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AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU)

Q2 2017 Earnings Call· Mon, Aug 21, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen and welcome to AngloGold Ashanti’s First Half 2017 Results Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions at the end of today’s discussion. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Stewart Bailey. Please go ahead, sir.

Stewart Bailey

Analyst

Thank you, Judith. And welcome everybody to our first half financial and operating results. We appreciate you making the time. And I’d ask you please to go to the front of your presentation, which you’ll find on our website, and there is a Safe Harbor disclaimer. Right at the front, it has very important information. We’d urge you to read it carefully. Please get back to us if you have any question as far as that goes. We have a full slate today with our executive team and talking about the various aspects of the business. I’m going to hand over to Venkat for some introductory remarks.

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst

Thank you, Stewart. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Before we move to the results for the first half of 2017, let’s revisit our overarching strategy which has since 2013 remained consistent. We continue to be guided by our five key business objectives and how they can support our central strategic goal of delivering sustainable improvements to cash flow and returns. This is especially relevant today, as we provide a progress report on our plans to invest in delivering better quality production, improving margins, extending mine lives and shaping our international portfolio for the long-term. We’re also taking steps to address losses of some of our older operations in South Africa in order to ensure the viability of our core assets shift. Chris Sheppard will speak more about that shortly. This internal focus has been fundamental to our strategy over the past four years when we directed our efforts yielding opportunity that lies within our pipeline was optimizing our existing portfolio, improving our cost structures whilst fortifying our balance sheet. We continued to build our ability to withstand gold price shocks and to weather the challenges that tend to crop up, as you manage a globally diverse portfolio of long life gold assets such as ours, whilst executing on the self-funded, quick payback options that exist within our portfolio. Now, turning on to slide five on safety. This is the proudest element of our results for the half year being our exemplary safety record to-date. At the end of June, we had passed more than 283 days without a fatality in the group and for the first time ever, we logged three back-to-back calendar quarters with no fatal accident at our operations. The achievement is also more noteworthy when you consider that at the end of the first half of the…

Chris Sheppard

Analyst

Thank you, Venkat. Good day, ladies and gentlemen. If you can turn to slide 12 in the pack. The South Africa region has now accumulated more than 7 million fatal-free shifts, including Kopanang, which reached 1 million fatality-free shifts last month and Moab Khotsong which passed 2 million fatality-free shifts during the reporting period. In fact, at the end of June, Moab registered 21 straight months without a workplace fatality. These are impressive stats but we cannot declare victory yet in this important aspect of our business. We are as focused as ever on pursuing the implementation of our safe production strategy which we launched at the end of 2015, following, if you recall, a particularly challenging period of safety. A huge amount of effort has gone into entrenching integrated workplace planning, workplace management routines and workplace service strategies. Leadership accountability remains critical for effective execution of the safe production strategy and delivery of the required outcome. So, at this stage, we are certainly proud of the achievement but definitely not satisfied. Turning to slide 13. Our core assets operated in line with plans during quarter two, clawing back quarter one underperformance and delivering strong results. We experienced continued challenges at TauTona and the hard rock surface sources units. In the Vaal River, Moab Khotsong production was up 3% year-on-year due to improved throughputs and face time. And in the West Wits, Mponeng mined according to plan with localized lower grade areas, which resulted in lower year-on-year production and higher costs. Production improvements at Mine Waste Solutions resulted from reclaiming higher grades, and this has partially offset the disappointingly low grade of some of our marginal ore dumps, as well as plant availability constraints in the ore receiving sections with limited mill availability due to plant shutdowns for a pit.…

