Lee Schram
Analyst · Joan Tong from Sidoti & Company. Your line is open
Thank you, Terry. I will continue my comments with an overall market perspective and implications for the lots, an update on MOS revenue, and then highlight progress in each of our three segments using our eight strategic initiatives for a perspective on how we've progressed in the second quarter. And then what we expect to accomplish during the balance of 2016. From an overall macroeconomic perspective, clearly pressures continue with challenges from a sluggish U.S. economy, Brexit, volatile energy, oil and gas prices, and strength of the U.S. dollar, as well as an uncertain central bank policy and not to say we are completely immune from these pressures but we believe the direct impact on us isn't significant. We have developed an incredible execution oriented culture that has operated through various market environments and has delivered strong top and bottom line growth for the past six years. We have built our business on large sized markets and relationships in the small business and financial institutions faces with broad, robust and growing product offers that we believe sets us up extremely well for 2016 and beyond. As we have continued to grow marketing solutions and other services revenues, both organically and through tuck-in strategic acquisitions our revenue mix is significantly diversified now. This has also positioned us to be a solutions-based provider to our customers. Our solutions allow us to address the broad range of our customer's needs and pain points further enhances Deluxe as a trusted part and deeply embeds us in their workflows and ultimately leads to sticky relationships. We expect to increase a broadening and more highly diversified marketing solutions and other services revenue streams to 34% of total revenue mix in 2016 towards our goal of MOS representing 40% of revenue by 2018. Within MOS we also expect over 10% of total company revenue mix to be in the even higher growth multiple than tax basis. In summary, given this perspective we believe that the market is not fully understanding or valuing the exceptional strength and positioning of Deluxe right now. There is an update on our four sub-categories framework for marketing solutions and other services. We ended the second quarter slightly below our expectations and revenue with the mix slightly lower in other financial services and small business marketing solutions. First, small business marketing is expected to represent approximately 40% in 2016 with expected growth of approximately 18% to 20%. Key 2016 revenue growth initiatives include profitably scaling integrated marketing on-demand solution offers with the largest opportunity in major account verticals including retail, healthcare, financial services, hospitality, service franchises, automotive, real estate and telcos. We also see strong growth opportunities in promotional products and holiday cards and specifically in distributor, dealer and major account channels. The second category web services which includes logo and web design, web hosting, SCM, SEO, email marketing, social and payroll services is expected to represent approximately 19% in 2016 with expected growth rates in the mid-single digits. Key 2016 growth initiatives include scaling web services offers through our Deluxe marketing suite across all customers and channels, delivering partnerships and acquisitive opportunities that both double down on existing capabilities and address gaps within our portfolio. We expect to close 2016 with nearly 1.05 million web hosting customers, an increase of 11% from 2015. The third category, fraud, security, risk management and operational services, are expected to represent approximately 13% in 2016 with expected low-single-digit declines. Key focused areas for growth in this category, in addition to our standard broadened security offerings, include performance management by adding bankers' dashboard customers as well as strategic sourcing new financial institution wins. In addition, we continue to see growth from scaling e-checks, including scaling in many areas where we do not sell paper checks today. Finally, other financial services or other financial institution services are expected to represent approximately 28% in 2016, with expected double-digit growth rates. Key growth initiatives here include scaling WAUSAU, Deluxe Rewards and Datamyx. We expect marketing solutions and other services revenues to be approximately $620 million to $630 million in 2016, up from $532 million in 2016, with growth about 16% to 18%. If it's achieves, this performance would translate to a total revenue mix of around 34% of revenue and up from almost 30% in 2015 and 26% and 22% the previous two years. We continue to target increasing marketing solutions and other services as a percent of the total company revenue to approximately 40% by 2018, with checks expected to represent approximately 40% of revenue and forms and accessories expected to represent approximately 20% percent of revenue. Now shifting to our segments; in small business services, we have five strategic focus areas for 2016. Before I review these, including accomplishments in the second quarter and opportunities through the balance of the year, here is a brief small business market and optimism index perspective. As expected, we did not see any notable improvements as the economic climate for small businesses remained sluggish. Optimism indices improved in very small increments monthly through the second