Earnings Labs

AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU)

Q2 2013 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 7, 2013

$90.73

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the AngloGold Ashanti Second Quarter 2013 Results. [Operator Instructions] Please also note that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Stewart Bailey. Please go ahead, sir.

Stewart Bailey

Analyst

Thanks, Dylan. And everybody welcome to the presentation of AngloGold Ashanti's Q2 Results for the 3 months to June 30. It's a fairly full agenda here today, a slightly longer presentation than usual. If I might just quickly talk to you the flow of events for today, we're going to kick off with CEO, Venkat, as many of you know, will give some introductory remarks and then an overview of the quarter, and some of the initiatives that are currently underway in the business. He'll hand over to Mike O'Hare, who's our Chief Operating Officer of the South African business, who apart [ph] to run large into the Chief Operating Officer of the international assets. Richard Duffy, our CFO, will just give an update on the earnings and then [indiscernible] close with some concluding remarks. As a custom with us, just a quick read-through the Safe Harbor statement. Before we proceed, certain statements contained in this document, other than statements of historical fact, including without limitation, those concerning the economic outlook for the gold-mining industry, expectations regarding gold prices, production, cash costs and other operating results, return on equity, productivity improvements, growth prospects and outlook of AngloGold Ashanti's operations, individually or in aggregate, including achievement of project milestones, commencement and completion of commercial operations of certain of our exploration and production projects and the completion of acquisitions and dispositions, AngloGold Ashanti's liquidity and capital resources and capital expenditures and the outcome and consequence of any potential or pending litigations or regulatory proceedings or environmental issues, are forward-looking statements regarding our operations, economic performance and financial condition. These forward-looking statements or forecasts involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from the anticipated results, performance or achievements expressed…

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · Barclays

Thank you, Stewart. Good morning, ladies and gentleman, on this call. If we can start off and if I can walk you through the slides and the presentation starting with Slide 5. You will notice that this is a repeat from our last quarter's presentation where we set our imperatives in terms of taking the business forward, getting sustainable free cash flow from a good quality portfolio, at the same time keeping the integrity of the business fully intact. We talked about capital allocation and how we are going to be aggressive when it comes to cost savings and in terms of how we will actually deal with the asset base and importantly, maintain a robust balance sheet for all environments. We committed in respect of certain projects to bring them on-stream within budget and on schedule and talked about roughly 500,000 ounces of incremental annual production coming on stream from Tropicana and Kibali at significantly lower cost levels as compared to the average cost profile of the group. At same time, we said we will preserve our long-term optionality within the portfolio in the South African side of the technology innovation consortium, which is looking at improving the way we mine and giving us access into previously mined out areas and [indiscernible] and with regard to the international portfolio around Colombia. We also said throughout this process, the safety of our people will not, at any cost, be compromised and we also said we have got the leadership of the team and the people to deliver these results. So moving a quarter forward, we're going to walk you through and you'll see a number of these points have been addressed or in the process of being addressed in the course of this presentation. Starting with safety. Safety is, and…

M. P. O'Hare

Analyst · BMO

Thank you, Venkat. I'm on Slide 15, the guide start to the year, certainly, was challenging in Q2 as the time of the price and that really happened in [indiscernible] as a result of the Easter break, our ramp up of the Easter break was not as good as it could have been. The 2 mines where we're having the biggest challenges, are at Mponeng where the drives continues to decline. This was predicted in the models. But is also contributing to the low gold production at Mponeng. On safety stoppages as a result of the fatalities at the end of the previous quarter and going into Q2 also affected the volumes at Mponeng. In late April we had an illegal strike at Moab Khotsong mine which resulted in us dismissing over 539 employees for illegal work stoppage. It took us some time to reorganize the work at that particular mine. The surface operations continue to perform well. And we're very comfortable with the improvements we've made at the Mine Waste Solutions, which reports not so long ago. On Slide 16, we very briefly tried to put down the major challenges that face us in the short term. And then the first one I think, up to most in our mines is finding a sustainable solution to the 2013, waste negotiations. We have put out as a gold industry who bargained together under the Chamber of Mines. Quite clearly, with our stakeholders, particularly, our unions, what the sharp fall in the gold price, rising costs and labor -- and lower productivity are putting us -- in what kind of position they are putting us in. We have made an initial offer of 5%, which was rejected by the unions. We handed over to an independent mediator, 2 experienced mediators who…

