Jonathan Johnson
Analyst · Piper Sandler
Thank you, Adrianne, for highlighting our healthy balance sheet. Unlike others, we are not highly leveraged. I'm encouraged by how the team continues to execute against our home strategy and maintain strong financial discipline, generating profits quarter-after-quarter. We continue to see that our opportunity lies in increasing Overstock's brand association with home. The home-only customer metrics and financial performance that Adrianne shared with you, validate just that. And I like our strong balance sheet with almost no debt and a good amount of dry powder for strategic opportunities. In my view, many of the headwinds should be temporary as we steer the company towards long-term success. I remain optimistic about Overstock's future -- about the future for Overstock. Slide 16, please. Next I'll provide some key insights into our business, including where our focused home strategy is paying off and where we are targeting and driving growth. Next slide. Overstock is the fourth largest online retailer of home furnishings in the United States. Based on third-party forecasts, about a 1/3 of furniture and home furnishings purchases in the U.S. are expected to be transacted online during 2022. This continued migration online, combined with a growing and highly fragmented total addressable market of $390 billion and our planned growth in home SKU assortments means there is significant opportunity for Overstock to gain market share. Slide 18, please. I'd like to show this slide to remind investors that Overstock has significant white space available in the quadrant where home goods meets -- home goods expertise meets smart value. This quadrant is the right place for Overstock. We have been strategic about choosing to focus on it. Our target customers, those who seek smart value or simply the highest quality and style for their dollar, already have a greater propensity to shop with us. We purposefully play to our natural strength. These customers represent roughly 40% of the market. Overstock has ample growth opportunity in this space and with these target customers. As I mentioned earlier, our target customers seek smart value and when wallets are stretched, more consumers turn into savvy shoppers seeking smart value. As in the past, I will now talk to each of our 3 brand pillars, each of which are key to our continued growth and help define Overstock's customer value proposition. Slide 19, please. As we continue to execute our home focused strategy, the merchandising team is executing on specific goals to grow both breadth and depth of home assortment on our platform. In the first quarter, the merchandising team exceeded its goals. 97% of our sales were in home categories at the end of the quarter. We continue to add new SKUs and onboard new partners to our platform. We expect Overstock's growing brand association with home will translate into a bigger share of customer wallet, ultimately driving market share gains. Let me share an example with you, which gives us reason to believe that our home focused strategy is the right one and that it's working. Mattresses is one of our fastest-growing categories. Entering 2022, we worked with our partners to expand the breadth and depth of the mattress assortment available on our website. At the same time, we've been improving category navigation, intuitive browsing and product content, including better photos and more robust descriptions to enhance the overall customer experience. These efforts drove positive year-over-year revenue growth in the mattress category. And based on third-party data, we believe this translated into market share gains for Overstock in this category. This is how we win. This execution plays right into the strengths of our unique business model. Our capable merchandising team was able to focus and deliver this value-generating result by leveraging our asset-light model requiring no additional capital requirements or inventory purchases. Slide 20, please. Our second brand pillar is smart value. We strive to offer the highest quality products at the best price. Our promotional model is intentional and critical to attracting and retaining customers. In the past, I've shared with you the expertise we have developed to deliver strong performance in our key shopping events. This continued in the first quarter of 2022. And we continue to do well with the mobile app. During the quarter, mobile app downloads increased 54% sequentially versus the fourth quarter of 2021 that had included record performance over the Cyber 5 period. This 54% growth was on top of the 80% fourth quarter increase we highlighted on our last call. Customers love our app exclusive coupons, which help drive traffic to our highest order value, conversion and retention platform, the mobile app. This execution helped us deliver on the largest Presidents Day in the company's history. We believe our smart value tenant continues to resonate not only our repeat customers, but also those that are new to Overstock. New customers are buying furniture and home furnishings with higher order values. In fact, our internal data shows an 1,100 basis points higher average order value for new home customers compared to the company average for transactions measured over the last 12 months. As we continue to make online shopping and navigation easier, add new home SKUs and enhance our overall customer experience, we expect to attract additional new customers. Now let me share some thoughts on the inflationary environment that burdens the overall customer base. As Adrianne shared with you, our year-over-year improvement in AOV was largely driven by mix shift and to a much