will drop by 8%. On a global basis, Clarkson’s expecting on coking coal exports to fold by 1% in 2016 compared to last year when total exports declined by 3%. Grain progress. According Clarkson’s, the global combined wheat and coarse grain trade is projected to drop by 2% in the 2015 to 2016 crop years. The decline is expected to be partly driven by 4% drop in imports into Asia. According to Howe Robinson, combined whole farm exports from Brazil and Argentina are forecasted to reach record level in the 2015 to 2016 season. In addition to large supply, both countries have weak currencies making their export rate competitive relative to other suppliers. Brazil's exports are forecasted to grow record levels using exceptionally good harvest. Argentina's exports are forecasted to be the second largest on record. Exports are expected to remain strong mainly due to larger projected supplies these coming months. The bulk of Argentina's 2015 to 2016 exports are likely to shift towards the middle to the end of the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere. Finally, let's have a look at the seaborne trade outlook. Valae is predicting according to Commodore Research that its S11 B project which is targeting the production of an additional 90 million tons of iron ore per annum will to be completed by the end of 2017. Valae’s production will then reach 430 million tonnes per annum and operations are expected to commence in the second half of 2017. [indiscernible] should be able to handle a massive 230 million tons of iron ore per annum by 2018. All this together with the projected fleet statistics, fleet Commodore Research did a prediction that the Capesize market is a segment of the dry bulk market that has the greatest chance of turning first and possibly reaching levels far above market consensus as either expressed by the FX pay curve. This could happen by 2018. However, Commodore is quick to add that for strength to the current Capesize market a great deal has to go right. The main factor is that China's economy should stabilize together with these productions. Commodore is much less optimistic on the recovery prospects of the Panamaxs, as a reminder for this year at least deliveries will outpace the scrapping volume. Things might start improving next year, but the ground that will need to be covered for equilibrium to return to the sector is quite long and tedious. We generally agree with the above mentioned views and wish to add perhaps as mentioned in our last quarterly conference call, a ground work is being laid primarily for the market to improve. As usual the big question is when? Taking into consideration that compares to say 30 years ago supplying demand statistics shift up and down much faster now than then, it us not reasonable to assume that barring any unforeseen experiment negative development down the road, this crisis should be shorter than what the industry went through in 1980s. How much short is something that they need to decide for themselves, after looking at the pointer and other factors which we have tried to cover up concisely as possible in this presentation. [indiscernible] the company's investment strategy with a specific recovery timetable in mind. What we do know is that we are finally at the bottom of the bulk carrier shipping cycle - work to make this market much better and profitable than it is now. With the company's strong balance sheet, the Diana fleet will keep expanding and the company will emerge from this crisis with a modern future bulk carriers ready to take advantage of improved franchise of earnings and asset values. I will now pass the call to our CFO, Andreas Michalopoulos, who will provide us with the financial highlight of the fourth quarter of 2015 and of the year as a whole. Thanks.