Jonathan Johnson
Analyst · Guggenheim Partners
Thanks, Adrianne. In today's uncertain market -- I like this slide. Having a strong balance sheet certainly gives us more stability and flexibility in a world of uncertainty and rising interest rates. Next slide. Next, I'll provide some key insights into our business, including where our focused home strategy is paying off and where we are targeting and driving growth. Next slide. We shared this slide in the past to illustrate the direction of third-party forecast for online sales in the domestic furniture and home furnishings market. Based on revised third-party data as of June, online penetration in the category is still expected to track around 33% this year. However, this is now expected to be below penetration levels in 2020 and 2021, which were revised higher. These revisions are not surprising. It is encouraging to see the projection for 33% of purchases to be transacted online. Longer term, we still believe that as the market matures, there is sufficient room for online penetration to move higher. What also excites me is that the total addressable market for the -- in the U.S. for furniture and home furnishings continues to grow. It is now estimated at $419 billion, up from $390 billion based on prior third-party reporting. The larger market provides us with additional opportunities to gain market share in a highly fragmented space, even if online penetration declined slightly this year. As the fourth largest online retailer in the home furnishings in the United States our Smart Value brand pillar and strategy, focused on increasing the breadth and depth of our home product assortment, will help us serve this larger and still growing market. Next slide. I love showing this slide to remind investors that Overstock has significant white space available in the quadrant where home goods expertise meet Smart Value. This quadrant is the right place for Overstock to compete. We've been strategic about choosing to focus on it. Some competitors, leveraging oversized debt and/or expensive business models, try to cast a wider net on both ends of the customer value spectrum to drive sales growth. We believe that strategy is not economically viable over the long term. Our focus on the white space within our quadrant helps us maximize our marketing spend to win business across our customer base and do so profitably. Our target customers, those that seek the highest quality and style for their dollar, what we call Smart Value, and an easy experience to find what they want, already have a greater capacity to shop with us. We purposely play to our natural strengths. These customers represent roughly 40% of the market. Overstock has ample growth opportunity in this space and with these target customers. And when wallets are stretched, more and more customers seek Smart Value. I will now pass to our 3 brand pillars, each of which are key to our continued growth and help define Overstock value proposition. Next slide. The first brand pillar is Product Findability. During the quarter, approximately 99% of our revenue was in home categories. Our merchandising team has done an impressive job of adding breadth and depth to product assortment on our website. Our unique capital-light and asset-light business model allows us to onboard partners and grow product assortment at a relatively fast pace, a key part of our strategy to grow our brand association with home. The expansion of home product assortment has positioned us favorably to meet the evolving needs of our customers with a broader and better offering. Unlike some of our competitors, because we don't own any inventory, we are insulated from risks associated with changes in consumer demand or preferences across categories. Home sales have slowed. An economist's outlook point to further reduction through this year. However, home equity values remain strong, which is good for our business. Consumers are investing in their homes and backlogs for home project-related spend is still above pre-pandemic levels. Our business has been reflecting the same trend. Sales growth in our home improvement categories have been outpacing the overall company average. During the second quarter, these categories continued to deliver positive sales growth. And as consumers start spending more on home products, again, we are well positioned to meet demand and capture market share. Next slide. Our second brand pillar is Smart Value. We strive to offer the highest quality products at the best price. Our high-low promotional model is intentions and critical to attracting and retaining customers. As is widely acknowledged during the second quarter, the industry faced elevated competitive promotional pressure due to a mismatch of inventory and demand. Although our asset-light model did not directly expose us to mark down our liquidation pressures, we did have to navigate through a challenging environment to deliver Smart Value to our customers and maintain margins, and we did so successfully. We held our pricing tenants in line with past quarters. Unlike some of our competitors, we didn't need to liquidate any excess owned inventory, nor will we need to do so in the future. Our Smart Value proposition is not only important to our strategy, it is something our customers count on. We delivered the second largest Memorial Day customer in company history. This is impressive considering we were comparing against the largest quarterly sales volume in Overstock's history. It is also important to compare key sales events in 2022 due to the major change in consumer sentiment since the start of the year. Sales on Memorial Day this year were larger than