Donald E. Wallette, Jr. - ConocoPhillips
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
Yeah, Paul, we think the Gulf Coast is going to require expansion. There are plans in place in both Corpus Ingleside and Houston to expand the export capability. And we think those plans are proceeding along at a good pace. Just to give you some numbers on ConocoPhillips, we've sold probably something around 10 million barrels over the docks this year. So, that's going to vary a lot from month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter depending on whether the arbs (25:13) open or not. But on average for the year that would be about 35,000 barrels a day or in other terms, it represents about 30% of our Eagle Ford sales. Currently, we're not – we don't have transportation to the Gulf from Permian, so that's all Eagle Ford. And those exports have helped our realizations. That's one of the reasons why our realizations are so strong. In the third quarter, our waterborne barrels average WTI plus about $3 netback to the Eagle Ford lease. So, really good performance there. But just generally from an industry, you're asking about more the industry capability and the wave of Permian production coming into the Gulf. Right now, we think the Corpus Ingleside area has about 800,000 barrels a day of export capacity. And recently in August, they exported about 400,000 barrels a day. So, right now, 50% of their capability. If you move up to Houston, we estimate about 1.6 million barrels a day of export capacity at the Port of Houston. And August exports were 400,000 barrels a day, so a lot of surplus capacity in Houston. Now, Corpus has active plans to dredging and adding buoys and things like that that are going to grow export capacity over 2 million barrels a day by 2022, late 2021. So, I think a lot of this is going to depend on obviously the pace of Permian production. Just looking at the pipeline schedules, the new pipes being built out of the Permian to the Gulf Coast, it looks like those planned toward Corpus are probably going to go in first. And so we'll probably see a little bit of bottleneck at Corpus initially. But then once the pipes go in from the Permian to the Port of Houston, the ship channel come on then that should alleviate the bottleneck. So, as we look at it and back up, we think, yeah, there's probably going to be some tightness, particularly at Corpus, probably in late 2019 when these pipes start-up. But that probably – we're probably talking about bottlenecks in months, in terms of months rather than years. So we don't think this is going to be a significant problem. Now I mentioned our export capacity. I will confirm that we are and have been actively discussing expanding our capability in that regard. We think that's going to be important over the next few years.