Robert Eddy
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Before I begin, I’d also like to take a moment to thank our team members for their incredible dedication and hard work during these challenging times.Our business is well situated to exceed expectations in an emergency such as the coronavirus pandemic that we all face. We are a one-stop shop capable of extremely high volumes, while providing great value to our members. COVID-19 has heightened demand for our products and services and our team members managed well through this environment, embracing their important role in serving our communities. As a result, our performance for the first quarter was extremely strong.Net sales for the quarter were $3.7 billion. Merchandise comp sales, which exclude gasoline, increased by 27%, significantly exceeding our expectations and were driven equally by ticket and traffic.Our digitally-enabled sales grew by approximately 350% and drove about 5 full percentage points of our 27% merchandise comp. About three quarters of the Q1 growth in digitally-enabled sales was driven by same-day delivery and buy online, pick up in-club or BOPIC.As we noted in the past, we have an economic advantage here compared to others. We operate in a limited SKU warehouse environment with significantly higher average tickets, which allows us to be much more efficient. As a reminder, BOPIC sales tend to skew towards higher ticket items. And through our partnership with Instacart, a same-day delivery sale has the same margins as a sale in our clubs.Before I turn to our divisional comps, let me give you a little color on our merchandise comp sales cadence for the quarter. For the first three weeks of February, comp sales were in line with our plan. In the fourth week of February, comps accelerated to the low-teens level. This acceleration continued to ramp in March, where we saw comp growth north of 40% for the month.March provides the three highest sales days in our company’s history. April’s merchandise comp was 23%, driven by continued demand and increased EBT and stimulus payments. Importantly, that strong April comp number was not adjusted for the negative impact of being closed on Easter Sunday this year.Let’s now turn to our comps by business. Beginning with this quarter, we have decided to revise our divisional reporting slightly. Going forward, we will be reporting comps for two divisions. First, grocery, which includes perishables, edible and non-edible grocery. The second division will be general merchandise and services, which will include general merchandise and our service businesses such as optical and cell phones.Grocery saw incredibly robust comp sales of 33%. Perishables, edible grocery and non-edible grocery all saw comp sales north of 30%. We saw very strong growth rates in all the categories you would expect, paper products, cleaning essentials, fresh meat, frozen, dairy, fresh produce, packaged goods and beverages.And as Lee noted, the team worked hard on ensuring we remained in stock by working with alternative distributors to continue to provide our members with these essentials. Overall, we feel great about our position in the grocery business as we exit the quarter.Our general merchandise and services division saw a decline of approximately 3%, as sales of apparel decreased and we turned off our services businesses. Our apparel business drove the bulk of that decline. We saw healthy growth in other categories, including TVs and other consumer electronics, small appliances and recreational products.Membership fee income, or MFI, grew by 8.4% during the first quarter to $80 million. As Lee noted, we saw a significant increase in new members, which will bode well for us in the future. As you know, membership fee income is a lagging indicator of the health of the membership, given that we amortize the fees into the future.Cash MFI, which is an unamortized look at the cash that came in the door, presents a more current view. Cash MFI for the quarter was up 16%, driven by 40% growth in new member acquisition over last year’s first quarter. This growth in new members should benefit us for years to come.In addition, despite these gains in the number of new members, we maintained our higher tier penetration at 28% and more than 65% of our members are now enrolled in our Easy Renewal Program. Membership is at the heart of what we do. And as we attract and retain more members, we position ourselves for growth and success.Let’s move now to our gross margins. Excluding the gasoline business, our merchandise gross margin rate declined by approximately 30 basis points over last year. Continued execution of CPI initiatives, as well as improved shrink and salvage rates provided approximately 10 basis points in rate tailwinds.We experienced approximately 40 basis points of headwinds from three areas. First, markdowns we took on apparel inventory were worth approximately 20 basis points; next, incremental distribution expenses associated with COVID-19 were worth approximately 10 basis points; lastly, as we experienced significant inflation in some commodities, like eggs, we invested meaningfully in price in order to provide outstanding value to our members. That investment was worth about 10 basis points.Both prices and demand for gasoline decreased during the quarter, driving our sales of gasoline lower. However, we continue to grow market share meaningfully. Offsetting the decline in sales, the dislocation in the gasoline market provided robust margins. The net of all that was a very profitable gasoline business during the quarter. We estimate the benefit of unusual gasoline gross margin in the first quarter to be approximately $30 million.SG&A expenses were $590 million during the first quarter, compared to $501 million in the prior year. Our SG&A expense included approximately $62 million of total costs associated with COVID-19. Let me break that total down for you into three main buckets: $51 million was invested in team member wages and bonuses, $9 million in safety and protective equipment, and $2 million in other operational costs such as security.Please note that these costs have not been adjusted out in the calculation of our adjusted EBITDA metric. In spite of these additional costs, we leveraged SG&A by approximately 50 basis points, enabling great flow-through to earnings.Interest expense decreased to $22 million from $28 million a year ago. The decrease was driven by continued delevering and the repricing of our first lien term loan, which we completed during this past January.For the quarter, we recorded an income tax expense of $26 million, compared to $7 million in the prior-year period. The variance between our normalized tax rate of 27% and this quarter’s reported rate of 21% was driven primarily by $4.5 million of windfall tax benefit from stock options exercised.Net income in the first quarter was $96 million, or $0.69 per share. This incredible performance was 165% greater than last year’s first quarter on a per share basis. