Jonathan Johnson
Analyst · D.A. Davidson
Thanks, Adrianne. Our strong balance sheet certainly gives us more stability and flexibility. I continue to believe our shares are undervalued. However, given the revenue environment over the past 3 months, we conservatively chose to maintain a higher cash balance and positive repurchases. We will be opportunistic in evaluating future share repurchases. In addition, we continuously evaluate strategic M&A opportunities to accelerate growth. During the second quarter, we were in advanced stages of such a deal, the deal that made a lot of business sense in our asset-light business model. However, after thorough due diligence, we ascertain that while the business case was good, the target's operational model and its future investment needs were not currently aligned with our expectations. As a result, we walked away from the transaction. Rest assured, we will diligently scrutinize M&A opportunities to ensure that any potential transaction will be a strategic and operational fit with our long-term business priorities and objectives. Know that we will continue to be prudent in capital deployment to deliver the best outcome for all shareholders. Next slide. Next, I'll provide some key insights into our business and our strategic brand pillars. Next slide, please. We've shared this slide in the past to illustrate the direction of third-party forecast for online sales in the domestic furniture and home furnishings market. It is encouraging to see that the projection for 33% of purchases to be transacted online, especially since the categories comparing against some strong growth from the prior 2 years. Longer term, we still believe that as the market matures, there is sufficient room for online penetration to move higher. The furniture and home furnishings market is large and fragmented, with a total addressable market of $419 billion, based on third-party reporting. Large market provides us with additional opportunities to gain market share, even if online penetration remains unchanged over the near term. As the fourth largest online retailer of home furnishings in the U.S., our smart value brand pillar and strategic focus and strategy focused on increasing the breadth and depth of our home SKU product assortment will help us capture market share. Next slide. We like to show this slide to remind the investment community that Overstock has significant white space available in the quadrant, where home goods expertise meets smart value. This quadrant is the natural and right place for Overstock to compete. We've been strategic about choosing to focus on it. We don't need to leverage outsized debt and/or capital-intensive business models to cast a wider net on either end of the customer value spectrum to drive sales. We believe such a strategy is unsustainable over the longer term, especially during volatile retail business cycles like the one we're in. We see evidence of this with some of our larger competitors who struggle with liquidity and debt financing. Our focus on the white space within our quadrant helps us generate the maximum return on investments. This strategy also influenced our choice of our 6 brand ambassadors. They've been carefully selected for their home-related expertise to amplify Overstock's position in the marketplace. I will now talk to our 3 brand pillars, each of which are key to our continued growth. Next slide. The first brand pillar is product findability. Since the start of 2021, we have doubled our home-only assortment. We have been working with our partners to carry on-trend quality products to meet evolving customer needs. As the outlook for the housing market is blurred by rising mortgage rates, we see the potential for increased home-based products -- projects that should support spend in renovation and home improvement categories like bathroom vanities, where we have seen an uptick already this year. As we look ahead to our first holiday season as a 100% home-based retailer, our customers will be able to find everything they usually look for during this period. This holiday season is expected to be highly competitive. I'm pleased with how the team has positioned Overstock to compete. We are strategically leaning into branded gifting categories like small appliances to capture market share from struggling competitors. We are working with some of the top brands in the industry such as Dyson, KitchenAid, Calphalon, Hoover, Mr. Coffee and [ Oster ] and many others. We are doing this within our asset-light model and carefully managing inventory. We anticipate the relationships we build with these brands during the holiday season will open the door to partnerships with other prestige brands in the future. These brands like that we are now fully focused on home and are more willing to allocate inventory. Another key element of our efforts is the relationships we are building with our customers. We expect that serving their shopping needs during this important time will help us win repeat business in the future. Next slide. Our second brand pillar is smart value. A critical element of our evolution has been the development of pricing competency. We have improved how we establish price assortment relative to competitors, and we have consistently delivered on our core pricing KPIs quarter after quarter. We continue to make steady progress in comparing to competitive page views and are now able to match up to 66% of those views. This is the highest level since we embarked on our pricing initiative. Deep discounts, markdowns and clearance activities by our competitors have not impacted our ability