Gregory S. Levin
Analyst · Jeff Farmer with Wells Fargo
Thanks, Greg. I'm going to take a couple of minutes while I go through some of the highlights for the first quarter and provide some forward-looking commentary for the rest of fiscal 2013. All such commentary is subject to the risks and uncertainties regarding forward-looking statements that are included in our SEC filings. Additionally, my commentary may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we use in our internal review of the business and that we believe will help provide insight into our ongoing operations. As Greg Trojan mentioned, our revenues increased approximately 13% to $188.6 million from $167.6 million in the prior year's comparable quarter. This increase is due to an approximate 13% increase in operating weeks. Our weekly sales average was basically flat compared to the prior year's comparable quarter, and our comparable restaurant sales were up 0.4%. Although we would certainly like to see more robust comparable restaurant sales in the quarter, we once again outperformed both the Black Box index and the Knapp-Track index for casual dining comparable restaurant sales. Our patterns during the quarter pretty closely followed those reported by both Knapp-Track and Black Box; that is, January's comparable restaurant sales started off positive but turned negative towards the end of the month and remained negative through the first few weeks of February before, in general, turning positive again in March. All of our core markets were positive, except for California, which was slightly negative. There was no specific market or region in California that stood out. In general, higher sales tax and the higher state income tax in California, coupled with higher gasoline prices earlier in the quarter, all of which exceeded what was experienced in other parts of the U.S., may have affected our comparable restaurant sales in that state. Excluding the impact from the Easter weekend holiday shift, all of our day-parts, that is lunch, dinner, mid-afternoon and late night, were all slightly positive. Both the middle of the week and the weekend were also slightly positive and pretty much in line with each other. Our 0.4% comparable sales increase for the first quarter consisted primarily of an approximate 3% benefit from menu pricing, offset by an estimated decrease in guest traffic of around 3% and a net favorable mix and incident rates. In regards to the middle of our P&L, our cost of sales of 24.5% of sales was down about 10 basis points compared to last year's first quarter and, sequentially, was down about 50 basis points from our fourth quarter of 2012. The decrease from last year's first quarter was primarily due to menu pricing and improved kitchen productivity, resulting in a lower theoretical to actual food cost variance, offsetting about 1.5% increase in our commodity basket. The decrease sequentially from the fourth quarter of 2012 is primarily related to the menu pricing we took in February of this year to offset some expected inflationary pressure, as well as some favorable menu mix primarily around some of our seafood offerings, as well as some improved kitchen productivity. Labor during the first quarter was 35% compared to 34.9% in last year's first quarter. Our operators did an outstanding job utilizing the new labor scheduling and productivity system that we implemented during the third quarter of fiscal 2012. As a result, we were able to improve our hourly labor productivity, resulting in a 40-basis-point decrease in hourly labor. The improved hourly labor productivity helped offset increases in our management labor, workers' compensation insurance and food rate in California and Florida. Going forward, I would continue to expect both workers' compensation costs, as well as Florida [ph] unemployment tax rate, impact labor this year. Our operating occupancy costs increased by 80 basis points to 21.5% of sales compared to last year's first quarter. Approximately 50 basis points of this increase was related to the planned additional marketing, including the expanded television testing, and the remaining 30 basis points was due primarily to higher facilities costs and general liability insurance. Our marketing costs in the first quarter were approximately 1.8% of sales compared to 1.3% of sales last year. As Greg Trojan mentioned, the television commercial ran the last 2 weeks of the quarter and covered 28 restaurants in 6 markets. In total, we are on the air for only 56 weeks out of a total of 1,690 weeks during the quarter. The commercial, which are available on our YouTube channel, were focused on the introduction of our hand-tossed pizza and our Party for Two for $19.95 promotion. The initial results have been generally positive and helped drive comp sales in each of the markets not surprisingly, particularly those markets with lower awareness. Although we need to understand the ongoing sales halo effect, we are encouraged by our guests' response to our TV advertising. Going forward, we will focus our TV testing and on messaging and positioning options and add our [ph] media by alternatives, which could make the media more viable for more markets in the future. Our general and administrative expenses for the first quarter were approximately $12.7 million or 6.7% of sales and in line with our internal expectations. Included in the G&A is $839,000 and $772,000 of equity compensation for both 2013 and 2012, respectively, or 0.4% of sales and 0.5% of sales for each year. Depreciation and amortization was approximately $11.5 million and averaged about 6,800 per restaurant week, which is in line with our most recent trends from the fourth quarter of 2012 regarding depreciation and amortization. Restaurant opening expenses were approximately $700,000 during the first quarter of 2013, which was primarily related to the 1 new restaurant that opened during the quarter and some opening expenses for restaurants