Gregory S. Levin
Analyst · Oppenheimer & Co
Thanks, Dianne. Yes, as we noted in our press release today, the overall sales environment for the casual dining industry continues to be a very challenging. The casual dining industry data book from a Knapp-Track and a Black Box showed negative comparable restaurant sales in July, August and September. Our sales more or less followed this pattern, and while our sales were not a strong as we expected, we were pleased with how our restaurant teams executed in terms of both cost management and delivering great service to our guests. Our revenues increased approximately 7.4% to $188.2 million from $175.2 million in the prior year's comparable quarter. This increase is due to an approximate 11% increase in total operating weeks, partially offset by a decrease in our weekly sales average by about 3.2%. Our comparable restaurant sales decreased 2.2% during the quarter, as compared to a positive 2.3% in last year's third quarter. Therefore, on a 2-year cumulative basis, our comparable restaurant sales were approximately flat. Our 2.2% decrease in comparable sales for the third quarter consisted primarily of an approximate 2% benefit from menu pricing, offset by a decrease in guest traffic. As you may recall, on the last quarter conference call, we noted that our comp sales were trending around a negative 2% for the first few weeks of July. This sales trend continued through the rest of July and into August and September. From a quarterly perspective, August was our softest month. Of late, our comparable restaurant sales have improved, which I will comment on shortly. There are a couple of things that impacted our comp sales for the quarter when compared to last year. From a marketing perspective, in last year's third quarter, we ran one of our strongest promotions of the year, our 2 Can Dine pizza special, which we ran in both August and September. While this year, we are running that same promotion in September and October. Instead in this past third quarter, we introduced a seasonal barbecue offer that began in July and ran through all of August. As part of this barbecue offer, we had a 2 Can Dine barbecue platter, which, while well received by our guests, had a lower incident rate than our traditional deep dish pizza for 2 offer. Also in last year's third quarter, we introduced our loyalty program in July and our new fall menu, which included our new line of hand-tossed pizzas in late September. While both of those initiatives last year impacted our cost structure, they did help drive sales, as they provided a promotional vehicle to keep BJ's top of mind for the consumer. As we mentioned in our press release today, we have intentionally focused less on new menu development this year, so that we can operationally digest our past initiatives and make investments in refining our menu and kitchen operations to improve our capacity going forward. As a result, our fall menu update will be rolling out in mid-November, which Greg Trojan will comment on shortly. In addition to the impact from the calendar shifts around our promotional items and new menu rollout, we continue to see our comp sales impacted by 3 other factors: an unusual level of new competitive intrusions; some sales cannibalization by new BJ's Restaurants, as we fill in gaps in certain trade areas to both protect and strengthen our overall position in those markets; and a mathematical impact of extended honeymoon sales period for some of our stronger opening new restaurants, when they first enter the comp base after 18 months of opening. During the quarter, we had 116 restaurants in our comp sales base, of which 41 restaurants or roughly 35% of our comp sales base, had some unfavorable impact from one or more of these factors on our overall comp sales calculation for the quarter. Competitive intrusions are a fact of life in a restaurant business and some cannibalization from filling out market is also not that unusual. The good news is that all of these impacted restaurants are solid, long-term performance for us. Our own cannibalization, while dampening our comp sales somewhat, is turning out some solid new restaurants, which will drive strong returns, net of any cannibalization impact. And in the past, we have seen sales comparisons flatten out, and eventually show some sales recovery. So we think it's important to have patience and confidence to cycle through these impacts. Geographically, our comparable restaurant sales in California were slightly less than our company average for the quarter. First, as I have discussed, most of our cannibalization has occurred in California. Secondly, we are seeing greater competitive intrusion than in the past throughout all of the U.S. but, in particular, in our core California market. Now this could just be due to the fact that we are already in most of the mature trade areas here in California and have been in those trade areas for some time now. So we see more of this new competitive intrusion than in our other [ph] newer markets. In regards to the middle of our P&L, our restaurant-level margins reflected the expected de-leveraging impact that occurs at negative comparable restaurant sales. While our restaurant operators did a good job of controlling everything that they can control, the fact is, that in