Lee J. Schram
Analyst · CJS Securities
Thank you, Terry. I will continue my comments with an update on our overall focus and then highlight progress in each of our 3 segments. I will also include throughout a perspective on what we hope to accomplish during the balance of 2013. Our primary focus in 2013 continues to be profitable revenue growth and increasing the mix of marketing solutions and other services revenues. We have created more differentiated, technology-led check offers through investments in automated flat packaging, digital printing and online portals and dashboards. We also have significant growth opportunities in marketing solutions and other services. We will continue to assess potential small- to medium-sized acquisitions that complement our large customer bases, with a focus on marketing solutions and other services. We have strengthened our channels in small business to include financial institutions, online, retail, wholesale, distributors, dealers and major accounts. Deluxe is now more capable of helping small businesses pursue their passion as a trusted provider of a growing suite of products and services of small business needs to market and operate their business, and helping small to mid-sized financial institutions with customer acquisition, risk management and other value-add services offers. Here is an update on our 4 subcategories framework for marketing solutions and other services. We ended the first quarter right in line with our expectations in revenue, with mix in the 4 subcategories, basically in line with our expectations. First, small business marketing is expected to represent approximately 42% of revenue in 2013, with expected growth in the upper-teens this year. We saw strong double-digit growth in the first quarter in the web-to-print space as we cross-sold to our customer base and added new customers through distributors, dealers and major accounts. The second category, web services, which includes logo and web design, web hosting, SEM, SEO, email marketing, social and payroll services, is expected to represent approximately 32% of revenue in 2013, with expected organic growth rates in the mid-teens. We saw a little slower rollout in both wholesale web telco and SEM, SEO major accounts in the first quarter than expected from the $15 million of deals closed in 2012, which we expect will roll out throughout 2013. We saw growth from the prior year in cross-selling bundled presence packages to our retail base and added more new customers, resellers and partners. We continue to reduce web design and SEM campaign cycle times, and churn rates remain low. We added payroll services customers, and many customers added new features such as time and attendance applications. This category also is our focus area for tuck-in acquisitions. We closed the first quarter with approximately 565,000 web hosting customers, and we expect to close 2013 with nearly 750,000 web hosting customers, or up 36% from 2012, as we expect migrations to ramp through the balance of the year. The third category, fraud, security and risk management services, are expected to represent approximately 22% of revenue in 2013, with expected growth rates in the high-single digits. We had a stronger-than-expected first quarter as we added program services for new community banks and fraud and security offers for small businesses and direct to our consumers. We added Banker's Dashboard customers as well. Finally, other financial institution services are expected to represent approximately 4% of revenue in 2013, with expected growth rates in the high-single digits. Key growth initiatives here include adding new Cornerstone and SwitchAgent clients. We continue to expect marketing solutions and other services revenues to be approximately $330 million to $340 million in 2013, up from $285 million in 2012, with organic growth in the mid-teens. If achieved, this performance would translate to a total revenue mix of around 22% of revenue, including a year-end exit run rate above 25% of revenue towards our 25% mix goal and up from 19% in 2012 and 16% and 13% the previous 2 years. Our new brand awareness campaign was in market throughout the first quarter. We continue to run the 3 television commercials we started in late 2012 during the first 5 weeks of 2013, then paused for about 6 weeks as planned, and then ran them again for 4 weeks through mid-April. We also continued print and digital online ads during these same timeframes. This media will continue at various times through the balance of 2013 and focused first. For competitive reasons, we will not disclose investment levels other than to indicate that it is a multimillion-dollar campaign, and all planned spending is included in our current outlook ranges. We have established return-on-investment criteria based on the number of impressions, expected site visits and online leads. We will use results against these metrics to guide us as we progress on this new brand journey. It is important to remember that this campaign is primarily focused on improving brand awareness and not a targeted direct response campaign. Here are some metrics we are seeing so far in the campaigns. Online click-through rates are over 50% above representative benchmarks. Traffic to deluxe.com is up over 20%. YouTube views of the 3 commercials are now approximately 900,000, and we are closing new business both online and in our dedicated call centers. The calls we are receiving are some of our most relevant and best converting lead sources. Now shifting to our segments. In Small Business Services in the quarter, as expected, we did not see any notable improvements as the economic climate for small businesses remain sluggish. We had strong performance as revenue grew 8%, even with 2 less business days in the quarter. Checks and forms performed above our expectations. Our results from targeted customer segmentation in the call center improved. New customers from our financial institution, Deluxe Business Advantage referral program, and through our direct response campaigns, remain strong. Response rates, average order value and conversion rates improved. Our online Safeguard distributor and dealer channels grew revenue over the prior year. We also saw strong growth in web, SEM and payroll services. Again, we ended the quarter with approximately 565,000 web hosting customers. We continue to closely monitor the small business market. Optimism indices increased slightly in January, ramped in February, but plunged in March and remained in recessionary territory with no indication of a surge in business confidence. Current levels are among the lowest levels in nearly 40 years. 