Lee J. Schram
Analyst · CJS Securities
Thank you, Terry. I will continue my comments with an update on our key revenue growth area, marketing solutions and other services, including perspectives on our recent VerticalResponse acquisition and insights to date on our new brand awareness campaign. I will then highlight progress in each of our 3 segments, including a perspective on what we hope to accomplish during the balance of 2013. Our primary focus in 2013 continues to be profitable revenue growth and increasing the mix of marketing solutions and other services revenues. The most significant revenue growth opportunities continue to be in marketing solutions and other services. We will continue to assess potential small to medium-sized acquisitions that complement our large customer bases with a focus on marketing solutions and other services. We are adding more products and services to our portfolio and believe our strong, small business channel reach, including financial institutions, online, retail, wholesale, feet-on-the-street distributors, dealers, partners and major accounts, is a differentiator for us in the marketplace. Deluxe is now more capable of helping small businesses pursue their passion as a trusted provider of a growing suite of products and services a small business needs to market and operate their business, and helping small to midsize financial institutions with customer acquisition, risk management and other value-add services offers. Here is an update on our 4 subcategories framework for marketing solutions and other services. We ended the second quarter right in line with our expectations for revenue and mix in the 4 subcategories basically in line with our expectations. First, small business marketing is expected to represent approximately 41% of revenue in 2013, with expected growth in the upper teens this year. We saw strong double-digit growth in the second quarter in the Web-to-print space as we cross-sold to our customer base and added new customers through distributors, dealers and major accounts. The second category, Web services, which includes logo and Web design, Web hosting, SEM, SEO, e-mail marketing, social and payroll services, is expected to represent approximately 32% of revenue in 2013, with expected organic growth rates in the mid-teens, although expected reported growth will be closer to 30%, driven by the VerticalResponse acquisition. We saw a little stronger rollout ramp in wholesale Web telco major accounts in the second quarter from the deals that we closed in 2012, which we expect will roll out throughout 2013. We saw growth from the prior year in cross-selling bundled presence packages to our retail base and added more new customers, resellers and partners. We continue to reduce Web design and SEM campaign cycle times, and churn rates remain low. We added payroll services customers, and many customers added new features, such as time and attendance applications. This category also is our focus area for tuck-in acquisitions, with VerticalResponse being a good example. VerticalResponse brings us a critical mass customer base, on top of what we believe was a gap in our services portfolio in the promote and market space. By expanding our portfolio with comprehensive promotion and marketing capabilities, we can now more effectively achieve our strategic goal of helping small businesses acquire more customers. VerticalResponse's primary offer is e-mail marketing, and they also provide social media and content management tools that make it easier for small businesses to manage communications across multiple channels. They have created a new integrated platform, providing a do-it-yourself entry point for all products and services and allowing do-it-for-me agent provisioning, and product extensions from e-mail to social to activation in an emerging fourth quarter expected release of a freemium model. They have approximately 45,000 active paying customers, both direct and indirect, a low churn rate and a seasoned management team. We expect their emerging freemium model will allow us to spur a mass trial and subsequent upsell and cross-sell penetration capability, first, into our retail, but then into our wholesale customer base. We closed the second quarter with over 625,000 Web hosting customers, and we expect to close 2013 with nearly 750,000 Web hosting customers or up 36% from 2012 as we expect migrations to ramp through the balance of the year. The third category, fraud, security and risk management services, are expected to represent approximately 22% of revenue in 2013, with expected growth rates in the high single digits. We had a strong second quarter as we added program services for new community banks and fraud and security offers for small businesses and direct to our consumers. We added Banker's Dashboard customers as well. Finally, other financial institution services are expected to represent approximately 5% of revenue in 2013, with very strong double-digit expected growth rates. Key growth initiatives here include adding new Cornerstone and SwitchAgent clients. We expect marketing solutions and other services revenues to be approximately $345 million to $355 million in 2013, up from $285 million in 2012, with organic growth in the mid-teens. If achieved, this performance would translate to a total revenue mix of around 22% of revenue, including a year-end exit run rate above 25% of revenue, towards our 25% mix goal and up from 19% in 2012 and 16% and 13% the previous 2 years. Now shifting to our new brand awareness campaign. We have completed 2 waves so far this year and have outperformed publishers' benchmarks for online ad click-through rates. We have seen strong traffic to deluxe.com, up over 20%, and YouTube views of the commercials are now approaching 1 million. Inbound call leads are converting to sales at a very strong rate of 20%. Based on the positive results to date, we plan to stay the course and continue our media efforts at various times through the balance of 2013 and focused first. We will also continue to modify deluxe.com sell paths for websites, printing and online marketing, which we expect will continue to improve conversion rates. For competitive reasons, we will not disclose investment levels other than to indicate it is a multimillion-dollar campaign, and all planned spending is included in our current outlook ranges. We have established return on investment criteria based on the number of impressions, expected site visits and online leads. We will use these results against our metrics to guide us as we progress on this new brand journey. It is important to remember this campaign is primarily focused on improving brand awareness and not a targeted direct-response campaign. We completed a brand awareness customer study after running our second media wave in the second quarter, and we saw awareness of the Deluxe brand jump considerably. Just some examples. Unaided awareness of companies that offer products and services to help manage and run small businesses increased significantly, including doubling among Deluxe customers, while familiarity with Deluxe website design and hosting services improved significantly, from 47% to 62%. Now shifting to our segments. In Small Business Services in the quarter, as expected, we did not see any notable improvements as the economic climate for small businesses remained sluggish. We had strong performance as revenue grew 8%. Checks and forms performed well. Our results from targeted customer segmentation in the call