Tony Lauritzen
Analyst · Hillary and I hope I pronounce this correctly Cacanando from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead Hillary
Thank you, Michael. Let's move onto Slide 9 to summarize the Partnerships profile. Our fleet currently counts six high specification and versatile LNG carriers with an average age of about 6.8 years in an industry where expected useful economic lifetime is 35 years. We have a diversified customer base with substantial energy companies, namely Gazprom, Statoil and Yamal LNG; which the later has a joint venture between Total, CNPC, Novotech and the Silk Road Fund [ph]. Our contracted backlog amounts to about $1.52 billion, and our average remaining charter period is about 10.5 years, which compares very well to our peers. Our vessels have also served in the past to customers such as [indiscernible] and several other major oil and gas companies. We therefore have a large customer base that we're able to contract with. Moving on to slide 10; our fleet of energy carriers are largely fixed on long-term charters with strong and recruitable energy companies and we have a low availability going forward. Drivers for the employment were the characteristics of the vessels including its highest class notations and our organizations high quality track record. The contractual relationship between our customers and the vessels are on a time charter park, under a time charter parked the charter pays a fixed day rate to the owner regardless if the vessel is being used or not and all major variable cost such as fuel cost up from the charter is accounted. There are also no early termination rights for convenience for the charter, therefore and coupled with our multi-year employment profile; the partnership enjoys visible and stable revenues that are not directly affected by oil or gas prices. We also have minimal capital requirements which provides significant free cash flows. Compared to other shipping segments, LNG shipping is highly industrial segment where owners and charters work very closely together and mutual performance is key. Charters typically probably the vessel for its trade for long periods of time. In April 2017, the Clean Energy became available for employment at which time we entered into two consecutive short-term charters to employ the vessels through the end of August 2017. Following the exploration of these charters, we expect to enter into additional charters for the client energy, prior to her delivery to prompt in July 2018. The short-term market is tightening and we believe that market will be stronger by the time she again becomes available for a limited period of time. We then entered a limited number of discussions on the available that we in 2018 given that we believed the market is on an improving feed. Let's move to Slide 11; our sponsor Dynagas Holding owns the feet of 9 LNG carriers which are all on long-term contracts. Four of those LNG carriers are fully owned and trading; one of those carriers, namely the Clean Office is charted to [indiscernible] until 2022 and will thereafter deliver to Yamal LNG for a 15-year charter. The three sister vessels, clean planet, clean horizon and clean vision are currently employed in the cool tool and LNG pooled joint venture equally owned by Dynagas, Gaslock [ph] Angola which is also the world's largest provider of short-term tonnage. From 2019, these three vessels will deliver to young Marlin [ph] and Jay for mainly, for minimum employment each. The five large seven LNG carriers are 49% owner by our sponsor and 25.5% each by Sino Trends [ph] and China Energy Shipping, two state-owned Chinese entities. These vessels are under construction in Korea and a charter to Yamal LNG for between 26 and 28-year contract each. All vessels on the water and in the order book are fully financed and funded. All nine vessels have contract in place amounting to a total $8.1 billion as a backlog. These optional vessels are dropdown candidates to the Partnerships. Let's move to Slide 12, we have a unique fleet; five out of the six vessels in our fleet has Ice Class 1A notation. It can handle conventional LNG shipping as well as operate in ice bound and sub-zero areas. This means that we are able to and have been successful in pursuing business opportunities in two different markets, namely conventional shipping and a unique market for ice-bound trade. The initial capital expenditure for an ice-class vessel is somewhat more expensive than a conventional carrier; however, the operating costs between our ice-class type carriers and conventional carriers are very similar. The Company together with our sponsor has a market share of 82% for vessels with ARC IV or equivalent ice class notation. There are only two other LNG carriers in the world with equivalent notation which to our knowledge, unchartered out on a long-term contract. We view the ability to trade in ice-bound areas as an important advantage due to the current and ongoing construction of LNG producing terminals within ice-bound areas. Our fleet is regularly trading in ice-bound areas and we are the only company with actual track record in transiting LNG carriers through the Northern Sea route which gives the tremendous advantage; given their large gap located in the middle of this route that are being developed for export by the end of this year. We also expect further projects to be developed in that area. Sort of to that our fleet is optimized for terminal compatibility which is of significant importance in a market that is changing from a fixed route trade to worldwide trade; the fleet consist of groups of sister vessels that provides for overall relatively better economics and efficiencies. Let's move to Slide 14 for an industry update. In short, the market is in a place where there are substantial volumes of additional LNG expected to be produced in the near to medium-term. The world LNG carrier fleet is too small to carry those additional volumes in the long-term and there are too many small and old technology vessels. Also there has been a slowdown in the ordering of LNG carriers with marginal ordering activities since Q3 2015 and floating reclassification projects creates accelerated demand for available LNG. The current LNG world fleet and the order book including FSRU and FSRU totals about 574 vessels. The order book accounting 115 vessels is about 25% of the world fleet. As much as 32% of the world's fleet is on average 22 years old. More importantly, these vessels are small with an average cargo size of about 135,000 cubic meters; this is well below the average cargo size. We expect that most of these undersized and aged vessels will fade out of the market and be replaced with larger and younger tonnage. As seen on the graph on the upper right side, almost all vessels build prior to 2006 are small turbine