the restaurant business, and probably more so at BJ's with our relatively large kitchen -- large menu, large kitchen and restaurant facilities in general, there is a certain amount of fixed cost that just can't be leveraged and unfortunately, de-leverage with negative comparable restaurant sales. And while you want to optimize your variable cost as much as you can, you do not want to do so at the expense of constricting sales building. At BJ's, we always make a conscious decision to staff our restaurant to build sales, first and foremost, then take care of our guests. Our cost of sales of 24.8% of sales was up about 10 basis points compared to last year's third quarter, and sequentially, up about 40 basis points from the second quarter. This increase sequentially was primarily due to changes in our menu mix, as we promoted our BBQ menu in July and August, and we also rolled out 2 of our higher-cost seasonal beers in the third quarter: our Fresh-Hop Field Day IPA in August and then our Oktoberfest Lager in September. This resulted in slightly higher beer cost of sales than the prior quarter due to some additional freight costs. Labor during the third quarter was 35.7%, which was up 70 basis points from last year's third quarter. While we were able to effectively react to the soft sales environment by adjusting our hourly labor scheduling as best we could, we de-leveraged on our fixed management wages and taxes and expenses. In fact, hourly labor was up only about 10 basis points in the quarter despite the negative comparable restaurant sales trends. Our operating occupancy costs were 23.2% for the third quarter, an increase of 130 basis points from last year's third quarter. Out of the 130 basis points increase from the prior year, approximately 80 basis points are related to increased marketing spend and the remaining 50 basis points due to de-leveraging based on our sales results. In regards to marketing specifically, we spent approximately $4.1 million, which came in at about 2.2% of sales. This compares to approximately $2.5 million in marketing spend in the same quarter last year or 1.4% of sales. Included in our marketing cost for Q3 this year was approximately $675,000 related to additional TV testing, which occurred in mid-September, then we also increased our promotional activity on a year-over-year basis, where currently about 1.4% of our gross sales are discounted compared to about 0.9% of our gross sales than last year's third quarter. While this constitutes a significant increase in discount activity from last year, we believe it is still well behind our typical mass casual competition. Excluding the marketing expenses I just mentioned, our operators continue to control the operating costs in our business. In fact, if you exclude marketing expenses from operating occupancy in both years, we averaged about $22,300 per operating week this quarter, compared to $22,400 last year. So it was down about $100. Our general and administrative expenses for the second quarter were approximately $11.4 million or 6% of sales. G&A came in at about $1.5 million lighter than anticipated due to lower equity compensation, as well as a reduction in accrued and incentive compensation based on performance to date. Depreciation and amortization was approximately $12.5 million or 6.6% of sales and average about 7,000 per restaurant week, in line with our most recent trends regarding depreciation and amortization. Our effective tax rate for the third quarter was unusually low at approximately 4%. This was primarily due to the recognition of our WOTC tax credit for 2012 and lower-than-expected pretax income. In regards to the WOTC tax credit as many of you probably know, this credit was suspended for all of 2012 and then reinstated as part of the American Taxpayer Relief Act on a retroactive basis. Therefore, we picked up the entire 2012 WOTC credit in this past third quarter provision. Now before I turn the call over to Greg Trojan, let me spend a couple of minutes providing some forward-looking commentary for the rest of 2013 and also some preliminary commentary for 2014. All of this commentary is subject to the risks and uncertainties associated with forward-looking statements as discussed in our filings with the SEC. Based on the continued sluggish economy and the industry data we have seen today, we expect the casual dining industry in general to remain challenging through at least the end of this year and most likely into early next year. However, as I previously mentioned, we have seen our recent comparable restaurant sales trends improve. To date through the first three weeks of October, our comparable restaurant sales are down just slightly at minus 0.5% or so. More importantly, we are seeing this improving trend, despite having less menu pricing in October than we have had all year. Our current menu pricing is a little over 1%. So for the first 3 weeks of October, we are seeing about a 200-basis-point improvement in our guest traffic compared to the third quarter. I do want to remind everyone that this is only for the first 3 weeks of October, and it is always difficult to ascertain a trend in the restaurant business after a few weeks. Also, our most productive sales time in the fourth quarter starts in December as -- and October tends to be a