Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · Barclays
Thank you, Stewart. Good morning, ladies and gentleman, on this call. If we can start off and if I can walk you through the slides and the presentation starting with Slide 5. You will notice that this is a repeat from our last quarter's presentation where we set our imperatives in terms of taking the business forward, getting sustainable free cash flow from a good quality portfolio, at the same time keeping the integrity of the business fully intact. We talked about capital allocation and how we are going to be aggressive when it comes to cost savings and in terms of how we will actually deal with the asset base and importantly, maintain a robust balance sheet for all environments. We committed in respect of certain projects to bring them on-stream within budget and on schedule and talked about roughly 500,000 ounces of incremental annual production coming on stream from Tropicana and Kibali at significantly lower cost levels as compared to the average cost profile of the group. At same time, we said we will preserve our long-term optionality within the portfolio in the South African side of the technology innovation consortium, which is looking at improving the way we mine and giving us access into previously mined out areas and [indiscernible] and with regard to the international portfolio around Colombia. We also said throughout this process, the safety of our people will not, at any cost, be compromised and we also said we have got the leadership of the team and the people to deliver these results. So moving a quarter forward, we're going to walk you through and you'll see a number of these points have been addressed or in the process of being addressed in the course of this presentation. Starting with safety. Safety is, and will always be, our first value. We've done a lot of good work over the past 5 years in this area of safety, creating a mindset change in terms of how we approach safety within the business and as with greater focus in terms of safety initiatives and effort throughout the organization during difficult times. Sadly, we had 2 fatalities recorded in the second quarter, one was a TauTona, and other was in Mponeng as a result of fall of ground, and a locomotive accident, respectively. Both of them related to our mines in the West Wits region. And we have gone through a detailed investigation of all of our fatalities, which have occurred in the last 12 months to learn from the mistakes, which have happened, and how our behavior, our training and controls and the potentially sanction procedures can be improved as a result to basically bring down the level of fatalities. We are focused on fatalities, largely because: A, obviously, we have to give a -- we've got to get to a 0 harm environment within the workplace, and 1 fatality is 1 fatality too many. But importantly, over the last 5 years, the level of fatalities at our mine had relatively being flat and have shown signs of increasing at the end of 2012. Green shoots are starting to emerge on the fatality front. If you look at the first 6 months of this year compared to the first 6 months of last year here on Slide #6, you'd notice that our Continental African region, our Americas region, our Australia region and exploration team. In addition to that, our Vaal River region in South Africa, all of them recorded a fatality free for 6 months, and that's an all-time record. The fatalities were focused in the West Wits area, and Mike O'Hare and our head of safety for the group are actually focused on improving the performance in the West Wits region. And year-on-year, we have reduced the fatalities for the same period from 9 to 5. Importantly, in the Continental African region in the month of June, the month of June is important because that is when Continental African operations were transitioning from Richard Duffy to Ron Largent, and they were going through quite a formidable change during that period. And even during this period, the overall safety culture was not compromised and the region recorded 5.4 million hours worked through the months without a single lost-time injury. So focus of safety is of paramount importance because whenever the industry of the operations are on pressure -- on the pressure, we can't afford to have corners cut from a safety point of view. Turning on to the second quarter, I'm going to cover this at a relatively high level, and Mike, Ron, and Richard will unpack these from their respective areas of accountability. Production of 935,000 ounces was at the top half of the guidance and it was around 4% better than the first quarter of 2013. Our cash cost of $898 an ounce was better than both the initial guidance of $900 to $950 an ounce, and also our July announcement of $900 to $920 an ounce, so the focus on cost is coming through. And we have had improved performance from the Continental African assets and Serra Grande mine in Brazil. In terms of net profit, we reported a net loss for the period, given the accounting adjustments on impairment, we flocked [ph] to the market given the sharp drop in the gold price and the move in the discount rate. We will record an impairment charge, including the write-down of, of stockpiles of between $2.2 billion to $2.6 billion. The impact was in the middle of the range at around $2.4 billion, and the impact on adjusted headline earnings was a consequence of the lower gold price and the fact that the stockpile write-downs although our book entries are not added back for the purpose of headline earnings. But Richard will demonstrate to you that if you had to strip out these exceptional items, we were positive to the tune of around $9 million for the