Lee Schram
Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is now open
Thank you, Terry. I will continue my comments with an update on our key revenue growth area, marketing solutions and other services, including some details on the Datamyx acquisition. I will then highlight progress in each of our three segments and finally provide some context looking forward to 2016, including strategic focused areas. Our primary focus continues to be profitable revenue growth and increasing the mix of marketing solutions and other services revenues towards our goal of 40% by 2018. Here we will focus on growing organically as well as continuing to assess potential small to medium-sized acquisitions that complement our large customer base and add new technologies. We have strengthened our channels in small business to include financial institutions, online, retail, wholesale, Safeguard distributors, dealers and major accounts. Deluxe is now more capable of helping small businesses pursue their passion as a trusted provider of a growing suite of products and services of small business needs to market and operate their business, and helping financial institutions with customer acquisition, fraud, security and risk management, and commercial and treasury services offers. Here is some color on our latest acquisition. Datamyx is a premier technology enabled marketing data and analytics provider, specializing and helping financial services institutions to find, convert and grow customers. Their solutions are powered by a proprietary software-as-a-service platform that leverages thousands of attributes, tri-bureau credit, and other risk related data, as well as sophisticated analytics, enable their customers to create measurable marketing programs that attract and engage highly targeted, qualified consumers. Datamyx helps customers maximize response rates, increase marketing efficiencies, growth revenue, and improve customer retention. They have a highly advanced technology platform that provides actionable insights that help maximize return on investment for customer acquisition, cross-selling, and retention marketing strategies. Again, we expect revenue for the balance of 2015 to be approximately $4 million and expect this will be about $0.04 dilutive to adjusted EPS this year. Next year, we expect revenue to be approximately $42 million with strong double-digit EBITDA margins. And we expect Datamyx to be slightly dilutive by about $0.01 per share, and be dilutive in total less than six months from the acquisition date. Strategically, this acquisition strengthens our commitment to the financial institution market, marking another meaningful step forward in our evolution to becoming a more diverse provider of financial services FinTech solutions to our financial institution clients. Datamyx employes a subscription based pricing model that drives repeat sales of data services with nearly 90% of monthly recurring revenue. We believe this provides us with a sizable, sticky, growing, annuitized services business. As of Boca Raton based company, this is a strong fit with our same city Deluxe Rewards base business. Datamyx’s largest customers include Quicken Loans, Commerce Bank, and Capital One. In summary, with access to a proven player in growing markets, this acquisition enhances our competitive position as a FinTech provider, and in line with our strategy will further increase our marketing solutions and other services revenue mix. With this acquisition, we now believe that our two largest segments representing over 90% of our revenue are well positioned for organic growth. We are really excited about this acquisition and welcome Datamyx employees to the Deluxe team. Here is an update on our four sub-categories framework for marketing solutions and other services. We ended the third quarter right in line with our expectations in revenue with mix in the four sub-categories basically in line with our expectations. First, small business marketing is expected to represent approximately 39% of revenue in 2015 with expected growth in the mid-20s this year, driven by scaling web-to-print and marketing solutions offers, as well as the fourth quarter traditionally is our strongest quarter for retail packaging and promotional products. In the third quarter, strong double-digits growth was driven by new wins in the financial advisor, real estate and service franchise association verticals that are using our comprehensive marketing solutions offers. The second category, web services, which includes logo and web design, web hosting, SEM, SEO, email marketing, social and payroll services, is expected to represent approximately 21% of revenue in 2015, with expected decline rates in the mid-single digits, but low single-digit growth excluding our earlier announced decision to exit some unprofitable revenue in the SEM/SEO space and the impact of foreign exchange rates. In the third quarter, we saw strong double-digit growth in direct web services offers and growth on a constant currency basis and payroll services. We closed the third quarter with approximately 910,000 web hosting customers. We also acquired Jumpline, a very small web services business that provides us with strategic control panel or commonly called C-panel technology capabilities. The third category, fraud, security, risk management and operational services is expected to be about flat in 2015 and represent approximately 16% of revenue. Key focused areas for growth in this category, in addition to our standard fraud and security offerings include performance management by adding Banker’s Dashboard customers including tablet and new credit solution offers as well as strategic sourcing new financial intuition wins. In addition, we also expect growth from scaling eChecks with opportunities ranging from adding eChecks to our distributor, dealer and major accounts channels to also scaling in many areas where we do not sell paper checks today. Q3 was our best revenue quarter ever for eChecks, and we have opportunities with larger financial institutions, paper rebate, medical and insurance clearing houses and other document management and payment solution companies. 