quarter ending at 94.5 and at the highest level this year, but remained well below the 42-year average of 98. Small businesses generally remained in maintenance mode, experiencing little growth, although the outlook for business conditions six months out continue to improve. In summary, small business optimism showed modest improvement in the second quarter. So hopefully an encouraging sign for small businesses as we head into the second half of 2016. The good news is that increasing sales continues to be very high on the list of the small business owner's pain points. And our portfolio is significantly robust with many offers to help them here. As the economy recovers with the transformative changes we are making to deliver more services offerings that help small businesses get and keep customers Deluxe is better positioned as an indispensable partner for growth. Now for our focus areas, which I will review from largest to smallest by revenue; first, operate your business products, including checks, forms and accessories. Our primary focus is on driving customer acquisition and retention and improving distributor channel processes and profitability. We ended the second quarter about on our expectation for checks, forms and accessories revenue. We made progress in improving distributor channel processes and profitability. But we have more work to do here in the balance of the year. Second, market your business products, which include small business marketing solutions. Our focus here is on profitably scaling integrated marketing on-demand solution offers with the largest opportunity in major account verticals including retail, healthcare, financial services, hospitality, service franchises, automotive, real estate and telcos. Second quarter revenue was lower than expected at the high end of our previous outlook, driven by some major account rollouts that are still expected to recover and ramp in the second half of the year. We also learned that one of our largest retail vertical major accounts is expected to significantly increase their business with us over the next three years. Third, market your business services, including web services offers and where focus areas are improving operating income by optimizing product portfolio channels and operations, delivering partnerships and acquisitive opportunities that both double down on existing capabilities and address gaps within our portfolio, and providing our integrated Deluxe marketing suite across all customers and channels. Q2 set another logo record, eclipsing last quarter's record by 23%. We also saw a continued strong cross-sell ramp and logo customers who became web design customers as well, with all marketing services offers now being fulfilled through our Deluxe marketing suite. We also added more C Panel capability through another very small tuck-in acquisition, where we simply migrated customers into our technology and strong operating margins. Fourth, operate your business services which includes primarily fraud and security; e-checks and payroll services; and where our focus is on scaling e-checks, assessing adjacent offer extensions like checks and e-checks for e-deposit; variable check printing; and remotely created checks and payroll time and attendance tracking; as well as continuing to evaluate potential partnerships and acquisitions operating services opportunities. Q2 was our best quarter ever for e-checks and we continue to progress opportunities with financial institutions, medical and insurance payment processors, accounting services, and software providers and other document management and payment solutions companies. The fifth small business services focus area is continuing to improve brand awareness. In 2016, we are telling more stories and packaging great advice for small business owners. The public selected Wabash, Indiana, as the winner of a small business revolution Main Street contest. We just completed last week the revitalization to their Main Street business community and upgrades to their public spaces. All of this will be showcased in a new web series debuting on smallbusinessrevolution.org in the fall of 2016. In every episode, experts from Deluxe help one small business conquer commonplace marketing challenges by providing services such as logo design, building their website, or email marketing. Deluxe will also continue to work with Robert Herjavec's investments he makes through Shark Tank. The marketing help and expertise Deluxe provides these entrepreneurs will be featured as case studies on the Deluxe blog. These behind-the-business videos will be featured alongside a host of other small business resources. We see these efforts as a great platform to continue to increase our brand awareness with the small business community. We also further enhanced our partnership with CNBC, where we will serve as an integrated marketing partner for a new series this fall called Cleveland Hustles, where Lebron James and his team will invest in and mentor small businesses through the help of partners like Deluxe. In financial services we have three strategic focus series for 2016. First, retail banking which includes checks, marketing services, and rewards and loyalty. For checks, our focus is on improving retention rates and gaining share. In the second quarter, we saw the rate of decline of checks performed better than expected and only around 4%, driven by stronger performance in the mid- to lower-tier financial institutions space. We do not expect this decline rate to continue for