Gregory S. Levin
Analyst · Oppenheimer & Co
All right. I'll take it from here. Thanks, Greg, and thanks to the other Greg. Let me take a couple of minutes I'm going to get through some of the highlights for the second quarter, fight some forward-looking commentary for the rest of 2013. And all such commentary subject to the risk and uncertainties regarding forward-looking statements that are included in our SEC filings. Additionally, my commentary may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we use in our internal review of the business and that we believe will help provide insight into our ongoing operation. As Greg Trojan mentioned, our revenues increased approximately 10% to $198.5 million from $180.7 million in the prior year's comparable quarter. This increase is due to an approximate 11% increase in operating weeks, offset by a decrease in our weekly sales average by about 1%. Our comparable restaurant sales were basically flat, as we mentioned, at a positive 0.03%. As you may recall, we started the quarter relatively strong primarily due to the Easter holiday flip-flop, in which Easter Sunday fell on the last week of the first quarter of this year. However, after a solid overall April, so April held up relatively well during the quarter, our comparable restaurant sales turned slightly negative in May. It continued that trend into June. As we have mentioned over the last year, we continue to see softer comparable restaurant sales during the Monday-through-Thursday time period as opposed to the weekends. Additionally, lunch in general is softer than dinner. We continue to see strong comparable restaurant sales in both the mid-afternoon and late night part of our business, so in those offpeak business hours. In analyzing our comparable restaurant sales this quarter and adding on a little to what Greg Trojan was talking about, we are experiencing a longer honeymoon periods than in the past, resulting in pressure from our newer restaurant as they come into the comparable restaurant sales base. Restaurants currently come into the comp sales base after 18 months of operations. And therefore, we are comparing month 19 of operations to month 7 of operations for newer restaurants. This longer honeymoon period, I believe, is due to the increased brand awareness of the concept as we build out certain markets. As a result, our class of 2011 restaurants impacted our comparable restaurant sales by about 60 basis points for the quarter. Said differently, if we pulled out the class of 2011 restaurants from our comparable restaurant sales calculation, our comp sales would've been a positive 0.6% for the quarter. Overall, we are -- we continue to be pleased with the sales volume from the class of 2011, which are achieving our internal targets, and we believe, as they get further away from their honeymoon comparisons, should have the ability to produce some nice comp sales for us. Just to give you an idea of the impact from our new restaurants, for example, our Pembroke Pines restaurant in the South Florida area, it opened in September of 2011. So it just went into the comp sales base during the second quarter of 2013 and it averaged $122,000 per week during this quarter. At the same time, last year, so months 7 through 9 after its original opening, the restaurant was averaging about $132,000 a week in sales. That is a decrease of about 8%, but as you can see, very strong top line sales for that restaurant. And without getting into every single restaurant or every single class here, I would note that our class of 2010 restaurants, which is now technically in their second year of comp sales, come positive for the quarter and also is positive year-to-date. We also continue to experience softer comparable restaurant sales in California as I mentioned. I believe there are few things that are impacting California. First, as we've said before, we have built out California, so most of our newer restaurants, while generating strong top line sales and therefore solid returns on shareholder capital, tend to slightly cannibalize nearby BJ's Restaurants. Secondly, in the second quarter, we experienced that moved in the graduation time frame for many of the California state colleges. This resulted in college graduations during the same week as many high school graduations. This shortened our graduation period and limited the amount of large parties we could serve due to capacity constraints during the important -- during this important season for our business. Also in California, we are seeing greater competitive intrusion than in the past. In fact, I would probably say that this is true throughout the entire United States. I think what most people forget about BJ's is during the recession years and really until recently, we were one of just a few casual dining restaurants growing. As a result, we continue building in California and many other states as others were shutting restaurants down and stopping growth. Now as the economy has stabilized and has been growing, albeit at a very slow rate, we are seeing many more new restaurants coming into our trade areas. In fact, if you have paid attention to the jobs report, restaurants have added about 52,000 new jobs in the last month, so in the month of June, which was approximately 26% of the growth in employment. While at the same time, according to the Commerce Department, food service sales declined 1.2% in June and have been growing at a rate less than in traditional retail sales over this last year. What this tells me is there is a greater supply of new restaurants, yet demand is not growing at the same rate that supply is coming onboard. In fact, based on some information we put together, we estimate that at a minimum, approximately 20 of our restaurants were impacted by new restaurants that have recently opened. Generally, this impact to our sales is transitory. And after the initial honeymoon from the new