to deliver smart value to our customers and maintained our targeted gross margins. It is almost certain our revenue decline would have been worse if we did not have this capability. Something that gives us confidence in our smart value proposition, is the growth in the order mix of customers and income levels above $100,000. This change coincides with the increase in inflation this year. New customers acquired over the last few quarters are also exhibiting a similar trend. And in fact, the order mix of higher-income new customers is tracking at the highest level since 2019. Simply put, our value proposition is resonating. These new customers are choosing to shop with us, despite having the option to shop at other online and omnichannel home retailers. In a recessionary environment, real value on quality products becomes more important than ever. We are delivering that for our customers while maintaining profitability, which in this economic environment is, we think, quite an achievement. I should point out that while we have seen growth in the mix of orders from higher-income demographics, our smart value still resonates with our current customers. Our app-based customers still younger. Importantly, we continue to see the mobile app grow as a percentage of sales and expect that to continue with the launch of our brand ambassadors. It is our best-performing and fastest-growing sales platform. Any way you look at it, as customers work to stretch their dollar, we are helping them make their dollars go farther. We strive to offer the highest-quality products at the best price. Our high-low promotional model is intentional and critical to attracting and retaining our customers. And our smart value proposition is something our customers depend on and what differentiates us in the marketplace. Successful execution of this brand pillar enabled us to deliver the second largest Labor Day company history and the largest single day of sales in year-to-date 2022. Our customers see that we deliver value across a broad and growing assortment of home products. Next slide. Our third brand pillar is easy delivery and support. As I've said time and again, our asset-light business model is good because we don't have an expensive internal logistics operation with a high fixed cost base or significant owned inventory on our balance sheet. We are always looking for ways to delight our customers and elevate their shopping experience without incurring substantial costs. I'm excited to share that we are working closely with UPS on a digitally led strategy, starting with a pilot in Q4 that will elevate our customer experience. We are launching a pilot program in which returns will now be possible through simpler home pickup options right from the customer's doorstep that don't require reboxing of the product by our customers. Through this pilot, both of our organizations will have the opportunity to better understand customer preferences and enable us to serve up options that align with their day-to-day lives. These post-purchase performance metrics will help us evaluate the end-to-end shopping experience for our customers. Initiatives like this one with UPS can go a long way of generating repeat business from our customers. During the third quarter, we made progress on our logistics and customer care operations to further enhance the customer experience. By the end of Q3, we were able to reduce large item home delivery times by 18% since the start of the quarter. We achieved this by diversifying our third-party large item carrier network, with each new carrier needing to meet our high standards and service levels with -- which we vigilantly monitor and enforce. Another important aspect of post-purchase performance is customers' interaction with our customer care agents and the quality of services we provide. Our customer care productivity improved around 600 basis points during the quarter compared to the first half of 2022. We still have room for further improvement in case closure rates and the quality of service we provide, as we strive to deliver the best end-to-end purchase experience for our customers. Next slide. Our mantra is sustainable, profitable market share growth. Growth is a key component of our business. This slide shows several key drivers that are critical to support continued growth. Our differentiated business model is allowing us to pursue these growth drivers, despite headwinds in the overall macro and competitive environment. These growth drivers are not capital or resource intensive. Other than limiting what would be inefficient marketing spend, our focus on profitability is not hampering the progress of any of our growth drivers. We are focused on these strategies while continuing to be disciplined in managing expenses. Next slide. We continue to direct our strategies to drive sustainable, profitable market share growth within our financial recipe card targets, even as the online market contracts. Overstock has opportunities to gain market share as we increase our brand association with home. Our annual targets remain unchanged. These include top line outpacing the market to deliver market share growth under various macro scenarios, driven by our advanced technology, our unwavering focus on the customer and our inherently adaptable business model. Gross margin is in the 22% range, so that we can deliver on smart value, acknowledging these may fluctuate slightly from quarter-to-quarter and that Q4 is expected to be highly promotional, disciplined G&A and tech spending to deliver operational leverage. Note, our ability to drive leverage on a