the rest of the year, but we now expect the decline rate to be 4% to 5%, compared to our previous outlook decline rate of 5% to 6% for the year. We had strong overall new acquisition rates and our retention rates were very strong on deals pending in the current quarter. We simplified our processes and took complexity out of the business, while reducing our cost and expense structure. We have now extended all our large contracts through at least year end 2016 and, compared to the end of the second quarter last year to this year, we have about 25% fewer bank contracts left to renew. And we have more competitive opportunities coming up. For marketing services, our focus is on leveraging Datamyx data analytics together with marketing services campaign execution to accelerate outsourced campaign targeting and multi-channel execution. Datamyx revenue was below our previous expectations in the second quarter. And we expect this will continue through the balance of the year. The revenue shortfall is primarily driven by current softness in the alternative consumer online lending market, which has experienced tremendous growth over the last several years. However, this lending segment has seen a pause in growth and this has translated into a pause in marketing to consumers, which is where Datamyx fits in as a provider of prescreened direct mail to lenders who then find consumers who are a match for their products. As an example, mail volumes in May for the largest marketplace lenders were one third of the level seen in the first quarter. Datamyx will continue with our diverse approach to vertical markets, including mortgage lending, automotive finance, home equity, student loans, card, banking, and insurance. We will continue to serve and monitor the online lending market segment. But our exposure here is minimal now, and yet we are still very bullish on not only this space longer term but also the data and analytics space overall. For rewards and loyalty, our focus is on profitably growing Deluxe rewards revenue, which continues to perform very well in the second quarter. The second FS strategic focus area is commercial banking and includes treasury management with our focus on profitably growing WASA revenue and assessing and executing tuck-in acquisitions along with assessing other adjacent opportunities in commercial bank. In the second quarter, revenue was strong, slightly exceeding our expectations. The third FS strategic focus area is performance management and includes scaling banker's dashboard of strategic sourcing. Performance management revenue was slightly below our expectations for the quarter, driven by shortfalls in strategic sourcing. For 2016, we expect marketing solutions and other services revenues to be approximately 43% of total FS revenue with the following at the midpoint of the FS revenue range: marketing services, including Datamyx, $51 million; rewards and loyalty, $33 million; fraud and security, $24 million; treasury management, $93 million dollars; and performance management, including bankers dashboard and strategic sourcing, $15 million. We now expect Datamyx revenue to be approximately $38 million in 2016, down from our previous outlook of $44 million, with strong double-digit EBITDA margins, and we expect Datamyx to be about neutral per share from an EPS perspective. In Direct Checks, revenues slightly exceeded our expectations. We continue to look for opportunities to provide accessories and other check related products and services to our consumers, as well as work on a number of initiatives to create an integrated best-in-class direct to consumer check experience. We continue to see a ramp in revenue enhancement synergies through our call center scripting and upsell capabilities, as well as synergistic cost and expense reduction. For 2016, we expect Direct Checks' revenue to decline in the 7% to 8% range, driven by continued declines in consumer usage and a sluggish economy. We anticipate that marketing solutions and other services revenue which is primarily fraud and security offers for this segment to be about 10% of Direct Checks' revenue. We expect to reduce our manufacturing cost and SG&A in this segment and to continue to deliver operating margins in the low to mid 30% range, while generating strong operating cash flow. As we exit the first half of the year on the hills of a strong performance on a continued sluggish economy, we have made tremendous progress in transforming Deluxe, but we still have many opportunities ahead of us in 2016 as we position ourselves for our 7th consecutive year of revenue growth. Despite the sluggish economy, our financial discipline has enabled us to invest in people, technology, products, services and our brand in order to position ourselves for sustainable revenue growth while continuing to improve profitability and operating cash flow. Our technologies and sales channels are stronger. Our digital technology services offers more mature - our infrastructure, better - and our management talent is deeper and aligned to grow revenue. We know it is critical for us to be able to grow revenue again in 2016 and improve the mix of our marketing solutions and other services revenue, and we are well positioned to make this happen. We have developed a strong platform for long-term growth with the objective of transforming Deluxe to more of a growth services provider from primarily a check printer, thereby changing our product mix and resulting stock price multiple. Now Andrew will open the call up for questions.