Alan J. Hirshberg - ConocoPhillips
Management
Since our original guidance during the 4Q call back in January for the year, we've increased 25,000 barrels a day on midpoint, so our midpoint's moved from 1,215,000 to 1,240,000 barrels per day. And there's just a few big pieces that kind of drive that. You know about the negative 20,000 that we have at KBB from the third party pipeline outage. That negative 20,000 is in – there's a lot of 2s and 3s and 4s but leaving those aside, the big numbers is roughly offset by plus 10,000 in Europe that you've heard me talk about before where we're having a good year in Europe on our base production there and our uptime. And about plus 10,000 from acquisition A&D kind of activity. That offsets that 20,000. So then that takes you back to zero. The plus 25,000 is all coming from the Big 3 really from the Big 2. It's plus 15,000 in Eagle Ford and plus 10,000 in the Bakken. And so you can do the math and see that we get a lot of cash flow from that extra 25,000 from those very high margin barrels. So where does that 25,000 come from? It's roughly a third, a third, a third matching up with some of the same reasons that drive our CapEx. A third of that extra 25,000 is coming from partner-operated, primarily in the Bakken. Actually the number is – we're getting about an extra 7,000, we think in 2018 from the higher OBO spend. And that number is held down by partial year effects. You're spending the money during calendar 2018 so you get 7,000, but we would expect to get about twice that amount of increased volume in 2019 from this extra $200 million OBO spend, so it's very effective money. It varies but generally speaking, these ballots, these partner ballots are typically 30% IRR at $50 WTI or better and so it's that kind of investment.