Joe Dziedzic
Analyst · Macquarie. Please go ahead
Thanks Tom. Good morning, everyone. I'll start with a summary of our quarterly results using the same format we've used in prior quarters. Then I'll review segment results and finish with some comments on our outlook for the rest of the year. Our reported revenue for the quarter declined 11% as a negative currency impact of $118 million was partially offset by organic growth of $27 million. The currency impact was about 40 million from the euro, about 30 million from the Brazilian real and about 15 million from the Mexican peso. The organic growth came primarily from Argentina and the payments business in Brazil. Operating profit rose 28% to $31 million, reflecting a margin rate that improved from 2.9% to 4.1%. On an organic basis, operating profit was up 50% for $12 million, driven primarily by Argentina, Mexico and France. The improvement in Argentina is primarily inflation driven and we did see some volume increase. The improvement in Mexico is primarily the result of cost actions and we did have 2% organic revenue growth there, primarily driven by increased cash and transit volume. Branch profit improved from cost actions and the inclusion in last year's results of several large unfavourable settlements that did not repeat. Clearly, the reorganization and restructuring that we announced in December 2014 was a major contributor to the profit improvement. These actions remain on track to deliver the $45 million to $50 million of year-over-year savings we previously communicated. The EPS bridge highlights the strong improvement from operations versus last year up $0.18 due to the operating profit improvement in Argentina, Mexico and France, and a slight improvement in interest expense and minority interest. The unfavourable currency impact of $0.07 was driven primarily by the euro, the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso. The next few slides provide an overview of the five largest countries and global markets. Second quarter revenue in the U.S. rose 2%, which was in line with expectations. We've added significant volume in the U.S. but at very competitive pricing. The impact of the money processing business that we're transitioning to a competitor, is a drag on both revenue and profits. The fuel surcharge adjustments during the quarter also reduced revenue versus last year by about 2% and had an unfavourable impact on profit due to timing. The margin rate improved only slightly to 3.5% as we had to increase support in several branches to improve service levels that declined due to the significant increase in volume we've experienced since late last year. The cost of this added support offset the profit from the volume increases and the cost savings from the restructuring actions taken earlier this year. The U.S. management team is focused on improving service levels and doing so at a lower cost than we incurred in the second quarter. Our U.S. team is in the process of implementing several productivity initiatives that are foundational to continuous improvement, and changing how we managed the business. These projects include field force automation with hand held devices, route logistics and centralized billing. In February, we provided a project implementation timeline for four of these projects to help investors track our progress. During our first quarter earnings call, we alerted investors that we were behind on some of these projects as we had redeployed resources to focus on the significant volume we have added in the U.S. We're behind our previously communicated schedule for a variety of reasons, including the redeployment of resources. Some of the projects have been more technologically challenging than anticipated. In addition, we have modified our implementation plans to incorporate learnings from initial rollouts. We began building our formal project management organization in early 2014, which has improved our project execution, but we have more maturing to do in this area. Our U.S. team understands the importance of these projects and is fully committed to their successful implementation. It is just taking longer than we planned. While we're currently behind schedule, we believe the implementation and ultimate optimization of these projects will put our U.S. business on a path of continuous improvement that will drive profit growth over the next few years and enable us to deliver margin rates that are more in line with our U.S. competitors. Despite these challenges, our mid-year margin rate of 4% has doubled over the same period last year and we still expect to achieve our 2015 targeted margin range of 4% to 5%. Profits in Mexico improved despite a 13% revenue decline due to unfavourable currency. This business is recovering after a difficult 2014, that included volume declines related to clients bank customer losses. We're finally moving down the volume losses and the gains we've made in the retail segment are starting to show. After the customer losses, we took aggressive cost actions that have begun to show benefits on a year-over-year basis. On our first quarter earnings call, we said that we did not expect to repeat the 9.2% margin rate achieved in the first quarter, at least not in 2015. Second quarter's 5.3% margin rate reflects solid operating performance over a difficult year ago quarter. With a margin rate of 7.3% for the first half of 2015, we're on track to achieve our full-year target range of 6% to 8%. Mexico has made solid progress on several key projects that are driving profit growth in 2015. These projects will be key enablers for Mexico to achieve its target of 10% operating margin next year. The implementation of the standard branch structure was completed in the first quarter, so we should see almost a full year of benefits from this project in 2015. We're ahead of schedule on our CIT and ATM efficiencies project, which we expect will generate significant savings in 2016. The finance centralization and money processing turnaround efforts are also trending ahead of the timeline communicated at the beginning of the year. The Mexico team has turned the corner on revenue with organic revenue growth for the first time after four consecutive quarters of decline, with