Andrew Brown
Analyst · Raymond James. Please state your question
Thanks, Dan, and good afternoon everyone. My comments today are on a non-GAAP basis as I discus our financial performance and our 2015 outlook. As expected Chegg’s financial profile continues to improve with revenue mix increasingly shifting to higher margin digital revenue. We are very pleased with our Q3 performance. We had a solid [rush] [ph] with second half GMV tracking to plan and digital revenue expanding. There were a few factors that caused more of our second half revenue to occur in Q3 than previously thought, including our partner Ingram exceeding expectations in the number of books they fulfilled, resulting in more commission-based revenue recognized in Q3 than previously planned. We also saw a higher proportion of text book purchases, which are recognized upfront versus rentals that are recognized ratably. For those of you new to the story, the partnership with Ingram is a significant shift in our business model. Instead of buying and shipping text books ourselves, our partnership enables us to collect a commission of approximately 20% on the GMV of books ordered by students through our platform, but owned and shipped by Ingram. Some books continue to be owned by us, but we are no longer buying any new inventory and we expect to fully liquidate our text book library by the end of 2016. This means Chegg is no longer spending its own capital on owning or warehousing text books. We expect this to allow us to save more than 100 million in working capital annually, which we are investing in new digital services. We believe these services represent a much bigger opportunity, driving higher growth, higher margins, and profitability. Meanwhile the partnership allows us to maintain all the benefits of offering students textbooks, including control over the size of the catalogue, the director-student relationship, the ability to market all of our other digital services, and of course the ability to deliver surprise and delight in shipments, which helps further build our brand. As Ingram owns a greater share of books offered on our platform and fulfills an increasing number of orders, higher margin commission-based revenue will replace lower-margin print revenue from our legacy business model. Also as noted on previous calls, during the transition we will experience a decline in print revenue until the end of 2016, at which point we will no longer own any of our print inventory and emerge as a 100% digital company. As you can imagine measuring Chegg’s text book revenue during the next few quarters is complicated, as the ownership composition of the catalogue changes over that period. Given this complexity, we will continue to guide print revenue by GMV, because we believe this is more indicative of the health of our text book business. Also in 2016, we will guide the company on pro forma revenues, which treats the transition as if it were complete and better reflects Chegg’s business model going forward. Returning to our Q3 results, overall Q3 digital revenues grew by 45% year-over-year, driven by our digital learning portfolio and from commission-based revenue received through our Ingram partnership. Digital revenue comprised 47% of total revenue in the third quarter, an increase of nearly 15 points year-over-year. As expected, third quarter print revenue declined 22% year-over-year to $43 million. This reflects the ongoing transition of the print text book business to a commission-based model with more print text book orders being fulfilled by our partner Ingram. Overall GMV was approximately $113 million in the third quarter, up about – up from about $110 million in the third quarter last year. We’re already seeing the positive impact on gross margins and profitability as a result of our new business model and higher digital mix. Third quarter gross margins continued to expand, improving 11 points year-over-year to 27.5% on stronger digital mix. In addition EBITDA losses were cut nearly in half to $8.9 million, from 6 -- $16.8 million in the third quarter. Through the transition, keep in mind that gross margin and profitability are seasonally low in the third quarter as we incurred the costs related to the fall-rush period, but was recognized much of the print revenue ratably over the semester. Looking at the balance sheet, we ended the third quarter with cash, cash equivalents, and investments of approximately $105 million, and we expect to finish the year with over $100 million. In addition we finished the third quarter with about $45 million, in text book inventory, down from $80 million at the beginning of the year, and we remain on track to exit our Kentucky warehouse by the end of the year, per our plan. With that let me turn to our outlook. Overall, we are reaffirming the following guidance, for the full year we continue to expect total revenue between 295 million and 310 million, digital revenue between 137 million and 145 million, and print GMV of approximately 230 million. Gross margin between 36% and 38%, adjusted EBITDA of breakeven to 5 million turning the corners of profitability for the first time in the company’s history. And finally free cash flow of 15 million to 20 million. As I indicated earlier we did see a slight timing shift of revenue into Q3, which impacts O4 but the second half remains the same. Based on this in the fourth quarter we expect total revenue to be between 68 million and 74 million and digital revenue between 38 million and 42 million. Gross margin between 56% and 58% and adjusted EBITDA between 10 million and 15 million. We are having a very good year and we remain very enthusiastic about the future. We expect to emerge as a 100% digital business at the end of 2016, and during 2017 we expect to reach our target model of 25% revenue growth, greater than 60% gross margins, and 25% EBITDA margins along with strong free cash flow. With that I'll turn it over to the operator for your questions.