Earnings Labs

BF.B (BF.B)

Q1 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 29, 2024

$24.76

-10.69%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.33%

1 Week

-0.66%

1 Month

+4.23%

vs S&P

+2.53%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Brown-Forman Corporation First Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I will now hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Sue Perram, Vice President, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Sue Perram

Analyst

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I would like to thank each of you for joining us today for Brown-Forman’s first quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings call. Joining me today are Lawson Whiting, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Leanne Cunningham, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This morning’s conference call contains forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. Numerous risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or projected in these statements. Many of the factors that will determine future results are beyond the company’s ability to control or predict. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, and except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update any of these statements whether due to new information, future events or otherwise. This morning, we issued a press release containing our results for the first quarter fiscal year 2025, in addition to posting presentation materials that Lawson and Leanne will walk through momentarily. Both the release and the presentation can be found on our website under the section titled Investors, Events and Presentations. In the press release, we have listed a number of the risk factors you should consider in conjunction with our forward-looking statements. Other significant risk factors are described in our Form 10-K and Form 10-Q reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. These measures, a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and the reasons management believes they provide useful information to investors regarding the company’s financial condition and results of operations are contained in the press release and investor presentation. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Lawson.

Lawson Whiting

Analyst · Andrea Teixeira of JPMorgan. Your line is now open

Thank you, Sue, and good morning, everyone. It’s a pleasure to speak to you today about Brown-Forman’s first quarter fiscal 2025 results. In June, we shared our outlook for fiscal 2025 with the expectation that it would be a year of two halves. As you recall, we anticipated the second half of our fiscal year would be stronger than our first half on a year-over-year basis as in the first half we are comparing against strong shipments in a few emerging markets related to the replishnment of inventory and also lapping stronger shipments that occurred to prior planned price increases. The first quarter results we are sharing with you today are in line with our expectations and we are confident and reaffirming our full year growth outlook for fiscal 2025. As we move into the details of the quarter, I’ll provide an overview of the topline from a brand perspective and share a few insights on gross profit and margin. Then I'll turn it over to Leanne, who will share additional insights on our geographic performance as well as other financial highlights. Our fiscal 2025 reported net sales declined 8%, with organic net sales decreasing 4% after adjusting for the divestitures of Finlandia and Sonoma-Cutrer in the prior fiscal year, the negative effect of foreign exchange, and a change in how we manage our Jack Daniel's Country Cocktail business with Pabst Brewing Company. We haven't talked about Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails for a while, so let me take a few moments to explain that last point. As you may recall, in fiscal 2021, we entered into a partnership with the Pabst Brewing Company for the supply, sales, and distribution of Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails in the United States. At that time, Brown Pharma continued to produce certain formats of this…

Leanne Cunningham

Analyst · UBS. Your line is now open

Thank you Lawson and good morning everyone. As Lawson mentioned, I will provide additional details on our geographic performance, other financial highlights, as well as our fiscal 2025 outlook. From a geographic perspective, organic net sales for our developed international markets collectively declined 6% in the first quarter as growth in Japan was more than offset by declines in the United Kingdom and Germany. As expected, Japan returned to growth following our route to consumer change to own distribution on April 1, 2024. We are now recognizing the benefits of owning our distribution, including the execution of our pricing strategy. We are very pleased with the transition and want to thank all of our dedicated team members for their contribution to this success. For the U.K. and Germany, lower volumes of Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey had the largest impact on performance. In the U.K. the results of this quarter compared against higher volumes in the year ago period related to purchases ahead of the excess tax increase. And in Germany, annual pricing negotiations lasted longer than is typical but have now been completed as of the end of June. In the United States, organic net sales decreased 4% as lower volumes of Jack Daniel’s Tennessee whiskey were partly offset by growth of Woodford Reserve and Old Forester, with both of these brands having takeaway trends that are outperforming the American whiskey category. As Lawson has already highlighted the drivers of these brands in his remarks, I will provide a few additional comments on the inventory and consumer environment. Just a quick reminder, from our June call distributor inventory levels were largely at normal levels throughout fiscal 2024, with movement to the low end or just below the normal range in our fourth quarter. Consistent with our expectations, distributors are continuing…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Peter Grom of UBS. Your line is now open.

