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Transcript
OP
Operator
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the AngloGold Ashanti First Quarter 2013 Results. [Operator Instructions] Please also note that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Stewart Bailey. Please go ahead, sir.
SB
Stewart Bailey
Analyst
Thanks, Dylan, and welcome, everybody, to our Q1 2013 results. You've got members of our executive team present, including our newly appointed Chief Executive, Venkat. We'll run through normal procedure, which is straight through introductory remarks and highlights for the quarter, future operations and projects, and then Venkat will close off with some concluding remarks on strategy going forward. As is usual, just to kick off with an important Safe Harbor statement. Certain statements contained in this document, other than statements of historical fact, including without limitation, those concerning economic outlook for the gold mining industry expectations regarding gold prices, production, cash costs and other operator results, return on equity, productivity improvements, growth prospects and outlook of AngloGold Ashanti's operations individually or in the aggregate, including achievement of project milestones, commencement and completion of commercial operations of certain of AngloGold Ashanti's exploration and production projects and the completion of acquisitions and dispositions, AngloGold Ashanti's liquidity and capital resources and capital expenditures and the outcome and consequence of any potential or pending litigation or regulatory proceedings or environmental issues are forward-looking statements regarding our operations, economic performance and financial condition. These forward-looking statements or forecasts involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from the anticipated results, performance or achievements expressed in these forward-looking statements. Although we believe the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements and forecasts are reasonable, no assurance can be given that expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of, among other factors, changes in economic, social and political and market conditions, success of business and operating initiatives, changes in the regulatory environment and other government actions, including environmental approvals,…
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · Barclays
Thank you very much, Stewart. Before we go into the first quarter results, I think the question, which was raised by a number of people, were why did the CFO, who originally said he was not interested in taking on the CEO role, change his mind? A number of factors. Certainly, Chairman persuaded me in my thinking over the period, very good support from the Board of Directors of AngloGold Ashanti and the Eskom team and the wider team within AngloGold as well. And in addition to that, given where we are in terms of the cycle, certainly, I believe I've got the right fit to the job, with the support of the team, to see AngloGold Ashanti through for the next foreseeable future. In addition to that, Tony, who had ruled himself out as a candidate for the job due to family reasons, has been an extremely useful support and mentor over this period. And he also helped me look at this from a different point of view. So there we are. Moving into the first quarter results. Gold price dropped by $82 an ounce quarter-on-quarter. And what we saw is an adjusted headline earnings go up sixfold to $113 million. Admittedly, we came off a strike-impacted quarter. But notwithstanding that, it was a pretty good increase in earnings despite the drop in gold price. With regard to production, production came in just at around 900,000 ounces. It's up from 859,000 ounces from the previous quarter. And it came in within the adjusted guidance. We had an impact of 20,000 ounces as a result of the lightning strike. When adjusted for that, we come in line with our adjusted guidance. Costs at $894 an ounce came in better than the guidance we provided to the market. Most importantly, our…
O'
A. M. O'Neill
Analyst · BMO
Thanks, Venkat. Firstly, if we talk safety, we've had solid trends going into the first quarter. All injury frequency rate of 7.92 is below the 2015 target. Our fatalities compared against the last quarter 2012 were down. But the cold, hard reality of this is that we've had 3 fatalities, and that's unacceptable. Also if you look at our trends really from 2000 -- late 2010 to 2013, although at low-frequency rates, we haven't actually made significant inroads into the fatality frequency rates. The areas that we are focusing on to try and shift that performance, firstly, is in safety capability training. We're putting a lot of effort right across the company, starting at the basic investigation so that people on-site understand what's happened in any incident and find the ways to mitigate, so they don't repeat. Hazard identification and control so that workers at the base start to take control of their own work environments. And leadership overall to make sure that this safety effort is never missed for 1 minute. On top of that, the key area is fatal risk. We have developed 19 major hazard standards, addressing what we think are the key fatality opportunities, if I can put it that way, in the company. We've done bow-tie analysis of all those items, looking at the risks and the critical controls that we need to control all of those elements. We're doing it site-by-site, ensuring that what each site has in place actually complies with our major heads of standards. I guess, overall safety, the broad company has performed pretty well. We've got 2 areas that we would like to see more improvement, and they are Mponeng and Obuasi. In South Africa, regional overview. Solid recovery from the strike last quarter of 2012. We've seen a good…