restaurants, our sales typically come back especially considering the higher-quality, more differentiated dining experience we are providing at a price point that is either generally the same or less than many of our peer restaurants in casual dining. Our flat comparable sales increase for the second quarter consisted primarily of a low 2% benefit from menu pricing, offset by an estimated decrease in guest traffic in the 3% range, and with a net favorable mix and incident rate. In regards to the middle of our P&L, our cost of sales was 24.4% of sales. Now it's down about 50 basis points compared to last year's second quarter and sequentially, was down about 10 basis points from our first quarter. This decrease from last year's second quarter was primarily due to menu pricing and reduced waste, offsetting a pretty benign commodity cost environment and cost increases due to menu mix. The decrease sequentially from the first quarter of 2013 is primarily related to a full quarter's worth of menu pricing that went into effect in February of this year. Labor during the second quarter was 34.2%, which was flat with last year's second quarter. We continue to see improvements in hourly labor from the new labor scheduling and productivity system that we implemented during the third quarter of fiscal 2012. Additionally, based on top line performance, our restaurant-level incentive compensation is about 40 basis points less in this year's second quarter compared to the same period last year when we achieved a 4.4% increase in comparable restaurant sales. The improved hourly labor productivity and lower restaurant-level incentive compensation helped offset increases in our management labor, workers' compensation insurance and food are raised in California and Florida. Our operating and occupancy costs increased by 110 basis points to 21.6% of sales compared to last year's second quarter. Approximately 50 basis points of this increase related to the planned additional marketing spend. As such, we spent about $3.8 million on marketing-related costs during the second quarter, which approximated 1.9% of sales as compared to 1.4% last year. The other 60 basis points is primarily due to higher general liability insurance and facilities cost for our restaurants. Our general and administrative expenses for the second quarter were approximately $12.6 million or 6.4% of sales. G&A came in about $600,000 lighter than what I anticipated as we reduced incentive compensation based on performance to date. Including G&A, it's $918,000 and $789,000 of the equity compensation for both 2013 and 2012, respectively, or 0.5% of sales and 0.4% of sales for each year. Depreciation and amortization was $11.9 million and it averaged about $6,900 per restaurant week, which is in line with our most recent trends regarding depreciation and amortization. Restaurant opening expenses were approximately $2.3 million during the second quarter, which was primarily related to the 4 new restaurants that opened during this quarter, plus some opening cost related to our restaurants that opened at the end of the first quarter and opening costs related to restaurants that are expected to open in the third and fourth quarters of this year. On average, our preopening costs continue to be around $500,000 per restaurant. Our cash rate for the second quarter was approximately 28.1%, and I would expect our tax rate going forward to be around 29%. Before I turn the call back over to Greg Trojan, let me spend a couple of minutes providing some forward-looking commentary for the rest of 2013. All this commentary is subject to the risk and uncertainties associated with forward-looking statements in discussing our filings with the SEC. Based on the industry data we have seen today and heard from many other public restaurant companies, July sales have been much faster than anyone anticipated. Our comp sales through the first 3 weeks of July are in the negative 1% to 2% range. However, as I mentioned, it's very choppy and very difficult to discern a specific pattern. Looking specifically at the first 3 weeks of July, we continue to experience the drag on comp sales from our class of 2011 restaurants as they comp against our honeymoon periods for the prior year. Geographically in July, California continues to be soft, pretty much consistent with its prior trends, and we have seen some increased volatility in many other locations. Based on the macro data we have seen, the economy and the consumers feel very challenged with sluggish growth and stagnant wages. The consumer appears to be allocating what disposable income they have towards bigger-ticket items that they may have deferred over the years, such as cars, trucks, homes and other big-ticket items, such as furniture, at the expense of eating out. Additionally, we do know that sequestration is now just starting to take place in July, and this may also be having an effect on some of our locations where we have large numbers of federal government employees in our guest base. What we continue to see is when there is a reason to celebrate, restaurants and in particular, BJ's does very well. We saw this in quarter 1 with Valentine's Day and in quarter 2 with Mother's Day and Father's Day. In fact, over the Father's Day week, we had 8 new restaurant records and all of those were in California. However, absent a reason to dine out, it has made it very challenging to drive sales in the restaurant space. Even though we will be going over some eager comparisons in the second half of this year, including lapping the opening and closing ceremonies of the Summer Olympics, the political party conventions, as well as the presidential debate and election day, not to mention the increase in our own marketing spend, we still believe for those of you building your models to err on the side of conservatism and build your models based more on our current comparable restaurant sales