Ron W. Largent

Analyst · Barclays

Thanks, Mike. And good morning, everyone. I'd like to start my discussion by expanding on a little bit of the discussion that Venkat had regarding the structural cost that we're doing throughout the company. And if I break that structural cost down a little bit, basically Venkat spoke to you about some CapEx and the overhead work that's been done, but what we're attacking also is our direct operating cost. Primarily, one of the biggest questions we get at is how do we execute this in a sustainable way? And I'll just briefly go into it a little bit to explain the sustainability of this program. Basically, we're attaching this to our operating framework, using our operating framework as the base to do this work. It includes work from multidisciplinary teams across the region and the corporate. And ultimately, pinned by the General Manager as the leader to all this work. We commenced -- we chose sites to commence so we can refine our model and those sites were Geita, Moab Khotsong, Cuiaba and Siguiri. They -- from those, we learned how to take them throughout the rest of our operations, globally. Since then, Cripple Creek & Victor, Sunrise Dam have been executed and this week, we're actually in Brazil. So the ultimate outcome is to embed the outcome of this work into the 2014 business plan. I think it's important to realize as you work on operating cost that you first must stop the -- I call it, the annual inflationary growth before you can actually get into a reduction. And the real key to this is to measure dollars out the door, not some metric that can be changed by an ounce or by a tonne, it's really dollars out the door. So our ultimate goal is to…

Richard N. Duffy

Analyst · BMO

I'm talking to the earnings reconciliation on Slide 32. Our adjusted headline earnings for quarter 2 were a negative $135 million as compared to a positive $113 million in quarter 1. The reason for the reduction in earnings included a much lower gold price, $1,421 an ounce versus $1,636 an ounce in quarter 1. This contributed some $140 million in lost earnings after tax. Inventory lock up of gold resulting in 15,000 ounces of gold being produced, but not sold. Net realizable value write-down or ore stockpiles of $125 million. Indirect tax provision of $15 million and corporate restructuring costs of $4 million. After adjusting for these exceptional items, this results in adjusted headline earnings of $9 million. On the 15th of July, in our quarterly announcement, we noted that we will booking an impairment charge of between $2.2 billion and $2.6 billion in quarter 2. The review of the carrying value of our mining assets, including ore stockpiles was in accordance with the International Financial Reporting Standards given the number of indicators that have changed, including a sharp drop in the gold price, higher discount rates and a reduction in our market capitalization. The impairment has now been finalized to just under $2.4 billion post tax. The impairments of our Continental Africa assets totaled $1.56 billion to $608 million in the Americas and $213 million in South Africa. Importantly, these charges do not impact our cash flow and are excluded for the purposes of the financial covenant included in our banking agreement. I'll now go to Slide 33 on the balance sheet. At the end of the quarter, our net debt had increased to $2.78 billion, largely as the result of funding capital expenditure compounded by the lower gold price. Net debt-to-EBITDA was 1.56x, all within the loan covenant…

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · Barclays

Thank you, Richard. And if we can conclude taking a look at Slide #36. Our strategic priorities remain the same, we are restructuring the business to face the low gold price environment. We are still bullish in terms of the gold price in the longer-term. But having said that, in the short term, I think we are likely to see a low gold price environment and quite formidable volatility in the gold price, so we want the business to be prepared. And if the price then surprises us on the upside, then we claim that extra cash and margin. At the same time, we want to preserve long-term optionality at a reasonable cost to the business. We have demonstrated some of the savings, which we have already locked-in in the business going out into 2014, the rest of it are in progress. Hopefully, when we have this call next quarter, we'd be able to report production from 2 of our major projects, which is Tropicana and also Kibali, they would be in gold pooling mode. And at the same time, we continue to pursue options around the asset sales and partnerships under Charles. And through this period, we've always had a history of having a proactive balance sheet management strategy and in sharing sufficient liquidity for the business. And that focus hasn't changed. So when we start the quarterly call next time around, we'll probably use this again as the first slide, to show what progress has been made as we go in quarter-by-quarter. With that final note, I hand you back to Stewart to the take the questions.