President's Day in February, which, as a reminder, was our largest on record. Considering a consumer backdrop, it was significantly weaker in May than February. It shows that our event-driven strategy continues to work, and our Smart Value offering is resonating. We continue to do well with our mobile app adoption, which has enabled us to improve customer engagement. Our mobile app is now our strongest conversion in customer retention platform. During the second quarter, we saw app downloads increased 85% sequentially, on top of 54% sequential growth last quarter. We are now capitalizing on this larger installed base of mobile app users. In addition to our popular app exclusive coupons to deliver additional value to our customer, we've revived game-based strategies like auto offers and started using the notification plan more effectively. These strategies have been delivering results. Our mobile app return on our ad spend has been higher year-over-year during key events, making us more efficient with marketing spend. We believe we still have a long runway for growing mobile app adoption and continue to use it to direct strategies for further growth. Next slide. Our third brand pillar is Easy Delivery & Support. Our asset-light supply chain continues to be a competitive advantage, positioning us favorably in the industry relative to others. Our supply chain is broad and distributed with a vast and growing partner network. This reduces single-source risks, shipping bottlenecks and supply chain kinks. We own almost no inventory, protecting us from markdown or clearance risk. This unique supply chain model is a major advantage in the current environment. Our focus on delivering on our financial recipe card is appreciated by our partners, who, with greater and greater frequency remark, that it is important for them to do business with a company that makes money and who their asset backed lenders know we'll pay them quickly. As a result, existing partners who were historically underrepresented on our website are increasing allocations to us. And we're broadening our partner base with new partners interested in working with us, particularly since we are now 100% home-focused. There is a reason we refer to our suppliers as partners. We have an unparalleled commitment to them, which was fully evident in the second quarter when their inventory piled up in their warehouses. There are other channels canceled orders, and they faced significant markdown pressure. During the quarter, we supported our partners by providing an improved promotional pricing tools to enable them to sell through their other inventory items and position their inventory in our marketing campaigns to help move it quickly. Our unique [ flagship ] model enabled them to eliminate costs tied to warehouse logistics. Many use our negotiated carrier rates to lower shipment costs. And of course, we continue to pay them on a regular time line, even as we navigated a challenging top line environment. The faith that our partners have put in our partnership goes a long way towards successful achievement of our long-term vision. Next slide. Our mantra is sustainable, profitable market share growth. Growth is and always will be a key component of our business, one which we spend a significant amount of time strategizing and working to achieve. This slide shows several key drivers that are critical to support continued growth, something we are working to jump start. Our differentiated business model is allowing us to pursue these growth drivers, despite headwinds in the overall macro and competitive environments. These growth drivers are not capital or resource-intensive. Other than limiting what would be inefficient marketing spend, our focus on profitability is not hampering the progress of any of our growth drivers. We are focused on these strategies while continuing to be disciplined in managing expenses. We continue to add SKUs to increase our home association, is sharper on pricing, something that was greatly tested during the second quarter, effectively leverage our mobile app and make shopping easier for our customers. With the move to 100% home now complete, we are pursuing initiatives to reposition the brand as a prominent retailer of furniture and home furnishings with a long runway for growth. Moving to a quick reminder on our Canada efforts. As we've shared before, our goal is for Canada to grow to 10% of our U.S. revenue over the next several years. During 2022, however, we do not expect our Canadian business to meaningfully contribute to our stated financial targets as we carefully develop it, to scale effectively and serve as the right template for future international expansion opportunities. Right now the team is focused on enhancing the Canadian customer experience by increasing products locally available to ship from Canada and improving price competitiveness to enhance the end-to-end customer journey to increase conversion. Marketing is focusing on bringing additional traffic to the Canadian website in showcasing our unique brand pillars. These efforts are regressing steadily and positioning Overstock for long-term success in the Canadian market. Next slide. We continue to direct our strategies to drive sustainable, profitable market share growth within our financial recipe card targets, even as the online market contracts them. Overstock has opportunities to gain market share as we win brand association with home. Our annual targets for 2022 and beyond remain unchanged. These include top line outpacing the market to deliver market share growth under various macro scenarios, driven by our advanced technology, our unwavering focus on the