20% of all eCheck customers are new customers, who have not purchased a paper check from Deluxe in the last six years. Finally, other financial institution services are expected to represent approximately 24% of revenue in 2015, with expected growth rates in very strong double-digits. Key growth initiatives here include adding new financial institution customers and targeting and campaign services, and scaling Deluxe Rewards, Wausau financial services, and our latest acquisition Datamyx. We expect marketing solutions and other services revenues to be approximately $533 million in 2015, up from $427 million in 2014, with growth of approximately 10% excluding the Wausau acquisition. If achieved, this performance would translate to a total revenue mix of around 30% of revenue, up from almost 26% in 2014, and 22% and 19% the previous two years. We continue to target growing marketing solutions and other services as a percent of total company revenue to approximately 40% by 2018 with checks expected to represent approximately 40% of revenue and business products expected to represent approximately 20% of revenue. Now, shifting to our segments, in small business services in the quarter, as expected, we did not see any notable improvements as the economic climate for small businesses remains sluggish and foreign exchange rates continue to deteriorate. Revenue grew 4% and was negatively impacted by foreign exchange headwinds, as well as challenges from the migration to a new eCommerce technology platform with checks and forms, the primary product shortfall drivers, to the high-end of our revenue outlook. Results from targeted customer segmentation in the call center improved and average order value and conversion rates improved. Our online Safeguard distributor, dealer and major accounts channels grew revenue over the prior year. We also saw growth in small business marketing solutions, web and payroll services, while SEM/SEO services declined in line with our earlier decision to exit some unprofitable channels. Again, we ended the quarter with approximately $910,000 web hosting customers. We continue to closely monitor the small business market and so far the economic indices appear to be consistent with our previous expectations and what we planned into our outlook. Optimism indices increased slightly to start the quarter in July and continued to improve in August, but basically ended unchanged in September, rising only 0.2 points. Optimism momentum in the fourth quarter of 2014, shifted downward in the first quarter and then continue to shift further downward in the second quarter, but improved slightly in the third quarter. The outlook on business conditions expectations continues to be negative, and the percentage of small businesses planning capital outlays over the next three to six months ended at a weak 25% reading. In summary, current optimism indices remains sluggish. The good news is that other than taxes and regulation, increasing sales continues to be a small business owner’s number one pain point and our portfolio is significantly more robust now with many offers to help them here. As the economy recovers with the transformative changes we are making to deliver more services offerings that help small businesses get and keep customers. Deluxe is better positioned as that indispensable partner for growth. In financial services, we saw the rate of decline of checks perform just over 6%. We continue to expect the unit decline rate for the year will be just over 6%. We had strong overall new acquisition rates and our retention rates remain strong on deals pending in the current quarter. We simplified our processes and took complexity out of the business while reducing our cost and expense structure. We made progress again in the quarter in advancing non-check marketing solutions and other services revenue opportunities. Wausau revenue was approximately $19 million, which met our expectations, and we had strong bookings in the quarter, helping us to build backlog. Some that will rollout in the fourth quarter, but most that will rollout in 2016. We already have about 6% higher backlog at the end of Q3 this year compared with last year that is targeted for 2016 revenue. So we are encouraged about growing Wausau revenue in 2016. Deluxe Rewards continued to perform very well in the third quarter, including starting a new customer pilot opportunity. For 2015, we expect non-check marketing solutions and other services revenues to be approximately 37% of total FS revenue, driven by Wausau revenue of approximately $75 million; fraud, security risk management and operational services revenue of approximately $40 million; Deluxe Rewards revenue of approximately $30 million; and targeting campaign and activation services revenues of approximately $23 million. Overall, we continue to be pleased with the Wausau acquisition. Wausau was $0.02 accretive to diluted – to adjusted diluted EPS in the third quarter and we expect it to be slightly accretive in the fourth quarter and for the full year. In Direct Checks, revenue met our expectations. We continue to look for opportunities to provide accessories and other check-related products and services to our consumers, as well as work on a number of initiatives to create an integrated best-in-class direct-to-consumer check experience. We continue to see a ramp in revenue enhancement synergies through our call center scripting and up-sell capabilities, as well as synergistic cost and expense reductions. Our direct checks expectations for the year are slightly better. Previously, we guided to a decline of 6% to 7%, but now we believe the decline will be closer to 6%, driven by continued declines in consumer usage in a sluggish economy. We anticipate that marketing solutions and other services revenue, which is primarily fraud and security offers for this segment, to be about 10% of Direct Checks revenue. We expect to reduce our manufacturing cost and SG&A in this segment and continue to deliver operating margins in the low-to-mid 30% range, while generating strong operating cash flow. As we exit the third quarter on the heels of a strong performance in a continued sluggish economy, we have made tremendous progress in transforming Deluxe, but we still have many opportunities ahead of us. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter and into 2016, we believe our portfolio is even better positioned to deliver continued sustainable revenue growth. As our technologies and sales channels were stronger; our digital technology services more mature; our infrastructure better; and our management talent is deeper and aligned to grow revenue. We have developed a strong platform for long-term growth with the objective of transforming Deluxe to more of a growth services provider from primarily from primarily a check printer, thereby changing our product mix and resulting stock price multiple. 