Stewart Bailey

Analyst

Dylan, would you call for questions, please?

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Harry Mateer of Barclays.

Harry Mateer - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays

I have several questions. I guess, first, when you look at curtailing production in the mine that might be uneconomic, and I know you haven't reached decision on which those assets are, but can you give us a rough sense for how quick that process could be from decision to curtail, to when you can realistically shut down operations and actually start saving cash, is it a 1 quarter lag, more or less?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · Barclays

If I can pick up that question first and then I'll pass you across to Ron or Mike to supplement. The reality is part of the reasons why you see some of the high cash cost at the mines could be on what their objectives have been pushed down from corporate. If the objective of a mine, which has got lower grade, is basically to prolong mine life and to focus on a particular production target, the outcome is not necessarily going to be cash conducive. Whereas if the target given is to get that optimum balance between cash flow on production, you will get a different outcome. So purely looking at where cash costs are in a particular mine, you can't conclude that, that's effectively on its last legs. That's the broad aspect to the question. So you've got to go back doing the mine plans, and it really depends, to answer your question on the nature of the assets, most of the assets would be unaffected, but depending on the stage of the life cycle, you could see anything from between 6 to a 9 months’ time lag to basically consult all of the stakeholders involved and start directing it towards either closer or care and maintenance. But it will be a detailed trade-off analysis, which has to be done mine by mine. And in some instances, where you've got a shorter mine life, that can move into closure or care and maintenance mode pretty quickly. Ron, anything to add?

Ron W. Largent

Analyst · Barclays

I think as well, I think it depends on the asset and on the amount of work that it takes, whether it's water, labor, government, all those things have to go into the plan. And then adding to that, I would think if it's a complete closure because you're getting close enough to end of the reserve, or if it's something you want to keep in care and maintenance. So I think a lot of those things go on, but you can go from a very few months to some being a very long period of time depending on the physical assets -- the physical makeup of the asset.

Harry Mateer - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays

My second question on the net debt to EBITDA covenant of 3.0x, I know you're currently well within that calculation, but it is a trailing calculation and presumably, there are going to be a couple of tough quarters here ahead before things start to really improve. So I guess, what I'm wondering is have you had any preliminary conversations with the banks to perhaps loosen that covenant well in advance of having potential issue with it several quarters from now?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · Barclays

Yes, I'll pick up that question, if I may. Firstly, we did a trading metric, and it is tested, in the month of December. And firstly, if you look at -- it's tested in December and June, on a trailing metric in June, we are 1.56x. What you've also got to bear in mind, that we do get a production coming in from Tropicana, and based on what our joint venture partner has commented on this call, and that commenced recently, we're also getting production coming through from Kibali. So you will start to see the pickup in production coming through whilst the CapEx tapers off as well. So from a comfort point of view, in terms of the threshold on the covenant, within shooting range, even stress tested for gold prices, disruptions, et cetera. So with regard to that point, we are basically quite comfortable. Secondly, from a macro point of view, with regard to the banks, we have had a very supportive bank group who have been with Ashanti since 2000. In the refinancing, we have done, you've got to bear in mind that the current revolver is going back to an undrawn mode, the $1 billion will be undrawn under the revolver. And the only banking facility, which then relies on the covenant of DFC is the Australian dollar facility, which is going to get the benefit of the Tropicana cash flow. So the banks, they have been supportive, and also, in a reasonably comfortable position in that regard. And I think it's premature for us to comment on our any proactive discussions with regard to the bank group, which we may or may not be having. But rest assured, we have got a track record of proactively managing our balance sheet and liquidity position. That's the best we can comment at this stage.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from David Haughton of BMO.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO

Got a couple of questions. I'll just start with the wage negotiations. Say, that you've entered the mediation phase. What's the next step from here? And when do you think a likely timeline is until the deal is finalized?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · BMO