customer and our inherently adaptable business model. Gross margin is in the 22% range so that we can deliver on Smart Value, acknowledging these may fluctuate slightly from quarter-to-quarter. Disciplined G&A and tech spending to deliver operating leverage. I will note our ability to drive leverage during the first half of 2022 was limited by the difficult sales environment. We will, of course, continue to manage these expenses carefully. And we continue to do our best to deliver adjusted EBITDA margin in the mid-single digits on an annual basis. Next slide. I will now discuss a few updates on the Medici Ventures Fund. Next slide. It has been over a year since we handed over full control of the day-to-day operations and investment decisions of the Medici portfolio to Pelion Venture Partners. As you will recall, during 2020, as we pivoted our focus to strategies aimed at driving sustainable, profitable market share growth for the furniture and home furnishing e-commerce business, we went through a rigorous process to evaluate options through the Medici portfolio. Remember, most of the Medici portfolio companies were and still are an early seed in Series A investing stage and require an experienced venture capital style operator to get them to a level to realize the best financial outcome for all stakeholders. After considering multiple professional venture firms, we chose to partner with Pelion, a firm which has decades of experience in helping disruptive technology companies scale and exit successfully. We structured the fund so that the better Pelion does with the portfolio company exits. Both Overstock shareholders and Pelion will see the benefits. Pelion has proven to be a great choice to actively help advance the portfolio of companies' respective businesses and allow the Overstock management team to remain focused on the furniture and home furnishings e-commerce business. Pelion is demonstrating its prowess in elevating companies to the next level. Recent examples are the strong leadership additions at tZERO and Bitt. In June, tZERO added 2 new members to its Board, Edward Marshall, Former Senior Vice President and Founding Chief Technology Officer of Intercom Metal Exchange; and Michael Blaugrund, Chief Operating Officer of the New York Stock Exchange. tZERO should benefit from their combined technology and financial services background. We remain excited about the future of tZERO. Bitt has also strengthened its executive team. Last week, Bitt announced the addition of the Criteo Central Bank digital currency, or CBDC founding team, including Jim Shinn and Erik Bethel. The Criteo team has successfully engaged over 12 central banks in Latin America, Africa, Europe and Central Asia advancing their CBDC programs. This team will continue these engagements with this market-leading technology and CBDC product suite. And they have then also added a new Chief Product Officer, Baker Nanduru. These appointments solidified Bitt's market-leading position in the digital currency space and set it up for long-term growth. This digital currency management system is the technology behind most of the live retail CBDC deployments across the world, including launches in Africa and Central America. Bitt has established relationships with an impressive list of partners and associations which enhanced the digital currency experience for everyone within a country's financial ecosystem. I hope everyone has had the chance -- I hope everyone had the chance to attend Medici Day on May 10, hosted by the Pelion team, led by Matt Mosman. Matt has over 30 years of experience with early-stage companies and key relationships in the disruptive technology space that the Medici portfolio can leverage. 6 portfolio companies -- and based on feedback received, attendees appreciated details on the businesses and how the portfolio is pioneering the use of blockchain technology. For those who have not yet had a chance to review the presentation, a replay remains available on our Investor Relations website. I anticipate that the Pelion hosted Medici Day will become an annual event, which is the appropriate cadence given the still early stages of mostly the portfolio of companies. Our partnership with Pelion has an 8-year term. And in my view, there is a lot of good news still to come. Pelion, tZERO and Bitt teams are making good progress. Next slide. I'll now briefly recap the quarter and provide some thoughts before moving to Q&A. Next slide. During the second quarter, we continue to demonstrate our commitment to profitability against a weak consumer backdrop. We also returned cash to our shareholders through share repurchases. Our balance sheet is strong and provides us flexibility in the current macro environment. We believe that the Overstock business model is agile and resilient, reacts well to jolt in the market and consumer behavior and is well positioned to capitalize on opportunities to gain market share. Looking ahead, we continue to increase the breadth and depth of home SKU assortment available on our site, strengthening Overstock's brand association with home. Our focus on Smart Value is unique, especially in times where consumer wallets are under pressure. We are successfully leveraging our mobile app to increase customer engagement. Our supply chain is asset-light and built to support sustainable, profitable market share growth. To wrap up, we like our business model, and we have a strong, adaptable and focused team that is proving it can control the controllables. This is a team that wants to and I believe will win. We like our position in the market and our differentiated model. Now, operator, let's take some questions.