Peter Grom

Analyst · UBS. Your line is now open

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. So you both mentioned, and you guys touched on it in the release that 1Q was in line with your expectations. But just in the context of a challenging start to the year, organic sales down 4%, can you maybe just speak to the confidence or visibility you have in achieving the full year target? I totally understand the comparisons get easier and you always anticipate growth being stronger in the second half. But just any thoughts on kind of just the key building blocks maybe from a category perspective or whatnot. And then just Leanne, you mentioned 2Q growth will be more aligned with category trends, at least in the data that we can see, they still seem pretty challenged. So is the expectation you would still expect organic sales to be down in the second quarter with a return to growth in the second half? Or am I -- or should we expect maybe better performance in the second half versus maybe what I just outlined? Thanks.

Leanne Cunningham

Analyst · UBS. Your line is now open

All right. Great. Thanks, Peter. Again, I'll just start with reiterate a few things. This -- we do expect this to be the year of two halves. We do expect to see sequential improvement through the rest of the fiscal year. Our first quarter results were as expected. The second quarter, as you said, we mentioned we do believe they more closely reflect the total distilled spirits and where they are. That's more from -- if you look at the U.S. trends, that's kind of where we are. And for the second half, we're going to benefit from the full year impact that Gin Mare and Diplomático. Importantly, a few other things, we will begin to compare against the softening of the total distilled spirits in the year ago period, which was significant in our second half last year. Our cost from a cost perspective we will continue to move through higher cost inventory early in the year. That's largely related to our Tequila business, as our cost of agave is actually falling faster than we can move through our inventory, but we'll get to that benefit. And then I think we have to remind ourselves that there's some absence of some unusual onetime items, which for F 2024 would have been the negative impact of the transition of Jack and Cola out of our system into the Coca-Cola system in the U.K., lapping the impact of transitioning of Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails production as well as in F 2025, it's about the return of our organic growth in Japan with our own distribution and also lapping some other emerging international markets where -- such as the UAE, now that they've got their inventories at more normal levels. And in the year-to-go period, as we look at our innovation pipeline, the impact that would have. I think it's important to note that -- and we were in potential about saying we believe our growth will come from international markets. And when we look at how we're thinking about that, all of them are below what we would consider our long-term growth algorithm.

Peter Grom

Analyst · UBS. Your line is now open

Great. Thank you so much. I’ll pass it on.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Andrea Teixeira of JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Andrea Teixeira

Analyst · Andrea Teixeira of JPMorgan. Your line is now open

Thank you operator, and good morning everyone. I just want to follow up in terms of like the cadence and how the inventory levels have been flowing through. I guess you mentioned on the press release and now also the fact that some of your wholesalers have been more cautious in keeping inventory levels low, what are you seeing on the trade? And also what are you seeing from an on premise and off premise perspective, right? So part of the inventory buildup is also on the pantry. So can you talk about how you felt the quarter evolved as you get into the fiscal second quarter and the balance of the year, how we should be thinking of those dynamics from a consumer takeaway standpoint? Thank you.

Leanne Cunningham

Analyst · Andrea Teixeira of JPMorgan. Your line is now open

Yes, I'll start with the first part of your question, Andrea. We believe, in general, again, our distributors are continuing to target the low end of their normal range, and that retailers have adjusted their inventory levels in response to the consumer takeaway remaining below its historical ranges and of course, in the high interest rate environment. You can see on our Schedule B for us, our depletions are in line with our shipments. So really now, we've continued to say that it's really about consumer demand as they pull the inventory through from supplier to distributor to retailer. We'll say in the U.S., we're working -- we can -- we have been and we continue to work really, really closely with our distributor partners. And as we said, we are not forecasting any significant changes in the level of trade inventories as we expect the impact on the consumer and the trade to continue as it has been. I'll just finish out on inventory. As in Europe, we own the greatest part of our owned distribution. So our stock levels there are normal, and we feel good with where we are also in Latin America. From a Brown-Forman internal perspective, from, on a year-over-year basis, we have made progress in reducing our finished goods and raw material on a year-over-year basis inventory levels.