David, it's Venkat here, I'll pick it up and then hand you over to Mike O'Hare. Firstly, that dispute has been declined, and it's with the CCMA at the moment. There were lots of comments about the fact that the CCMA process is not going to involve all of the unions, that's been addressed, all 4 unions. The CCMA combined it as one dispute. And all of the unions have actually been part of that discussions with the CCMA. It is a 30-day process until -- probably towards the third or the fourth week in August, where the mediators have heard certainly our side of the story, they are talking to the various unions of the state. And if that dispute doesn't get resolved in 30 days, then the unions could be given a certificate to effectively embark on a protective strike, that's an option which is available in that regard. But having said that, we are hopeful that, certainly, all of the stakeholders will understand that the impact, which we have seen from a strike and what that consequence has had with regard to the companies, with regard to the unions and the employees, and even with regard to SA as a potential mining industry destination. And we are hopeful that the discussions and the negotiations of the chamber would be successful by the end of August. Mike, anything to add, no?

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO

And what have you seen is the posture of the union? In the media that we've been seeing, it's still quite confrontational? Are you finding that common ground so that you avoid the severe impact of strike?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · BMO

At the end of the day, what we don't want to do, David, is to comment on what's taking place within the closed doors in the mediation chambers. I think that would be inappropriate. The chamber has its own negotiating team to ask and so are the unions, but certainly, the feedback we are picking up is pretty cordial.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO

All right. Well, there's a lot at stake, so good luck on that.

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · BMO

Just one other point, David, what can also happen is it's not that it's an automatic period, that at the end of 30 days, it's strike or nothing, it can be extended by mutual consent.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO

Okay. All right, next question. Not surprisingly, once you run an $1,100 mine model, you end up with those mines that make it, those that don't, et cetera. How have you found the appetite at the moment for looking for partnerships or the sale of those assets? It is certainly a bias market, have you found any interest in either the partnership or sale avenue?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · BMO

David, we are picking up a fair amount of interest in terms of potential partnerships and sale aspect. But as you rightly said, it's a bias market out there, and we don't want to do is to knee jerk into reaction in terms of some of the assets and then effectively enter into partnerships for partnership's sake. It's all around the value trade of the equation. But what we are very clear is even in terms of Navachab, which we have identified for sale, which is going through the sale process, Ron has got a clear backup strategy in terms of continuing to operate the mine if the sale process falls through. So it's not that we are banking on one particular outcome.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO

Okay, that's good. The guidance that you've got for this year looks very much the back-end loaded. I've heard what you've said about the contribution of Tropicana and Kibali. Will those 2 assets be in commercial production or would you be counting pre-commercial production as part of the goal?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · BMO

In terms of your annual -- in terms of the guidance, you are right, the fourth quarter does have a significant pickup in terms of production. And the key sources of that, if we can recap is, Australia, in terms of Tropicana, that would be commercial production coming in. And Sunrise Dam is also accessing the Crown Pillar area in terms of ore, that's the second factor. Thirdly, you will see Geita having a fuller 6 months of the year as compared to the first 6 months of this year where it was subject to the SAG mill realigning, and also a pickup in terms of the South African production. And with regard to Kibali, we're still waiting for firm indications from our joint venture partners. I don't want to be dragged into how many ounces have gone into the plant and whether it would, from a point of view, going to preproduction or commercial production. But from our point of view, these are the primary areas where we see the pickup coming. It's Australia and it's coming from parts of Continental Africa and South Africa.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO

All right. Just looking at Sunrise Dam, clearly high-costs, some of those costs associated with the prep work for the Crown Pillar. What happens -- how long will that Crown Pillar last? And what happens after that?

M. P. O'Hare

Analyst · BMO

The Sunrise Dam production profile is -- yes, it has the Crown Pillar in the second half of 2013. But there's also considerable work done in the underground with the exploration or the [indiscernible] exploration and the workaround turning Sunrise Dam into a bulk underground is in the process. That's really the key to the future of Sunrise Dam. So the Crown Pillar helps in 2013, and there may be some early into 2014. But is really around the lower cost called the GQ, I think is the name of the ore body. And it becomes a bulk mineable ore body. And that's the -- whether Sunrise Dam continues or not is key is the bulk mining.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO

Okay. And for that GQ in the bulk mining, are you looking at the long hauls typing? Or are you even thinking about sublevel typing?