that will open in the first half of 2013. On average, our pre-opening cost continued to be around $500,000 per restaurant. Our tax rate for the first quarter was approximately 26.2%. This is lower than our expected tax rate of around 29% due to the expiration of some FIN 48 tax reserves due to statute limitations. As a result, we expect our tax rate going forward to be in the 29% range. Before I turn the call back over to Greg Trojan, let me spend a couple of minutes providing some forward-looking commentary for the rest of 2013. All of this commentary is subject to the risks and uncertainties associated with forward-looking statements as discussed in our filings with the SEC. It is still relatively difficult to get a handle on our current sales trends for casual dining. When looking at the first quarter, it definitely appeared that the increase in the payroll tax and the delay in the tax refund had a major impact on February's numbers. While we and the industry definitely saw improvement in comparable restaurant sales in March, it is still challenging to discern how much of that improvement was due to an earlier spring break than in the prior year as opposed to changes in the macro economy or the macro environment. For the first few weeks of April, our comparable restaurant sales are positive in the mid-2% range. However, this includes the favorable impact of the Easter holiday shift in which the Easter weekend was in the first quarter this year as opposed to the second quarter last year. If we exclude the benefit we received by the Easter holiday shift, our comparable restaurant sales appear to be trending around a positive 1% or so. For those of you building your models, I would therefore err on the side of conservatism and build your models based more on our current comparable restaurant sales trends, excluding the Easter holiday shift. We currently expect menu pricing to be in the low- to mid-2% range for both the second quarter and the third quarter of this year. We are rolling out a new menu in a couple of weeks featuring a couple of new and light entrées, and we will be introducing a co-branded LTO later this summer. However, given the current uncertain macro environment, coupled with the better-than-expected commodity environment, we are not planning any additional menu pricing on this new menu. As we have said before, our pricing is the last lever we pull to drive sales. Our goal is to drive sales by offering a higher-quality, more differentiated dining experience in a more contemporary facility, executed with pure hospitality and gold-standard service. We will not try and price our way to success. Our pricing strategy is about preserving our unit economics, and any pricing we take is considered only after contemplating the success of our productivity and sales building initiative on our 4-wall margins. For the second quarter, I would expect around 1,720 restaurant week as we planned to open 4 new restaurants in the quarter, as Greg Lynds mentioned. In the first quarter, our commodity basket only increased about 1.5% from last year. However, we are expecting our commodities to increase in the low- to mid-2% range for the second quarter and the rest of this year based on our latest forecast from our supply chain team. Therefore, I'd expected cost of sales to be in the upper 24% range for the rest of this year. I'd expect total labor in the second quarter to be in the mid-34% range as higher workers' compensation expense and food and taxes will offset some of the benefits we are seeing from our new labor scheduling and productivity system. Obviously, this percentage is significantly influenced by comparable sales increases or decreases. I am anticipating operating and occupancy cost as a percent of sales to be in the low- to mid-21% range for the second quarter. This is based on our planned marketing spend of approximately 1.6% to 1.7% of sales for Q2. Our absolute G&A dollars spend in Q2 should be around the $13 million range, and that is inclusive of equity compensation. I do want to remind everyone, our G&A can vary from quarter-to-quarter due to the number of managers in our advanced manager training program, travel and other related costs due to the timing of openings of new restaurants and other factors. As I've already mentioned, we currently expect restaurant opening cost to be around $500,000 per restaurant. However, we will incur pre-opening noncash rent as much as 5 or 6 months before a restaurant opens, and therefore, pre-opening cost for any quarter may not be indicative of the number of restaurants that opened in that quarter. I anticipate opening 4 restaurants in the second quarter, plus, we plan on opening 3 restaurants in early July. Therefore, I would probably expect pre-opening to be similar in that $2.3 million to $2.7 million range for the second quarter. We currently anticipate our income tax rate for the remainder of 2013 to be around 29% and our diluted shares outstanding to be around $29 million. In regards to our overall liquidity, we ended the first quarter with a little over $48 million of cash and investments. Our line of credit is for $75 million and does not expire until January 2007. Our total gross capital expenditures for the first quarter of 2013 was approximately $22 million. We continue to expect our gross capital expenditures for this year to be around $117 million, and we plan to receive TI allowances and proceeds from sale-leasebacks in the $15 million range. Therefore, our planned net CapEx is currently expected to be in the $100 million range and will be roughly equivalent to our net CapEx spend last year. We currently expect to fund our expansion and capital expenditures from our cash and investments on our balance sheet, our cash flow from operations and from the proceeds from our tenant improvement allowances and sale-leaseback transactions. Now I'm going to go ahead and turn the call over to Greg Trojan for some closing remarks. Greg?