quarter. We've made solid progress in terms of the cuts cost reduction in the areas like corporate, exploration and even capital expenditure. We'll cover that in subsequent slides. And the good news is on the production front, Tropicana has started commissioning, apologies from Graham Ehm, he's not at this presentation today. He's at the Tropicana site, taking the time to ensure that the commissioning actually happens as per plan. He's targeting gold pour in the third quarter. And Randgold has also announced that they are targeting the first gold pour from Kibali in the month of October. So we've got 2 projects coming on stream. Refinancing, Richard will talk about it. We raised $1.25 billion, removing the refinancing risk from the maturing convertible in May 2014. We have also turned out our maturity profile, added liquidity at an incremental interest cost as compared to where we are now within our tolerance limits. Importantly, we have allowed our flexibility to redeem the bond early under certain scenarios. In terms of dividend, the board at its meeting held earlier the week, deliberated this at length. We declared a first quarter dividend of ZAR 0.50, and we have taken a call that for the second quarter and the third quarter, given the volatile gold price environment, the potential around the wage negotiations in South Africa, and also importantly, we are in capital project boom mode, where the projects premium gold before the end of the year, and therefore we have taken a breather for both quarter 2 and quarter 3, and the quarter 4 dividend will be reviewed at the year end. And we are then reverting back to half yearly, quarterly -- pay half-yearly payments of dividends going into 2014. Turning to Slide 8, a snapshot of the management team. The team is fully committed. The transition has been relatively smooth. The team is committed in terms of the challenges with the business phase. We are certainly going to go through as an industry, pretty challenging times over the next set of 6 to 18 months, and the business is geared up to face those challenges. If I can spend most of those phases would be familiar for those on the call, if I can spend a little bit of time on the operational and technical side, they have been clustered now under 3 of our colleagues. And between the 3 of them, Ron Largent, Mike O'Hare, and Graham Ehm, between the 3 of them have operating experience of over 105 years. Between the 3 of them, if I can start off with Ron. Ron is our Chief Operating Officer, International Operations, and he's currently continuing to manage the Americas regions, has got [indiscernible] under his belt, transitioning from Richard Duffy into his structure, and he's also overseeing the cost reduction program across all of our mine sites with support from both Mike O'Hare and Graham Ehm. Mike O'Hare has been in the South African region for several years. He knows the ore body backwards, and Mike is managing the South African portfolio, spending a significant proportion of time at the mine sites during these periods. With regard to Graham Ehm, Graham retains the accountability for Australia until the projects are commissioned and Continental Africa is settled within Ron's structure. He has also taken on the planning and technical portfolio from Tony O'Neill and the exploration portfolio from Tony as well. So we've transitioned the operational piece pretty successfully within a 2-month period since the appointment was announced, Richard has moved across to being the CFO and Charles was taken on my accountability in terms of M&A and transaction execution, et cetera. But as for the portfolios are largely unchanged. Moving on to Slide #9, which is quite an important slide in the presentation. Here, we demonstrate how we are coming at the problem, which AngloGold Ashanti is tackling. We're taking it head on and we are coming at it from 2 broad angles. Firstly, around revenue enhancement. Here we have 2 projects, Tropicana and Kibali. Coming on stream, on-time and on budget, where particularly given the backdrop of project blowout in terms of cost and in terms of timeline. These 2 projects, and one has to bear in mind, Tropicana is the first greenfield project built by AngloGold Ashanti since its formation outside South Africa. So given that challenge, which we have had Tropicana has come all exceptionally nicely. And Kibali through our joint venture partner and operator Randgold, is looking at pouring gold in short timescale as compared to when Tropicana is set to pour gold. Between the 2 of them, they should be giving around 550,000 to 600,000 ounces in 2014, at an average cash cost well below our current cost number that reduces the rally of the debt, in other words, we are basically bringing in cash flows to pull down the debt. It also brings in cash flow, which was not there in the business before, and it lowers our average cash cost profile. At the same time, we are expanding Cripple Creek & Victor in North America. And that effectively is the incremental expansion, which takes place until 2016, '17, with cash flow post production up from end '14, early '15 over that period. What we are also doing over this -- over the current planning cycle, we just started this month, going until the end of December, we'll be removing unprofitable ounces from the plan, all of the business plans are going back to the chopping block again. And we are looking at planning at low prices at around $1,100, call it the base case scenario, and that fully operators are working in terms of all of the mine plan. And effectively, looking at price scenarios, both above and below that. And at the end of the day, certain assets won't make it. Some of them may need to mine