Lee Schram
Analyst · Macquarie
Thank you, Keith. And I will continue my comments with an update on MOS revenue, highlight progress in each of our 3 segments using our 4 strategic initiatives for a perspective on how we progressed in the third quarter and then provide some context looking forward to 2018. Here is an update on our 5 subcategories' framework for marketing solutions and other services. We ended the quarter about $4 million better than the top end of our previous expectations driven by the pull-forward of FMCG revenue highlighted earlier. We continue to provide a directional annual EBITDA margin profile in total and for each of our 5 MOS categories in an annual recurring revenue perspective. Note that we want to be cautious given the extremely competitive landscape in not providing a more precise EBITDA margin profile. But we want investors to understand that as our MOS business approaches 40% of total revenue, our MOS EBITDA margins are also now approaching our overall company average. We estimate that approximately 70% of the MOS revenue is recurring with some of the MOS categories recurring at a rate closer to 95%. In many MOS products and services, we have multi-year customer contracts similar to our FI check contracts, annual maintenance services contracts, recurring monthly fees and long-standing customer relationships. Also note that we expect MOS to total company revenue to be approximately 39% this year, including 17% of total company revenue in the even higher multiple fintech space. First, small business marketing solutions is expected to represent approximately 35% in 2017, with an expected growth of approximately 8% and EBITDA margins well below our overall average. Key fourth quarter 2017 growth initiatives include profitably scaling integrated marketing on-demand solution offers, Web-to-print and seasonal retail packaging, holiday cards and promotional products. Q3 revenue was in line with our expectations. The second category, web services, which includes logo and web design, web hosting, SEM, SEO, e-mail marketing, social and payroll services, is expected to represent approximately 17% in 2017, with expected growth rates of 13% to 14% and EBITDA margins moderately below our overall average. Key fourth quarter 2017 growth initiatives include scaling our integrated Deluxe Marketing Suite across all customers and channels and scaling web and payroll services as well as continuing to assess tuck-in capability acquisitions. Q3 revenue met our expectations. As Keith mentioned, total year web services revenue is now expected to be slightly lower than our prior outlook. As previously expected, small tuck-in acquisitions are not anticipated to close. Moving on to the third MOS category, data-driven marketing solutions. It is expected to represent approximately 20% in 2017, with expected triple digit growth rates and expected EBITDA margins slightly above the overall average. Key focus areas for growth in this category includes scaling direct marketing analytic print services, Datamyx and FMCG. Q3 revenue exceeded our expectations. We closed 2 new wins with top 100 financial institutions in the third quarter and also 35 expansion deals with existing clients, including 10 top 100 financial institutions. The increase in our outlook range was primarily driven by FMCG. The fourth category, treasury management solutions, is expected to represent approximately 14% in 2017 with an expected 18% to 19% growth rate and expected EBITDA margins slightly below our overall average. Q3 revenue met our expectations. We had a notable win in the third quarter with the top 20 financial institution moving from an in-house Remote Deposit Capture solution to a fully outsourced model. The migration started in the third quarter of 2017 and will be complete over the next year. The decrease in our outlook range was driven by some lengthening of sales and contracting cycles as FIs are spending more time assessing on-premise to full outsourcing as well as we have seen some shift from on-premise onetime license revenue to more recurring outsource revenue models, which are preferred, but in the short term, it can lead to less revenue. The fifth category, fraud, security, risk management and operational services, is expected to represent approximately 14% in 2017 with expected declines of around 11% driven by Deluxe Rewards revenue reduction, as highlighted earlier, and EBITDA margins well above our overall average. Key focus areas in this category, in addition to our standard fraud and security offerings, include scaling profitability, strategic sourcing, eChecks, Deluxe Rewards and SwitchAgent. Q3 revenue met our expectations. We are increasing our expected marketing solutions and other services revenue to be approximately $757 million to $762 million in 2017, up from $617 million in 2016, with an expected 23% to 24% growth rate. If achieved, this performance will translate to a total revenue mix of 39% of revenue and up from 33% in 2016 and 30% and 26% the previous 2 years. Now shifting to our segments. In Small Business Services, and as expected, we did not see any notable improvements as the economic climate for small businesses remain sluggish in spite of improved optimism, and we had several weather-related challenges. However, revenue grew 3%. Checks were slightly better than our expectations, while forms and accessories were below our expectations. Average order value and conversion rates increased. Our online major accounts in Canada channels grew over the prior year. We also saw growth in small business marketing solutions and web services. We continue to closely monitor the small business market. Optimism