Lee Schram
Analyst · Charles Strauzer with CJS Securities
Thank you, Terry. I will continue my comments with an overall market perspective and implications for Deluxe. An update on MOS revenue and then highlight progress in each of our three segments using our eight strategic initiatives for perspective on how we progressed in the first quarter and then what we expect to accomplish during the balance of 2016. From an overall macroeconomic perspective, clearly pressures continue with challenges from a sluggish U.S. economy, volatile energy oil and gas prices, and strength of the U.S. dollar. As well as an uncertain central bank policy and not to say we are completely immune from these pressures, but we believe the direct impact on our is insignificant. We have developed an incredible execution oriented culture that has operated through various market environments and has delivered strong top and bottom line growth for the past six years. We have built our business on large sized markets and relationships in the small business in the small business and financial institutions spaces with broad, robust and growing product offers that we believe sets us up extremely well for 2016 and beyond. As we have continued to grow marketing solutions and other services revenue both organically and through tuck-in strategic acquisitions our revenue mix is significantly diversified now. This has also positioned us to be a solution base provider to our customers. Our solutions allow us to address a broad range of customers’ needs and pain points. Further enhances to us as a trusted partner and deeply embeds us in their workflows and ultimately leads to sticky relationships. We expect to increase a broadening and more highly diversified marketing solutions and other services revenue stream to 34% of total revenue mix in 2016 towards our goal of MOS representing 40% of revenue by 2018. Within MOS we also expect over 10% of total company revenue mix to be in the even higher growth multiple FinTech spaces. In summary given this perspective we believe that the market is not fully understanding or valuing the exceptional strength and positioning of Deluxe right now. Here’s an update on our four sub-categories framework for marketing solutions and other services. We ended the first quarter right in line with our expectations in revenue with mix slightly higher in other Financial Services and slightly lower in small business marketing solutions. First, Small Business Marketing is expected to represent approximately 40% in 2016 with expected growth of approximately 15% to 19%. Key 2016 growth initiatives include profitably scaling integrated marketing on-demand solution offers with the largest opportunity in major account verticals including automotive, Financial Services, healthcare, hospitality, real estate, service franchises and telcos. We also see strong growth opportunities in retail packaging, promotional products and specifically in distributor, dealer and major accounts channels. The second category web services which includes logo and web design, web hosting SEM, SEO, email marketing and social and payroll services finished 2015 at 21% of total MOS revenue and is expected to represent approximately 18% in 2016 with expected organic growth rates in the low single-digits. Key 2016 growth initiative include scaling web services offers through our Deluxe marketing suite across all channels and customers, delivering partnerships and acquisitive opportunities that both “double down” on existing capabilities and address gaps within our portfolio. We expect to close 2016 with nearly 1.05 million web hosting customers, which would be an increase of 11% from 2015. The third category fraud, security, risk management and operational services are expected to represent approximately 13% in 2016 with expected flat performance. Key focused for growth in this category, in addition to our standard fraud and security offerings include performance management by adding Banker’s Dashboard customers as well as strategic sourcing new financial institution wins. In addition, we continue to see growth from scaling eChecks including scaling in many areas where we do not sell paper checks today. Finally, other financial institution services are expected to represent approximately 29% in 2016 with expected double-digit growth rates. Key growth initiatives here include scaling WAUSAU, FISC, Deluxe Rewards and Datamyx. We expect marketing solutions and other services revenues to be approximately $615 million to $630 million in 2016, up from $532 million in 2015, with the growth about 16% to 18%. If achieved, this performance would translate to a total revenue mix of around 34% of revenue, and up from almost 30% in 2015, and 26% and 22% the previous two years. We continue to target increasing MOS and as a percent of total company revenue to approximately 40% by 2018, with checks expected to represent approximately 40% of revenue and forms and accessories expected to represent approximately 20% of revenue. Now, shifting to our segments, in Small Business Services we have five strategic focused areas for 2016. Before I review these including accomplishments in the first quarter and opportunities for the balance of the year, there is a brief small business market and optimism index perspective. As expected, we did not see any notable improvements as the economic climate for small businesses remains