Lawson Whiting

Analyst · Andrea Teixeira of JPMorgan. Your line is now open

Yes, let me add on a little bit because obviously, inventory levels, particularly at the consumer level, have been jumping around and we spent a lot of time last quarter talking about that. And I know a number of you wrote about it. But where we are today, I think, is interesting. So, and I'm going to talk -- this is about the U.S. first, and then we can go down the Europe path if you want to. But so total still spirits in the U.S. Right now, Nielsen and NABCA are both flat essentially. Last, this time last year, Nielsen was at plus 5.7. So it has gone from 5.7. It got to 0. It felt like overnight last fall and contributed to what was the very weak Christmas that the industry and Brown-Forman had last year. But it's still interesting how quickly it fell off. In our last call, we talked a lot about why, and we went through the big 3 of the cannabis, the GLP-1s and Gen Z and why we feel those are not the key drivers that these are not structural changes, but it really comes down to consumer spending and consumer inventories. And we still believe those are the two biggest factors that have impacted what has happened over the last year. Now as far as Brown-Forman takeaway in the U.S., I do think it's -- there's kind of there's so many unusual things in this quarter. But one of them is Nielsen and NABCA, I said they're flat in the industry. Brown-Forman is essentially flat to down 1 in NABCA, but Nielsen looks much worse, more like down mid-single digits. That -- the primary reason for that is the launch of Jack & Coke last year in Q1. So when we launched Jack & Coke in the U.S., it was a huge chain launch, control states, which would have been the NABCA obviously, was much slower. And so you've got this big push that happened right at the beginning of Q1 with Jack & Coke, and that factor alone is about half the difference, that five point difference between Nielsen, half of it is just Jack & Coke. The other half, which is much more positive and interesting is in the NABCA data, which captures on premise. The other half of that delta is driven by Woodford and Old Forester in the on premise, which, from honest, I didn't expect to see that, but both Woodford and Old Forester are really having strong runs in the on premise right now, well above sort of total distilled spirits in the on premise, which is pretty weak. It's down between 1 and 2. So we are bucking the trend there and with two of our strongest brands that are actually moving the needle and making a difference.

Andrea Teixeira

Analyst · Andrea Teixeira of JPMorgan. Your line is now open

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Eric Serotta of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Eric Serotta

Analyst · Eric Serotta of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Great. Thanks for taking the questions. Leanne and Lawson, hoping you can give a little bit more color into the comment Leanne made earlier that you've made some progress year-on-year in reducing your finished goods and raw material inventories. Does that mean that there is further reduction still to come as you look at the second half? And what would -- how are you looking at the impact in terms of that in terms of gross margins? The second question sort of related to inventories, but longer term would be, Lawson, any update in terms of your thinking about the level of inventories, maturing stocks out there for the industry? The 12-point-something million barrels aging in Kentucky and I'm sure a lot in Tennessee. How are you thinking in terms of how the market absorbs that as it reaches maturity over the next few years?

Leanne Cunningham

Analyst · Eric Serotta of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Yes. So Eric, I'll start with the first part of your question. So from barrel whiskey, like we always talk about, that's about our future growth expectation of our aged product. So as we look out, we continue to see demand in the future, we should always expect that to grow. But to my comment on finished goods and raw material on a year-over-year basis, with the volatility that was created by the COVID cycle and strong demand and the supply chain constraints, we've been intentional and we shared that on our last call to reduce our finished good WIP [ph] and raw material. Inventory levels on a year-over-year basis, we have accomplished that. There is one piece of, if you look at from April 30, our year-end, our finished goods is up a bit, and that is all about us proactively preparing for a variety of tariff-related scenarios. And then to your point on how it related to gross margin. Again, we talked about that as we think about our cost for the full year and where we kind of expect it to be, what's happening in the first couple of quarters of the year is more related to timing as we move through some inventory. But that we were specific to say that we would still have, and that would be offset by the impact of inflation on our input costs and our lower production volumes as we are continuing to focus on returning to more normal levels of our working capital. So I hope that is all factored into our gross margin guidance for the year.

