Tony Lauritzen
Analyst · the line of Ben Nolan and your line is now open sir
Thank you, Michael. Let's move on to Slide 8 to summarize the Partnership's profile. Our fleet currently accounts six high specification and versatile LNG carriers with an average age of about 7.1 years in an industry where expected useful economic lifetime is 35 years. We have a diversified customer base with substantial energy companies, namely Gazprom, Statoil and Yamal LNG which the latter is the international joint venture between Total, CNPC, Novatek, and the Silk Road Fund. Our contract in backlog is about $1.49 billion and our average remaining charter period is about 10.2 years which compares well versus our peers. Our vessels have also served customers such as Qatargas, RasGas, Marubeni, Woodside, Kogas, CPC, North West Shelf and several other major oil and gas companies. We therefore have a large customer base that we are able to contract with. Moving on to Slide 9, our fleet of LNG carriers are largely fixed on long-term charters with strong and reputable energy companies and we have a very low availability going forward. Drivers for our charters were the characteristics of the fleet including its ice class notations and our organization's track record. The contractual relationship between our customers and the vessels on a time charter party basis, under a time charter party the charterer pays a fixed day rate to the owner regardless if the vessel is being used or not and all major variable costs such as fuel cost are for the charterer's account. There are also no early termination rights for convenience for the charterer. Therefore and coupled with our multiyear employment profile the Partnership enjoys visible and stable revenues that are not directly affected by oil or gas prices. We have minimal capital requirements which provides significant free cash flows. Compared to other shipping segments, LNG shipping is highly industrial segment where owners and charterers work very close together and mutual performance is key. Charterers typically program the vessel for its trade for long periods of time. In April 2 17 Clean Energy became available for employment at which time we entered into two consecutive short-term charters to employ the vessel through the end of August 2017 followed by another short term charter and we expect to enter into additional charters for the Clean Energy prior to her delivery to Gazprom in July 2018. We have only entered a limited number of discussions on the general availability that we having in 2018 given that we believe the market is on an improving trend. Let's move to Slide 10. Our sponsor Dynagas Holding owns a fleet of nine LNG carriers which are all on long-term contracts. Four of those LNG carriers are fully owned and trading, one of them the Clean Ocean is chartered to Cheniere until 2020 and will thereafter deliver to Yamal LNG for a 15-year charter. The three sister vessels, Clean Planet, Clean Horizon and Clean Vision are currently employed in the cool pool, a pool equally owned by Dynagas, GasLog and Golar which is also the world's largest provider of short-term tonnage. From 2019 these three vessels will deliver to Yamal LNG for minimum 15 years employment each. The five Arc-7 LNG carriers are 49% owned by our sponsor and 25.5% each by Sinotrans and China LNG Shipping, two state-owned Chinese entities. These vessels are under construction in Korea and are chartered to Yamal LNG for between 26 and 28-year contracts each. All vessels on the water and in the order book are fully financed and funded. All nine vessels have contracts in place amounting to about $1.1 billion contract backlog. These optional vessels are dropdown candidates to the Partnership. Let's move to Slide 11. We have a unique fleet, five out of the six vessels in our fleet have ice class 1A notation. It can handle conventional LNG shipping as well as operate in ice bound and subzero areas. This means that we are able to and have been successful in pursuing business opportunities in two different markets, namely conventional shipping and a unique market for icebound trade. The initial capital expenditure for an ice class vessel is somewhat more expensive than conventional carriers. However, the operating costs between our ice class type carriers and conventional carriers are very similar. The company together with our sponsor has a market share of 75% for vessels with Arc-4 or equivalent ice class notation. There are only three other LNG carriers in the world with equivalent notation which to our knowledge are unchartered out on long-term contracts. We view the ability to trade in icebound areas as an important advantage due to the current and ongoing construction of LNG producing terminals within icebound areas. Our fleet is regularly trading in icebound areas and we have long track record in transiting LNG carriers in Northern sea route which gives a tremendous advantage given that the large gas reserves located in the middle of this route that are being developed for export by the end of this year. We also expect further projects to be developed in that region. Further to that, our fleet is optimized for terminal compatibility which is of significant importance in a market that is changing from a fixed route trade to worldwide trade. The fleet consists of groups of sister vessels that provides for overall relative better economics and efficiency. Let's move to Slide 13. In summary the market is in place with substantial ongoing growth of LNG production coming from new energy projects primarily from the U.S. and Australia. The world LNG carrier fleet is too small to carry those additional volumes in the long-term and there are too many small and old technology vessels. Also there has been a slowdown in the ordering of LNG carriers with marginal ordering activities since Q3 2015. There appears to be sufficient demand for the new LNG from existing and new importers and floating regasification projects creates accelerated demand for available LNG. The current LNG world fleet and the order book including FSRUs and FSUs totals about 576 vessels. The order book counting 112 vessels is about 24% of the world fleet. As much as 30% of the world fleet is below 140,000 m³ and aged. More importantly these vessels are small with average size of about 135,000 m³ this is well below the average cargo size. We expect that most of these undersized and aged vessels will fade out of the market and be replaced with larger and younger tonnage. As seen on the graph on the upper right side, almost all vessels built prior to 2006 are small turbine vessels. Furthermore, 82% of the order book of 112 vessels has already been committed for employment. This means that there are very few new buildings that may be available to replace on average undersized an aged tonnage and to carry expected incremental LNG production. According to