77% of business owners expect business conditions over the next 6 months to be the same as they are now or worse. More owners are planning to reduce employment than hire in the coming months, and more plan to reduce inventories than plan to order new stocks. They continue to spend cautiously, more in maintenance mode, scrutinize purchases and experience tight cash flow. In summary, current optimism indices have been trending downward over the past year and remain in recessionary levels. The good news is that other than taxes and regulation, increasing sales continues to be a small business owner's #1 pain point, and our portfolio is significantly more robust now, with many offers to help them here. As the economy recovers with the transformative changes we are making to deliver more services offerings that help small businesses get and keep customers, Deluxe is better positioned as that indispensable partner for growth. Our focus for 2013 is on: accelerating our brand transformation and significantly improving overall market awareness while institutionalizing our brand promise for our customers, profitably integrating and extending our marketing solutions and other services portfolio, effectively acquiring and retaining customers across multiple channels, building a more effective retail services sales model, scaling major accounts and strategic channel partner relationships and improving our customer experience. In Financial Services, in the first quarter, we saw a secular check decline rate of about 4%, which was better than our outlook of 5% to 6%, driven by strength in both the national and community segments. We had strong overall new acquisition rates, and our retention rates remained strong on deals pending in the current quarter, well in excess of 90%. We are pleased to report that we were informed that we won a new national competitive RFP that we expect to migrate to Deluxe in the third quarter this year. This new business is expected to help offset the expected negative impact from foreign exchange in Small Business Services. We are also beginning to work several more competitive opportunities. We simplified our processes and took complexity out of the business while reducing our cost and expense structure. Even though the first quarter secular decline rate was about 4%, we are prudently planning for check units to remain within a declined range of around 5% to 6% in 2013 for the balance of the year. We also expect retention rates in excess of 90% on deals pending this year. And with approximately 40% of our 2013 community bank contract renewals already completed by the end of the first quarter, we are well ahead of the linear pace for the year. As a reminder, we also implemented a price increase at the start of the year. We made progress again in the quarter in advancing marketing solutions and other services revenue opportunities. Revenue grew over last year in these non-check services, which include customer acquisition, risk management and other profitability offers. In customer acquisition, and specifically our Cornerstone direct marketing analytics offer, we saw continued growth in new financial institutions. We started an all-branch rollout with a large financial institution for our SwitchAgent offering and will begin in the second quarter several additional nice-sized branch rollouts with other large financial institutions. We continue to believe it will be an important tool for banks beyond acquisition to anchoring profitable clients. Financial institutions that use SwitchAgent are realizing a more profitable new account base due in part to the role of SwitchAgent in activating key payment services. Banker's Dashboard also continued to perform well in the first quarter. As you can see, although not as fast as we had hoped in some areas, momentum continues to build, and we expect strong double-digit growth in these marketing solutions and other services in 2013. In Direct Checks, revenue was basically in line with our expectations, driven by strong revenue per order and strong Custom Direct accessories revenue. We continue to look for opportunities to provide accessories and other check-related products and services to our consumers. Although we have made significant progress with the Custom Direct integration, we are still working a number of initiatives to create an integrated, best-in-class direct-to-consumer check experience. We continue to see a ramp in revenue enhancement synergies through our call center scripting and upsell capabilities, as well as synergistic costs and expense reduction. For 2013, we expect Direct Checks' revenue to decline in the mid- to high-single digits, driven by continued declines in consumer usage in a sluggish economy. We expect to reduce our manufacturing cost and SG&A in this segment and hold our operating margins in the 30% range while generating strong operating cash flow. As we exit the first quarter on the heels of a strong quarterly performance in a continued sluggish economy, we have made tremendous progress in transforming Deluxe. But we still have many opportunities ahead of us in 2013. Our strong first quarter positions us well to grow revenue in 2013 for the fourth consecutive year. We are conservatively not expecting the economic climate to improve throughout the balance of the year until we get better clarity as the year unfolds more. If the economy improves, we should have upside in revenue. At the same time, we will not take our eyes off the cost reductions and process improvements, and we expect to generate strong cash flows and provide a very attractive dividend. We have developed a strong platform for long-term growth with the objective of transforming Deluxe to more of a growth services provider from primarily a check printer, thereby changing our product mix and resulting stock price multiple. And now, Allison, we'll let you open the lines up, and Terry, Jeff and I will take questions.