Lawson Whiting

Analyst · Eric Serotta of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Yes. So the question around industry supplies and the Brown-Forman supplies, it's interesting. First of all, back up a year ago, the conversation was all about, do we have enough? So the conversation has gone 180 in the period of a year. So I tend to not sort of overreact to those because it's so sensitive to demand, and just a little bit of change obviously can make the industry supply go up and down pretty drastically. So a few things, though. Within -- we're talking American whiskey for the most part here, we feel pretty good about it right now. The big suppliers are the ones who still control the vast majority of the sales of American whiskey. And while everyone has been building their inventories, they're still building for sales growth rates that seem pretty reasonable, and we think are going to work its way out. And look, there are levers that we can pull when things get long and short, and we've been doing this for 154 years of managing supply, and I think we've gotten pretty good at figuring all that stuff out. So I just don't consider the whiskey supply to be one of the bigger risks, and we're not seeing it in terms of pricing in the promotional environment, you're not seeing that flow through either in the -- well in the United States at all. So as I say, I think we feel pretty good about the supply situation.

Eric Serotta

Analyst · Eric Serotta of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Great. And then just one more shorter term follow-up. One of my favorite quotes from last year from you, Lawson, was Christmas stunk [ph] seems a little silly to be asking about the holiday period with Labor Day weekend fast approaching. But the holiday sell-in will certainly be approaching as well. So how are you thinking about -- I know there's various comps and inventory movements and things like that. But how are you thinking about and planning for demand for this holiday season?

Lawson Whiting

Analyst · Eric Serotta of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Well, look, I mean, yes, that is a tough question. The same old, the comps, it seems to be the answer to everything because the comps are going to be much, much easier this Christmas than they were last year. Last year really was a, I'll say it was a surprise. I mean it's -- not just for Brown-Forman. I mean, the industry was surprised at how rapidly everything seem to fall off. So we've already said that the second half of the year is going to be our stronger, and even Q2 should incrementally be stronger than Q1. And so that includes a better Christmas than last year, but I'm really nervous to try to lay out a prediction on how good it's going to be.

Leanne Cunningham

Analyst · Eric Serotta of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

And I think one thing we can build on that is one thing that we know is while we do continue to see a stretched consumer that is seeking to stretch their discretionary income, premiumization trends are continuing. And we feel like our portfolio is incredibly well positioned for that premiumization trend to continue, which I think you can see about the strong performance of Woodford Reserve and Old Forester during the first quarter.

Eric Serotta

Analyst · Eric Serotta of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Great. Thanks so much for your insight and for your time.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Nadine Sarwat of Bernstein. Your line is now open.

Nadine Sarwat

Analyst · Nadine Sarwat of Bernstein. Your line is now open

Hi, thank you very much. Lawson, maybe if I ask my first question, putting the lumpiness of the distributor inventories to one side that we've had over many quarters now. And I look at what the implied underlying net sales growth was, I think it's the weakest now that we've seen in probably about four years. So well below that near-term growth algo. I fully appreciate your comment on sort of this being a year of two halves. But could you help us understand what you believe are the underlying drivers of that weakness? And how you expect that to develop over the remainder of the fiscal year, again, focusing on that underlying number rather than inventory. And then second question related to that, what are you assuming in terms of the health of the American consumer in your guidance versus perhaps what are you observing today in terms of the health of that consumer? Thank you.

Lawson Whiting

Analyst · Nadine Sarwat of Bernstein. Your line is now open

Okay. So if we focus on sort of what are the -- what are the factors in Q1? And as I said, I'll leave inventory out of it. What to the -- I don't know, maybe -- I don't know if it's stuck out from our comments that we made earlier. But the price increases last year, which hit August 1, and last summer, so there was buy-in in June, July ahead of that. That's not immaterial. And the same thing with the U.K., same timing, but it was tax increases and you have the commensurate buying ahead of that. So some of this is timing of all this kind of stuff that impacts depletions and things like that. So, but the -- if we're focused on the U.S. consumer themselves, I mean, look, obviously, the consumer is weaker. If TDS is down there at zero, both in NABCA, Nielsen, that as we said, that's a pretty steep drop off. But I do think that things are going to improve. This business has gone through these cycles where it drops off and then it comes back very, very -- pretty quickly. And we're not betting on quickly necessarily in our guidance, but we are saying that we think it will be sequentially better from each quarter from this point out.