the order book most new builds will be delivered during the period 2017 and 2018 which is also a period we expect significant additional LNG production. We have seen a slowdown in ordering activity of LNG carriers and there are only a few yards in the world that has the experience and capability to build such vessels and if we were to order today our guess is that yards would be able to offer tonnage for delivery in the early 2020 at the very, very earliest. Let's move to Slide 14. We are now in a period with strong growth in LNG production. It is conservatively forecasted that about 143 million tons of new annual LNG will come to the market between now and 2021. This means a total increase of 54% compared to 2016 production. It is also assumed that project output on existing terminals may increase going forward adding additional supply. We assume that the majority of the new LNG is coming from terminals already under construction, meaning a high probability of project materialization. The source of this new LNG is primarily from Australia, North America, Southeast Asia and Russia. It is likely that the Far East will remind the largest buyers going forward; however, the largest incremental demand growth may be from new and from European and Asia Pacific markets and in particular China. We believe we will continue to see the emergence of new niche markets in areas such as South Asia, Middle East and South America with large volumes will be imported by FSRUs. We also believe that there are sufficient buyers for the new LNG to be absorbed, the majority of the new LNG export volumes have sale agreements or off take agreements in place. We believe that the existing import markets will continue to increasingly rely on LNG as a price competitive and clean energy resource. Let's move to Slide 15. In first half of 2017 LNG production was up 12% from the comparable period of 2016. As expected in particular Australia and the U.S. have been the largest incremental producers so far and are expected to add significant further volumes going forward. The trend is expected to continue in second half of 2017 with existing trains ramping up capacity and new projects such as Cameron LNG, Wheatstone LNG and Yamal LNG being added. In March 2017 the industry saw the world's first cargo being produced by a floating LNG terminal namely the PFLNG Satu which gives confidence to floating LNG production technology and Golar LNG produced 25 cargoes in the first half of 2017 compared to 12 for the full year of 2016. Sabine Pass LNG train 1 to 4 are substantially complete and we assume that train 5 is scheduled for completion end 2018 or early 2019. Let's move to Slide 16. With the U.S. projected to become one of the world's largest exporters of LNG it is important to analyze where those volumes are being shipped so far. Sabine Pass produced 159 cargoes between February 2016 and August 01, 2017. 20% of the volumes went to South America, 25% to Central America including Caribs, 14% to Europe including Turkey, 21% to the Far East, 14% to the Middle East and 6% to India and Pakistan. Initial analysis indicates that Sabine Pass requires 1.7 vessels for each million tons of LNG produced. At full production Sabine Pass is expected to produce 27 million tons per annum. This means that one would require about 46 vessels fully utilized per annum to serve this terminal alone. If we conservatively estimate that the U.S. export will produce 69 million tons of LNG per annum within 2021 U.S. volumes may require about 117 vessels alone. That is equivalent to about 25% of the current world fleet. Let's move to Slide 17. Gas, coal and oil are by far the largest sources of energy today. Due to its environmentally friendly properties gas is expected to outperform growth in both coal and oil. LNG is the fastest growing subsegment of the gas industry because it provides flexibility as opposed to a rigid pipeline network. Since 1990 the number of countries importing LNG has grown from 9 to 36 and the number of exporters has grown from 8 to 19. From the year 2000 until 2017, infrastructure worth $990 billion has been constructed. The Far East is still the largest consumer of LNG and demand is growing. The world’s largest incremental importers of LNG in second half 2017 were China, Japan and South Korea. Both Japan and Korea have long been relying on LNG as a resource. China completed its first LNG import terminal in 2008 and today have 13 completed LNG terminals and 10 under construction. Growth in Chinese LNG imports have averaged 17% per annum in the last five years. In 2016, China imported 26 million tons of LNG equivalent to about 10% of 2016 world LNG production, this number is forecasted to grow to 33 million tons by end 2017 an equivalent of 25% year-on-year growth. Let’s move to Slide 18. LNG is becoming an increasingly important energy resource due to its environmentally friendly properties, its completive pricing and availability. We experienced new import markets emerging in particular via floating regasification terminals which we term FSRU imports that allows for quick market access. In 2016, 22 million tons equivalent to about 8% of worldwide production were exported to new markets and the majority of those volumes were discharged into FSRU terminals. Although most incremental demand going forward will come from land based terminals, the FSRU landscape is interesting because it develops very quickly and is accelerating LNG demand growth. The FSRU market has grown steadily over the past years. In 2016 floating regas made up 50% of the total regas capacity. This number is expected to increase to 21% within 2021 which does not include more than 40 proposed FSRU projects. In December 2016, Colombia joined the FSRU industry followed by Turkey in January 2017 and this year FSRU projects are expected to come online in Ghana, Russia, Pakistan and Brazil. In summary, when we compare LNG supply to LNG shipping capacity available from now and forward, we remain confident that the market outlook for shipping looks favorable in the long term. In the period prior to that, we believe that the short term market in general may create competition to the long term market until sufficient LNG supply is outpacing LNG shipping capacity. The growth in LNG production set at 54% within 2021 is estimated to outpace increase in LNG shipping capacity of 24% within the same period. A large portion of the new LNG will be delivered already within 2019, meaning we should expect the period ramping up to that point and subsequent years to result in an improved and increasingly healthy shipping market. Additionally, the Partnership's fleet is largely ice class and winterized enabling the flexibility to pursue the best of two different markets which has proven to be a strong advantage so far. We have now reached the end of the presentation and I now open the floor for questions.