Lee J. Schram
Analyst · CJS Securities
Thank you, Terry. I will continue my comments with an update on our key revenue growth area, marketing solutions and other services, and insights to-date on our brand awareness campaign. I will then highlight progress in each of our 3 segments, including a perspective on what we hope to accomplish in the fourth quarter. And finally, provide some context looking forward to 2014. Our primary focus for the balance of the year continues to be profitable revenue growth and increasing the mix of marketing solutions and other services revenues, which represents our most significant revenue growth opportunity. We will continue to assess potential small to medium-sized acquisitions that complement our large customer bases with a focus on marketing solutions and other services. We are adding more products and services to our portfolio and believe our strong small business channel reach, including financial institutions, online, retail, wholesale, feet on the street distributors, dealers, partners and major accounts, is a differentiator for us in the marketplace. Deluxe is now more capable of helping small businesses pursue their passion as a trusted provider of a growing suite of products and services a small business needs to market and operate their business. And helping small to midsized financial institutions with customer acquisition, risk management and other value-add services offers. Here is an update on our 4 subcategories framework for marketing solutions and other services. We ended the third quarter slightly below our expectations for revenue, primarily driven by slower rollouts in the wholesale services space than anticipated. First, small business marketing is expected to represent approximately 40% of revenue in 2013 with expected growth in the low-teens this year. We saw low-teens growth in the third quarter in this category as we cross-sold to our customer base and added new customers through distributors, dealers and major accounts. The second category, web services, which includes logo and web design, web hosting, SEM, SEO, e-mail marketing, social and payroll services, is expected to represent approximately 32% of revenue in 2013 with expected organic growth rates in the low-teens, although expected reported growth will be closer to 30%, driven by the VerticalResponse acquisition. We saw a little slower rollout ramp in wholesale web telco major accounts in the third quarter than anticipated. We saw growth from the prior year in cross-selling bundled presence packages to our retail base and added more new customers, resellers and partners. We continue to reduce web design and SEM campaign cycle times, and churn rates remain low. We added payroll services customers and many customers added new features, such as time and attendance applications. VerticalResponse revenue was in line with our expectations and operating income was better. We also are already seeing cross-sell of services like logo design and web services into the VerticalReponse customer base. Our new platform supporting a premium model in VerticalResponse is now expected to be released in the early part of next year. Again, we expect this emerging premium model will allow us to spur a mass trial and subsequent upsell and cross-sell penetration capability, first, into our retail, but then into our wholesale customer base. We closed the third quarter with approximately 665,000 web-hosting customers, and we expect to close 2013 with nearly 725,000 web-hosting customers, or up 32% from 2012, as we expect more migrations in the fourth quarter. The third category, fraud, security and risk management services, are expected to represent approximately 22% of revenue in 2013 with expected growth rates in the mid-single digits. We had a solid third quarter as we added program services for new community banks and fraud and security offers for small businesses and direct to our consumers. We added Banker's Dashboard customers as well. Finally, other financial institution services are expected to represent approximately 6% of revenue in 2013 with very strong double-digit expected growth rates. Key growth initiatives here include adding new targeting and campaign services and SwitchAgent clients. We expect marketing solutions and other services revenues to be approximately $340 million in 2013, up from $285 million in 2012, with organic growth in the low-teens. There are 2 drivers of the lower expected revenue from our prior outlook range. First, given the more sluggish economy, we have seen lower spend on more discretionary marketing items like promotion and apparel. And we expect this trend to continue in the fourth quarter, which is normally a seasonally higher quarter. Second, as mentioned earlier, we saw slower wholesale web services telco rollouts in the third quarter that, again, we expect to carry over into the fourth quarter. However, we have confidence that these rollouts will come in the first quarter 2014, and this will have a positive impact on 2014. If achieved, this performance would translate to a total revenue mix of almost 22% of revenue, including a year end exit run rate around 25% of revenue, towards our 25% mix goal, and up from 19% in 2012 and 16% and 13% the previous 2 years. In spite of a reduction in our outlook for marketing solutions and other services revenue, we are still guiding near the high-end of our previous revenue outlook, primarily driven by stronger small business checks and forms and higher Financial Services rate and conversion activity than expected in our previous outlook. Now shifting to our brand awareness campaign. We just completed our third wave and have