Leanne Cunningham

Analyst · Nadine Sarwat of Bernstein. Your line is now open

And then some of the things we'll talk about here, Nadine, is as we look forward. In the first quarter, we know like France and Germany were impacted by the lengthy price negotiations that we have that have now closed. We're continuing to, in the short term, we were losing share there. As we look out, we think we'll continue to be more competitive as we have closed those negotiations. In the U.K., we continue to work to gain share versus the year ago period, even while the consumer is seeking value, their brand below, they are waiting for their brands to go on promotion and they're looking for deals online. And then again, in other markets like Brazil, we are gaining share. We've got strong double-digit growth. It's with Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey as well as Apple and Honey and Fire through our geographic expansion that we have there, our shift. We are strategically shifting from grocery to cash and carry to be where the consumer is. And we've launched a new pack size that connects with that consumer. And also in Mexico, it's a decelerating market, but we're gaining value share there across whiskeys and our RTDs, even in an environment where we've got weaker consumer confidence. So we had -- I can throw in Australia. We're continuing to gain share with Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey. So in a lot of these markets, we are continuing to see pockets where even with the changing dynamics of the market, we are gaining share in a lot of our international markets. And that's why we make the comment as we look into the year to go where we're looking for that growth from our international markets.

Lawson Whiting

Analyst · Nadine Sarwat of Bernstein. Your line is now open

Yes. Let me add on to Leanne just said about France and Germany, too, because those are two very large markets for Brown-Forman. We haven't been in that proverbial penalty box in a while. But it's a sign that we continue to be persistent in our goal of getting low and slow price increases and Europe's always been the challenge, with the big retailers in pricing. But through different revenue growth management techniques and different negotiations, you stick it out, it hurt the quarter. But the nice thing is that stuff should come back in Q2 and beyond. And so that's just one more reason to believe that we can accelerate from this point forward.

Nadine Sarwat

Analyst · Nadine Sarwat of Bernstein. Your line is now open

Got it. And just on what you're assuming in terms of the health of the American consumer in your guidance? Are you expecting that to pick up in the second half of the year? Or is your guidance assuming the status quo from here?

Leanne Cunningham

Analyst · Nadine Sarwat of Bernstein. Your line is now open

Yes. Overall, we're in -- for the U.S. consumer specifically, we are not expecting a significant change in the consumer trends or behavior.

Nadine Sarwat

Analyst · Nadine Sarwat of Bernstein. Your line is now open

Understood. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Filippo Falorni of Citi. Your line is now open.

Filippo Falorni

Analyst · Filippo Falorni of Citi. Your line is now open

Hi everyone. I wanted to ask a few follow-ups on the gross margin. Maybe we had first, can you break down the cost impact of 4.4 points on gross margin from commodities versus the reductions from an inventory revaluation impact with the kind of higher cost inventory flowing through. And then looking forward, should we expect that inventory impact to continue in Q2 and then the margin expansion to be really weighted to the second half for the full year? Or can we see some improvement already in the second quarter? Thank you.

Leanne Cunningham

Analyst · Filippo Falorni of Citi. Your line is now open

Yes. So specifically on the 440 basis points of cost, again, it's like we said, it's largely timing hitting largely in the first quarter. If you remember last year, our gross margin started higher and we kept trying to guide others down to where we inevitably landed at 60.5. This year is going to kind of be the inverse, as we have higher cost in this period due to those inventory cost fluctuations, again, related largely to our tequila brands. As we kind of work through that higher cost inventory, we do think that was largely in the first quarter, we'll get some of that in the second quarter as well. So it's really the second half which will see the absence of that impact or will be to the benefit of our lower cost inventory. Impact from inflation on our input costs and our lower production volumes will, for the full year, still when we're thinking about cost in total, and we're kind of in that low single-digit range, low to low mid-single-digit range for our full year.

