Gregory S. Levin
Analyst · Lazard Capital Markets
Thanks, Greg. Before I begin, I just want to let everybody know on the call that I've been fighting a cough here. So I'm going to do my best to get through the formal remarks without coughing too many times into the telephone, I guess. So let me go ahead and get started here, I'm going to take a couple of minutes to go through some of the highlights for the fourth quarter and provide some forward-looking commentary for fiscal 2013. All such commentary is subject to the risks and uncertainties regarding forward-looking statements that are included in our SEC filings. Additionally, my commentary may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we use in our internal review of the business and that we believe will help provide insights into our ongoing operation. Before we begin, I do want to remind investors that last year's fourth quarter included one additional operating week. This additional operating week contributed $13.9 million in sales and, based on estimates, approximately $0.06 in net income per diluted share. Additionally, as we mentioned, our press release today, excluding the nonrecurring cost of our CEO transition and the sales tax accrual, as well as the gain on our invested settlement, our results came in as we have internally expected during the quarter. Our revenues increased approximately 8% to approximately $184.8 million from $171.8 million in the prior year's comparable quarter. This increase is due to an approximate 4.8% or 5% increase in operating week and an approximate 2.7% increase in average weekly sales. After adjusting for the extra operating week from last year, our revenues increased approximately 17% due to our continued double digit increases in operating weeks and our solid increases in comparable restaurant sales. Comparable sales for each month of the quarter were positive. However, as we've mentioned before, there was a lot of choppiness in the quarter. What we noticed in the quarter and it appears to be continuing this year is, consumers need a catalyst or an event to dine out. For instance, the first 3 weeks of December were generally very slow. However, as the Christmas and New Year's holiday became closer, and just began finishing up the last minute shopping and gathering with friends and family, we saw a marked acceleration of sales. This same sales pattern appears to be continuing into 2013, which I will comment on shortly. From a geographic standpoint, in regards to comparable restaurant sales, there was no specific area that stood out. All dayparts, lunch, mid afternoon, dinner and late night were positive during the quarter. However, the middle of the week, that is a Monday through Thursday daypart, was softer than the weekends. Our 3% comparable sales increase for the fourth quarter consisted primarily of an approximate 3% in benefits from menu pricing and an approximate 0.9% decreased in estimated guest traffic, offset by favorable mix and incident rates trend. In our view, maintaining 99% of our guest traffic in our comparable restaurant sales base was really a solid achievement for the fourth quarter in light of all the headwinds we faced, as well as the headwinds faced by the Casual Dining industry. The positive menu mix as a result of an increase in our Steak & Seafood Entrée rates and our 2 Can Dine promotion. All of these items have the intended effects of increasing our average check, slightly reducing our gross margin percentage and, most importantly, driving more dollars to restaurant level cash flow. In regards to the middle of our P&L, our cost of sales of 25% of sales was up about 70 basis points compared to last year and, sequentially, was up about 30 basis points. The increase in cost of sales compared to last year and the third quarter is primarily due to changes in the menu mix that I just mentioned. As most of our commodity pressures have been offset by menu pricing and our restaurant operators continue to effectively manage waste via theoretical food cost system. Labor during the fourth quarter was 34.3% compared to 34.9% in last year's fourth quarter. The decrease in labor was primarily due to lower restaurant incentive compensation, payroll taxes and workers' compensation, offset by slightly higher hourly labor. In regards to hourly labor, we continue to see higher kitchen wages and some kitchen inefficiencies related to the complexity of our menu. However, Wayne and his operations team continue to work through our productivity metrics, and we have seen some solid improvement over the last 3 months of the year compared to where we were earlier in 2012. Our operating and occupancy cost increased by about 140 basis points to 21.7% of sales compared to last year's fourth quarter. Our fourth quarter of 2011 operating occupancy cost benefited the most from the extra sales week last year. In fact, I mentioned on last year's fourth quarter call that due to the fixed and semi fixed nature of these operating and occupancy cost that the extra sales week benefited this category by approximately 90 basis points last year. Therefore, adjusting for the effect of the extra week from last year, our operating and occupancy cost increased about 50 basis points compared to last year. This increase was primarily due to higher marketing cost and higher insurance costs for general liability insurance. Our general and administrative expenses for the fourth quarter were approximately $12.8 million or 6.9% of sales. Included in the G&A is $962,000 and $833,000 of equity compensation for both 2012 and 2011, respectively, or 0.5% of sales for both years. As we mentioned in our press release today, we incurred approximately $800,000 of CEO transition cost that were included in G&A for the fourth quarter of 2012. Excluding the CEO transition costs, our G&A would have been around $12 million and that includes equity compensation or approximately 6.5% of sales compared to 6.3% of sales last