Tony Lauritzen
Analyst · the line of Ben Nolan. And your line is now open sir
Thank you, Michael. Let’s move on to Slide 8 to summarize the Partnership’s profile. Our fleet currently accounts 6 high specification and versatile LNG carriers with an average age of about 7.3 years in an industry where expected useful economic lifetime is 35 years. We have a diversified customer base with substantial energy companies namely Gazprom, Statoil, Petrochina and Yamal LNG, which the latter is a joint venture between Total, CNPC, Novatek, and the Silk Road Fund. Our contract backlog is about $1.46 billion and our average remaining charter period is about 10.1 years which compares well versus our peers. Our vessels have also served customers such as Shell, Qatargas, RasGas, Marubeni, Woodside, CPC, North West Shelf and several other major oil and gas companies. We therefore have a large customer base that we are able to contract with. Moving on to Slide 9, our fleet of LNG carriers are largely fixed on long-term charters with strong and reputable energy companies. Drivers for these charters were the characteristics of the fleet including its ice class notations and our organization’s track record. The contractual relationship between our customers and the vessels are on a time charter party basis. Under a time charter party, the charterer pays a fixed day rate to the owner regardless if the vessel is being used or not and all major variable costs such as fuel cost are for the charterer’s account. There are also no early termination rights for convenience for the charterer. Therefore and coupled with our multiyear employment profile, the Partnership enjoys visible and stable contract revenues that are not directly affected by oil or gas prices. We have minimum capital requirements, which provides significant free cash flows. Compared to other shipping segments, LNG shipping is the highly industrial segment where owners and charterers work very close together and mutual performance is key. Charterers typically program the vessels for its trade for long periods of time. We are actively pursuing opportunities for only part of the availability that we have in 2018 given that we believe the market is on an improving trend. Let’s move to Slide 10. Our sponsor Dynagas Holding represents a fleet of 9 LNG carriers which are all on long-term contracts. Four of those LNG carriers are fully owned and trading. One of those carriers to Clean Ocean is chartered to Cheniere until 2020 and will thereafter deliver to Yamal LNG for a 15-year charter. The three sister vessels, Clean Planet, Clean Horizon and Clean Vision are currently employed in the cool pool, a pool equally owned by Dynagas, GasLog and Golar which is the world’s largest provider of short-term tonnage. From 2019, these three vessels will also deliver to Yamal LNG for minimum 15 years employment each. The five Arc-7 LNG carriers are 49% owned by our sponsor and 25.5% each by Sinotrans and China LNG Shipping, two state-owned Chinese entities. These vessels are chartered to Yamal LNG for between 26 and 28-year contracts each. The first of the – of the first 2 of the five Arc-7 LNG carriers have completed construction and announce that for delivery in the very near term. We expect Yamal LNG to start exporting within this year. All the vessels on the water and in the order book are fully financed and funded. All 9 vessels have contracts in place amounting to above $8 billion contract backlog. Let’s move to Slide 11. We have a unique fleet, 5 out of the 6 vessels in our fleet have ice class 1A notation. The fleet can handle conventional LNG shipping as well as operate in ice bound and subzero areas. This means that we are able to and have been successful in pursuing business opportunities in two different markets, namely conventional shipping and a unique market for icebound trade. The initial capital expenditure for an ice class vessel is somewhat more expensive than conventional carriers. However, the operating costs between our ice class type carriers and conventional carriers are very similar. The company together with our sponsor has a market share of 75% for vessels with Arc-4 or equivalent ice class notation. There are only 3 other LNG carriers in the world with equivalent notation which to our knowledge are chartered out long-term. We view the ability to trade in icebound areas an important advantage due to the current and ongoing construction of LNG producing terminals within icebound areas. Our fleet is regularly trading in icebound areas which gives a tremendous advantage given the large gas reserves located in the middle of this Northern sea route that are being developed for first export by the end of this year. We also expect further projects to be developed in that region. Further to that, our fleet is optimized