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The Brink's Company (BCO)

Q1 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 24, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Brink's Company's First Quarter 2014 Earnings Call. Brink's issued a press release on the first quarter results this morning. The company also filed an 8-K that includes the release and the slides that will be used in today's call. For those of you listening by phone, the release and slides are available on the company's website at brinks.com. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Now for the company's Safe Harbor statement. This call and the Q&A session contain forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from projected or estimated results. Information regarding factors that could cause such differences is available in today's press release and in the company's most recent SEC filings. Information presented and discussed on this call is representative as of today only. Brink's assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. The call is copyrighted and may not be used without written permission from Brink's. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ed Cunningham, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. Mr. Cunningham, you may begin.

Edward Cunningham

Analyst

Thank you, Denise. Good morning, everyone. Joining me today are CEO, Tom Schievelbein; and CFO, Joe Dziedzic. This morning, we reported results on both the non-GAAP and non-GAAP basis. The non-GAAP results exclude a number of items, including U.S. retirement expenses, certain employee benefit items, acquisitions, dispositions and some currency-related items, including the write-down of net monetary assets in Venezuela. The non-GAAP results for the quarter use a tax rate of 37.5%, which is the midpoint of our full year range of 36% to 39%. We believe the non-GAAP results make it easier for investors to assess operating performance between periods. Accordingly, our comments from this point forward will focus primarily on non-GAAP results from continuing operations. Before summarizing these results, I want to quickly highlight 2 items. The first is the recently announced change to the exchange rate we use to translate results in Venezuela, from VEF 6.3 per U.S. dollar to approximately VEF 50 per dollar. We want to be clear from the outset this morning that the new exchange rate known as SICAD II became effective on March 24, so it had a relatively minor impact on first quarter results. However, it will have a significant impact on results going forward, which is reflected in our revised full year guidance and other forward-looking information that was disclosed in this morning's release. The second item is security losses, which were down significantly from year ago -- from the year-ago quarter due mainly to last year's $19 million charge related to a theft loss in Belgium. The $19 million charge, which equates to $0.24 per share, was allocated across each of our regional segments on a pro rata basis, resulting in more favorable year-over-year comparisons in each segment. Now for a brief summary of first quarter results from continuing…

Thomas C. Schievelbein

Analyst

Thanks, Ed, and good morning, everyone. Obviously, the major news in the quarter revolves around the devaluation in Venezuela, which effectively eliminates our profits there for the rest of the year. It's important to note that we have been operating in Venezuela for over 40 years and that the business has been extremely well run by our local team. I also want to emphasize that the first quarter results we reported this morning include higher profits in Venezuela that were translated at the far more favorable official rate of VEF 6.3 until March 24 when we began using the SICAD II rate of approximately VEF 50. Joe is going to provide more details on the developments that led us to report our Venezuela results at the new rate and its financial impact. As a result of the rate change, we've reduced our 2014 segment margin guidance from 7% to 6.5%, and we now expect revenue to come in at around $3.7 billion. I want to be clear that this change in guidance is due entirely to the devaluation. With the exception of Latin America, our outlook has not changed for any region. The segment profit bridge illustrates the favorable impact that Venezuela had on profit growth for the quarter. The year-over-year comparison was also more favorable due to last year's Belgium theft loss. Excluding the improvement in Venezuela and the 2013 theft loss, segment profit declined by $6 million on an organic basis. Other than the impact of the devaluation, these results are consistent with the guidance we provided at the beginning of the year. A loss of profits in Venezuela has driven our full year margin guidance for Latin America down to a range of between 7% and 9%. Our prior guidance reflected a flat to slightly down year…

Joseph W. Dziedzic

Analyst

Thanks, Tom. Before getting into first quarter results, I want to provide some background on the Venezuela devaluation and its impact on Brink's. I'll start by covering some of the events and rationale behind our decision to change the rate that we used to translate Venezuela results. But first, some history. In December 2009, we accessed what was then called the parallel market to repatriate approximately VEF 75 million at an exchange rate of VEF 6.2 to the U.S. dollar. This repatriation yielded about USD 12 million. During the first half of 2010, we repatriated another approximately VEF 50 million, yielding another USD 70 million. In May 2010, the parallel market closed. We have obtained very limited currency conversions since May 2010 through any mechanism. In some years, we have been able to access enough U.S. dollars to pay for needed aircraft parts for maintenance. But in recent years, even dollars for this purpose have been inaccessible to us. This background is important because the reality is we have been able to operate our business with very limited U.S. dollars because we are very much a local company in Venezuela, with local revenues and expenses and very limited needs for imports. We believe we are different from many other companies you are reading about who are converting to SICAD I at an exchange rate of about VEF 11 to the USD 1. Many of these companies sell consumer goods that must be imported into Venezuela. Our business is based on local services performed with local personnel who are paid in local currency. Given the recent developments in the exchange mechanisms in Venezuela and the government's stated purpose of the various exchange mechanisms, we believe we are not eligible for the official exchange rate and that it is unlikely we will…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Jeff Kessler of Imperial Capital.