Filippo Falorni

Analyst · Filippo Falorni of Citi. Your line is now open

Just a quick follow-up on the transition service agreement. Is that -- should we continue to expect a headwind in Q2 from these agreements? And then that to go away or to potentially turn into a tailwind in the second half?

Leanne Cunningham

Analyst · Filippo Falorni of Citi. Your line is now open

Correct. They are planned to end as we go into our second half. So again, that's part of our tail of two halves from a gross margin perspective. We expect those to be absent as we go into the second half.

Filippo Falorni

Analyst · Filippo Falorni of Citi. Your line is now open

Got it. Thank you. I’ll pass it on.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Moskow of TD Cowen. Your line is now open.

Robert Moskow

Analyst · Robert Moskow of TD Cowen. Your line is now open

Hi, thanks for the question. I wanted to ask about just the marketing efforts on Jack Daniel's in general. You talked at your Investor Day about a lot of plans to improve trends, boost the image of the brand. How do you think it's going? Because you look at the tracking data and it indicates continued declines. Do you feel like these efforts are strong enough to reacquaint the brand or strengthen the brand in a mainstream manner and offset what I think is happening, which is more shifts to premium offerings.

Lawson Whiting

Analyst · Robert Moskow of TD Cowen. Your line is now open

Yes. Well, look, I mean, the Jack Daniel's brand is still one of the largest and strongest brands in the world. And we very much believe that we've gotten creative out there, the McLaren racing partnership that we have and everything we're doing there. I mean getting back or not back into, but continuing our efforts in pop culture is one of the most important things that we can possibly do. We talked a little bit about Shaboozey. But that type of thing, and I can tell you the brands in lots and lots of particularly country music these days. But staying relevant in that pop culture and being able to recruit new consumers every year is kind of what we get paid for. I mean that's what we do. And so while it is challenging, I would cite that one, if you step back and look beyond anything beyond one year, the Jack Daniel's brand has remained very, very healthy. Over the last five years, the Jack trademark has delivered somewhere between 4% and 5% sales growth. And so if we can replicate that 4% or 5% sales growth, say, over the next 5 or 10 years, this company is very locked and loaded for at least those medium and longer-term algorithms that we've used where because the rest of the portfolio has so much strength and was, for the most part, in double-digit growth mode until COVID and all the chaos over the last few years. So we do think the math overall works, and we're going to continue to continue to grow the Jack Daniel's brand in the way that we've done for many, many, many years. So as part of that, though, we are -- last quarter, we talked about the super-premium Jack Daniel's extensions. They're actually one of the bigger contributors to our sales growth last year. So we continue to unveil those. They're unique. They're strong. They speak to the whiskey, gets we like to call them, but they do form an umbrella over the entire trademark and help us to continue to grow. So we really are looking at what -- at these trends over the last 12 months to be a bit of the exception to the rule a little bit. And as I said earlier on one of the other questions, I do really want to predict when the month that that's going to turn, but we feel like you're going to start to see some improvements. And in fact, to be fair, with the U.S. numbers, Jack is off the bottom, and we know it's starting to get a little bit better. Slow, but it's getting -- but it is improving.

Robert Moskow

Analyst · Robert Moskow of TD Cowen. Your line is now open

Can I ask a follow-up, Lawson? Like you mentioned you kind of nailed it there that the key here is to get younger consumers to engage with the Jack Daniel's brand, bring new consumers to that brand. Like do you -- what metrics do you follow to see if like those younger consumers are watching these ads, that the message is resonating with them and that it's starting to change their perception of the brand?

Lawson Whiting

Analyst · Robert Moskow of TD Cowen. Your line is now open

Yes, look, I mean as you would expect, we have a very full set of consumer insights and data that we track literally monthly, I think I can probably say that. So -- and we can break that down by age, and we do spend a lot of time debating the recruitment versus retention debate that basically all big brands have. And look, and so this new campaign, we believe, the one that back [ph] in black is kind of what we call it internally, but having that song is more relevant. Everybody kind of knows it. And so we think we know we're making progress there, and it indeed does show up in our statistics. Something I forgot about to mention a minute ago, it came through in our prepared remarks, but I find it -- if you look at the U.S. and you look at the 20 largest brands in the U.S., the fact that only two of them are growing, to me, is pretty incredible, and we said on the call, Woodford is one of the two. But you look at the biggest brands in the U.S., they are the ones who look the worst in these Nielsen trends, which speaks to the argument we made last quarter, which is the biggest brands were the ones that everybody was buying during COVID and the post-COVID boom years, those are the ones that are sitting in the consumer's cabinet and have taken a while to move through. So I think it just provides a little more evidence that, that -- to some extent, we don't really know the extent. It's a very hard number to pin down, but it contributes to why you're seeing such slowdown in trends on the very biggest brands.