lesser extent by cost increases resulting from inflation. We believe our pricing strategy benefits everyone that shops on Overstock and they can be rest assured they are not overpaying. We continue to work with our partners to limit price increases in response to higher costs. I see significant opportunity for Overstock to attract new customers and even reactivate customers back into our ecosystem. We expect these customers to appreciate and react as we deliver smart value to them, especially with rising inflation. While consumer spending on discretionary goods and services is normalizing, we also see a scenario where inflated travel costs and higher gasoline prices would limit demand for their services. As a result, family is choosing to spend time at home on staycations may increase. We believe that this behavior would benefit our category and, in particular, Overstock given our smart value offerings. Slide 21, please. Our third brand pillar is easy delivery and support. Our supply chain continues to be a competitive advantage, positioning us favorably in the industry relative to others. As a reminder, our supply chain is broad and distributed with a vast partner network that reduces single-source risks, shipping bottlenecks and supply chain kinks. We don't pressure our partners to lock their inventory in our distribution center. We own almost no inventory and can flex our distribution center footprint easily. As I shared earlier, Overstock ranks fourth among online retailers of home furnishings in the United States. We've been able to achieve this market share position while delivering on our profitability targets. We think this is being recognized by our partners who with greater and greater frequency remark that it is important for them to do business with a company that makes money. Our focus on delivering on our financial recipe card means less variability in cost and pricing for our partners. This helps them in their inventory allocation decisions and capital investment plans for their manufacturing facilities. As a result, existing partners who were historically underrepresented on our site are now increasing allocations to us and potential new partners are showing a keen interest in working with us. This is a validation that our strategy to move out of non-home categories is the right one and will continue to increase our brand association with home. In fact, the mattress market share gains, I mentioned earlier, are a testament to our growing recognition among home goods partners. While they have a myriad of retailers they work with, they continue to choose Overstock to drive their growth now and into the future. Slide 22, please. Our mantra is sustainable, profitable market share growth. Growth is a key component of our business, one of which, as I have mentioned before, we spent a significant amount of time strategizing. In fact, our employee homecoming event in early April, our growth drivers were the key themes of many breakout sessions. This slide includes several key drivers that we feel are critical to support continued growth. I will comment on these drivers, focusing at the end on our Canada expansion efforts. There continues to be a big opportunity to increase Overstock's brand association with home. Our focused strategy is being recognized and attracting new and underpenetrated partners who want to work with us. We've increased and we'll continue to increase the breadth and depth of our home SKU assortment. This should help Overstock enhance its relevancy for the core home customer, providing an avenue to drive further market share gains. The merchandising team is significantly improving how we manage categories. This is something we have needed to do and we are making good progress. Growing mobile app adoption is a key focus area. It helps us market more effectively and improve customer retention. The app is underpinning our successful event-driven strategy. Repeat customers continue to account for a large share of our revenue mix, and we are looking at ways to increase customer attention even further. From a loyalty standpoint, Club O membership continues to perform at its highest level in our history. We are thrilled to welcome Angela Hsu as our new Chief Marketing Officer. She started just over a month ago, and I look forward to her contributions to optimize our marketing spend and grow the Overstock brand. Following her appointment, the executive team led by our President, Dave Nielsen is in a strong position to deliver long-term success with talented leaders across each area of the business. Our efforts to improve our website are ongoing. Product findability and easy navigation continue and make a notable difference for our customers. Last quarter, we highlighted Canada as our key focus area for 2022. We remain big believers in the Canadian market and see large long-term opportunities for market share growth in the region. Our goal is for Canada to grow to 10% of our U.S. revenue over the next several years. During 2022, however, we do not expect our Canadian business to meaningfully contribute to our stated financial targets as we carefully develop it, to scale effectively and serve as a template for future international expansion opportunities. The team has focused on improving the Canadian customer experience by increasing local availability of assortment and improving price competitiveness to improve the end-to-end customer journey and increase conversion. Marketing is focused on bringing additional traffic to the website and showcasing our unique brand pillars to the Canadian customer. These efforts are positioning Overstock for long-term success in the Canadian market. We believe we are