M. P. O'Hare

Analyst · BMO

Well, I think that's right in the middle, they're looking at everything right now. What they've done is went in and they've implemented reverse circulation drilling underground, which has allowed them to get out in front of their ore body and they're starting to see great results and changing it from a narrow structure, I'll call it, instead of a narrow vein, into bulk mineable units. And the development rates and their mining rates have increased tremendously in the past few quarters to where they're setting themselves up to take advantage of that in whatever that mining method could end up being.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO

Okay. Switching over to Obuasi, so I just got one operational and then one financial question left. Switching over to Obuasi, clearly high-cost. I heard a bit about what your plan was to improve those, can you just run through what we should be expecting for Obuasi in the near and medium-term please?

M. P. O'Hare

Analyst · BMO

Okay. I mean, the near and medium-term, the key -- I actually got to go spend some time at Obuasi, so I think you have a fairly good understanding of where we're going in the short and medium-term. The key at Obuasi is getting the material, the ore body to the service. I know it sounds simple, but with the old infrastructure, it can be challenging. So ultimately, that is the reason behind the decline access into the ore body and secondary off the decline is to allow us to do underground drilling and ore body definition. Right now, the productivity of the underground, and that comes from where we've changed from a contract development miner to owner-operator and if we need to get to about 5,000 tons per day out of the underground. And we've seen an improvement in -- at the end of quarter 2 and we weren't quite at 5,000, but the plan is to get that by the end of year, which will give us at least break even economics at the mine without counting the decline. So bottom line is you need to have that production profile of your -- 300,000 ounces a year to get to that breakeven profile.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO

Okay. And so relatively speaking, you're satisfied with the mining and the direction it's moving in, but your real problem is that ore handling once you've got it mined?

M. P. O'Hare

Analyst · BMO

Yes. But where we're headed to with the decline, we'll open the ore body up with the initial part of what we call a one-part of the decline that allows us to get jumbos underground. And then the main decline will allow you to not only access the lower end but up of the -- from the 50 level and above, we will be able to start looking at using truck haulage out of the decline for a certain amount of the ore.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO

Okay, so for the underground, is 5,000 tons a day as good as it gets? Or do you have ambitions beyond that?

M. P. O'Hare

Analyst · BMO

Of course, I'm an operator, I have all sorts of ambitions. I think with the -- the bottom line is I think you can do 5,000 tons a day through the 2 primary shafts. And we're right in the middle of a whole planning sequence with the -- once we've decided to go with the decline, then we will see what we can subsidize that 5,000 ton a day with the decline from the material above the 50 level. And it's a process that we hope to have it in our next year's plan that gives us optionality with the initial decline. So 5,000 is approximately what you can do from the 2 shafts that we have right now.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO

All right, and then finally, a question more I guess, in Richard's area. Lots of adjusted earning numbers all over the place, so the number that you feel most comfortable with as a representative number for this quarter just gone is your adjusted-adjusted $9 million profit as opposed to your loss of $135 million, is that what we should be thinking about?

Richard N. Duffy

Analyst · BMO

Correct, because what we've done there is the biggest move there is the ore stockpile write down. So we've added that back to the adjusted headline earnings with the other adjustments that are spoke to. So yes, 9 is the number that we think is the most comparable number, I think, made the adjustments for that one-off items and the exceptional items.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO

Yes, because I was looking at those adjusted headline numbers compared to the headline, and going, hmm, some of these should have gone the other way. So I'm glad that you explained that the $9 million is the better way to look at it.

Richard N. Duffy

Analyst · BMO

David, just one -- if I can supplement what Richard has said. Basically, we are constrained in terms of what we can add in context from an headline earnings point of view and going into adjusted headline earnings. And other area where you can look at, if you are comparing it with your model, is do look at the Item #5, special items note, and you would see quite a few items which have gone through in there. We have not necessarily added back headline earnings. And that might explain some of the differences, which you had.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO

Right. Although the adjusted number that you reported of the loss of $135 million is a non-GAAP measure anyhow.

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · BMO

Yes, correct. Correct.

Operator

Operator

Our final question comes from Andrew Byrne of Barclays.