for terminal compatibility which is of significant importance in a market that is changing from a fixed route trade to worldwide trade. The fleet consists of groups of sister vessels that provides for overall relative better economics and efficiency. Let’s move to Slide 13. In summary, the market is in place where substantial ongoing growth of LNG production coming from new LNG projects primarily in the U.S., Australia, and Russia. The world LNG carrier fleet appears too small to carry those additional volumes in the long-term and there are too many small and old technology vessels. Also there has been a slowdown in the ordering of LNG carriers with marginal ordering activity since Q3 2015. There appears to be sufficient demand for the new LNG from existing and new importers and floating regasification projects creates accelerated demand for available LNG. The LNG shipping market is maturing with increased fixture activity on the back of an improving spot market increasing energy production and larger energy carrier fleet. The current LNG world fleet and the order book including FSRUs and FSUs totals about 579 vessels. The order book counting 105 vessels is about 22% of the world fleet. As much as 30% of the world fleet is below 140,000 cubic meters and aged. These vessels are small with an average size of about 135,000 cubic meters this is well below the average cargo size. We expect that most of these undersized and aged vessels will fade out of the market and be replaced with larger and younger tonnage. As seen on the graph on the upper right side, almost all vessels built prior to 2006 are small turbine driven vessels. About 49% of the world fleet is steam driven. Furthermore, 84% of the order book has already been committed for employment. This means that there are very few new buildings that may be available to replace on average undersized an aged tonnage and to carry expected incremental LNG production. According to the order book most new builds will be delivered during 2018, which is also a period we expect significant additional LNG production. We have seen a slowdown in the ordering activity of LNG carriers there are only very few yards in the world that has the experience and capability to build such vessels. And if we were to order today, our guess is that yards would be able to offer tonnage for delivery in the first or second quarter of 2020 at the very earliest. Moving on to Slide 14. We are now in a period with strong growth in LNG production. It is conservatively forecasted that LNG production will increase by more than 50% within 2022. It also assumed that project output on existing terminals may increase going forward adding additional supply. We assume that the majority of the new LNG is coming from terminals already under construction meaning a high probability of project materialization. We expect to see imminent production increases from Russia, Australia, and U.S. It is likely that the Far East will remain the largest buyers going forward, in particular with growing imports to China. We believe we will continue to see the emergence of new niche markets in areas such as South Asia, Africa, Middle East and South America with large volumes will be imported by FSRUs. We also believe that there are sufficient buyers for the new LNG to be absorbed the majority of the new LNG export volumes have sale agreements or off-take agreements in place. We believe that existing import markets will continue to increasingly rely on LNG as a price competitive and clean energy resource. Let’s move to Slide 15. The industry is keeping on track with projected growth in LNG. In three first quarters of 2017, LNG production was up 12% from the comparable period in 2016. As expected in particular, Australia and the U.S. have been the largest incremental producers so far. The trend is expected to continue going forward with existing trains such as PFLNG, Wheatstone Train 1, and Sabine Pass ramping up capacity and new projects such as Yamal LNG, Cameron, Cove Point, Elba, Wheatstone Train 2, Ichthys and Prelude being added. In March 2017, the industry saw the world’s first cargo being produced by a floating LNG terminal namely the PFLNG Satu which gives confidence to floating LNG production technology and we expect Golar’s FLNG Hilli to follow soon. Let’s move to Slide 16. With the U.S. projected to become one of the world’s largest exporters of LNG, it is important to monitor where those volumes have been shipped so far. Sabine Pass produced 189 cargoes between February 2016 and 13 October 2017. 