Jill Golder
Analyst · Bank of America. Please proceed with your question
Good morning and thank you Sandy. Given the circumstances, my prepared remarks today will primarily focus on our sales performance, financial impacts related to COVID-19, our liquidity position, and capital allocation. I want to begin by discussing our sales performance. For the quarter, Cracker Barrel comparable store restaurant sales decreased 41.7% as traffic declined 43.6% and average check increased 1.9%. The quarter started strong with February comparable store restaurant sales of positive 2.4% before declining by 36.5% in March and 78.6% in April due to the COVID impact. Comparable store retail sales decreased by 45.5% in the third quarter. We're encouraged by our recent topline trends. We've seen sequential improvements in weekly comparable store sales since we began reopening dining rooms and comparable store restaurant sales for stores with open dining rooms were down approximately 32% in the most recently completed fiscal week compared to declines of approximately 76% for stores limited to off-premise only. I would now like to speak to some of the P&L impacts related to COVID-19. As Sandy outlined, we took a number of actions in response to the pandemic to ensure the health and safety of our employees and guests, support our employees, and strengthen our business model. For example, we provided additional pay to our hourly employees as their hours were being reduced due to dining room closures, which totaled approximately $17 million. In addition, as noted in the earnings release, in the third quarter, we incurred approximately $7.1 million in COVID-related expenses, which includes items such as food waste due to dining room closures, severance, and meals we provided to our employees, as well as inventory write-down. Additionally, we recorded an impairment charge of $18.3 million in store assets as well as a $132.9 million impairment charge related to our equity investment in Punch Bowl Social. Third quarter GAAP earnings loss per diluted share were $6.81. Excluding those $7.1 million in COVID-related expenses, the impairment related to store assets and the impairment related to Punch Bowl Social as well as the related tax impacts, adjusted earnings loss per diluted share were $1.81. As Sandy mentioned, we also took decisive actions to strengthen our business model. We believe these initiatives, such as the organizational realignment, will result in sustainable annualized savings of approximately $50 million. Turning to liquidity and capital allocation, we believe that going into the pandemic, the company was well-positioned to deal with liquidity challenges due to the following. First, our consistent profitability and cash flow generation. Second, our prudent approach to capital allocation; third, our conservative leverage ratio; fourth, the increase in our credit facility to $950 million in 2018; and lastly, our ownership of a significant portion of our locations. That said, given the unprecedented challenges we are facing, we took additional actions to further bolster liquidity. In addition to what we've already mentioned in our prepared remarks, we suspended our dividend and share repurchase programs, we've substantially suspended CapEx, except for strategic initiatives and essential store maintenance, we aggressively managed retail inventories, including canceling orders were feasible, we fully drew down on our revolver, and then on May 28th, we exercised an accordion feature to increase our borrowing capacity by an additional $40 million. And lastly, while we were within our covenants during the third quarter, we received covenant relief for the next three quarters beginning in our current fourth quarter. Taking into account our recent initiatives to strengthen our business model and conserve cash, combined with how well our operators have been managing their costs, we estimate our weekly cash burn rate is neutral at comparable store restaurants sales, down approximately 45%. This estimate is at the corporate level and assumes modest investments in key initiatives. We're also pleased that we were able to keep all of our stores open, and that they have consistently generated positive variable cash flow, while operating and off-premise-only model. We believe we have a strong liquidity position as we ended the quarter with approximately $363 million of cash on hand, which was further strengthened by drawing down the accordion. However, the environment and outlook remain uncertain and we believe we have additional options to further increase liquidity should this be warranted. We have been working closely with the Board to appropriately modify our capital allocation strategy in light of the current circumstances. We plan to give additional updates as appropriate, but I want to provide some commentary on how we're currently thinking about capital allocation. Investing in Cracker Barrel will remain a capital allocation priority. Although we are focused on cash conservation in the near-term, we will be making prudent investments in our menu evolution initiatives, our beer and wine program, our digital strategy, and our point of sale system. We plan to increase our investments as our business normalizes and as we generate more cash. We look forward to resuming unit growth for both Cracker Barrel and Maple Street. We are still working to finalize our fiscal 2021 plans and we tentatively expect to open two Cracker Barrels in fiscal 2021. These juice stores were originally planned to open in fiscal 2020, but they were delayed due to the pandemic. We currently expect to open approximately 15 Maple Street units. We believe Maple Street has attractive unit economics with AUVs over $1 million in a normal non-COVID environment and an investment costs below $750,000. With respect to our regular dividends, the Board continues to evaluate this and intends to reinstate the dividend as soon as we are in a condition to do so. Lastly, regarding capital allocation, we are currently above our long-term leverage ratio target due to our increased debt and reduced EBITDA and we plan to balance our investments and the return of cash to shareholders with right-sizing our debt levels. As announced in March, we have withdrawn our previously issued fiscal 2020 outlook, including earnings guidance. However, I would like to provide some comments around our future expectations. As of this weekend, 505 stores had opened dining rooms. The situation remains fluid, but presently, we hope to have substantially all dining rooms open by the end of June. However, it will likely be some time before we are able to completely lift restrictions at all of our dining rooms and we expect that off-premise sales growth will remain elevated for the next several quarters. Looking ahead, we believe we will potentially benefit from several factors. First, we are a trusted differentiated brand with loyal guests. Second, the geographic concentration of our stores has not been in parts of the country that were most impacted. Third, our interstate locations position us well in the event that families choose to take vacations by car this summer. However, our restaurant outlook is cautious for several reasons. There continues to be quite a bit of uncertainty around consumer willingness to revisit full-service restaurants in general in the near-term. Additionally, our older guests may be more hesitant to return because they are at higher risk for COVID-19. And lastly, there is a lot of uncertainty around the economic impacts of the pandemic. Retail sales for may have been encouraging as we've reopened dining room, but our outlook for retail is also cautious. We expect that retail will continue to be pressured by social distancing measures in both the dining room and the retail area. Additionally, we anticipate that our retail business will be further challenged by the broader environment, as our merchandise is highly discretionary. And we believe consumer spending will be more restrained. Our teams have done a nice job managing inventories and they are focused on the sell through of our merchandise, especially our seasonal assortments. Due to the highly promotional environment, we do anticipate lower retail margins. Lastly, we are closely monitoring our restaurant supply chain and have been having regular discussions with our vendor partners. To-date, we have not seen and we do not expect any meaningful disruptions or supply issues for the remainder of our fiscal year. Although we do believe it is likely we will see elevated commodity market volatility in fiscal 2021. Because of the numerous uncertainties surrounding the economy and the restaurant and retail industries, our outlook is cautious and we anticipate that these industries and our business will be facing pandemic-related challenges for some time. As a result, we expect our earnings performance will likely be somewhat choppy in the coming quarters. Despite this, we believe we are well positioned to successfully deal with these challenges and continue to drive long-term value creation. I will now turn the call over to the operator so that we can take your questions. Thank you.