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · Barclays
Thank you, Tony. Now quickly moving on to the balance sheet. Our liquidity position is strong. And as you know, AngloGold Ashanti has always been proactive when it comes to balance sheet management. Our net debt-to-EBITDA, which is the single financial covenant in our banking facilities, is currently sitting at 1.06x and it's well within the banking covenant limit of 3x. Our project capital expenditure peaks this year, and you'll see that in the slides coming later on in the presentation, and is expected to decline once Tropicana and Kibali start contributing. Net debt, which is currently sitting at $2.3 billion, is really moving in line with the project capital for these projects before it starts to trend lower. Our main debt facilities remain largely undrawn and there is around $3.5 billion -- $3.4 billion of liquidity available for AngloGold Ashanti. But we wouldn't be drawing all of that or a large chunk of it, but it's available should the company need it. In addition to that, there is the convertible, which is -- which falls due for maturity, $732 million in May 2014. In response to questions from a number of you, there are no plans to issue equity or equity-linked instruments presently to refinance the convertible bonds. We do have a backstop bridge loan facility, which is available for draw for that purpose. We have no hesitation in using it or we will look to refinance that maturity in the vanilla debt market. But it's available as a backstop. And given the gold price movement over the last couple of months, our business plans are being modified to reflect the lower gold price environment, but at the same time, preserving the optionality to move the plans around should the gold price go up. Currently, we are looking at…
SB
Stewart Bailey
Analyst
Thanks, Venkat. Dylan, the queue for questions, please?
OP
Operator
Operator
. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Harry Mateer of Barclays.
HD
Harry Mateer - Barclays Capital, Research Division
Analyst · Barclays
Venkat, congratulations on the new role. There are 2 topics that I'd like to touch on. I guess, first, are you able and/or willing to comment on the report last month that suggested AngloGold made a proposal to the government regarding a potential separation of the company? And if you're not willing to comment on that, can you at least update us on your thoughts about the potential viability of such a transaction now that you're CEO? And then secondly, with respect to the convert that comes due next year, given you expect to have free cash flow after Tropicana and Kibali come online, is putting that covert on your bank line and then perhaps paying it down over time an option you'll consider instead of simply refinancing it and making it part of your permanent debt capital structure?
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · Barclays
Yes, I can answer both questions. Let's start with the second one first. We are conscious of timing of asset sales coming through as well before the maturity of the debt. In addition to that, there is going to be cash flows coming from Kibali and from Tropicana. That's one of the reasons why we wanted to back-stop that convertible with a bridge facility, so we keep our options open. The bridge is available for draw. It's available for 6 months from May 2014. And at our own option, at our sole option, we can roll it for a further 6 months. So we will look at that option rather than actually hardening gross debt, if that's the question you're raising. With regards to the comment which was made in the press, we certainly saw that comment. We don't comment on speculation, as you'd appreciate. We do have discussions with our regulators all the time. We've been having it since 2004 on a variety of issues. And at this stage, there's no further comment we can make to the article. With regard to your specific question on the split, one has to say you can never say never. But certainly, looking at the empirical trading data, which we have seen based on a split, which has been done recently, and it was announced, as I recall, on the 26th of November, and it's been listed since 11th of February, we are trading pretty much neck-to-neck as compared to the combined entity. So I'm not convinced the corporate finance solutions really gets very far until you've actually addressed the underlying issues impacting on the portfolio and the drivers of the operation. And that is where the key focus is right now, which is basically pulling the cost base down, getting quality ounces into production and realigning the portfolio to make it a high-quality portfolio so that this lends itself to multiple other options later on. And that's really the focus at present.
OP
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Terence Ortslan of TSO & Associates.