outperformed publishers' benchmarks for online ad click-thru rates. We have seen strong traffic to deluxe.com continuing to be up to 20%, and total video views of all commercials are now close to 8.8 million over all 3 waves. Inbound call leads are converting to sales at a very strong rate, more than 4x that of our more conventional lead sources. Our next step on our brand journey is to complete another brand awareness customer study in the fourth quarter. We will use the results of this in our return on investment criteria to help determine focus areas and spend levels as we exit the year and enter 2014. Now shifting to our segments. In Small Business Services in the quarter, as expected, we did not see any notable improvement as the economic climate for small businesses remained sluggish. We had strong performance as revenue grew almost 9%. Checks and forms performed quite well. Our results from targeted customer segmentation in the call center improved. New customers from our financial institution, Deluxe Business Advantage Referral Program, and through our direct response campaigns remain strong. Average order value and conversion rates improved. Our online Safeguard distributor, major accounts and dealer channels grew revenue over the prior year. We also saw strong growth in web, e-mail marketing and payroll services. Again, we ended the quarter with approximately 665,000 web-hosting customers. We continue to closely monitor the small business market. Optimism indices in the third quarter remained roughly flat each month from second quarter readings, so no real new direction up or down right now. Expectations for improved business conditions over the next 6 months did deteriorate, but there was a noticeable increase in the number of small business owners expecting higher sales as the third quarter close. More owners are planning to hire in the coming months, and more new firms are starting rather than failing right now. They continue to spend cautiously, more in maintenance mode, scrutinize purchases and experience-type cash flow. In summary, current optimism indices have been sluggish and trending flat over the last several quarters. The good news is that other than taxes and regulation, increasing sales continues to be a small business owner's #1 pain point, and our portfolio is significantly more robust now with many offers to help them here. As the economy recovers with the transformative changes we are making to deliver more services offerings that help small businesses get and keep customers, Deluxe is better positioned as that indispensable partner for growth. Our focus for the remainder of 2013 is on accelerating our brand transformation and significantly improving overall market awareness while institutionalizing our brand promise for our customers; profitably integrating and extending our marketing solutions and other services portfolio, including our VerticalResponse acquisition; effectively acquiring and retaining customers across multiple channels; building a more effective retail services sales model; scaling major accounts and strategic channel partner relationships; and improving our customer experience. Here's an update on our e-checks partnership that we announced with VerifyValid on our last earnings call. As a reminder, VerifyValid is a leading provider of electronic payment solutions that transforms how businesses and banks use and accept checks. Small business customers can securely make and receive check payments online, utilizing a virtual lockbox and virtual remote deposit capture systems. We saw a very favorable response from presenting with VerifyValid at the September fall Synovate conference, and we'll be launching this product in early November to a portion of our Small Business customer base. In our initial pilot, we saw customers purchasing normal quantities of printed checks and then encouragingly, incremental e-checks. In Financial Services, the year-to-date secular check decline rate is just under 6%, with the decline rate about 6% in the third quarter versus our outlook of 5% to 6%, with rates consistent across both the national and community segments. We had strong overall new acquisition rates, and our retention rates remain strong on deals pending in the current quarter, well in excess of 90%. The HSBC migration has gone very well, and we are working several more competitive opportunities. We simplified our processes and took complexity out of the business while reducing our cost and expense structure. We are planning for checks to remain within a decline range of around 5% to 6% for the balance of the year. We also expect retention rates an excess of 90% on deals pending this year. And with approximately 90% of our 2013 community bank contract renewals already completed by the end of the third quarter, we are well ahead of the linear pace for the year. We made progress again in the quarter in advancing marketing solutions and other services revenue opportunities. Revenue grew over last year in these non-check services, which includes customer acquisition, risk management and other profitability offers. In customer acquisition and specifically our Cornerstone direct marketing analytics offer, we saw continued strong growth in new financial institutions. As the economy is starting to improve, mid-market financial institutions are beginning to invest again in customer acquisition. To further support this strategic opportunity, we completed a small tuck-in acquisition of ACTON Marketing in the third quarter. ACTON is similar to Cornerstone in that they are one of the pioneers in providing direct marketing campaign-targeting and execution services to financial