Lawson Whiting
Analyst · Andrea Teixeira of JPMorgan. Your line is now open
Yes, let me add on a little bit because obviously, inventory levels, particularly at the consumer level, have been jumping around and we spent a lot of time last quarter talking about that. And I know a number of you wrote about it. But where we are today, I think, is interesting. So, and I'm going to talk -- this is about the U.S. first, and then we can go down the Europe path if you want to. But so total still spirits in the U.S. Right now, Nielsen and NABCA are both flat essentially. Last, this time last year, Nielsen was at plus 5.7. So it has gone from 5.7. It got to 0. It felt like overnight last fall and contributed to what was the very weak Christmas that the industry and Brown-Forman had last year. But it's still interesting how quickly it fell off. In our last call, we talked a lot about why, and we went through the big 3 of the cannabis, the GLP-1s and Gen Z and why we feel those are not the key drivers that these are not structural changes, but it really comes down to consumer spending and consumer inventories. And we still believe those are the two biggest factors that have impacted what has happened over the last year. Now as far as Brown-Forman takeaway in the U.S., I do think it's -- there's kind of there's so many unusual things in this quarter. But one of them is Nielsen and NABCA, I said they're flat in the industry. Brown-Forman is essentially flat to down 1 in NABCA, but Nielsen looks much worse, more like down mid-single digits. That -- the primary reason for that is the launch of Jack & Coke last year in Q1. So when we launched Jack & Coke in the U.S., it was a huge chain launch, control states, which would have been the NABCA obviously, was much slower. And so you've got this big push that happened right at the beginning of Q1 with Jack & Coke, and that factor alone is about half the difference, that five point difference between Nielsen, half of it is just Jack & Coke. The other half, which is much more positive and interesting is in the NABCA data, which captures on premise. The other half of that delta is driven by Woodford and Old Forester in the on premise, which, from honest, I didn't expect to see that, but both Woodford and Old Forester are really having strong runs in the on premise right now, well above sort of total distilled spirits in the on premise, which is pretty weak. It's down between 1 and 2. So we are bucking the trend there and with two of our strongest brands that are actually moving the needle and making a difference.