center improved. New customers from our financial institution, Deluxe Business Advantage Referral Program and through our direct response campaigns remained strong. Response rates, average order value and conversion rates improved. Our online Safeguard distributor, major accounts and dealer channels grew revenue over the prior year. We also saw strong growth in Web, SEM and payroll services. Again, we ended the quarter with over 625,000 Web hosting customers. We continue to closely monitor the small business market. Optimism indices increased in May -- in April and May, with May's readings the second highest since the recession started and a 12-month high. But as the quarter ended in June, there was a bit of a drop-off in optimism. Pessimism about the economy and the future moderated, and sales expectations are trending better. More owners are planning to hire in the coming months, and more new firms are starting than failing right now. They continue to spend cautiously, more in maintenance mode, scrutinize purchases and experience tight cash flow. In summary, current optimism indices have been sluggish but trending upward the first half of the year. However, they remain in recessionary levels. The good news is that other than taxes and regulation, increasing sales continues to be a small business owner's #1 pain point, and our portfolio is significantly more robust now with many offers to help them here. As the economy recovers, with the transformative changes we are making to deliver more services offerings that help small businesses get and keep customers, Deluxe is better positioned as that indispensable partner for growth. Our focus for 2013 is on accelerating our brand transformation and significantly improving overall market awareness while institutionalizing our brand promise for our customers; profitably integrating and extending our marketing solutions and other services portfolio, including our recent VerticalResponse acquisition; effectively acquiring and retaining customers across multiple channels; building a more effective retail services sales model; scaling major accounts and strategic channel partner relationships; and improving our customer experience. An example of an exciting strategic partner relationship is our recently announced partnership with VerifyValid. VerifyValid is a leading provider of electronic payment solutions that transforms how businesses and banks use and accept checks. Small business customers can securely make and receive check payments online, utilizing a virtual lockbox and virtual remote deposit capture system. We are introducing the electronic online payment solution to a portion of our customer base and have already seen strong initial acceptance and paying customers. In Financial Services, we have seen a year-to-date secular check decline rate of about 5.5%, with the decline rate higher in the second quarter versus our outlook of 5% to 6%, with rates consistent across both the national and community segments. We had strong overall new acquisition rates, and our retention rates remain strong on deals pending in the current quarter, well in excess of 90%. We are pleased to announce that we anticipate starting the migration soon with HSBC, which is the new client that we referenced on our first quarter call. In addition to gaining the consumer check business, this is an exciting opportunity for our DBA program as well, given HSBC's strong focus and commitment to small business customers. We are also beginning to work several more competitive opportunities. We simplified our processes and took complexity out of the business while reducing our cost and expense structure. Although the decline rate was a little higher in the second quarter, so far, in July, we have seen decline rates closer again to the 5% -- to 5%. And we are planning for check units to remain within a decline range of around 5% to 6% for the balance of the year. We also expect retention rates in excess of 90% on deals pending this year, and with approximately 2/3 of our 2013 community bank contract renewals already completed by the end of the second quarter, we are well ahead of the linear pace for the year. We made progress again in the quarter in advancing marketing solutions and other services revenue opportunities. Revenue grew over last year in these non-check services, which include customer acquisition, risk management and other profitability offers. In customer acquisition and specifically, our Cornerstone direct marketing analytics offer, we saw continued growth in new financial institutions and reported our highest quarterly revenue ever. Our small -- our all-branch rollout with a large financial institution for our SwitchAgent offering continues to gain momentum, and we implemented in the second quarter another nice-size branch rollout with a non-Deluxe check financial institution. We continue to believe it will be an important tool for banks beyond acquisition to anchoring profitable clients. Financial institutions that use SwitchAgent are realizing a more profitable new account base due in part to the role SwitchAgent -- due in part to the role of SwitchAgent in activating key payment services. Banker's Dashboard also continued to perform well in the second quarter. As you can see, momentum continues to build, and we expect strong double-digit growth in these marketing solutions and other services in 2013. In Direct Checks, revenue was slightly below our expectations, driven by lower initial orders and reactivations. We believe some of this is related to the timing of advertising placements. We continue to look for opportunities to provide accessories and other check-related products and services to our consumers. Although we have made significant progress with the Custom Direct integration, we are still working on a number of initiatives to create an integrated best-in-class direct-to-consumer check experience. As an example, we now have one integrated process producing all direct-to-consumer checks. We continued to see a ramp in revenue enhancement synergies through our call center scripting and upsell capabilities, as well as synergistic cost and expense reductions. For 2013, we expect Direct Checks revenue to decline in the high single digits, driven by continued declines in consumer usage in a sluggish economy. We expect to reduce our manufacturing costs and SG&A in this segment and hold our operating margins in the 30% range while generating strong operating cash flow. As we exit the second quarter on the heels of a very strong quarterly performance and a continued sluggish economy, we have made tremendous strides in transforming Deluxe, but we still have many opportunities ahead of us in 2013. Our strong first half of the year positions us well to grow revenue in 2013 for the fourth consecutive year. We are conservatively not expecting the economic climate to improve throughout the balance of the year until we get better clarity as the third quarter unfolds. If the economy improves, we should have upside in revenue. At the same time, we will not take our eyes off the cost reductions and process improvements, and we expect to continue to generate strong cash flows and provide a very attractive dividend. We have developed a strong platform for long-term growth, with the objective of transforming Deluxe to more of a growth services provider from primarily a check printer, thereby changing our product mix and resulting stock price multiple. Now Dave, we'll open the line, and Terry and I will field questions.