Jeffrey T. Kessler - Imperial Capital, LLC

Analyst

Before I get into my -- a couple of Venezuela questions, I do have some actual operating questions to ask you. First is, is there any way that you can expand the scope of global services from what it is today? I mean, granted it has its charge, we know what it does. Are there other things that you can do to expand the scope of global services so that's a higher percentage of total revenue?

Thomas C. Schievelbein

Analyst

So we're looking at that, Jeff, and the global services guys are investigating a number of different opportunities. Whether they be mining, pharmaceuticals, other things, it depends a little bit on the particular geography. And so that is, as we said earlier, one of the areas that we're looking at. Part is expanding global services. We need to find the right products and the right opportunities, the right lines of business to be able to do that.

Jeffrey T. Kessler - Imperial Capital, LLC

Analyst

Okay. Second quick question is, I know you've been investigating a change in the operating model, the way that you sell CompuSafe from a actual sale to perhaps more of a felinical [ph] or recurring revenue alarm-type model. Have you come to a conclusion on that? Have you changed the model a little in that way to get that system out there a little bit more, let's say, strenuously?

Thomas C. Schievelbein

Analyst

So we're -- as you said, we are investigating in different ways for us to go to market with CompuSafe. And so that whether that's a leasing arrangement, whether that's somebody else buying it -- servicing it, we're in the process of going through that as we screen.

Jeffrey T. Kessler - Imperial Capital, LLC

Analyst

Okay. And finally, I want to ask, have you been -- have you gotten involved in Europe? I know that Loomis has been investing in certain types of new bill marking and anti-counterfeiting technologies, DNA-type of stuff. Have you been investigating that as well?

Thomas C. Schievelbein

Analyst

We have a number of new technologies that we're putting in, in Europe. Where we've concentrated, as I indicated earlier, is the managed services approach with Brink's IMS. We do that as -- from our perspective, as a way to drive higher profitability and it's more sticky issue with the customers. And we can basically outsource some of the back-office functions for the financial institutions, and we've had good luck with that.

Jeffrey T. Kessler - Imperial Capital, LLC

Analyst

All right. Now just a couple...

Thomas C. Schievelbein

Analyst

We also do some of the counterfeiting and that sort of stuff as well, but we are concentrating on IMS.

Jeffrey T. Kessler - Imperial Capital, LLC

Analyst

Okay. So that would be part of the IMS business?

Thomas C. Schievelbein

Analyst

That's correct.

Jeffrey T. Kessler - Imperial Capital, LLC

Analyst

Okay, okay. With regard to Venezuela, one of the things that we've gotten a lot of questions from clients on is actually stripping this down to GAAP cash flow, what that has done to your business overall. And number one, if you take out Venezuela, if one assumes that Venezuela is going to generate basically 0, the rest of the company on an actual cash flow basis, given that you have some things that don't recur, such as some of these incentive payments or some of the payments that you make internally into the company, what type of free cash flow generation are you looking for in 2014 or can you attain in 2014 if you have this slightly better relationship between the D&A and CapEx?

Joseph W. Dziedzic

Analyst

So, Jeff, I would -- this is Joe. I'd answer that by starting with our 2013 cash flows. We had a little over $200 million of cash flow from operating activities. We spent in round numbers on a cash basis about $180 million of CapEx, so you got about $20 million left over. And then we spent a little less than $20 million paying the shareholders' dividends of Brink's, and a few million went to some of our minority shoulders. So in aggregate, the cash flow was about a wash from a free cash flow perspective. The Venezuela net income obviously was -- and cash flow was in the cash flow from operating activities, and it's a fair approximation to use free cash flow for Venezuela that equals about the net income, which we provided in our release last week and in our appendix for the press release today. It's about $40 million for 2013. So last year, included in that 0 free cash flow was about $40 million from Venezuela. Last year, we also had some acquisition disposition activity that generated about a little more than $40 million of free cash flow. So last year, in total, it would have been about a wash on a free cash flow basis with Venezuela removed. Last year, we had a particularly tough working capital year. And if you look at the prior year, we were about $50 million better in cash flow from operating activities because of that. So what we expect going forward is to continue to focus on working capital and improving our working capital to help us get to as close to free cash flow of 0 or positive as we can, given our current income levels.

Jeffrey T. Kessler - Imperial Capital, LLC

Analyst

With regard to cash flow, how should we be treating the minority interest in Venezuela going forward?