Ludwig Eybers

Analyst

Thank you, Chris. Good day ladies and gentlemen. Turning to slide 17, I’m pleased to report that our international portfolio again delivered strong performances with increased production from all our operations in the second quarter relative to the first. That trend is encouraging and one that we are working on extending into the second half of the year, which as Venkat has pointed out, we’ll see a very strong fourth quarter at key operations. Looking out for year, it’s the fact that year-on-year despite stronger currencies and ever present mining inflation as well as the higher cash cost at Kibali, we’ve managed to contain our overall increase in cash cost to less than 5%. The increase in all-in sustaining cost was driven mainly by higher sustaining CapEx. We saw exceptionally strong operating performances over this period from Siguiri, Iduapriem and of course Tropicana, which I’ll talk to you in a lot of more detail in a minute. Siguiri in particular was a knockout performer during the first half. On the back of commencement of mining at new Seguelen pit, which came with the anticipated increase in grades, we also saw better grade performances from Geita as well as we’ve expected. Kibali has moved on from last year’s plant commissioning challenges and now moving towards a ramp up of the underground, which will allow it to fully show and embrace its potential. Graham has more on that in a moment too. The Americas also showed improved performances from Mineração where underground tonnages improved and at CdS where the gains are driven by better plant performance. Moving to slide 18. As I mentioned earlier, we have continued to maintain margins over the extended period of time, which boosted our focus on operational efficiencies through our operational excellence program. The bars for quarter…

Graham Ehm

Analyst

Thanks, Ludwig. Good morning, everyone. I’ll start on slide 23. Today, I’ll make comments on the progress at Kibali; the progress on the Siguiri hard rock project; I’ll provide an update on our thinking around Obuasi; and share some exploration results that are proximal to Sunrise Dam. At Kibali, the focus is on the completion of the shaft materials handling system and commissioning of the automated loading system, enabling ore hoisting in quarter four this year. Once completed, underground production will increase to 3.5 million tonnes per annum. Grade control, stope design and the build up and drilled and broken stalks is on track to enable this ramp up. Apart from the construction of the third hydropower station at Azambi, this will complete the construction of the Kibali project that’s been in progress for the few years. Then 2018, Kibali will be producing at a rate of 760,000 ounces per annum. You will recall the low recovery issues in 2016 with four additional concentrate fine grinding mill and the expansion of the pump-cell circuit has been commissioned. Plant recoveries have improved substantially and are now at or above design. The process plant is operating very well with good run time and above nameplate capacity. The second hydropower station at Ambarau was commissioned earlier in the year, lifting hydro capacity to 32 megawatts. The third and final hydropower station, Azambi will be commissioned late next year and it will increase hydro capacity of 42 megawatts. On the next slide and still on Kibali, underground exploration is delivering very good results. As shown on the left hand side of the slide, drilling of the up plunge extension and central sections of the 3,000 load has added approximately 360,000 ounces of 4 grams. [Ph] Drilling at the down plunge has commenced and caught…

Christine Ramon

Analyst

Thank you, Graham. Good day, everyone. We have delivered a solid operational performance, reflecting good recovery in Q2. Our cost performance reflects our planned capital reinvestment plan as well as the impact of stronger currencies. Finally, our balance sheet remains strong and positions the Company well to fund its Brownfield reinvestment strategy and weather the current volatility. Moving to slide 30. Our focus remains on improving margins despite currency headwinds and lower grades anticipated for this year. The all-in sustaining cost margin has significantly narrowed H1 to 13% due to the planned higher capital spend signaled earlier this year which was exacerbated by stronger currencies. We will continue to focus on improving margins through our operational excellence program, which is what Ludwig referred to which looks to innovative ways to improve efficiencies and enhance recovery as well as our targeted investments to improve the portfolio mix. Slide 31. Despite the marginal increase in the gold price and improvement in the overall production for the six months, our cash costs and all-in sustaining costs reflect the impact of stronger currencies, inflation and our significant capital reinvestment program. Adjusted EBITDA was impacted by the one off silicosis provision of $63 million, contributing to the lower adjusted EBITDA margin of 30%. Finance costs are $16 million lower than last year, benefiting from Group cash optimization and the settlement of the high yield bond last year. However, free cash flow has declined due to planned higher CapEx, stronger currencies and the working capital lockup in Continental Africa which I will elaborate on later in the presentation. Free cash outflow in Q2, however, improved to $42 million compared to the outflow of $119 million in Q1, largely on the back of improved production. Slide 32. The half year adjusted headline earnings have been impacted by…