year. Our restaurant opening expense we're approximately $2.4 million during the fourth quarter of 2012, which is primarily related to the 5 restaurants we opened during the quarter. Plus some opening expenses for restaurants that will open in the first half of 2013. On average our preopening cost continue to be around $500,000 per restaurant. As we mentioned in our press release today, we also accrued $600,000 for potential sales tax audit settlement in the state of California. This is an estimated settlement at this point and is subject to final negotiations with the state. We also recorded a pretax gain of approximately $500,000 pursuant to the settlement agreement with our former broker-dealer related to the liquidation of our auction rate securities portfolio back in December of 2009. Under the terms of that settlement agreement, we were entitled to potential future recoveries based on the performance of the securities through December 2012. We are pleased to report that the company recovered 100 cents on the dollar on that portfolio. Our tax rate for the fourth quarter was approximately 20% as we are able to utilize more FICA tax tip credits in our full year tax provision than we originally estimated. As a result, our full year effective tax rate for 2012 was about 26.4%. In regards to our liquidity, we ended the year with a little over $40 million of cash and investments. A line of credit is for $75 million and does not expire until June -- until January 2017. Our total gross capital expenditures for 2012 was approximately $109 million. We received approximately $8 million in tender approval allowances and proceeds from the sale-leaseback of one of our restaurants this year. Before I turn the call back over to Greg Trojan, let me spend a couple of minutes providing some forward-looking commentary for 2013. All of this commentary is subject to the risks and uncertainties associated with the forward-looking statements as discussed in our filings with the SEC. As we enter 2013, consumers are already gearing with the pressures of a slow economy, the U.S. economy shrank at about 0.1% annual rate in the December quarter and the unemployment rate rose approximately 0.1 percentage point to 7.9% in January. The conference board's measure of consumer confidence declined in January to its lowest level since November 2011. And on top of that, consumers now face higher payroll taxes and delayed tax refunds in addition to higher gasoline taxes. Clearly, consumers have less discretionary income to spend on restaurant occasions right now and likely for the foreseeable future. We have our comments from other restaurant operators and some retailers as to the softening sales trends so far this quarter and our sales trends are also currently softer than what we would like. For the first 7 weeks of the first fiscal quarter of 2013, our comparable restaurant sales are negative, approximately 0.5% compared to a positive 4% for the same period last year. What we have noticed, as I mentioned earlier, is that consumers have generally pulled back on the middle of the week dine out occasion. In fact, the first quarter feels a lot like 2008, in which the middle of the week has become soft with weekends and special events holding up relatively well. For example, we had a very successful Valentine's Day and Presidents' Day weekend. I believe right now consumers are still trying to adjust to having less money in their pocket due to the payroll tax increase and other changes to the tax regulations including delays in tax refunds. As I mentioned this is causing them to hold back on their everyday dining out occasion and may last for the first couple of quarters until consumers adjust to this new reality. In light of the current slow sales environment, similar to what we did back in 2008, we have slightly increased our marketing spend and promotional executions for the remainder of the quarter in order to revise for a prudent competitive response. Additionally, because of the pressure on the consumer, we're going to be very prudent on menu pricing this year. Our menu pricing strategy this year will be focused on everyday affordability within the entire menu. Over the last couple of years, we have worked more in the barbels of the menu with our Snacks & Small Bites and our Signature Entrées and more recently our Seafood & Steaks. I would therefore, expect our total menu pricing for 2013 to be in the low 2% range. Specifically, for Q1, I am anticipating menu pricing of about 3% and then mid to low 2% range in the second and third quarters. For the first quarter, I would expect 1,690 restaurant weeks as we expect our first restaurant of 2013 to open right at the end of the quarter. Even though we will be increasing our marketing and promotional activity during the first quarter, we cannot predict whether or not the first 7 weeks of the quarter will be indicative of the entire quarter. We therefore, encourage investors and analysts to be conservative in setting their expectations on this key metric particularly in this challenging and choppy operating environment. In regards to cost of sales for 2013, we are currently expecting our market commodity basket to be up around 2.5% to 3% for the full year. We are currently locked in about 40% of our commodities for the entire year. In the first quarter, we'll be promoting our Seafood Celebration around the Lent season and we also just recently began promoting our 2 can dine for $14.95 lunch special. As a result, I'm anticipating that these promotions will continue to have an effect on our overall menu mix, resulting in a little bit higher cost of sales, probably somewhere in the 25% range, much like this past fourth quarter. In regards to labor, as in the past, the first quarter of each year is our highest labor cost as a percent of sale, primarily due to higher payroll taxes and benefits. In Q1 of 2011 and 2012, labor as a percent of sales was 34.8% and 