Lawson Whiting
Analyst · Barclays. Ms. Lieberman, your line is open
We talked about that a little bit. I mean, okay. Look, we don't have a lot of data yet on the holidays. So, we're obviously going to have to see. I think if you step back and look at total distilled spirits, now I'm going to talk about the US here for a second, then we can go to the rest of the world. But look, let's even back up a little more than that. Go back 18 months ago, I know many of you know this story, but I think it's important to reiterate what we think has been driving a lot of the trends over the last 18 months. So we had said, Lauren, it was actually in Boston with you at your conference of, when was that, 15, 16 months ago, the US market was still running in that [5% or 6%] (ph) range. So, an elevated number, which was true for the first half of '23 and then '22, even in '21. So, we've been dealing with that elevated level for quite some time. And between -- that time between sort of Labor Day and Christmas of last year, the market truly fell off a cliff and caught everyone by surprise. And we've been making the argument now for, I don't know, ever since then really that it was driven by economics and inflation and a consumer who has been pinched. And I think that's proven itself out across a whole lot of different consumer categories really over the last year. And to be honest, it's not really getting a lot better. So we are relatively muted in our expectations for Christmas this year. If you look at TDS in the US, as I said, it went from the [6%] (ph) range in the summer of '23 to about zero at Christmas and it's been running negative all year. If you want to find -- if you're looking for green shoots or some -- something positive on a consumer takeaway perspective, the NABCA data is getting better. And that consumer takeaway, particularly for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, I would say that is one of the more positive things we're looking at right now is over the last six months, those numbers have improved. They're not improving in Nielsen, and they're still pretty kind of ugly, sort of down low single digits for sure. So we still are -- we'll make and continue to make the argument that it is driven by a consumer pinched and that will eventually work itself out. But I would say we're relatively cautious on what this Christmas is going to look like.