sluggish and we also experienced continued foreign exchange headwinds rates continue to deteriorate. Optimism indices fell from year end 2015 monthly through the first quarter of 2016. The index ended the quarter at the lowest levels in over two years and is stuck in a below average rut signaling that the economy is basically just lumping along. The good news is that increasing sales continues to be very high in the list of small business owner’s pain points and our portfolio is significantly robust with many offers to help them here. As the economy recovers with the transformative changes we are making to deliver more services offerings that help small businesses get and keep customers. Deluxe is better positioned as an indispensable partner for growth. Now to our focus areas which I will review from largest to smallest by revenue. First operate your business products, including checks, forms and accessories. Our primary focus is on driving customer acquisition and retention and improving distributor channel processes and profitability. We ended the first quarter about on our expectation for checks, forms and accessories revenues. We made progress in improving distributor channel processes and profitability but we have more work to do here in the balance of the year. Second, market your business products, which includes small business marketing solutions. Our focus areas here are profitably scaling integrated marketing on demand solution offers with the largest opportunity in major account verticals including automotive, Financial Services, healthcare, hospitality, real estate, service franchises and telcos. We saw three nice sized wins in the first quarter with two in healthcare and one in Financial Services. We also saw our best overall web to print quarterly growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2014. Third, market your business services including web services offers and where our focused areas are improving operating income by optimizing product portfolio channels and operations, delivering partnerships and acquisitive opportunities that both double down on existing capabilities and address gaps within our portfolio and providing our integrated Deluxe marketing suite across both customers and channels. Q1 was our strongest logo services quarter ever. Including the previous quarterly record by 18%. We also saw a strong cross-sell ramp in logo customers who became web design customers as well. With all marketing customers offers now being fulfilled through our Deluxe marketing suite. We also added more C-panel capability through a very small tuck in acquisitions where we simply migrated customers into our technology at strong operating margins. Fourth, operate your business services which includes primarily fraud and security, eChecks and payroll services and where our focus is on scaling eChecks, assessing adjacent offer extensions like checks and eChecks for eDeposits, variable check printing and remotely created checks and payroll time and attendance tracking continuing to evaluate potential partnership and acquisition operating services opportunities. Q1 was our best quarter ever for eChecks and we continue to progress opportunities with financial institutions, medical and insurance payment processors, accounting services and software providers and other document management and payment solution companies. We finished integration plans on the two deals that we announced in the fourth quarter and integrated healthcare payment solutions provider and an accounting and Financial Services outsourcing provider and e-check orders should start flowing this quarter. The fifth SBS focused area is continuing to improve brand awareness. In 2016 we will be telling more stories in packaging grade advice for small business owners. As an update to our Q4 earnings call, we have now selected small town finalists for the small business revolution mainstream contests which will be announced next week during national small business week when the public will vote for their favorite town winner. The winning town will receive $500,000 providing a jolt of revitalization to their main street business community and upgrades to their public places. We will capture and showcase the town's transformation and a new web series debuting on small business revolution.org in the fall of 2016. We also just announced a new partnership with Robert Herjavec and the Herjavec Group, providing marketing insights and services to the small businesses he invested in on Shark Tank captured in a new video series called Behind the Business. In every episode, experts from Deluxe helped one of those small businesses conquer common breaks marketing challenges by providing services such as branding, logo design or email marketing. The Behind the Business videos will be featured alongside a host of other small business resources. Deluxe also will work with Robert's company, the Herjavec Group to provide enhanced website optimization and search capabilities. We see these efforts as a great platform to continue to increase our brand awareness with the small business community. In Financial Services we have three strategic focused areas for 2016. First, retail banking which includes checks, marketing services and rewards and loyalty. For checks, our focus is on improving retention rates and gaining share. In the first quarter, we saw the rate of decline of checks performed