34.9%, respectively, despite the fact that in Q1 of 2011 and 2012, our comparable restaurant sales were a positive 7.8% and a positive 3.3% respectively, which is greater than our current comparable restaurant sales trend to date in Q1. So for the first quarter this year, I expect total labor to be in the range of 35%. Obviously, this percentage is significantly influenced by comparable sale increases or decreases. I expect our operating occupancy cost as a percent of sales to be in the mid- to upper 21% range for the first quarter. This is based in our planned marketing spend of around 1.8% of sales in Q1 as opposed to about 1.3% of sales in last year's first quarter. For all of fiscal 2013, we expect our marketing spend to be around 1.6% of sales with is pretty consistent with 2012. However, Q1 and Q4, are planned to be heavier marketing spend quarters at the current time. Specifically in Q1, we plan on expanding our TV test to 6 small markets, which will cover approximately 28 restaurants in addition to our normal digital and print media event. I want to remind everyone that this is just a continuation of our television test based on the successful results we have seen specifically in low-awareness markets like San Antonio. At this time, we have not committed to a sustained television advertising strategy. We are discontinuing to increase our learning here as to the ability of TV to drive increased awareness and trial for the BJ's concept. I'm expecting our absolute G&A dollars spend this year to increase about 16% to around $48 million in total. However, G&A can vary from quarter-to-quarter due to the number of managers in our advanced management training program, travel and other related costs due to the timing of openings of new restaurants and other factors. As I've already mentioned, we currently expect restaurant opening cost to be about 500,000 per restaurant. However, we'll incur preopening noncash trends as much as 5 or 6 months before a restaurant opens. And therefore, preopening costs for any quarter may not be indicative of a number of restaurants that opened in that quarter. I anticipate opening cost to be in the 700,000 to $1 million range in the first quarter. We currently anticipated our income tax rate for 2013 to be around 28% and our diluted shares outstanding to be around $29 million. Our CapEx budget for 2013 contemplates opening as many as 17 new restaurants, including the closing and relocation of one of our older, smaller-format [indiscernible] restaurants in Eugene, Oregon as Greg Lynds mentioned. In addition, we will continue to invest in our core restaurants to make sure our restaurants remain in a light new and first-class manner and remain relevant with our guest. It's really a challenging operating environment where casual dining is used more as a part of the enjoyment at the evening, as opposed to just pop-in dining. It's extremely important that we continue to raise the bar to provide a higher-quality, more differentiated dining experience for our guests. Therefore, our total gross CapEx before expected tenant approval allowances and sale-leaseback proceeds is expected to be approximately $115 million to $120 million, and increase the purchase of the underlying land for 2 of our expected 2013 restaurants. As we mentioned in the past, our expansion strategy is predicated on leasing our restaurant locations. However, from time to time, we may decide to purchase the underlying land for a new restaurant that is the only way to secure a highly desirable site. In these cases, we generally will sell the underlying land once the restaurant is open. In 2013, we expect to receive proceeds from tenant allowances and sale-leaseback transactions of approximately $15 million to $20 million, so our plan net CapEx is currently expected to be in $100 million range, and will be roughly equivalent to our net CapEx spend this last year. We currently expect to fund our expansion and capital expenditures from our cash and investments on our balance sheet, our cash flow from operations and from the proceeds from our tenant-approved [ph] allowances and sale-leaseback transactions. And finally, for those of you building your models based on the industry information to date, it appears that 2013 will likely be a net or tough year for guest traffic in general for the Casual Dining industry. However, the opportunity for BJ's is to continue to take market share as strong as it's ever been. This is a company that has only 130 restaurants opened as of today. The value in this business is about the opportunity to go from 130 restaurants to 425 restaurants. The sales volumes of our new restaurants are excellent and our concept is proving to work in locations from Miami to Gainesville, Florida to Houston to Tyler, Texas. Therefore, while the macro environment will remain challenging and this may create challenges in the short term, we'll continue to prudently expand the BJ's concept at a rate that, when compared to our peers, delivers quality execution and quality returns to our investors over the long run. Therefore, our expectation for the next few years continue to grow our total operating weeks in the 11% to 12% range, and assuming a more normalized consumer discretionary spending environment at some future point, for us to drive annual comparable restaurant sales increases in the 2% to 3% range. We do expect to gradually leverage our G&A cost over time and thereby gradually improve our consolidated operating margin over the long term. Therefore, when you put it all together and assuming no material changes in the current operating environment as it impacts consumer confidence and discretionary spending, we continue to believe we have a good opportunity to drive revenue growth in the mid-teen range and achieve some additional operating leverage to help drive our overall earnings growth over the long run. Now I'm going to turn the call over to Greg Trojan for some closing remarks. Greg?