institutions. This acquisition will help grow marketing solutions and other services revenue for Financial Services by combining the Cornerstone and ACTON businesses and bringing the best of their collective programs to their customer bases. It is a natural fit as ACTON and Cornerstone provide very similar and complementary services for the customers they serve, plus ACTON brings us a data and analytics platform. We have already synergistically begun the migration of Cornerstone into ACTON's offices. For SwitchAgent, our all-branch rollout with a large financial institution continues to perform well. And financial institutions that use SwitchAgent continue to realize a more profitable new account base, due in part to the roles of SwitchAgent in activating key payment services. We are closely collaborating with our financial institutions to identify and execute product enhancements that further our vision for the most simple and efficient account switching and anchoring experience for financial institution customers. Banker's Dashboard also continued to perform well in the third quarter. As you can see, momentum continues to build, and we expect strong double-digit growth in these marketing solutions and other services in 2013. In Direct Checks, revenue was right in line with our expectations. We continue to look for opportunities to provide accessories and other check-related products and services to our consumers. Although we have made significant progress with the Custom Direct integration, we are still working on a number of initiatives to create an integrated, best-in-class, direct-to-consumer check experience. As an example, we now have one integrated process for producing all direct-to-consumer checks. We continue to see a ramp in revenue enhancement synergies through our call center scripting and upsell capabilities, as well as synergistic cost and expense reductions. For 2013, we expect Direct Checks' revenue to decline right around 10%, driven by continued declines in consumer usage in a sluggish economy. We expect to reduce our manufacturing cost and SG&A in this segment and hold our operating margins in the 30% range while generating strong operating cash flows. As we exit the third quarter on the heels of another outstanding quarterly performance in a continued challenging economy, we made good progress again in transforming Deluxe, but we still have a lot of work and opportunities ahead of us. We are continuing to prudently plan that the economic climate will not improve in the fourth quarter. Our primary focus continues to be on revenue growth, especially in marketing solutions and other services and on brand positioning. We expect to continue the trend of revenue growth in the fourth quarter with strong high-single digit growth. At the same time, we will not take our eyes off the cost reductions and process improvements, and we expect to continue to generate strong cash flows and provide a very attractive dividend. We have developed a strong platform for long-term growth with the objective of transforming Deluxe to more of a growth services provider from primarily a check printer, thereby changing our product mix and resulting stock price multiple. Looking ahead to 2014, our portfolio is better positioned to deliver continued sustainable revenue growth. We are planning for what we expect to be a fifth consecutive year of revenue growth. Given the continuing sluggish economic climate, we believe it is prudent right now to expect the increase in 2014 revenue to be approximately 2% to 4% compared to 2013, which is expected to produce adjusted diluted earnings per share growth ranging from approximately 3% to 6%, with the assumption that we will continue to spend on brand awareness and also have a slightly higher tax rate in 2014 compared to 2013. To give some more color on our revenue thinking, we are planning on consumer checks through our financial institutions to decline 5% to 6% on a secular basis. On top of this, we have extended all large financial institution contracts through at least 2014, with the exception of one that we are working to extend. And we have about the same community bank contract dollars up for renewal on 2014 compared to 2013. And as mentioned earlier, we have more competitive opportunities coming due through to 2014. In business products, we expect to expand existing organic initiatives in Shop Deluxe, our Canadian business, and add Safeguard distributors, dealers and major accounts. In marketing solutions and other services, we expect organic revenue growth roughly in the low to mid-teens. To give some more color on our thinking, if we annualize 2013 expected revenue, adjusting for a full year of VerticalResponse and organically grow roughly in the low to mid-teens, this would imply a targeted marketing and other services revenue to total revenue mix of approximately 25% for the year. We expect to exit the fourth quarter of 2013 closer to this 25% mix given the seasonal business. We are excited with our progress here. And with a more cooperative economy and continued possible additional tuck-in acquisitions as catalyst, we could potentially grow marketing services -- marketing solutions and other services even faster. We also expect our costs and expense reduction initiatives to continue in 2014. From a housekeeping standpoint, each quarter in 2014 has the same number of business days as in 2013. It is also extremely important for us to see how the fourth quarter progresses and to closely monitor the marketplace and the economy over the next 3 months before providing more specific outlook details for 2014. And now, Dave, we're going to open the line up for questions.