Joseph W. Dziedzic

Analyst

Well, we disclosed in our cash flow statements the dividends we paid to minority shareholders. I think what you'll see now is the minority interest expense in the P&L will be pretty close to what we pay in dividends. In the last couple of years, there have been less dividends paid in a few of the countries than in previous years. So you can look at the income statement and the cash flow statement to see how those 2 correlate, but I would expect them to be reasonably close going forward.

Jeffrey T. Kessler - Imperial Capital, LLC

Analyst

Okay. Is there any expectation that going to SICAD II will make it a little bit easier for you to negotiate or get repatriation? Or is that something that you're just going to have to wait and see for the next 12 months?

Joseph W. Dziedzic

Analyst

SICAD II is an exchange mechanism that we've been applying for conversion of currency. Our success rate hasn't been very high. We have been able to get some currency out. If you look at our U.S. dollar equivalent cash balance at the end of the first quarter, it's going to be in the $10 million to $15 million range. The specific number will be in the Q when we file it. But if we had $94 million at the end of the year and you devalued by $87 million, we did generate a little bit of cash in the first quarter obviously given the earnings from Venezuela. So we're going to work to get as much of the $10 million to $15 million repatriated through SICAD II as we possibly can. I can't predict the success we'll have at that -- with that exchange mechanism.

Jeffrey T. Kessler - Imperial Capital, LLC

Analyst

Okay. Probably one last question. Your Latin American margins, if you had tried to strip out Venezuela, it appears they have been flat or declining. It's kind of hard to obviously put the whole thing together, particularly given that you've been investing very heavily in Mexico, so that's obviously a big deal in this. But the question is how do -- given that you're talking about Mexico, Mexico actually improving in 2016, what are we looking at in terms of now you'd seem nearly breaking out Latin America? How can we -- how are we to look at Latin American margins? I know you've given some guidance on that, but how do we look at Latin American margins going forward in 2014 to 2015?

Thomas C. Schievelbein

Analyst

Well, so, Jeff, when you look at -- we had said in the past that we anticipate the Latin American margins to be in the low double-digit range. That obviously have Venezuela in that a reasonable amount, and that also assumes Mexico gets to the 10%. So you've got the guidance that we provided, the 7% to 9%. We have some investments in productivity there. That also has Venezuela in a 0. And so as we get Mexico up to the 10%, you'll see that start to trend much closer to that very low double-digit number. Joe, any comments other than that? So I mean, to make sure it's clear, obviously, the impact of Venezuela has been negative on those overall margins because we've taken a positive adder and provide it to the 0 while we keep the revenue in there.

Jeffrey T. Kessler - Imperial Capital, LLC

Analyst

And so what I'm -- and so getting -- from the base of 7% to 9%, my assumption is that you're not expecting a further decline in Latin American margin assuming that Mexico improves?

Thomas C. Schievelbein

Analyst

That would be correct.

Joseph W. Dziedzic

Analyst

The only thing I would add in comment is the 7% to 9% includes Venezuela for the first 3 months at VEF 6 to the dollar. So when we get to next year, if the SICAD II rate remains at VEF 50, it does fluctuate not by much. But should that change, that would obviously affect that. But the run rate of the business is slightly lower than 7% to 9% because it still has Venezuela for 3 months at VEF 6.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Jamie Clement of Sidoti. James Clement - Sidoti & Company, LLC: Joe, one quick one with respect to the guidance and how you reported the first quarter. In the -- I believe I think it's the -- I think it's Page 9, the hypothetical. The tax rate is now higher, reflecting essentially the elimination of Venezuela, yet when you discussed the first quarter, you were talking about the old tax rate. So I was just sort of curious what exactly was going on there. Should we be assuming that rate in the 40% range kind of for the foreseeable future?

Joseph W. Dziedzic

Analyst

So the difference in the 36% to 39% that you see on Page 8 and the 40% to 43% is Venezuela for 3 months at the VEF 6 exchange rate. Venezuela's tax rate was very low due to some -- very nuanced to tax treatment on a U.S. GAAP basis for Venezuela that is rather technical and complex. But effectively, Venezuela had a very low tax rate for U.S. GAAP purposes. And so the adjusted non-GAAP on Page 9 assumes Venezuela at the VEF 50 exchange rate for the full year, and that effectively has Venezuela at 0 operating profit and net income. And so the favorability in Venezuela's low tax rate gets washed away with the exchange rate change. James Clement - Sidoti & Company, LLC: Okay, understood. With respect to one of your slides and talking about the percentage of "performing branches" in the U.S. and your goals, I know we start getting into issues of security and propriety and that sort of thing. But can you help us in broad terms understand how you define a branch as performing or not?

Thomas C. Schievelbein

Analyst

What we've talked about is looking at what the branch does for margin, basically their P&L, then adding on the SG&A for the business that has run it, along with all the IT infrastructure and that sort of stuff, Jamie. So I'm trying to remember, was it 500? Yes, 500...