17% of the volumes went to South America, 25% to Central America including Caribs, 15% to Europe including Turkey, 24% to the Far East, 14% to the Middle East and 5% to India and Pakistan. Initial analysis indicates that Sabine Pass requires about 1.7 vessels for every million ton LNG produced. At full production, we expect Sabine Pass to produce 27 million tons per annum over 6 trains. This means that one would require about 46 vessels fully utilized per annum to serve this terminal alone. If we conservatively estimate that the U.S. exports will produce 69 million tons of LNG per annum within 2021 U.S. volumes may require about 117 vessels alone. That is about 25% of the current world fleet. Let’s move to Slide 17. Gas, coal and oil are by far the largest sources of energy and represents about 87% of the world’s energy mix. In comparison, renewables represents 3% of the energy mix. Due to its environmentally-friendly properties, gas is expected to outperform growth in both coal and oil by far. Gas is in particular in demand for power generation, industrial use, heating and cooking and over time in the transportation segment. LNG is the fastest growing sub-segment of the gas industry, because it provides flexibility as opposed to a rigid pipeline network. Since 1990, the number of countries importing LNG has grown from 9 to 36 and the number of exporters has grown from 8 to 19. From the year 2000 until 2017, infrastructure worth $990 billion has been constructed. When we compare Slide 17, which illustrates the 9 LNG shipping trading routes that were present in 1990 with Slide 18 that illustrates LNG shipping routes in the year 2016, that accounted 255 country-to-country routes and above 600 routes when broken into ports, it is obvious that the LNG trading patterns have grown dramatically in volume and patterns. We believe this trend will continue going for forward due to increased LNG production more and more LNG infrastructure and the larger LNG carrier fleet. Let’s move to Slide 19. As we have 3 vessels with limited availability in 2018, we want to see how the short-term market is developing. In the year 2000, spot and short-term LNG sales versus all LNG sold amounted to 2%. This means that the vast majority of all LNG was typically traded from one location to another on long-term gas sales agreement, which LNG was shipped by long-term time charters. In 2015, after years of substantial international investments in LNG infrastructure, developing new LNG producing and importing terminals and increasing the LNG carrier fleet, spot and short-term LNG versus all LNG sold amounted to about 37%. This does not translate into that 37% of all LNG sold is carried on spot chartered vessels. However, the spots and short-term market has developed substantially and is today much more liquid than the medium-term and long-term markets. We see a steady increase in fixture activity with spot and short-term fixtures increasing significantly from 2014 onwards. Driven by increased LNG supply and normalized oil price and arbitrage between the Atlantic and the Pacific Basin, the market for spot and short-term LNG shipping has strengthened substantially recently and therefore we expect the period market to become increasingly active going forward. Let’s move to Slide 20, we experienced new import markets emerging in particularly we are floating regasification terminals, which we term FSRU imports that allows for quick market access in 2016, 22 million tons equivalent to about 8% of worldwide production were expect – were expected – were exported to new markets. And the majority of those volumes were discharged into FSRU terminals. Although most incremental demand going forward will come from land-based terminals, the FSRU landscape is important because it develops very quickly and is accelerating LNG demand growth. The FSRU market has grown steadily over the past years in 2016 floating regas made up 15% of total regas capacity. This number is increased to 21% within 2021, which does not include the more than 40 proposed FSRU project in December 2016, Columbia the FSRU industry followed by Turkey in January 2017. This year FSRU projects are expected to come online in Ghana, Russia, Pakistan and Brazil. In summary, when we compare LNG supply to LNG shipping – LNG shipping capacity available from now on and forward, we remain confident that the market outlook for shipping looks favorable. The growth in LNG production set that above 50% within 2022 is estimated to outpace increase in LNG shipping capacity of 22% within the same. A large portion of the new LNG will be delivered already within 2019, meaning we should expect the period ramping up to that point and subsequent years to result in an improved and increasingly healthy shipping market. Additionally, the partnership’s fleet is largely ice classed and winterized enabling the flexibility to pursue the best of 2 different markets, which has proven to be a strong advantage so far in securing long-term charters. We have now reached the end of the presentation. And I now open the floor for questions.