Robert Moskow

Analyst · Robert Moskow of TD Cowen. Your line is now open

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Nik Modi of RBC. Your line is now open.

Nik Modi

Analyst · Nik Modi of RBC. Your line is now open

Yes, thank you. Good morning everyone. Lawson, I was hoping you can just share your perspective. I mean, feedback from the trade in August would suggest a pretty steep drop off at the industry level. And just curious kind of what you guys are observing just broadly why there could have been such a precipitous drop from July to August? And then just kind of piggybacking on that. I mean -- the more we hear about the delta-9 on cannabis beverages and how fast they're selling out when they're on display. And I know you kind of dismissed it last quarter, but I'm just curious, like have you seen some traction for some of those products and maybe infringing on some of the beverage alcohol occasions? Thanks.

Lawson Whiting

Analyst · Nik Modi of RBC. Your line is now open

All right. Well, the first one, July to August, I mean I -- to be honest, I don't know. I have not heard that. I've not heard that from our own teams either. So I'm not sure what the source is or I don't know, I really can't comment on it. But on the cannabis and specifically beverages and cannabis, I mean I think I've said this in a few different times on these calls. Cannabis has been around for a long time, just because it's going from illegal to legal hasn't -- I mean, I know it's gummies and all that kind of stuff are certainly exploding compared to where it was. But I just -- I don't believe it has much of anything to do with the current trends. I do not see cannibalization say, between a cannabis beverage and a spirit brand. So now people have said and studied this stuff that beer is much more apt to getting if there is some cannibalization between cannabis and beverage alcohol, the beer is the one that's at risk. And I kind of can believe that. I mean it makes logical sense, I think, and spirits, in particular, would be the least affected by that. So we'll have to see. I just -- I still can't picture beverages, cannabis beverages -- look, it was just my opinion. So others may differ from it, but I just don't see that being a big business. There's just too many other ways you can -- you don't need to sit and sip it. And there's only so much you can sip anyway. It's not like it's -- you're going to sit there and drink a 6-pack of the stuff. So I just think it is a business opportunity. I'm in the camp but it's pretty limited.

Leanne Cunningham

Analyst · Nik Modi of RBC. Your line is now open

And then the only thing I'll add to that from a consumer research perspective, we were -- our findings are that spirits are the preferred alcoholic beverage type among the individuals who use cannabis in the past month. So that's what our consumers are telling us.

Nik Modi

Analyst · Nik Modi of RBC. Your line is now open

Okay, thank you very much for your perspective.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Stephen Powers

Analyst · Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open

Hey guys, good morning. Thanks. So in the quarter, we saw distributor inventories tick up 3 points in the U.S. and 4 points in developed international. And just relative to your comments that you're not really expecting much improvement in the consumption run rate, especially in the U.S., I mean is there a risk there, that, that kind of one quarter build unwinds as we go into 2Q or the remainder of the year? How are you thinking about that?

Leanne Cunningham

Analyst · Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open

Our comments really is about a year-over-year perspective, and it's about lapping the softening of the total distilled spirits trends that we saw in the year ago period. So when we think about our year to go, and again, we'll have the largest benefit of that lapping in our second half. That was really a year-over-year comment because, again, with distributors and our outlook of their inventory levels, it continues to be that we are not forecasting an outlook that has significant change. We're continuing to believe that the trade and consumer behavior will be similar to what it is now.