slower overall period for us. For the fourth quarter, I would expect about 1,875 restaurant weeks, and we do not plan on taking any menu pricing with our November menu. Our menu pricing will be a little over 1% for the quarter. I would expect our cost of sales to remain in the upper 24% range, pretty consistent with what we saw in Q3. As I mentioned before, labor is significantly influenced by comparable sales increases or decreases. While our team has done [ph] a solid job of executing in the current environment for adjusting their hourly labor scheduling based on our new productivity system, it is difficult to provide an estimate of total labor as a percent of sales in this soft but volatile environment. Now therefore, based on current comparable restaurant sales trends, as well as the increases we are experiencing in workers' compensation and some higher food [ph] taxes, labor in the third quarter may be in the 35% range. Again, this is based on our current sales trends. We're going to make sure our labor is frankly is setup to take care of our guests, because the bottom line is great food and great service and hospitality will ultimately result in improved top line sales. We have said this many times. The guest sees our brands through our team members that take care of them every day. Therefore, we must and we'll hold our line in labor so that we continue to provide great service to our guests and not make rash labor decisions that can tarnish our brand going forward. In the fourth quarter, we plan on spending about $4.6 million in marketing, which will be included in our operating and occupancy costs. Included in this is another $650,000 for television testings. And just so everyone understands our TV testing, it's comprised really of 2 weeks on air in September, covering about 75 restaurants. We then went dark for 2 weeks, and then we ran our second wave of TV commercials through the first 2 weeks of October for those same 75 restaurants. Therefore, our total TV costs were approximately $1.3 million, of which half of this was expensed in Q3, and the other half will be expensed in Q4. Therefore, including the marketing costs, I am anticipating our total operating occupancy cost to be around $25,500 to $26,000 per week, of which about $2,400 per week is related to marketing. Obviously, the operating occupancy cost will vary as a percent of sales based on top line comparable sales, much like we saw this quarter. Therefore, I think it's better to think about operating occupancy costs on a cost-per-week basis versus trying to model as a percentage of sales. Our absolute G&A dollar spend in Q4 should be around $13 million, and that is inclusive of equity compensation. I do want to remind everyone that G&A can vary from quarter-to-quarter due to the number of managers in our advanced management training program, travel and other related costs due to the timing of the openings of new restaurants, incentive compensation accruals and other factors. I would expect preopening costs to be around $3.5 million for the quarter, we expect to open 6 restaurants in the fourth quarter, plus, we saw some carryover costs from the restaurants that opened at the end of the third quarter. And I also anticipate some preopening ramps from restaurants expected to open early next year. We currently anticipate our income tax rate for the remainder of 2013 to be around 27% or so and our diluted shares outstanding to be around $29 million. In regards to our liquidity, we ended the third quarter with a little over $37 million of cash and investments. Our line of credit, for which we have no funded draws, is for $75 million and does not expire until January 2017. Our total gross capital expenditures to date are approximately $93 million, and we continue to expect our gross capital expenditures for this year to be between $115 million and $120 million, and we were planned to receive TI allowances and proceeds from sale leasebacks in the $15 million range. Therefore, our planned net CapEx is currently expected to be in the $105 million range. We anticipate funding our expansion and capital expenditures from our cash and investments on our balance sheet, our cash flow from operations and from the proceeds from our tenant improvement allowances and sale leaseback transactions. We are currently putting together our 2004 financial plan, which we'll be presenting to our board for final approval here in December. Therefore, while we do not have an approved plan to review at the investment community at the current time, let me provide you with some of management's preliminary expectations for next year. In regards to margins and inflationary costs for next year, it is still very difficult for us to comment with a high degree of certainty, as our supply chain department is currently in the middle of negotiations for many of our key commodity. Based on our latest information, and this is still very preliminary, as we are continuing to negotiate with our suppliers, we currently anticipate the cost of our aggregate commodity basket to increase around 1% to 2% next year. While we will do our best to manage through this input cost pressure using a combination of marketing and operational initiatives, coupled with prudent menu price adjustments and menu mix management. However, there can