stockpiles for a period. Some of the assets may need to be sold or put on care and maintenance or mothballed. At this stage, we do not want to speculate what they would be because historically, the mines were actually looking at preserving probably production, and mine life here the focus is on preserving optionality and generating cash flow. So we want to go back in there to look at what is doable in terms of the mine plan and making this change in quite an aggressive manner, but what we will not do is to look at just the short term. We will see whether there are other price lines appropriate for some of the ore bodies given their life cycle maturity. Whilst we are looking at the revenue enhancement on the one hand. We can't ignore the cost side. Project capital will reduce next year as these 2 projects have been commissioned. There will be an element of underground capital in Kibali going into next year, but Tropicana capital, project capital will cease. And the project capital reduces significantly going into next year with fewer projects, and at the same time, we'll be attacking sustainable capital savings. At the same time, Ron Largent with the help of the operators, will be looking at direct cost reductions across the suite. To preempt the question, which may come on the call, are we giving any guidance for 2014 in terms of production, cash cost or capital low at this stage, we want to completely extent of the planning because the 3 of these are intertwined and at the time of announcing our results at the end of the year, we will actually provide the guidance for 2014. But here, the objective will not be to chase a particular production number, but to look at what is the most optimum methodology to use in terms of maximizing our cash flow generation over the period whereas preserving the long-term optionality intact. Whilst this is happening, certainly to incentivize the operators to get the reductions faster, the corporate officer has taken control of the exploration spend on the corporate cost savings, and we'll come on to that in a second, we are looking at taking out around $460 million depending on the midpoint in 2014, as compared to the 2012 spend. And we'll illustrate on how we intend during that. That's around $100 an ounce coming off the all-in sustaining cost of the group when we go into 2014 as compared to 2012. And we have approached it quite methodically and step-by-step. If I can then spend time on Slides 10, 11 and 12, focusing on 3 areas, one around capital discipline. We have reduced our capital expenditure for the year by around $100 million to $150 million, and all of that is occurring in the second half of the year. We have not touched the capital spend in Tropicana and Kibali. They bring in gold within a short period of time. In addition to suspending the Mongbwalu project, and pushing off the Sadiola sulfide project, Moab Khotsong project had been postponed whilst Mike looks for alternative way of accessing that project. Mponeng deepening is also being slowed down as part of the review of the business plan to see if there's a better way of optimizing the expenditure and the production profile. The Cripple Creek expansion will continue, so will be the Obuasi ramp project as it brings in the high-grade ounces sooner. All of the mine plans are being redrawn, as I said previously. Our ERP project, which involves having the entire group migrating to a single system SAP has been completed in South Africa. It's being completed in Australia and it's in progress in the Americas. Once that is done, we will suspend the project for Continental Africa region. And take a breather that's around the saving of $113 million over a 3-year period, that's in terms of the capital spend. Turning to exploration, one needs to bear in mind of the group's new project, particularly Tropicana, has come as a result of exploration successes and also, our find in Colombia has been as a result of exploration. It has not been on account of acquisitions. So what is important is that we approach this not like an account at work, and preserve the optionality of not making a [indiscernible] its size. So the exploration rationalization has been built bottom-up by asking the exploration team themselves, where they would see the best bang for the buck. An impact of that, is that the spend in 2013, the expense exploration for that year has been reduced by $50 million to $327 million, all of these cuts are coming in the second half of the year. And thus, has take into account an existing cost from projects and termination provisions, et cetera, this is the best estimate at present. But what we can say is the exploration forecast for 2014, the expense exploration is locked in, at $150 million to $175 million, and that expense greenfields are about $35 million to $40 million, Colombia to preserve the tenements and to carry out limited geological work around $75 million to $86 million, expense brownfield are about $10 million to $12 million. And SA technology project, which Mike will talk about between $30 million to $35 million, that represents a sharp decline in what I would call the nice to have exploration spend, which was included 2012 and parts of 2013. So how will we achieve that? Core exploration skills have been retained to ensure that we have got continuity and historical institutional knowledge. We are focused on where we've been successful in previous years and providing for optionality in strategic areas. And as a result of that, we have decided to withdraw or farm out or effectively trade in for a royalty or equity projects which are currently being worked upon in 13 regions. And we only focus on 3 key areas, which are Tropicana, given the