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst

Thank you, Christine. So, after that detailed presentation, please allow me to recap. We are executing our strategy of realizing the options that exist within our portfolio. In Brazil, for example, our exploration work is looking very promising indeed and we are confident of extending mine life there, whilst our investment in increased oil reserve development will yield future benefit to the productivity of those operations. Continental Africa is a hive of activity. Our investment will see production ramp ups coming through from Siguiri, Kibali and Geita, with significant latent potential still come from Obuasi and Sadiola once we have reached agreement with our host governments there. Iduapriem continues to tick along very well. In South Africa, we are investing in the significant restructure of our South African capacity, stripping out loss-making production and focusing on a core set of cash generative assets that we have proved can be operated safely. In Australia, leading edge optimization work has turned Tropicana from a short life low margin operation into a true Tier 1 asset with world-class margins and more upside to be realized through the Long Island project. Sunrise Dam remains an excellent regional option but looks more attractive with each hole drilled on site and on the neighboring tenements. Together, these two operations remain one of Australia’s most attractive gold packages. We have advanced all of this work in a self-funded, self-executed package of projects that are on-budget and on-schedule and are underpin by solid balance sheet and appropriate overhead structures, given our operational base. We will continue to look for latent value in the business and take steps to realize it, whilst keeping our eyes firmly on the fact that we are careful custodians of our shareholders’ capital. In conclusion, we are pleased with the first half operating performance despite a slow start to the year and are confident in our ability to meet full year guidance. We have a clear-eyed view of the fact that as I’ve said many times before, mining is indeed a long-term game. And as managers of the world’s largest emerging market gold producer, we need to take a long view in managing some of our current volatility whilst keeping a tight rein on capital. For the remainder of the year, we’ll be focusing our efforts on, first, continuing our strong safety performance; second, completing the restructure of our SA assets to ensure a vibrant cash generative business for the longer term; third, continuing to execute on advancing our high return Brownfield’s projects; engaging with our host governments and jurisdiction where we see significant long-term potentially; and finally, further enhancing the portfolio which should result in improving free cash flow trends across the business. With that, I’m happy to take questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And we have a question from David Haughton of CIBC World Markets.

David Haughton

Analyst

Good morning, Venkat and team. Thank you for the update and taking this question. Venkat, on to Tanzania, you had mentioned in your introductory comments that you are seeking a dialogue with the government. Does that mean that you’ve not engaged with discussions with them as yet, and are you relying more on the arbitration process to be able to get a resolution?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst

David thanks for that question. We have actually engaged with the government. In fact, multiple people within the government, in terms of the regulators, that includes the Mines Department that includes the Tanzanian Revenue Authority; we’ve also engaged up to the level of the Vice President. We are seeking an audience with the President and his nominated advisors in Tanzania. We’re waiting for a response in that regard. And to answer your question, no, we’re not just relying or waiting for the arbitration. Obviously, it’s important to protect the rights given under our mine development agreement but we are also seeking an audience with the team appointed by the President to basically understand how these new laws impact on our mine development agreement. And it’s really in that context where we are seeking that audience.

David Haughton

Analyst

And have you had a sense that there is any position of middle ground here are or are they taking a very firm line?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst

Based on the interactions we have had so far, we can’t see any definitive view in terms of whether they are taking a hard line on us. And we’ve got to wait for the dialogue to happen with the government. But the assets and the mine is operation normally. Our employees are also not subject to any sort of harassment or so on. So, in that regard, the asset is operating normally.