year-to-date basis has been limited by the difficult sales environment. We will, of course, continue to manage these expenses carefully. And we continue to do our best to deliver adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid-single digit range on an annual basis, something that will admittedly be difficult to do with a still hypercompetitive Q4 in front of us. Next slide. Now I will discuss a few updates on the Medici Ventures Fund. Next slide. Pelion Venture Partners has been a great choice to manage the Medici Ventures Fund as it actively helps advance the portfolio companies' respective businesses to create value for Overstock and its shareholders. I remind our shareholders that Overstock has met its financial obligation to the fund. Some recent developments in the Medici Venture Fund portfolio include: first, tZERO. In August, tZERO completed its strategic funding round that was announced in February of this year. The round is led by Intercontinental Exchange. Overstock invested alongside ICE, the Medici Ventures Fund and other investors. In February, Overstock committed to invest in aggregate an additional $15 million in Series B financing. We funded the first tranche of $7.5 million in February and the second and final tranche in August. Our additional investment shows our commitment to tZERO and the belief in its leadership. Following completion of this funding round, Overstock's combined direct and indirect ownership in tZERO is now around 54%. In other tZERO news, in September, the tZERO platform listed the largest tokenized security offering for XY Labs. In 2018, XY Labs raised $22 million. And with the tZERO listing, those shares are now available to trade in the secondary market. Second, Bitt. This leader in providing central bank digital currency or CBDC solutions, announced that in, one, the 2022 G20 TechSprint global CBDC competition. IDEMIA had partnered with Bitt in this competition that received over 100 submissions from leading fintech firms. Together, Bitt and IDEMIA were able to develop a CBDC solution for offline payments to ensure low-cost access with a variety of easy-to-use payment devices and the best identity management verification available in full compliance with regulatory requirements. This week, it has been a year since Bitt and the Central Bank of Nigeria completed the launch of the eNaira. The project is moving to the next phase of growth, which includes onboarding Nigerian trade and exchange platform, sector-specific tokens for grants and subsidies and programmable payments. Bitt has a bright future. Three, SettleMint. SettleMint has a high-performance low-code platform for blockchain application development that empowers engineering teams to build, integrate and launch applications on Web3 infrastructure. The platform is a full-fledged blockchain platform as a service solution. Medici Ventures first invested in SettleMint in January 2017. Last month, SettleMint closed an oversubscribed up-round funding that was co-led by Molten Ventures and OTB and included other new investors. Closing an up-round against today's difficult venture capital backdrop is an impressive feat. The Medici Ventures Fund also participated in this funding round and now holds about 18% of SettleMint. Overstock did not directly invest in this route. GrainChain. In August, the company was named the AdTech Solution of the Year at the 2022 AdTech Breakthrough Awards. GrainChain pairs the security and traceability of blockchain technology with the efficiency and reliability of self-executing smart contracts to ensure producers get paid quickly as receive immediately tradable titled to commodities and lienholders and other payees are paid first. The GrainChain technology makes the entire supply chain process easier, faster and safer for our [ customers ]. Recently, as CEO and Founder, Luis Macias was recognized as one of the Top 100 CEOs in the AdTech space . In August, Latin American marketplace, Mercado Libre announced the launch of its own token, the Mercado token. Ripio is the developer of this token. The coin rewards user for their loyalty at Mercado Libre and can be used on the marketplace and is tradable via Mercado Libre's fintech platform. I remain confident that the Medici Ventures Fund will prove itself to be extremely valuable to Overstock. Next slide. I'll now briefly recap the quarter and provide some final thoughts before moving to Q&A. To wrap up, during the third quarter, we remained profitable, stabilized our top line decrease and improved our home-only revenue trend despite a weak consumer backdrop. Our balance sheet is healthy, giving us real flexibility in the current macro environment. We continue to increase the breadth and depth of home assortment available on the site. We've embarked on a national brand campaign, supported by 6 home-focused brand ambassadors that should help us in our efforts to strengthen Overstock's brand association with home. Our focus on smart value is important, especially in times where consumers' wallets are under pressure. We are successfully leveraging our mobile app to increase customer engagement. The Overstock business model is agile and resilient, reacts well to jolts in the market and consumer behavior and can capitalize on opportunities to gain market share. Before we take questions, let me note that I recently hit my 20-year anniversary at Overstock. During my tenure, I have worked with and learned from many talented colleagues. I'm thankful to the entire team for helping build a company that is strongly positioned for many years to come. Now operator, let's take some questions.