driven vessels. Furthermore, 82% of the order book of 115 vessels has already been committed for employment; this means that there are very few new buildings that maybe available to replace on average undersized and aged tonnage and to carry expected incremental LNG production. According to the order, most new builds will be delivered during the period through '17 and through '18 which is also a period we expect significant additional LNG production. We have seen a slowdown in ordering of activity of LNG carriers, they are only very few yards in the world that has experienced a capability to build such vessels and if one were to order today, our guess is that yards would be able to offer tonnage for delivery in late 2019 at the very earliest. Let's move to Slide 15. We are now in a period with strong growth in LNG production. It is conservatively forecasted that about 146 million tons of new annual LNG will come to the market between now and 2021; this means the total increase of 55% compared to 2016 production. It is also assumed that project output on existing terminals may increase going forward adding additional supplier. We assume that the majority of the new LNG is coming from terminals already under construction meeting a high probability of project materialization. The source of this new LNG is primarily from Australia, North America, Southeast Asia and Russia. It is likely that the Far East will remain the largest buyers going forward; however, the largest incremental demand growth may come from new and from European and Asia Pacific markets. We believe we will continue to see the emergence of new and niche markets in areas such as South Asia, Middle East and South America where large volumes will be imported by FSRU. We also believe that there are sufficient buyers for the new LNG to be absorbed. The majority of the new LNG export volumes have sales agreements or off-take agreements in place. We believe that existing import markets will continue to increasingly rely on LNG as a price competitive and clean energy resource. Let's move to Slide 16. In the first quarter of 2017, LNG production was up 13% from the comparable period of 2016. As expected in particular Australia and the U.S. have been the largest incremental producer so far and are expected to add significant further volumes going forward. The trend is expected to continue in the second half of 2017 with existing trends ramping up capacity and new projects being added. In March 2017, the industry saw the world's first cargo being produced by a floating LNG terminal, namely the PS LNG Sato [ph] which gives confidence to floating LNG production technology. Angola LNG produced 13 cargos in Q1 2017 compared to 12 cargos for the full year of 2016. Sabine Pass LNG train 3 produced its first cargo in early 2017 and is now ready for commercial operations. Let's move to Slide 17. With the U.S. projected to become one of the world's largest exporters of LNG, it is worthwhile to analyze where those volumes have been shipped so far. Sabine Pass produced 96 cargos between February 2016 and March 2017, 22% of the volumes went to South America, 21% to Central America including the Carribs, 17% to Europe including Turkey, 20% to the Far East, 14% to the Middle East and 7% to India. Initial analysis indicates that Sabine Pass requires 1.77 vessels for every million ton LNG produced. At full production, Sabine Pass is expected to produce 27 million tons per annum over six trains; this means that one would require about 48 vessels fully utilized per annum to serve this terminal alone. If we conservatively estimate that the U.S. exports will produce about 69 million tons of LNG per annum within 2021, the U.S. volumes may require about 122 vessels alone which is equivalent to about 27% of the current world fleet. Let's move to Slide 18. Gas, coal and oil are by far the largest sources of energy today. Due to its environmentally friendly properties, gas is expected to outperform growth in both coal and oil. LNG is the fastest growing sub-segment of the gas industry because it provides flexibility as opposed to a rigid pipeline network. Since 1990, the number of countries importing LNG has grown from 9 to 36 and the number of exporters has grown from 8 to 19. Also from the year 2000 until 2017, infrastructure costing close to $1 trillion has been constructed. The changes in the industry is evident in the way that LNG has traded. In the year 2000, there were only 43 country to country trading routes. By 2016, this number had increased to 255 and when we analyzed to trade on a port to port basis, the number increases to 616. Now this is exactly why our fleet has been designed for optimal terminal compatibility and versatility. Let's move to Slide 19. LNG is becoming an increasingly important energy resource due to its environmentally friendly properties, it's competitive pricing and availability. We experience new import markets emerging in particular via floating regasification terminals which we term FSRU imports that allows for quick market access. In 2016, 22 million tons equivalent to 8% of the worldwide production were exported to new markets and the majority of those volumes were discharged into FSRU terminals. Although most incremental demand going forward will come from LAN based terminals, the FSRU landscape is interesting because it develops very quickly and is accelerating LNG demand growth. The FSRU market has grown steadily over the past years. In 2016 floating regas made up 15% of the total regas capacity; this number is expected to increase to 21% within 2021 which does not include more than 40 proposed FSRU projects. In December 2016, Columbia joined the FSRU industry followed by Turkey in January 2017. This year FSRU projects are expected to come online in Ghana, Russia, Pakistan and Brazil. In summary, when we compare LNG supply to LNG shipping capacity available from now and forward, we remain confident that the market outlook for shipping looks favorable in the long-term. In the period prior to that, we believe that the short-term market in general may create competition to the long-term market until sufficient LNG supply is outpacing LNG shipping capacity. The growth in LNG productions at 55% within 2021 is estimated to outpace increase in LNG shipping capacity set at 25% within the same period. A large portion of the new LNG will be delivered already within 2019 meaning we should expect a period ramping up to that and subsequent years to result in an improved and increasingly healthy shipping market. Additionally the Partnership's fleet is largely ice classes and winterized enabling the flexibility to pursue the best of two different markets which have proven to be a strong advantage so far. We have now reached the end of the presentation and I now open the floor for questions. Thank you.