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 56% to $194 million, reflecting the considerable sales beat, offset by investments directly in our team members and in their continued safety.Moving now to the balance sheet. Our AP to inventory ratio was approximately 97%. We spun our inventory considerably quicker than last year, providing strong working capital benefits. We ended the quarter with approximately 5% less inventory than at our last quarter-end.Typically, our first quarter is not particularly cash generative. As an example, last year’s first quarter provided $8 million in free cash flow. This quarter was much different from that perspective. As a result of our outsized performance and working capital benefits, we generated record free cash flow of $435 million for the quarter. No other metric highlights the strength of our business, our results and the accomplishment of our team better than this one.In addition, while we clearly did not have a need to participate in any of the programs provided under the CARES Act, we had a small cash flow benefit from the deferral of payroll taxes this quarter.Early in the quarter, pre-COVID, we began executing the first trades in our stock buyback program. When the crisis began to show in the markets, we quickly pivoted to a focus on liquidity. We stopped the buybacks, drew on our ABL and aggressively managed our cash.As it became clear that our business was strong and the markets began to function more normally, we fully paid down the revolving portion of our ABL and allowed cash to build on the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $133 million in cash balances, and a funded net debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio of 1.9 times.Let’s turn to our outlook. Let me start by saying that the current landscape has so many more external variables to track. The evolution of the public health crisis, government interventions and stimulus, consumer behavior and unemployment levels will have tremendous effects on the entire economy, including our business.Given the uncertainty and unprecedented nature of today’s environment, it is extremely difficult for us to predict how the year will play out. For this reason, we have made the decision to speak to you qualitatively about the trends that we are seeing currently and expecting in the near future rather than updating guidance.We believe that our business is strong, healthy and poised for growth. The next few weeks and months may be hard to predict, but the capabilities that we have built and our ability to lean into growth positions us well for the future.It’s our current expectation that something like the current consumer behavior persists for a while. As a result, we expect to see strong merchandise comp growth. We anticipate operating in a recessionary environment, even as activity in our geographical footprint begins to resume.Historically, our business has comped very well during recessionary environments, where value becomes even more important. We expect government stimulus to continue. And when you overlay a much higher need or desire to eat at home, driven by government regulation, or just the basic human desire to stay safe, the expectations for higher comps in our business crystallize.As we noted earlier, our Q1 exit rate on merchandise comp was north of 20% and May has not slowed. Well, I wouldn’t say that we should expect that comp rate for the balance of the year, I do think that our previous annual guidance of low-single digit comps is considerably low.Following that line of thinking, we also expect to continue to see strong growth from a membership perspective. We believe that new members will be easier to acquire in this environment, and we will invest considerably into membership acquisition and analytics. Further, the new members that joined this past quarter will result in benefits for this year and beyond.Given the fluidity of the environment, it’s difficult for us to predict where merchandise margins will land throughout the year. In addition to the benefit of strong revenues, our CPI process will provide further gains, and we expect continued private label expansion. Potential negative impact rates include product mix, near-term inflationary pressures on certain perishable categories, the timing of reopening our service businesses, and the contribution from our apparel business.We feel good about our general merchandise business as it has returned to positive comps in May. It’s also difficult to predict what will happen in the gasoline business. We do expect gallon sales to recover as the economy begins to reopen. We also expect to see margins normalize and possibly contract below planned levels. This is often the case in periods following those with outsized margins like we saw in Q1.Let me touch on SG&A expenses. As we think about the go-forward run rate of COVID-19 expenses in Q2, we expect to incur approximately $20 million to $25 million of incremental costs. We will continue to manage the level of expenses with our prioritization on the health and safety of our team members, and making sure we’re providing the high level of service that our members expect.As we mentioned earlier, we are on track to deliver $40 million of savings from Project Momentum this year. All savings will be reinvested back in the business, as previously noted.Lastly, we will spend into the beat in order to continue to invest in our business with a desire to take Q1’s results and turn them into a multi-year growth phase for our company. Despite these costs and uncertainties, we expect to achieve profitability for the year that significantly outpaces the high-end of the growth range of our original long-term algorithm.It’s important to note that we feel extremely confident in our liquidity and ability to prudently manage capital in this environment. One only needs to look at our first quarter results to understand that our business generates strong cash flows, especially when we turn our inventories at an accelerated rate.In fact, this accelerated rate resulting in working capital benefits that drove a significant portion of Q1 free cash flow performance. We do not expect this benefit to fully recur in Q2. Further, as we rebuild our inventory balance, some of the Q1 working capital benefits may reverse.Lastly, we expect our full-year cash flows to benefit from tax deferrals provided by the CARES Act in the amount of approximately $30 million. We will be opportunistic from a capital allocation perspective and adapt to our environment.As I said earlier, we have met our medium-term leverage target. Given our robust cash flow generation, we are in a strong position that allows us to be aggressive in investing behind business growth, in addition to considering capital returns to shareholders.In conclusion, our business is more relevant than ever before. Consumer behavior trends are in our favor. And the capabilities we have built over the last four years enable us to thrive in today’s environment.Our comp trends are strong, and our member growth is heartening as we look toward a bright future. We go forward from here with a team that meets the challenge everyday to serve our members and take advantage of this opportunity to build our business for the long-term.Finally, our hearts go out to all of those affected by the pandemic. And we offer our thanks to our team members for their outstanding work during these challenging times.Now, I’ll turn the call back over to the operator to begin the Q&A session.