Joe Harvey
Analyst · John Dunn with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead
Thank you, Matt, and good morning. This morning, I will review our relative investment performance, then share how our investment teams are operating in this environment and offer some perspectives about our major asset classes. The macro environment in the first quarter was turned upside down in dramatic fashion spinning from goldilocks with positive conditions for our asset classes to a crisis, humanitarian as well as economic, including a bear market and recession. Virtually no asset class was spared from the cessation of economic activity and concerns about the price and availability of credit and emerging balance sheet stress. Turning to our scorecard. In the first quarter, seven of our nine core strategies outperformed their benchmarks. For the last 12 months, six of nine core strategies outperformed. Measured by AUM, 64% of our portfolios are outperforming on a one-year basis, 77% are outperforming over three years, and 99% are outperforming over five years. The decline in our batting averages from last quarter was primarily attributable to our preferred strategies, which have consistently outperformed long-term but underperformed during the market decline in March. 95% of our open-end fund AUM is rated 4 or 5 star by Morningstar. Our investment teams are functioning at a high level, thanks in large part to our IT infrastructure and operations teams who have facilitated a successful and complete transition to a work-from-home environment. In addition to our normal investment routines, we have implemented special research task forces focused on topics such as the virus, its trajectory and our country's and the world's ability to track and treat it and how this crisis will change longer term behaviors and business trends. Each team is continually reunderwriting base and bear case forecast as our views evolve in order to synthesize our top down macro roadmap with valuation regimes and guide portfolio decisions. In addition, our teams are spending a lot of time with clients to help them understand what is happening and, in many cases, advising on how to deploy capital to take advantage of dislocations. In navigating this recession, we are positioning in companies with the healthiest balance sheets, because it will be difficult in the near-term to predict the duration and scope of the virus and its economic impact and the extent to which cash flow interruptions will create balance sheet distress. We are focusing on what we can assess with some degree of confidence, which companies have balance sheets that we believe are likely to be strong enough to avoid equity dilution. Then we can identify distressed and fix-it opportunities as the economic effects of the recession ripple through. Turning to our major strategies by AUM, U.S. REITs declined 23% and global real estate declined 29% in the quarter. We outperformed benchmarks in both our core U.S. and global strategies. The magnitude of the drawdown that REITs experienced would be surprising and most bear market scenarios, yet nobody would have realistically contemplated a complete cessation of business in some sectors giving tenants economic and political cover to postpone or avoid rent payments. On one end of the spectrum, about 34% of our investment universe is directly affected with hotels and gaming revenue trending toward zero and regional mall properties being closed. On the other end, about 53% of the universe is comprised of businesses that are less or positively affected, including data centers, cell towers and warehouses. In our underwriting, even considering the disruption in cash flow, our team believes that REITs have two to three years of liquidity banks unlike during the global financial crisis are supportive in providing liquidity through lines of credit, term loans and in some cases covenant relaxation. In addition, there have been a handful of unsecured bond deals since the crisis unfolded at reasonable all-in rates, a market that was completely closed during the GFC. Given our best thinking for new levels of cash flow, we believe that REITS globally are trading at the low end of their cash flow multiple and asset valuation ranges. As a result, we are seeing institutional investors who invest in both the private and public market shift capital to the, where the markdowns have occurred, the public market. We're excited to help these institutions execute on these allocations and we believe this may represent an inflection point for market share gains by private investing. One milestone on a topic is the long and growing list of private property commingled funds, both institutional and retail that are enforcing withdrawal gates because appraised valuations are stale and uncertain. These redemption roadblocks are an important reminder of the value of liquidity and our franchise and listed real assets. It will take some time for opportunities to emerge in the private market, but ultimately there will be problems with tenant bankruptcies and vacancies, leasing on completion of new construction and refinancings or defaults on debt. When the opportunities emerge, the public market will provide the capital for REITs to capitalize on the opportunities. In fact, earlier this week, our real estate strategies provided equity to a net lease retail REIT to take advantage of potential acquisition opportunities. Preferred securities declined 10% in the first quarter despite the collapse of the 10-year treasury yield. Credit spreads widened dramatically and prices were impacted further by liquidity issues in the early phase of the drawdown. We underperformed in both our core and low duration preferred strategies as we were more aggressively positioned in credit and we're overweight Europe and contingent capital securities, or CoCos, which are mostly obligations of European banks and tend to be below investment grade with higher beta. Since the end of the quarter, preferreds have rallied almost 6%, thanks in part to the liquidity provided through the numerous monetary and credit support programs by the Fed and Treasury. We have already recovered some of our underperformance and have performed well compared with peers. Considering the banks represent over 50% of the preferred market, investors are wrestling with two questions, first, are US bank is healthy enough to weather loan losses and pay preferred dividends. We believe that bank's much improved capital ratios, liquidity and profitability further supported by dramatic policy measures will encourage their continued payment of preferred dividends. The second question, what is the risk that European banks hit capital triggers or stop paying CoCo dividends. Here too, we believe for many of the same reasons as well as the ECB's affirmation of preferred dividends, the overall risk of dividend interruptions for our European bank holdings is unlikely. All things considered with yields at 5.4% for domestic investment grade preferreds and about 7% for CoCos, we believe there is ample compensation compared with corporate bonds yielding 3.3%. Global listed infrastructure declined 21% in the quarter compared with the global equity index decline of 22%. We enjoyed strong outperformance compared with our benchmark. As an asset class, infrastructure behaved less defensively than it has historically as some sectors have been directly hit by the fallout from the virus. We estimate that about 35% of the infrastructure universe is more affected by the crisis most notably, airports, oil and gas pipelines, toll roads and railroads. By contrast, 65% is less affected or benefits such as the case with cell towers. Just as with real estate, infrastructure investors can now find the best opportunities in the public market. In closing, while we are disappointed in the value declines in our portfolios, we are pleased that we are effectively managing what is within our control. Looking forward, and acknowledging there are still many unknowns about the virus and the economy, we are planning for a longer so called U-shaped rather than V-shaped recovery. There will be some permanent damage to our economy and to corporate, personnel and government balance sheets, along with greater headwinds from higher debt levels, savings trends and contingency costs. It's likely that interest rates will stay low for a while, which should make the income generation of our asset classes appealing during a period when earnings power and growth are uncertain. Looking further out, considering the amount of stimulus that will have accumulated, the probability for higher inflation at some point has gone up. As a result, we believe that investors' needs for income, true diversification and liquidity will be even greater. This is my fifth major bear market at Cohen & Steers. After each previous one, we found major investment opportunities ranging from providing private placement growth capital to REITs in 1998 to capitalizing on discounts and preferred stocks during the tech boom in 2000 when income was shunned to recapitalizing REITs in the GFC. We believe that opportunities will emerge from this horrible crisis, and we are well positioned to find them. With that, I'll turn the call over to Bob Steers.