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay. Over to another jurisdiction that seems to have some good news heading your way over to Ghana with Obuasi. What requirements are there from your point of view to proceed with the restart plan? What are you waiting for and what you need?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst

Okay. What we are really seeking from the government is broadly a range of agreements. The first one is the reclamation security agreement. And as Graham outlined, that has actually been assigned, and he has covered that in his presentation. That basically provides a lock-in in terms of the historical environmental liabilities within the numbers provided for in our books. So that is actually being taken the actual approval process in terms of permits and so on, is going through its normal course. The second area where we are seeking is in respect of the investment development agreements. And the investment development agreement has to actually cover the fiscal and the financial framework for the project and certainly that covers areas like unutilized capital allowances being brought forward and used, what terms of [ph] fiscal taxes and royalties et cetera are applicable and so on, and those discussions are at an advanced stage. And the last area is conformation around security, physical security for the mine so that the illegal mining that happens doesn’t actually happen again. Now, we are getting good traction from all sources within the ministries here, whether it’s the finance ministry, the ministry of mines, the ministry of environment et cetera. What we are waiting for is for these agreements to be agreed by the ministers and by the cabinet and then it has to go to parliament for approval. And then, at that point, the project becomes one which we can actually take to the Board because it’s got all of the consents and all of the approvals in place, and we’d then need to get the permitting that is needed to basically get the project restarted. Obviously, how we fund the project and the total CapEx asked is going to be a critical component of that.

David Haughton

Analyst

All right. And…

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst

You are correct, David. It’s certainly this jurisdiction has had quite a lot of positive tailwind coming our way and it’s sort of general within the economy we are seeing here. And with regard to Obuasi, we are keeping all of the options open in that regards.

David Haughton

Analyst

Just to follow-up on that investment agreement. Does that include a standstill of the fiscal arrangement, so that there is no shifting ground going forward?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst

That’s broadly correct. But there would be certain variations in terms of specific terms where we’ll need to accommodate the request of the government. So, it won’t be a blanket stability agreement. We have justified what we want and why we want it and for what period. So, it will be tailor-made in that regard.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Patrick Mann of Deutsche Bank

Patrick Mann

Analyst

Hi, guys. Good afternoon. I just wanted to follow up on the working capital outflow of a $165 million. So, I know you flagged that year-on-year the VAT receivables were I think $61 million outflow. I am just -- but if I look kind of from the end of December till end of June, it doesn’t look like that’s a big outflow, it’s about flat. So, just what is $165 million in the first half, what’s driving that?

Christine Ramon

Analyst

Okay. So, thanks, Patrick. It’s Christine here. So, in the first half, that $165 million movement is broken down between trade receivables which includes an increase in VAT receivables that amounts to about $95 million, inventory movements of about $22 million and trade payables of about $48 million. I think certainly when you look at the first half movement, because in my slides, I spoke to year-on-year movement -- so if you look at your first half movement as it relates to the trade receivables, we did see increases in VAT. I think specifically, the Geita which amounts to about $24 million and Siguiri -- that increases because of the power plant expenditure, so this VAT relating to that, I mean the Patagonian rebates, we actually -- we see movement in the reclassification of the import duty rebates between current and non-current, so that was about $30 million. I think the movements that we saw in trade payables in itself, relates more to the power plant at Geita. Clearly, 80% of that expenditure is being competed but there’s been some trade predictive movements related to that and otherwise there’s been normal payments in Brazil relating to -- sorry, normal trade predictive movements is Brazil which relates to that. So, I think if you have to look by and large, your first half increase with exception of the VAT relating to Geita, it was about $24 million; the balance we do expect to see the normal reversal sort of coming through in the second half. I mean, the early portion is we have seen positive movements on the Argentinean import duties, but I can’t predict the timing of when we are going to be recovering the rest but we’ve seen $5 million coming through in the past period.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We have a follow-up question from David of CIBC World Markets.

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay. So, thank you for fielding my question once again. Going over to Tropicana, very interested to see the potential, not only for Long Island but also expansion. Just wondering as far as that expansion is concerned, what kind of costs and timing would you anticipate for the second ball mill and where could that take you to as far as throughput goes.