Joseph W. Dziedzic

Analyst

Yes, just on profit.

Thomas C. Schievelbein

Analyst

Yes, 5%. That's the floor for what we consider a performing branch, so it has to be net additive to the results for the company. If they were nonperforming, that means that they didn't meet that threshold. James Clement - Sidoti & Company, LLC: Okay. From the language that you all are using, and please correct me if I'm wrong, when you talk about increasing the percentage of performing branches, it seems like that's as -- really a function of making nonperforming branches performing rather than subtracting underperforming branches. And that requires investment. You all clearly want to grow other areas of your business, and obviously potentially a reentry into Home Security is on the table here. Cash obviously in the U.S. is scarce. Repatriating what you have in some other countries can be costly. How do you think about return of capital to shareholders versus -- and balance sheet leverage versus long-term growth prospects for the company? I mean, do you foresee a time possibly when you have a very, very tough decision to make, whether you want to go full-blazes growth mode and have to spend more and perhaps even do away with the dividend? Or is the dividend something that's really sacred?

Thomas C. Schievelbein

Analyst

Those are all great questions, Jamie, and those are the questions that we have ongoing discussions with the board on, and I don't want to get in front of those particular discussions. James Clement - Sidoti & Company, LLC: Okay, that's...

Thomas C. Schievelbein

Analyst

I mean... James Clement - Sidoti & Company, LLC: Yes, no, I get it.

Thomas C. Schievelbein

Analyst

I mean -- yes, I mean, at some point, you're going to have to decide which way you go. James Clement - Sidoti & Company, LLC: Okay. And then I think the last question I have, and this is really my only one on Venezuela, is actually on operations on the ground right now. There's some really troubling news that we're reading about. So first of all, a, do you think your people are safe down there? B, do you think that from a -- how should I put this, a policy perspective where you've got a new law limiting gross margins and that sort of thing, do you feel that with the devaluation that your risk is essentially, from a P&L perspective, de minimis at this point in time? Or are there things that we need to consider as a result of the unrest down there that maybe we aren't thinking about or haven't historically had to think about?

Thomas C. Schievelbein

Analyst

So I think you have 2 different points there, 2 different issues. On the financial side, the financial risk now in Venezuela is effectively 0. We do have to make sure that we continue to operate safely, that we continue to care for the people that are down there and to continue to earn our customers' trust. As I say, we have a very effective team down there. They're doing a great job in terms of operating the business even though we have these issues with the exchange and the financials. So I mean, the #1 goal for the operators is to make sure that they run a good business and that they bring their people home safely, as well as the goods that they're transporting, which is different than the financial. As we said now, for the rest of 2014, we basically have 0 risk because we're getting 0 profit.

Joseph W. Dziedzic

Analyst

Certainly, from an EPS perspective, given our forecast at 0 in there, the -- in the forecast for -- from Venezuela operations, so the business continues to perform fairly well. You can see from the revenue and operating profit guidance information we provided that our margin rate is not at risk given the limitations the government imposed. But the other factor is in times like this in Venezuela, our business does very well. On a local currency basis, in the first quarter year-over-year, we were up over 60%. So we had great volume growth and revenue growth in this difficult environment. The team continues to perform well. James Clement - Sidoti & Company, LLC: And you all think they're safe?

Joseph W. Dziedzic

Analyst

They're -- when they're out on the routes, they're in armored vehicles. James Clement - Sidoti & Company, LLC: Okay. I guess that's as good as you can do down there.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Jeff Omohundro of Davenport. Jeffrey F. Omohundro - Davenport & Company, LLC, Research Division: Just a question on the North American business specifically. And really coming out from a high level, I wonder if you could talk to -- with the competitive landscape pricing actions, in the context of the company's growth objectives, margin objectives and focus on expanding in value-add service.

Thomas C. Schievelbein

Analyst

So in North America, we have, and you got the U.S. and Canada. In Canada, there's the -- there was just an acquisition there, so basically, the 2 large players in Canada are Brink's and Garda. In the U.S., we have Brink's, Garda and Loomis, with a couple of other smaller players. We're not assuming that we're getting a lift out of additional revenue in order to get to our margin goals for the -- for North America. Most of this is a discussion about how do we continue to reduce cost, how we continue to improve our service so that we keep our customers coming back. And so it's a much more of around we talked about limiting overtime. We've talked about productivity gains. We plan on becoming much more efficient and effective and to earn our customers' trust and, therefore, get those margins back up to where we had talked about, which is at 7%. I'm not sure I exactly answered your question. If I didn't, maybe you can give me some clarification, Jeff. Jeffrey F. Omohundro - Davenport & Company, LLC, Research Division: No, no, that was very good. I appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] This will conclude our question-and-answer session. The Brink's Company First Quarter 2014 Earnings Call is now concluded. We thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect your lines.