trends. Our menu pricing for the third quarter will be around 2%. We do have approximately 1% of menu pricing that will be rolling off towards the end of September, thus dropping our pricing to around 1% for the fourth quarter, absent any new pricing. Our next pricing opportunity will be at the beginning of November when we roll out our new fall menu. At the current time and based on the uncertain macro environment, coupled with better-than-expected commodity environment, we have not yet decided how much pricing, if any, we may take when we introduce our November 2013 menu. As we've said before, pricing is the last lever we pull to drive sales. Our goal is to drive sales by offering a higher-quality, more differentiated dining experience in a more contemporary facility, executed with sincere hospitality and gold-standard service. We will not try and price our way to success. Our pricing strategy is about preserving our unit economics and any pricing we take is considered only after contemplating the success of our productivity and sales-building initiatives on our 4-wall margin. For the third quarter, I would expect around 1,775 or so restaurant weeks. In the past second quarter -- in this past second quarter, our commodity basket increased less than 1% from last year. However, we are expecting our commodities to increase in the low 2% range for the rest of this year based on our latest forecast from our supply chain team. Additionally, we are currently promoting our barbecue specials through the end of August, and these protein-centric LTOs tend to have higher overall food costs. Therefore, based on this forecast and the success of the barbecue, I'm expecting our cost of sales to increase into the middle upper 24% range for the rest of 2013. As I mentioned before, labor is significantly influenced by comparable sales increases or decreases. While our teams have done a solid job of executing in the current environment and adjusting their daily labor based on our new productivity system, it is difficult to gauge labor productivity in this soft, but volatile environment. Therefore, based on current comparable restaurant sales trends, as well as the increases we are experiencing in workers' compensation and higher food and taxes, labor in the third quarter may be in the upper 34% to low 35% range. Again, this is based on current sales trends. We want to make sure our labor is set-up to take care of our guests because the bottom line is great food and great service and hospitality will ultimately result in improved top line sales. We have said this many times, the guest sees our brand through our team members that take care of them every day. Therefore, we must and we'll hold our line in labor so that we continue to provide good service to our guests and not make rash decisions on labor that could tarnish our brand going forward. At the same time, I do believe based on the improvement we have made this year from our labor system, that with some improvement in the casual dining sales environment, we are poised to show great labor leverage. In the second quarter, our total operating occupancy costs were approximately $24,900 per week, including marketing cost. Marketing was about $2,200 per restaurant week in the second quarter, which equates to about 1.9% of sales in the second quarter. Therefore, as Greg Trojan mentioned, we intend to increase our marketing in the third quarter to drive top line sales. As such, I am expecting total operating occupancy cost to be in the low-to-mid $25,000 range per restaurant operating week for the third quarter. This is based on total marketing spend in the $4 million range for the quarter. Obviously, operating occupancy cost will vary as a percent of sales based on top line comparable sales. And based on the results of our marketing tactics, it may increase or decrease during the quarter. Therefore, I think it is better to think about operating and occupancy cost on a cost per week basis versus trying to model it as a percent of sales. Our absolute G&A dollar spend in Q2 -- actually in Q3 should be around $13 million to $13.5 million. And that is inclusive of equity compensation. I do want to remind everyone, our G&A can vary from quarter-to-quarter due to the number of managers in our advanced management training program, travel and other related costs due to the timing of opening of new restaurants and other factors. So as I've already mentioned, we currently expect restaurant opening cost to be about $500,000 per restaurant. We will incur preopening, noncash rent as much as 5 or 6 months before a restaurant opens. And therefore, preopening cost for any quarter may not be indicative of the number of restaurants that open in that quarter. I therefore would expect preopening to be around $3.7 million to $4.2 million in the third quarter. We currently anticipate our income tax rate, as I mentioned earlier, to be around 29%, and our diluted shares outstanding to be around 29 million. In regards to our liquidity, we ended the first quarter with a little over $43 million of cash -- we ended the second quarter with a little over $43 million of cash and investments. Our line of credit is for $75 million. It does not expire until January 2017. Our total gross capital expenditures to date is approximately $60 million. We continue to expect our gross capital expenditures for 2013 to be between $115 million and $120 million. And we plan to receive TI allowances and proceeds from the sale-leasebacks in the $15 million range. Therefore, our planned net CapEx is currently expected to be in the $100 million to $105 million range. We anticipate funding our expansion and capital expenditure from our cash and investments on our balance sheet, our cash flow from operations and from the proceeds from our tenant improvement allowances and sale-leaseback transactions. With that, I'm going to turn it over back you, Greg Trojan. Greg?