Andrew Brown
Analyst · Raymond James. Please state your question
Thanks, Dan, and good afternoon everyone. As a reminder my comments today are on a non-GAAP basis as I discuss our 2015 financial performance and our outlook for 2016. We had a great 2015 and I’m very pleased to report on first full-year of profitability on an adjusted EBITDA basis. I’m very happy to say that we are in the final year of a multiyear transition to an all digital business. Although, Chegg has become simpler to run we appreciate how challenging it’s been to understand our business especially during this transition period. Given we are in the last year of the transition, we will be giving guidance consistent with how we are now operating the Company. In addition, they have been changing dynamics in the textbook industry that will be important to understand for our 2016 guidance. There are lots of moving parts and our goal is to make this easier to understand. As such I encourage you to review that financial slides in the investor presentation and the investor datasheet on our IR website. Let me first start with more detail on Q4. We had an excellent quarter overall. Digital revenue grew 34% to $38.1 million, which was at the low end of our guidance range while adjusted EBITDA was the top end. Here’s why; first there was a trend away from eTextbooks towards print because publishers increase the price of eTextbooks and print rental prices continue to decline. This doesn’t affect Chegg’s long-term business model, it does however impact our topline revenue because when we rent an eTextbook we recognize 100% of the revenue versus when we rent a physical book we recognized approximately 20% of the rental price. In addition, eTextbooks are priced approximately twice as much as a print rental. Effectively we’re getting approximately 10% of the revenue from a print book through Ingram as we were from an eTextbook. Fortunately this does not have a material impact on the bottom line. We experienced similar trends in our recently completed winter semester and have factored this into our outlook for 2016. The second factor as Dan mentioned was that in Q4 we drove significant demand to our tutoring business, but unfortunately we are unable to meet approximately 50% of that demand during peak periods. Although, tutoring remains our fastest growing business, this constrained revenue for the quarter and consequently we are now being more cautious how we model the rate of growth in 2016. Turning to fourth quarter profitability, we saw gross margins increased to 61.5% better than expected. This was driven primarily by high incremental margins from our subscription services. This resulted in Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $15.3 million and more importantly adjusted EBITDA of $5.4 million for the full-year. Chegg’s first profitable year, which is a significant improvement from the $13 million adjusted EBITDA loss we’ve recorded in 2014. Looking at the balance sheet, we ended the year with $89 million in cash and investments as well as a $29 million receivables balance with Ingram. This receivables balance is slightly higher than we’d originally anticipated and is directly connected to the shift from eTextbooks to print that I just discussed. To meet the increase print demand we went into the market and bought more prints books on Ingram behalf. So our contract with Ingram these funds will be paid back to us later this year. We also ended the year with less than 30 million of textbook inventory compared to 81 million in the previous year and we expect this to be close to zero as we exit 2016 and become all digital business. With that, let me turn to discussing how we are running and reporting the business in 2016. As we are now the tail end of our transition to Ingram, we are changing how we report and guide revenue to reflect how our business will look once this transition is complete. We will also start guiding all print revenue on a pro forma basis, which assumes it is all commission based revenue. In addition, we will guide pro forma gross margin guidance on an annual basis so that you can track our progress to our longer term model. We believe the core value of our Company and where shareholders should focus is on our high growth products, which we now call Chegg Services, which includes our subscription services such as Chegg Study, Chegg Tutors and Test Prep and marketing services, enrollment marketing, brand partnerships and careers. We also believe that represent the future growth of revenue and profitability of our Company and where most of our focus in investments will occur. We will also be reporting and guiding separately on total Required Materials, which includes revenue from print textbooks, eTextbooks as well as the Ingram commission. We are doing this to increase transparency into our slow growth business, but more importantly it matches the way students come to Chegg to search for textbooks and our goal is providing students the textbooks they need in the format they want. Also as a reminder we will report and guide Required Materials on a pro forma basis as though the Ingram transition will complete. We believe this concept gives shareholders greater visibility into how big and fast our Chegg Services are growing unless they monitor the Required Materials business separately. For modeling purposes, we have provided historical revenue break that’s in the appendix of the investor deck on the IR website along with expected seasonality for 2016 as we move through this transition. Looking more specifically at 2016, we expect to see strong revenue growth in Chegg Services which has consistently being growing above 30% annually. In Required Materials where we shipped more than 6 million units annually, we expect unit growth market which right now is slightly down due to trends in admission. As recently as 2014 we saw eTextbooks unit growth of over 60%. We now believe given the shift in student preference for lower price print that eTextbooks will decline by a small amount in 2016. This of course will impact topline revenue, but will have no meaningful impact on our profitability. We also plan on making important investments in 2016, and in the areas that Dan articulated as our 2016 objectives, while continuing to improve profitability. With that, let me turn to our outlook. As previously communicated when we announce the Ingram partnership a year ago, GAAP revenue for 2016 will decline year-over-year as we finish the last year of this transition. As a result for 2016 we expect total GAAP revenue between $230 million and $250 million, pro forma revenue between $170 million and $185 million with Chegg Services revenue between $115 million and $125 million or growing approximately 30%. Gross margin between 48% and 50% on a GAAP basis and 64% to 66% on a pro forma basis with adjusted EBITDA of $10 million to $20 million. For the first quarter of 2016, we expect total GAAP revenue to be between $60 million and $65 million, pro forma revenue to be between $44 million and $47 million and Chegg Services revenue to be between $24 million and $26 million. Gross margin between 38% and 40% on a GAAP basis and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $2 million to breakeven. Looking further out, we continue to expect to exit 2017 at an EBITDA margin of 25% and to upgrade at this level for all of 2018. As result of the eTextbook dynamics that I discussed earlier it’s less clear on the timing of total revenue growth. However, we believe text services, which excludes Required Materials to drive our growth and should be able to grow at approximately 30%. We are very excited about the progress we’ve made and fully transforming Chegg’s business. In a short period of time, Chegg has come from a textbook company that loss money to a digital platform that offers a suite of student per services and is growing profitability. With that, I’ll turn it over to the operator for your questions.