Ludwig Eybers

Analyst

David, it’s Ludwig speaking. So, the second ball mill -- we are at the looking 5 megawatt ball mill which is roundabout $12 million. So, it’s about small investment and it’s a very short playback period. And we are looking at roundabout fourth quarter next year for implementation.

David Haughton

Analyst

And we could take your throughput 2…

Ludwig Eybers

Analyst

Well, it looks like it will be $8.2 million -- more importantly, it’s coming at the finer grind, which gives you a higher recovery. So, around 2% is covered. [Ph]

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay. So, that would get you up around 92% maybe kind of mark?

Ludwig Eybers

Analyst

Yeah, very closely.

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay. That sounds quite promising. And then over to Siguiri, I know that quite a bit of this expansion is really to handle the harder material, but I got to say I was surprised by the level of throughput that you had in the quarter it looked particularly strong. And wondering with the efforts that you’ve done there, as you transition more into harder rock, where do you anticipate the throughput to go?

Ludwig Eybers

Analyst

Throughput, we’ve done a lot of continuous improvement over the years in the plant, so the plant is running really well. The material is coming from Siguiri, which is very outside soft material and as we go into transition [ph] material, obviously at that time, you will have the normal float. So, the timing actually looks up very well for this mine, in terms of the expansion project.

David Haughton

Analyst

And could you see yourself sustaining more than 10 million tonnes per annum, post expansion?

Ludwig Eybers

Analyst

Yes, absolutely.

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay. I’ll leave it there. Thank you for allowing me a follow-up question.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Tanya Jakusconek of Scotiabank.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Yes. Good afternoon, everybody. I just wanted to ask about, Venkat, you mentioned we’re going to have a stronger half but then particularly strong Q4. What mines are -- with the exception of Kibali which had a strong Q4. What other mines are expected to have a strong Q4 on the South African mine and Kibali, is that the general trend?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst

Yes. In fact, it would be across Continental African operations that includes Tanzania in terms of Continental Africa; that’s another thing that picks up quite markedly in Q4; Australia again, delivers a stronger Q4 as compared to Q3; and the same goes in respect of our South American operations as well. So, it’s across those regions, where you see the bulk of the pickup come through.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. So, South Africa is not -- we’re expecting even distribution for South Africa in Q3 and Q4?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst

South Africa, in terms of Q4, when we have to wait to see what the impact of the Section 189 process is going to be, because that could have an impact in terms of production from those two mines. So, in terms of South Africa, a very strong Q3, lesser in terms of Q4, depending on the outcome of the 189 process, but we have factored that in, in terms of staying within the guided range. But the bulk of the pickup comes from Continental African operations, American operations and the Australian operations.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. Thank you for that. And did I understand that sustaining capital also is going to be the highest in Q3?

Christine Ramon

Analyst

Well, Tanya, we’ve always seen a catch-up in the sustaining capital spend in Q3 and more in Q4…

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay.

Christine Ramon

Analyst

56% of the total capital spend comes in the second half of the year.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay.

Christine Ramon

Analyst

So that’s also part in all-in sustaining cost guidance us keeping that intact.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. Thank you for that. And then, maybe just on Tanzania, if I could, Venkat. And I’m sorry, I miss this because it faded in and out. But, I think Dave asked that about -- your negotiations with the government on the new legislation that’s been put in place. Have they actually started and I didn’t hear it because it actually faded in and out?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst

No, they have not started. In fact, they have to make the approach in terms of the discussions. So, they have not started in our case at all.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. Are you surprised by that, because it’s been going on for a while?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst

No, we are not. AT the end of the day, from our perspective, we are the largest tax payer in the mining industry. So from that point of view -- and we’ve got a mine development agreement, which is also pretty clear in terms of the provisions, so we are not surprised in that regard at all.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much. Gentlemen, there are no further questions. Do you have any closing comments?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst

No, Judith, other rather than to say thanks everyone for making the time. We’ll talk to you again next quarter.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. On behalf AngloGold Ashanti that concludes this afternoon’s conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.