better than expected, at only around 4%, driven by stronger performance in the mid to lower tier financial institutions. We do not expect this decline rate to continue for the rest of the year, but we have now expected decline rate to be 5% to 6% compared to our previous outlook decline rate of 6% to 7% for the year. We implemented a small price increase at the start of this year. We had strong overall new acquisition rates and our retention rates were very strong on deals pending in the current quarter. We simplified our processes and took complexity out of the business, while reducing our cost and expense structure. We have now extended all our large contracts through at least year end 2016 and compared to the end of the first quarter last year to this year we have about 25% fewer bank contracts left to renew and we have more competitive opportunities coming up. For marketing services, our focus is on leveraging Datamyx, data and analytics together with marketing services campaign execution to accelerate outsourced campaign targeting and multichannel execution. Datamyx is off to a very strong start to the year, as revenue came in above our outlook. From a new customer win perspective, we had 10 new direct customer client wins including circle back lending, a large fast-growing non-bank personal loan lender. For our auto loan growth opportunity, we added multivehicle functionality which expands the view into vehicle ownership beyond just one vehicle at the household. This will enable auto dealerships and lenders to double the size of their marketing audiences. For rewards and loyalty, our focus is on profitably growing Deluxe rewards revenue, which continued to perform very well in the first quarter. The second Financial Services strategic focus area is commercial banking and includes treasury management with our focus on profitably growing WAUSAU and FISC revenue and assessing and executing tuck-in acquisitions along with assessing other adjacent opportunities in commercial banking. In the first quarter, we completely integrated FISC into WAUSAU and therefore moving forward, we will collectively only refer to it as WAUSAU. Revenue met our expectations and we had strong bookings in the first quarter including winning a large three-year licensing contract. The third FS strategic focus area is performance management and includes scaling banker's dashboard and strategic sourcing. Performance management met our expectations for the quarter. For 2016, we expect marketing solution and other services revenue to be approximately 45% of total FS revenue with the following at the midpoint of the FS revenue range. Marketing services including Datamyx $57 million, rewards and loyalty $33 million, fraud and security $24 million, treasury management $89 million and performance management including bankers dashboard and strategic sourcing $16 million. We now expect Datamyx revenue to be approximately $44 million in 2016 up from our previous outlook of $42 million with strong double-digit EBITDA margins. And we now expect Datamyx to be slightly accretive per share from an EPS perspective and to be dilutive in total less than six months from the acquisition date. In Direct Checks, revenue finished right in line with our expectations we continue to look for opportunities to provide accessories and other check related products and services to our consumers as well as work on a number of initiatives to create an integrated best in class direct to consumer check experience. We continue to see a ramp in revenue enhancement synergies through our call-center scripting and upsell capabilities as well as synergistic cost and expense reductions. For 2016, we expect Direct Checks revenue to decline in a 7% to 8% range driven by continued declines in consumer usage in a sluggish economy. We anticipate that marketing solutions and other services revenue, which is primarily fraud and security offers for this segment to be about 10% of Direct Checks revenue. We expect to reduce our manufacturing costs in SG&A in this segment and continue to deliver operating margins in the low to mid 30% range, while generating strong operating cash flow. As we exit the first quarter on the heels of a very strong quarterly performance in a continued sluggish economy, we have made tremendous progress in transforming Deluxe. But we still have many opportunities ahead of us in 2016, as we position ourselves for our seventh consecutive year of revenue growth. Despite the sluggish economy our financial discipline has enabled us to invest in people, technology, products, services and our brand in order to position ourselves for sustainable revenue growth, while continuing to improve profitability and operating cash flow. Our technologies and sales channels are stronger, our digital technology service offer is more mature. Our infrastructure is better and our management talent is deeper and aligned to grow revenue. We know it is critical for us to be able to grow revenue again in 2016 and improve the mix of our marketing solutions and other services revenue and we are well-positioned to make this happen. We have developed a strong platform for long-term growth with the objective of transforming Deluxe to more of the growth services provider from primarily a check printer, thereby changing our product mix and resulting stock price multiple. Now Terry, Ed and I will open the call up, Liz, for questions.