well positioned with a great business model and many levers to pull to continue to gain market share and do so profitably. Slide 23, please. We continue to direct our strategic we continue to direct our strategies to drive sustainable, profitable market share growth within our financial recipe card targets. Overstock has opportunities to gain market share as we increase our brand association with home. Our targets for 2022 and beyond remain unchanged. This includes top line outpacing the market to deliver market share growth under various macro scenarios driven by our advanced technology, our unwavering focus on the customer and our inherently adaptable business model. Gross margins in the 22% range, so we can deliver on smart value, acknowledging these may fluctuate slightly quarter-to-quarter. Disciplined G&A and tech spending to continue to drive operating leverage. During the first quarter, our ability to deliver leverage was impacted by higher share-based compensation expenses in a challenging revenue environment and adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid-single digits range as we delight our customers and deliver on our vision of Dream Homes for All. Slide 24, please. Now we will discuss a couple of updates on the Medici Ventures fund. Next slide. We're excited about the growth opportunities ahead for tZERO under its new leadership. The prior Chief Strategy Officer of Intercontinental Exchange, David Goone took the helm at tZERO last month. I am confident in David's ability to use his rich knowledge of and deep connections within capital markets and exchanges to accelerate growth for tZERO. The team recently celebrated its leadership in the digital innovation and the strategic funding round led by ICE by ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. As a reminder, Pelion Ventures will be holding a Medici Ventures Day on May 10, 2022, to highlight some of the fund's top portfolio companies. This event is open to all, and we will share registration details soon. At this event, tZERO, Bitt, GrainChain, Spera, Ripio and Watchdog Capital will make presentations. Pelion has also arranged for former CFTC Chairman, Chris Giancarlo to speak about the industry. It should be a great event, particularly for those of you wanting to know more about our blockchain portfolio. To wrap up our discussion of the Medici Ventures Fund, I am pleased with our Pelion is acting as the fund's general partner, actively helping many of the portfolio companies advance their respective businesses and thus allowing the Overstock management team to focus on the e-commerce business. I remain bullish on blockchain technology, and many of the companies in the Medici Ventures' fund, particularly tZERO under David Goone's leadership with ICE's investment. Slide 26, please. I'll now briefly recap the quarter and provide some thoughts for the rest of the year, and then we'll move to Q&A. Next slide. During the first quarter, we managed to hold on to our market share in line with the fourth quarter of 2021, despite a larger deceleration in year-over-year revenue performance. The team's unwavering commitment to profitability helped us deliver adjusted EBITDA margin at the low end of our stated target. Because of our healthy balance sheet, we were able to return our -- return cash to our shareholders through the share repurchase program. We believe that the Overstock business model is resilient, reacts well to jolts in the market and consumer behavior and is well positioned to capitalize on opportunities to gain market share. Looking ahead, we continue to increase the breadth and depth of home SKUs available on our site, strengthening the Overstock brand association with home. Our focus on smart value is resonating with customers, especially in times where consumer wallets are under pressure. We are successfully executing an event-driven strategy, supported by our global mobile app adoption. Our supply chain is agile, asset-light and built to support sustainable, profitable market share growth. Before we take your questions, I would like to provide some thoughts on the rest of the year. The uncertain macro and geopolitical environment is impacting consumer sentiment and putting pressure on household budgets. This is ultimately impacting discretionary spend and is reflected in our lower-than-expected year-to-date sales trends. As a result, it has become increasingly difficult to predict our revenue performance for the year. Thus, like we did during the height of the pandemic, for the time being, we are backing off our prior revenue guidance and not giving revenue growth estimates at this time. That said, while the broader market direction is unknown, we believe our unique business model positions us favorably to take market share under almost any macro situation. If inflation runs rapid causing the industry to shrink, we are confident we will shrink less and thus take market share. If the administration and Congress decide on more stimulus checks, supporting discretionary spend and causing the industry to grow, we are confident we will grow more and thus take market share. We like our business model and think it adjusts well to jolts in the market. You should know that our mindset is to fight every day to grow market share over the long term and come the hell or high water, we've experienced over the last 2 years or may experience going forward, we intend to do just that. Taking into consideration all the uncertainty we face, we still plan to be profitable in line with our stated targets, delivering adjusted EBITDA margin in the mid-single-digit range. Now operator, let's take some questions. Operator, we're ready for questions.