indices declined slightly from 105 in the first quarter to 104 in the second quarter to 103 in the third quarter but remain high by historical standards. Clearly, there remains a boom in optimism for the economy with small businesses, still signaling that they expect better market conditions and, therefore, increased business activity and capital spending. Small business owners overall remain more optimistic right now, however, they want to start seeing some proof that positive changes will come. Clearly, if this more optimistic trend continues, this bodes well for us. However, in summary, although current optimism indices indicate accelerated growing optimism for small business owners, it is important that we see more sustainable trends and then the results manifest in the small business marketplace. For Small Business Services, our 2 focus areas are payments and marketing solutions and web services. First, for payment and marketing solutions, we are focused on core check retention and acquisition and developing incremental retail customer acquisition channels. We ended the third quarter slightly better than our expectations for checks. We also made progress in profitably scaling integrated marketing on-demand solution offers with third quarter revenue on our expectations. Finally, we are focused on scaling eChecks, eDeposit and other payment and workflow solutions, such as variable check printing and our remotely created checks. For eChecks, we continue to look to build out opportunities with financial institutions, medical and insurance payment processors, accounting services and software providers and other payment solution companies. The opportunity we discussed on previous earnings calls regarding a company in the medical and insurance payment processing space is set to begin a rollout in the fourth quarter of 2017. The top 100 financial institution that we mentioned on our second quarter call will begin promoting eChecks through a pilot in their branches in the fourth quarter. And we are in contract talks with another top 100 FI. We also just signed a contract with Hanover Insurance where they will be using eChecks in place of paper checks for claims processing settlements. Our second small business focus area is web services where we are growing digital marketing services through improved customer experience in cross-sell, including the use of our integrated Deluxe Marketing Suite across all customers and channels while continuing to build out partnership and acquisition web services opportunities. In Q3, we also saw a continued cross-sell ramp in logo customers who became web design customers as well with all marketing services offers now being fulfilled through our Deluxe Marketing Suite. In operating services, we are focused on scaling payroll services and continue to evaluate early in business and other operational annuity growth solutions. In Q3, Payce Payroll revenue and profitability was roughly in line with our expectations. Finally, we are focused on continuing to accelerate our brand awareness transformation with a clear linkage to marketing and revenue-generating capabilities. In 2017, we are continuing our small business revolution focus and partnership with Robert Herjavec from Shark Tank as well as our Main Street town makeover. In Q3, we completed our makeover work in Bristol Borough, Pennsylvania, and on September 28, we released the first 2 of 8 webcast series. The balance of these will be released throughout the fourth quarter. We also announced that we will have a third Main Street town makeover next year. We also continue to integrate the experience between smallbusinessrevolution.org to our resource center and then to deluxe.com as we start to focus on driving revenue-generating capabilities. In Financial Services, we have 2 strategic focus areas for 2017. First, retail banking, which includes checks and data-driven marketing solutions. In the third quarter, we saw about a 7% unit decline in checks, which was approximately 1% worse than originally expected, all driven by the hurricanes. For 2017, we expect check units to decline about 5%, declining at a faster rate as the year progresses and overall, slightly higher than 2016 decline rates. We understand it is important for us to maintain low decline rates, but given the size of FS checks business right now and the growth in MOS, every 1% decline in FS checks now only has about a $2 million annualized impact on revenue. Our retention rates remain strong on deals pending in the current quarter. We simplified our processes and took complexity out of the business, while reducing our costs and expense structure. We have now extended all our large contracts through at least the end of 2017, and we are running at a little better pace than the third quarter of 2016 on renewing bank contracts, and we have more competitive opportunities coming up. Today, we are providing at least one of our key FS solutions to 95 of the top 100 U.S. banks. The market for data-driven marketing spend is expected to grow 9% with digital marketing spend by financial institutions expected to grow on a CAGR basis close to 13% through 2020. We are focused here on selectively sourcing value-add data, leveraging it with smart analytics purpose-built solutions to target specific customer segments for specific product offerings with multi-channel capability. Think of it as just the right amount of data and analytics to be a difference maker for our customers. We believe there is no other marketing services provider bringing this deep and sole focus to the Financial Services market right now. Again, third quarter data-driven marketing solutions exceeded