Stephen Powers

Analyst · Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open

Right. Okay. I just mean consumption is down versus year ago inventory levels that sequentially came down to reflect deteriorating consumption. And now consumption isn't improving and inventory levels are going up. So it just seems like there's some risk built in there, but we can -- I can follow up later. The second question would be, you talked about France and Germany being headwinds in the quarter, but sort of normalizing as we go forward as you've gotten through those retailer negotiations as a benefit to the remainder of the year. You also talked about full year contributions of growth on Gin Mare and Diplomático as kind of being a notable contributors to the -- especially the second half improvement in your outlook. Is there a way to quantify the impact of those dynamics as you move from 1Q into 2Q and then 2H?

Leanne Cunningham

Analyst · Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open

I mean I think we can say that they are all implied in our guidance and what we've said first half, second half. From an organic perspective, again, with the shipment base for Gin Mare and Diplomático compared to where we were last year, we believe we're going to have a benefit in this year. We are not quantifying that specifically or quantifying the benefit that we believe that's in our year-to-go period now that we have concluded our pricing negotiations in Germany and France. But again, we believe that we had the biggest impact from those negotiations, specifically with Germany and France in the first quarter that now will not be present as we go forward.

Stephen Powers

Analyst · Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open

Okay. Okay. And I don't know if I could squeeze in a third here, if you're generous, thank you in advance. But tequila, notably weak this quarter, it was soft last quarter as well. Can you expand on why it was just before that, we were talking about tripling tequila as we look out into the future? I'm sure that's still the ambition. But just trying to understand why the softness so acutely in these past couple of quarters? And how do I think about that as we go forward?

Lawson Whiting

Analyst · Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open

Yes. Okay. I'll take that. A couple of things. One, before I hit our own. I just -- I find these two statistics pretty interesting -- is an IWSR thing. But they said that in this calendar year in 2024, tequila is going to surpass vodka as the largest value category in the United States, which for anybody that's been in this business for a few years, that to me is pretty incredible as to how rapidly that has grown. The other part of it are contributing to that, I guess, is that 22 to 24 year olds are just as likely to be drinking tequila as they are beer, which that also floors me a little bit that, that has grown that much. So a lot of our tequila weakness, one is a lot of it's Mexico. We are pushing price very, very hard down there. Now we're pushing price in the United States, too, and that is a competitive thing we're doing right now. But while the U.S. total distilled spirits pricing is still holding together, it's very, very low single digit. Tequila has actually gone a little bit negative, not massively, but I think it's down a point or something like that. So -- and now we're up like 3 points. And so we're sort of keeping our head down a little bit and continuing to push the price button whenever a lot of other brands are going the other way. Now I don't -- I mean, look, the category is still one of the strongest categories out there in spirits. And we've -- while we've not kept up with some of the famous brands that are out there. Herradura in particular, is one of the sort of core, most important brands in our portfolio. We haven't done great. But I can tell you, over the last -- not the last two quarters, but our growth rates in the last few years have all been kind of double digit or very high single digit. And so while we're a bit critical these days of the tequila trends right now, you got to remember, they haven't been a drag on the company's growth rate. They've actually been a net positive. So it's a very, very competitive category now. There's a lot of brands in there. We have one of the -- we have one of the best, we still believe it, and we're going to continue to push forward. The other -- there's been a fair amount of talk, I guess, about the internationalization of the category. And el Jimador is actually pretty well positioned to be able to go after that. It's one of the biggest brands in a bunch of markets like the U.K., like Australia, like Brazil, some others. So it's kind of -- people don't really know that or follow that, but it is a growth opportunity for us.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Sue Perram for closing remarks.

Sue Perram

Analyst

Thank you, Marvin, and thank you, Lawson and Leanne, and thank you to everyone for joining us today for Brown-Forman's First Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Call. If you have any additional questions, please contact us. We look forward to participating in the Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference next week, and hope to see many of you. For those of you unable to attend, our fireside chat will be made available as a webcast accessible via the Brown-Forman corporate website under the section titled Investors, Events and Presentations. We wish everyone an enjoyable weekend, particularly those in the United States that are celebrating the Labor Day holiday. And on Monday, September 2, we hope you will join us in raising a glass as we say happy birthday to our founder, George Garvin Brown, and good luck, again, to those of you who entered into the Birthday Bourbon Sweepstakes. With that, this concludes our call.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.