Joseph Harvey
Analyst · Evercore ISI
Thank you, Matt, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will review our investment performance and provide some perspective on how our largest asset classes are positioned for 2021. The markets were ebullient in the fourth quarter as investors continued to look beyond the valley of the pandemic, encouraged by progress with the vaccine and anticipating a potential economic recovery, relieved by clarity on our new administration and government and supported by record monetary and fiscal stimulus. The macro environment in 2020 was unprecedented with the Fed's balance sheet increasing by over 75%, the budget deficit reaching the highest level since World War II, money supply growing 25% and negative yielding debt reaching $18 trillion globally. Although we had some of the best relative performance ever in 2020, our asset classes, except for preferreds, lagged their market counterparts meaningfully. Summarizing our performance at a high level, preferreds performed competitively within fixed income. U.S. and Global REITs and infrastructure significantly trailed the technology-led performance in stocks. And certain of our strategies with energy allocations underperformed due to concerns about the secular decline in the demand for oil, considering the growing focus on renewables. Looking at our performance scorecard, in the fourth quarter, 5 of 9 core strategies outperformed their benchmarks. For the last 12 months, 6 of 9 core strategies outperformed. As measured by AUM, 84% of our portfolios are outperforming on a 1-year basis, an improvement from 70% last quarter, mostly due to our preferred portfolios. On a 1- and 3-year basis, 99% are outperforming, which was consistent with last quarter. 90% of our open-end fund AUM is rated 4- or 5-star by Morningstar, compared with 92% last quarter. Preferreds returned 4.6% in the fourth quarter. We outperformed in both our core and low-duration preferred strategies. After a brief stretch of underperformance, we've now outperformed for 3 consecutive quarters. Our 12-month figures are beginning to turn positive across our accounts, which led to the improvement in our 12-month outperforming AUM. While our relative performance was mixed in 2020, we outperformed all peers. Taking stock of the critical factors for preferreds, unprecedented monetary stimulus has helped to compress credit spreads to near record low levels. Credit quality should benefit as the recovery progresses. With 2020 elections over, the expectation for more fiscal stimulus, and potentially, with the bottoming of inflation, treasury yields may be transitioning from declining to rising. As a result, companies are taking their cue from markets and issuing significant amounts of preferreds at a very low cost of capital. Taken together, these factors lead us to expect lower returns from preferreds, and we are currently suggesting that investors consider our low-duration strategy. In 2020, real estate and infrastructure performance materially lagged the broader stock market indexes as certain subsectors of our asset classes have been uniquely hit by the pandemic, and while they have representation and technology-related subsectors, it is less than the amount of tech in the market overall. With that as a starting point, we believe that conditions later in 2021 and 2022 may create good entry points for these asset classes as the vaccine continues to be distributed, businesses reopen and recovery brings back the more cyclical real estate and infrastructure subsectors that have been disproportionately hit. In the fourth quarter, infrastructure returned 8.4%, which lagged the global stock index return of 14.8%. While we underperformed our benchmark in the fourth quarter, we exceeded our excess return target for the full year. Assessing the infrastructure universe's sensitivity to the economic situation and pandemic, we believe that 9% benefits from secular trends, 50% is relatively unaffected by the economy and pandemic, 20% is directly sensitive to the economic recovery, and 21% will be reliant on successful penetration of the vaccine. Key investment themes for infrastructure include digital transformation of economies, including 5G deployment; decarbonization and development of renewable power; and the potential for recovery in travel. We continue to see adoption of infrastructure allocations with asset consultants and institutions. With the new administration and potential for additional fiscal stimulus via infrastructure, we also believe that wealth advisers may have more interest as well. In fact, our closed-end fund, UTF, is now trading at a premium to its NAV, indicating investor demand and anticipation of recovery. In the fourth quarter, U.S. real estate returned 8.1% compared with the S&P 500, which was up 12.1%, and global real estate returned 13.2%. For the year, we outperformed our benchmarks in all strategies by region and style and by amounts that exceed our excess return targets across the board. In terms of where real estate is headed, all eyes are on the vaccine and the timing of the reopening of the economy. Currently, some sectors such as apartments are seeing stabilization with rents flattening out, which is a key step in the recovery progression. The secular winners such as cell towers, data centers and industrial continue to have great fundamentals. Probably, the biggest unknown relates to return-to-office dynamics and the proportion of occupancy that may be permanently impaired. Broadly speaking, lenders have been kicking the can down the road, but banks are now beginning to feel pressure to address problem loans. While pricing transparency for many sectors is opaque, we expect transactional activity to pick up as the economic recovery takes hold. Overall, on most metrics, REITs are very cheap, as cheap as they were in the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009. As the recovery unfolds, considering how much REITs have lagged, we would expect a catch-up in performance. I also want to mention that our real assets multi-strategy portfolio had very good relative performance in 2020, outperforming by 200 basis - 240 basis points for the year, which puts us in good position with investors who are looking for inflation protection. Looking backward over a period of low inflation, investors had not felt a need for this portfolio, which includes real estate, infrastructure, resource equities, commodities and short-duration credit. However, it has the highest inflation sensitivity of all of our strategies, and we are seeing increased interest in inflation protection, perhaps no surprise considering the deficit and monetary statistics cited earlier. As Matt mentioned, allocating resources to our investment department is always a priority. This past year has been particularly gratifying as we continue to see the growing return on investments we've made over the past 5 years in our people, IT, processing strategies and data and quantitative resources. One example is our transition of U.S. REIT team leadership that we announced in the fourth quarter. Our current head, Tom Bohjalian, will be retiring in the middle of this year, and our succession plan has been put in place with Jason Yablon assuming leadership in partnership with Matt Kirschner. It's hard to imagine replacing as a strong a leader and investor as Tom. But in the spirit of continuous improvement, we expect Jason to give Tom a run for his money. We'll continue to build the team for depth and succession. We will never be complacent on performance and innovation, and we will continue to drive our Alpha Mining initiatives. Last quarter, I noted that we have a stable of - track record accounts for strategies that have been developed over the past 3 years, ranging from existing strategy extensions to new ideas generated by our investment teams. All but one outperformed benchmarks last year. We'll be adding more track record accounts in 2021, including one in renewables and clean energy. Our challenge will be to convert these investment ideas into investor allocations. Our recent hire of Greg Bottjer from Nuveen, who heads Global Product Strategy and Development, will help us bring some of these strategies to market as well as map out real asset strategy extensions for the next phase of growth. Overall, I'd say the state of our investment department is strong. And we are optimistic about our ability to capitalize on the investment opportunities that are expected to come along with a post-pandemic economic recovery. Thanks for listening. I'll turn the call over to Bob Steers.