prospectivity which we are seeing in and around the mine site concession, beyond the brownfield boundary. Colombia, to preserve additional optionality in respect of that asset, and importantly, Siguiri, given its outperformance over the last 2, 3 years. The capital is being directed towards Siguiri, to basically help get additional fees into the plan. So there's a lot more focus going into exploration. And that has been reduced by over 60% -- 60% to 65% as compared to prior periods. The next area of focus is that in regards to corporate costs, at the end of the day, if we were to get the savings out of the system, more cost factors are present. So if we look at our corporate cost, they have gone up steadily from 2008 as we are building capacity. In 2012, it was around $291 million. We forecast a saving of $50 million as a one-line saving adjustment when we went out with our guidance of $240 million in 2013. We are preserving that guidance intact, given that some of the cuts, which we are seeing right now will involves some redundancy and termination payments. So we are not changing the annual guidance on corporate cost. What we are targeting is cost coming down to between $120 million to $140 million in 2014. Here, I'm on Slide #12. And the way we are doing it is coming at it from 2 broad angles. In fact 3 broad angles, and if I can give you the approach we have taken. If we want the business to believe that they are serious about the cuts, we have to start from the very top. And here we mean, the boardroom, the executive committee going down to various regional structures. The executive committee [indiscernible] have seen a shrunk from the same time last year, by 3 individuals. And we are down from 13 to 10 as an executive team, that's a reduction of around 25%. And in total cost to company has come down by around roughly 35% to 40%. And at the same time, in terms of senior roles, there have been about roughly 20%, 25%, which has come out from some of the senior roles over that same period. The focus here has been personally starting with the looking at the entire organizational structure, streamlining the management structure, across the organization, particularly given where the operations are talking into with regard to the various operators. We've identified multiple areas of duplication within the business and it's so nice to have activities, which perhaps one can we relook at without compromising the integrity of the business, but importantly, putting the technical support, which the operations need closer to the operations rather than distance away from the operations. And we have looked at the number of roles that exist within the group, or have a complement of around 60,000 employees across the group. In terms of who are not actually at the mine shaft or at the plant, but provide ancillary services to the mine or to the country office or region or corporate. This is across all of the countries we operate and we calculate the number to be around 2,000 and we are targeting removing 40% of that role across the entire global sphere. And this is starting from Denver going through Continental Africa and getting through Johannesburg through to our office in Perth. Out of that 2,000 employees, 800 is the number which will be the result of the exercise we would not have roles going into 2014. And we are more than halfway through this process of separation and redundancy payments. Secondary, we are targeting is indirect spend, use of consultants have been banned unless it's approved by other one of the chief operating officers or the CEO, the CFO. And In addition to that, under the leadership of our group General Counsel, we are going through meticulously looking at every element of spending included in the budget. And removing unnecessary items of spend, one could say we shouldn't have been there in the first place, that point, but notwithstanding that it's never late. So we are basically eliminating items of consultancy spend, travel, communication, information technology cost, et cetera, no cost to sacrosanct out here. You have noticed that our corporate cost have already come down in the second quarter by 13%. But as we go into the latter parts of the year, there would involve separation costs, which would be incurred, we're holding our guidance for the year, therefore, impact given the $50 million saving budgeted. The third area where we are coming from is that typically, the question then asked is what happens when gold goes up again, 2,000, 600,700 [ph] the management is committed that we will exercise sufficient oversight to prevent cost creep in the event of price were to pleasantly surprise us. Slide 13 is a very good graphical illustration of what it means for the business. And this is the tailwind the operators need to basically start bringing the operating savings and the performance to budgets at various mines. In 2012, you can see the amount spend was close to $750 million between expense, exploration, evaluation studies, and corporate cost. We pulled the guidance down to close to $600 million, at the start of the year, it's pulled back further in the revised guidance. But going into the 2014, the exploration expenditures locked in and the corporate cost are being targeted with a fair amount of aggression, so that it releases around $437 million to $482 million of savings as compared to 2012. And that's over $100 an ounce production in our all-in sustaining cost, and that's before the operators start to pull in the direct operating cost savings. So this is the tailwind, which has been provided when we go into 2014 along with the new projects poured in gold. With that introductory comments, I'm going to hand you over to Mike O'Hare.