be no guarantee that we will be able to effectively do so. We will also have to watch the menu pricing actions of our competitors, including the intense promotional environment. We currently expect to roll out a new menu in February of next year. This new menu will have a new format, which we believe will make it easier for our guests to order and will include an array of new menu items in the $10 range. While we have not yet determined the amount of pricing we may take on this new menu, I would expect it to be in the 2% range or so. We do have a little over of 1% of menu pricing that will roll out at the end of January next year. In regards to labor next year, California, where we currently operate 63 restaurants, will be taking the first of a 2-step increase in minimum wage beginning July 1, 2014. The minimum wage in California will go up from $8 an hour to $9 an hour. We estimate that about a 1% increase in our menu pricing nationwide would cover this cost from a dollar perspective. We also have the option, if we choose, to just take the pricing in our California restaurants, which would equate to about 2% increase in California menu pricing. Again, these are just estimates. And just to put this in perspective, the city of San Jose, California, enacted a living wage ordinance, effective March of this year, increasing minimum wage in that city to $10 an hour. We currently operate 2 restaurants in San Jose. The first restaurant was opened in 2003, and the second restaurant we just opened earlier this year at the end of September. To compensate for the increased hourly wage rate, we took some menu pricing earlier there at our existing San Jose restaurants, as well as a higher menu pricing when we opened the new San Jose restaurant in September. Currently, both of these restaurants do very well for us. And our first San Jose restaurant, which is in our comp base, has seen comp sales up in the 2.5% range this year. In regards to our operating cost for next year, much like labor, we are seeing some increases in our general liability and other insurance programs. And I do anticipate some normal inflationary pressure for some of our -- other operating occupancy costs. At the same time, we do have a cost-savings initiative under way. And we do believe, over time, we can reduce our operating occupancy cost per week. Our goal would be to fund some of the savings into incremental marketing spend to continue to enhance our awareness with the consumer. After we finalize our plan for next year, I will be able to share our overall cost savings target for 2014. This cost saving does exclude any incremental spend we may see in marketing. While we have not finalized our marketing plans for fiscal 2014, I would expect our marketing spend to be somewhere in the 2.2% to 2.4% of sales range. In regard to G&A, our continued goal is to gain leverage as we continue to grow. As such, the only way we can do this is by making sure that our G&A costs do not increase at a rate greater than our top line growth. Therefore, our G&A costs for 2014 should grow at a rate less than our expected growth rate for total revenues, which will consist of an expected 12% increase in total restaurant operating weeks, plus the increased comparable restaurant sales. Our expected income tax rate for 2014 should be in the 29% to 30% range, and we continue to expect that diluted shares outstanding for 2014 will likely be in the mid to upper $29 million range. In regards to revenue for next year, I would err on the side of conservatism. We expect our operating weeks to grow around 12%, and this is based on a target of 17 to 19 new restaurants for next year. And we expect our menu pricing to be around 2% for fiscal 2014. However, based on a macro environment, it is difficult to precisely predict guest traffic for next year. And therefore, it's difficult to predict overall comparable restaurant sales. As a management team, we will certainly be striving to achieve at least modestly positive comparable restaurant sales for 2014. And finally, one of our goals is to preserve our 19% to 20% four-wall operating cash flow. While I know we did not achieve that target this quarter, as negative comparable restaurant sales de-leveraged the fixed cost inherent in the restaurant business, I firmly expect us to get back to this level as we continue our national expansion. Q3 is always one of our toughest quarters. It tends to be our quarter with the lowest weekly sales average and also tends to have some of our highest cost due to some utility rates and expiring semiannual commodity contracts, as well as having new restaurant opening costs and related inefficiencies for those new restaurants. However, the foundation we have put in place is strong and getting stronger. While we are not happy with our current sales, taking this time to digest our past initiatives has set us up for new menu introductions later this year and early next year, allowing us to effectively expand sales in a productive and efficient manner going forward. Additionally, spending the time identifying some significant opportunities to reduce costs and operating occupancy costs will only enhance shareholder value over time and allow us to more effectively communicate the BJ's story. Now let me go ahead and turn it over to Greg Trojan. Greg?