2016 we are planning for what we expect to be a seventh consecutive year of revenue growth of approximately 4% to 6% including the Datamyx acquisition are almost 2% to 3% organic growth compared to 2015. This is expected to produce adjusted diluted earnings per share growth ranging from approximately 5% to 8%, including an expected $0.01 per share dilution from Datamyx. With the assumption that we will invest more in brand awareness, benefit from a reduction in interest expense and have a tax rate roughly comparable to 2015. To give some more color on our revenue thinking. We are planning on consumer checks through financial institutions to decline approximately 6% to 7% on a secular basis. On top of this, we have extended all large financial institution contracts through at least 2016, with the exception of one that we are working to extend. And we have about 20% pure community bank contracts upper renewal in 2016 compared to 2015. And we have more competitive opportunities come in due. In business products, we expect to expand existing organic initiatives in shop Deluxe, our Canadian business into add distributors, dealers and major accounts. In marketing solutions and other services, we expect organic revenue growth roughly in the low double-digits. To give some more color here under the thinking. If we annualize 2015 expected revenue organically grow roughly in the low double-digits and add revenue from the Datamyx acquisition is full imply a targeted marketing solution and other services revenue to total revenue mix of approximately 34% for the year. We are excited with our progress here. And with the more collaborative economy and continued possible additional tuck-in acquisitions with catalyst, we could potentially grow marketing solutions and other services even faster toward our goal of 40% of revenue mix by 2018. We also expect our cost and expense reduction initiatives to continue in 2016. From a housekeeping standpoint each quarter in 2016 has the same number of business days as of 2015. Also, as a reminder, the first quarter is traditionally Direct Checks strongest revenue quarter of the year. And in line with our earlier comments on Datamyx’s dilution, we expect Datamyx to be dilutive to Q1 by approximately $0.01. It is extremely important for us to see how the fourth quarter progresses and to closely monitor the marketplace and economy over the next three months before proving more specific outlook details for 2016. Finally, we are introducing today eight strategic focused areas including three for financial services and five for small business services that we will provide regular update on through the balance of 2016. Here is a little color of each starting with financial services. The first strategic focused area is retail banking and includes checks, marketing services, and rewards, loyalty. For checks, our focus is on improving retention rates and gaining share. From marketing services, our focus is on leveraging, Datamyx data and analytics together with marketing services campaign execution to accelerate outsourced campaign targeting and multi-channel execution. For rewards and loyalty, our focus is on profitably growing Deluxe Rewards revenue. The second FS strategic focus area is commercial banking and includes treasury management and profitably growing Wausau revenue and assessing and executing tuck-in acquisitions along with assessing other adjacent opportunities in commercial banking. The third FS strategic focus area is performance management and includes scaling, Banker’s Dashboard and strategic sourcing. Next for small business services, we have created a four quadrant matrix to frame four of the five strategic focused areas. First, for market your business products which includes small business marketing solutions, our focused areas are profitably scaling integrated marketing on demand solution offers. With the largest opportunity and major account verticals including automotive, financial services, healthcare, hospitality, real estate, service franchises and telcos. Second, market your business services which includes web services offers, our focused areas are improving operating income by optimizing product portfolio, channels and operations. Delivering partnerships an acquisitive opportunities that will “double down” on existing capabilities and address gaps within our portfolio like cPanel where we just completed the Jumpline technology tuck-in acquisition, and providing our integrated Deluxe marketing suite across all customers and channels. Third, for operate your business products which includes checks, forms and accessories, our customer acquisition and retention, and improving Safeguard distributor process and profitability. Fourth, operate your business services which includes primarily fraud and security, eChecks and payroll services, and where our focus is on scaling eChecks, assessing adjacent offer extensions like checks and eChecks for eDeposit, variable check printing and remotely created checks and payroll time tracking and billing as well as continuing to evaluate potential partnership and acquisition operating services opportunities. The fifth small business services opportunity is continuing to improve brand awareness. Before I give a little sense of where we are headed in 2016, let me first share a current progress update. Our intent for 2015 has been to raise brand awareness by leveraging our 100-year anniversary through a purposeful content-based campaign. To celebrate our 100th year, we are telling the stories of 100 small businesses across the country through a documentary and photo essay series. These stories have been released throughout the year via our social channels and live on SmallBusinessRevolution.org. We have now released nine mini documentaries and 77 photo essays through the third quarter. The reaction has been very positive and has resulted in quite a bit of earned media attention with nearly 1.4 billion impressions and 430 new stories on radio, television and print. We also released a full length documentary at the end of September emphasizing the importance of small business in America. This 25 minute film featured small business owners from our 100 stories, as well as key small business experts including the U.S. Small Business Administration Maria Contreras-Sweet, David Bobbitt from SCORE and other small business authors and experts. Robert Herjavec from Shark Tank was also featured in the documentary and joined us in the small business revolution providing great advocacy and visibility for our movement with the media and with social media. We are very pleased with our results and will continue to build momentum around the small business revolution in the fourth quarter and into 2016. In 2016 we will be telling more stories and packaging great advice for other small business owners from the 100 businesses that we featured in 2015. We will also be producing a web series with Robert Herjavec that showcases small businesses, while incorporating marketing lessons from Deluxe. Another exciting partnership with Robert as their key has enlisted Deluxe to provide marketing support to the businesses key investing on Shark Tank. We see these efforts as a great platform to continue to increase our brand awareness with the small business community. Now Candis, will pass and then Terry, Ed and I will open the line up for any questions.