profit margins at 7.3% for the first half of the year, Mexico is right in the middle of its targeted range of 6% to 8% for the full year. France, Brazil and Canada round out our five largest markets and represent additional opportunities for improvement. These countries had little or no organic revenue growth in the second quarter and had a combined margin rate of about 5%. Profits in France improved despite headwinds from operating and a slow growth macro environment with strong currency headwinds. We've reduced our cost in France and we're repositioning this business to pursue higher margin solutions within the cash supply chains of our customers. We expect to see the benefits of this focus in 2016, but believe that 2015 will be a challenging year on the top line with continued solid margins from ongoing cost controls. Brazil's revenue increased 3% on an organic basis, reflecting the impact of the economic slowdown in that country. The margin rate of 3.1% was well behind the year ago rate, as selling price increases lagged behind increased labour cost and we experienced significant volume declines. We expect some price recovery in the second half and have won some additional business that we expect will improve the second half results sequentially compared to the first half. Brazil continues to be a very challenging market and we are prepared to take additional cost actions if necessary to improve profitability. Profits in Canada were roughly flat against year ago levels despite a slight revenue decline and higher pension cost from a lower discount rate. We expect recent volume gains and cost actions to deliver improvement in the remainder of the year. Despite the negative impact of the strong dollar, the steady performance of our global markets unit continued into the second quarter. The combined operating margin rate of the 35 countries that comprise this unit was over 14%, up more than 300 basis points over the year ago quarter. The Latin America region delivered strong top line growth and margins almost entirely from Argentina. Results in Chile also improved due mainly to recent restructuring actions. The EMEA region delivered lower, but still solid margins at 8% in a no growth macroeconomic environment. Asia continues to perform well on all fronts. First half cash flow from operating activities on a non-GAAP basis declined versus last year as last year's cash flow was unusually strong due to Venezuela results being reported at the very favorable exchange rate, 6 bolivars to the dollar and the severance payments related to our reorganization and restructuring actions, but as we've consistently stated, cash flow from Venezuela is not accessible and is now negligible after the most recent devaluation. Capital expenditures and capital leases were down $17 million versus last year, a decrease spend across all segments. We spent less on IT, primarily to finance shared services implementation as well as less on facilities and other equipment. The transition to operating leases in the U.S. for CompuSafe also helped. Net debt increased by $24 million from the end of 2014, due primarily to the impact of the strengthened U.S. dollar the cash flow from operating activities was offset by CapEx spending and dividends. I'll close by covering our 2015 outlook. We expect to end the year with earnings in the $1.55 to $1.75 range on revenue expectations that have been reduced from $3.1 billion to approximately $3 billion. Revenue reduction is based on first half organic growth of 3% and an expectation that growth continues at a similar rate in the second half. The reduction versus the previous expectation of 5% organic growth reflects lower volumes across many countries. We've seen a decline in CIT stops and the amount of currency processed in many of our countries. The revenue growth we're generating is largely due to inflation driven price increases, most significantly in Argentina. Despite this reduction in revenue guidance, we're maintaining our full-year margin outlook of $165 million to $180 million, and increasing our operating margin rate expectation to 5.5% to 6%. The reasons for maintaining our operating profit and EPS guidance include the restructuring actions taken earlier this year. The improvements in Mexico and the inflation driven growth in Argentina. Together, these factors should enable us to deliver a second half improvement that is close to the first half. For the full year, excluding currency, we are estimating improved EPS from operations of $1.04 to $1.24 and we have already delivered $0.57 of this improvement through midyear. Whether we're at the low end or the high end of the range in the second half of the year depends primarily on two key variables. Brazil's ability to execute on price increases and win new business and the overall volume in the fourth quarter. Last year, we had an extremely strong fourth quarter, particularly in global services. Given the slowing diamond and jewellery market and the unusual currency volatility the fourth quarter of last year, it will be difficult to top last year's fourth quarter. Obviously, there are other variables like foreign exchange and important actions to be executed in the second half, but we believe Brazil and fourth quarter volumes are the two most important determinants of where we land in the EPS range from $1.55 to $1.75 in 2015. On the left hand side of the page is a line item comparison of 2014 results to our 2015 guidance. The right hand side highlights some of the assumptions behind our full year outlook, which include a $425 million unfavourable impact on revenue from the strengthened U.S. dollar. I think I've covered what has changed and the reasons for the changes. Before opening it up for questions, I want to point out that there are additional slides in the appendix that I will not cover this morning, but there is a slide that I've previously highlighted, but I think is worth mentioning again. On Slide 22, we've provided the 2014 operating profit and EPS for each of the last six quarters. On Slide 23, we provide our 2016 EPS guidance of $2 and $2.40. We will provide more details on 2016 during our Investor Day meeting on October 6th in New York City. Drew, let's open it up for questions.