Andrew Byrne - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays

It's Andrew Byrne here from Barclays. A couple of questions to ask, maybe we kick off an easy accounting questions to begin with. In the quarter, there's quite a large associated loss at $183 million. I assume that, that includes some type of impairments or inventory write-down or could you may be clear what that number is on a rolling basis?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · Barclays

Sorry, are you referring to the $183 million, being the impairment which is going through the equity accounted investment line, is that what you're referring to?

Andrew Byrne - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays

Yes, that's correct. Yes.

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · Barclays

Effectively the total impairment for the group and the stock write-downs in total have been around $2.4 billion, of which $183 million goes through the equity line. And John and Richard can assist me here, is that primarily around the Mongbwalu project?

Richard N. Duffy

Analyst · Barclays

It's partly the impairments for joint venture shrinkage and that includes Sadiola and the other assets.

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · Barclays

Okay. And the stockpile write-down goes through that.

Andrew Byrne - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays

Okay, perfect. And then moving on, it's obvious that you have focused a lot of attention on discretionary spend here, which is certainly commendable. And whilst the progress at Tropicana and Kibali has been fantastic and Geita has made a welcome return in this quarter, it seems that the real engine are still not firing, namely when I look at it, Kopanang and Mponeng in South Africa and Obuasi are materially underperforming. Obviously, you've just discussed there what you're looking to Obuasi and at prior results. But could you just explain exactly what's gone wrong at Kopanang and Mponeng and what you expect to -- how you expect to turn those assets around? And equally, what is included from those 2 assets inside of your 4 million ounce guidance.

M. P. O'Hare

Analyst · Barclays

Mike here. So if I could firstly touch on Kopanang. Kopanang is one of those assets that had a significant amount of low-grade mining, which doesn't make money that we've, I think, over the last 6 to 9 months, working away at and taking out. So that's really the story at Kop -- they're actually achieving to the budget, beyond the budgets that we set for them this year. The bigger issue is at Mponeng, as I mentioned earlier, the first issue is the grade, which has been coming off for quite a long period of time, our grade year-on-year is 10% lower, and our grade quarter-on-quarter is 10% lower. That's not something we can do a whole lot about. So if you turn your attention to the volume part of the equation, firstly, from the time we started the strike at Mponeng, it's the mine that has struggled the most to get back to levels that it was at pre-strike. We've changed the management team now at Mponeng. These came up a little bit. Because the simple fact is we're not mining enough with the crews underground. So we've analyzed what we're doing wrong and we've picked on 5 specific really mining basic things to be concentrating on, because what it thinks, it's increasing the productivity of the mining crews underground. There's nothing else structural that's changed at that mine.

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · Barclays

And if I can pick up the second part of the question, the numbers included for Kopanang for the year is around between 170,000 to 190,000 ounces, of which around 94,000 ounces has been banked in the first half of the year. With regard to Mponeng, it's 400,000 to 420,000 ounces for the year, of which around 173,000 ounces has been banked in for the first half of the year.

Andrew Byrne - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays

Sure. Okay. So at Mponeng, whether the real risk given this is really, you do actually need to have that productivity improvement come through to hit your guidance?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · Barclays

Yes, expecting we're seeing the green shoots, Mponeng will probably hit its highest ounce number for the year in the month that we're currently in at the moment. Specifically, the chain appears to have turned around.

Andrew Byrne - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays

Sure, okay. And then one final question, if I may. Just when we look at your cost guidance for the year, you -- it appears -- given what you've also guided for 3Q, it appears that 4Q is going to be a stellar quarter from a cost perspective. And I whilst I understand that you've got Geita, you continue and get to ramp buckets where it should be, equally you've got some volumes from Tropicana and Kibali. And from the numbers you just gave me there, I would assume some cost improvement at Mponeng. Are there any other particular assets you'd want to flag where we should see a material cost improvement?

Richard N. Duffy

Analyst · Barclays

No, I think you've got most of them. Just Sunrise Dam obviously, Crown Pillar which Ron spoke to is a big help there. But anything I would add is you just need to factor in the weaker local currencies as well in getting to the number, the guidance number.

Operator

Operator

Gentlemen, we have no further questions. Do you have any closing comments?

Stewart Bailey

Analyst

No, Dylan, I think that more or less wraps it up. Just thanks to everybody who joined us on the webcast and on the call. And we'll do this all again in 3 months. Thank you very much.