our expectations. The second FS strategic focus area is commercial banking and includes scaling treasury management solutions. In treasury management solutions, our largest opportunity is in managing payment acceptance and risk, irrespective of payment type, reconciling and matching payments, resolving exceptions and then posting payments to keep receivables current. This receivables management work of automating and outsourcing workflow innovation and solutions for efficiency and effectiveness fits right in our sweet spot. Our focus in treasury management solutions is on profitably scaling revenue and integrating acquisitions already completed, plus assessing and executing tuck-in acquisitions. For 2017, we expect marketing solutions and other services revenue to be approximately 55% of total FS revenue with the following at the midpoint of the FS revenue range, data-driven marketing solutions, including Datamyx and FMCG, approximately $153 million; treasury management solutions, including WAUSAU, FISC, DSS and RDM, approximately $110 million; and fraud, security and risk management and operational services, approximately $62 million. In Direct Checks, revenue finished right in line with our expectations. We continue to look for opportunities to provide accessories and other check-related products and services to our consumers as well as work on a number of initiatives to create an integrated best-in-class direct-to-consumer check experience. We continue to see a ramp in revenue enhancement synergies through our call center scripting and upsell capabilities as well as synergistic cost and expense reductions. For 2017, we expect Direct Checks revenue to decline in the 9% range driven by continued declines in consumer usage in a sluggish economy and lower reorders from our earlier decision to eliminate marketing expenditures that no longer met our return on investment criteria. We anticipate that marketing solutions and other services revenues, which is primarily fraud and security offers for this segment, to be about 10% of Direct Checks revenue. We expect to reduce our manufacturing costs and SG&A in this segment and continue to deliver operating margins in the low to mid-30% range while generating strong operating cash flow. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter and into 2018, we believe our portfolio is even better positioned to deliver continued sustainable revenue growth as our technologies and sales channels are stronger, our digital technology services offers more mature, our infrastructure better and our management talent is deeper revenue. We have developed a strong platform for long-term growth with the objective of transforming Deluxe to more of a growth services provider from primarily a check printer, thereby changing our product mix and resulting stock price multiple. In 2018, we are planning for what we expect to be a 9th consecutive year of revenue growth of approximately 2% to 4% compared to 2017, including, importantly, some small organic growth. This is expected to produce adjusted diluted earnings per share growing - growth ranging from approximately 3% to 6%, with the assumption that we will continue to invest in brand awareness, have higher interest expense and have a tax rate higher than 2017. In addition, to these revenue and adjusted EPS growth objectives, we see opportunities to pivot to even faster growth in certain MOS areas. So, in 2018, we are planning to incrementally invest approximately $8 million that we will call out as incurred in technology and integrations, primarily in data-driven marketing, treasury management and web services. We also expect operating cash flow growth for a 10th consecutive year. To give some more color on our revenue thinking, we are planning on unit business checks to decline approximately 5% and unit consumer checks through financial institutions to decline approximately 7.5% on a secular basis. On top of this, we have extended all large financial institution contracts through at least 2018, and we have about 25% fewer bank contracts up for renewal in 2018 compared to 2017. And we have more competitive opportunities coming due. In forms and accessories, we expect to expand existing organic initiatives in Shop Deluxe, our Canadian business and grow our dealer and major account businesses. In marketing solutions and other services, we expect revenue growth roughly in the 13% to 16% range. This includes organic growth of approximately 4% to 8%, with about $50 million in new tuck-in acquisitions and $25 million in carryover acquisitions, partially offset by $10 million in other noncomparable items. This would imply a targeted marketing solutions and other service revenue to total revenue mix of approximately 43% for the year or above our stated goal of 40%. We are excited with our progress here, and with a more cooperative economy and even additional acquisitions as catalyst, we could potentially grow marketing solutions and other services even faster. We also expect to our cost and expense reduction initiatives to continue in 2018. Also, as a reminder, the first quarter is traditionally Direct Checks' strongest revenue quarter of the year. As we have seen this year, we could see continued quarterly volatility in data-driven marketing revenue resulting from financial institutions campaign executing - execution timing decisions. We also believe it is extremely important for us to see how the fourth quarter progresses and to closely monitor the marketplace and the economy over the next 3 months before providing more specific outlook details for 2018. Now Terrence, we'll open up the call for Keith and I to take any questions.