TO
Terence Ortslan
Analyst · TSO & Associates
Congratulations for your new responsibility. Just on Colombia. I'm kind of caught by surprise that you're considering such a major asset to open the participation for other corporations or partners. Because given the ounces and potential, why would you be concerned? And if that's the case, is that a management issue? Is it a capital issue? Or is it a local host country issue that you're addressing -- try to address by this partnership?
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · TSO & Associates
Okay. Let me answer that question first, and then I'll ask Charles if he's got anything to add to it. Firstly, we are not looking at a lock, stock and barrel partnership with regard to Colombia. Colombia has got huge potential. There are various parts of the concession which naturally lend itself to partnership and, hence, the qualification. As and when appropriate, we will look at partners for Colombia, so we are not going into Colombia with 1 partner on the whole lot. That's the first factor. Second factor is that by partnering certain parts of the landholding which we have in Colombia, particularly given the nature of the ore bodies there, we might be able to use that earn-in cash which is coming in to fund the exploration in some of our key projects in Colombia. So it will be a combination of both. And the key here is to ensure that we daylight some value for our shareholders going into 2014. So it's a combination of all of those. Charles?
CC
Charles E. Carter
Analyst · TSO & Associates
I mean, the thing I'll just add to what Venkat said is, firstly, partnership is not new to us in Colombia. We've been partnering with B2Gold in Gramalote and we have exploration JVs with Glencore, amongst others. I think the point here that Venkat is making is as we stand up, value, line of sight on new projects, we have to have a hard look at how much of that we want to fund ourselves and how much of that we potentially want to open up to co-funding. And that can obviously take multiple different forms. So this is not an address to find a partner for Colombia. But it is to say -- and we are making good progress on projects like La Colosa. The question further down the road for us is going to be do we want all of that for ourselves or do we want to look at a long-term strategic partner, bearing in mind that's a 40-plus year prospect. That's where the thinking starts to take form. I think it's early days. And obviously, for our shareholders, we're not looking to give up value prematurely. We have to give our investors line of sight of the opportunities in the value creation. And we have do that mindful of a constrained gold price environment in the near term. So those are the tradeoffs. But there's no mad rush to give away value. There is a strategic hard look at the long-term prospectivity and how to realize that both for ourselves, for our shareholders, our current partners and our potential partners. And the most important thing is that the country starts to see is build of real projects in Colombia. So that's the debate under way in the management team.
TO
Terence Ortslan
Analyst · TSO & Associates
Can I ask you one more question, please, on Mali and Sadiola specifically? On Mali, is there a focus change on Mali, number one, given the circumstances, although it seems to be very isolated in terms of political issues? And two, on Sadiola, with the gold price environment at your partnership, is there a change in your management and board direction on future of Sadiola?
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · TSO & Associates
If I can come in here, then Richard or Tony can supplement. With regard to Mali, given the current political situation there and gold price and our own capital expenditure requirement, it's perhaps the appropriate decision to make to slow down the spend in terms of Sadiola. And that's what we have planned at the end of the first quarter. It's not something new we have done. It's something we put up at the -- in February, when we announced our half yearly -- our annual results. So all we have done is implemented that. We have kept the options open. We have always said perhaps where Sadiola is, it makes sense to come up with some sort of consolidation. But having said that, we continue with our dialogue with our joint venture partners and we continue to look at the political landscape in Mali and the gold price environment with regard to the Deeps project.
OP
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from David Haughton of BMO.
DC
David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada
Analyst · BMO
Congratulations on the CEO role. I've got a couple of questions. Firstly, if you could help us think through your key areas of savings to get your $100 per ounce. Are there are a couple of things are looking at in particular that would help you get there?
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · BMO
Okay. It's a lot of areas. Fundamentally, on procurement, that's one aspect. We are looking at mining as well. And in terms of areas of processing, it cuts through right across the chain. And, Tony, do you want to add?
O'
A. M. O'Neill
Analyst · BMO
On top of that, there's reliability. There's a large chunk [ph]. And at some point in time, as Venkat alluded to earlier, we will obviously have to look at the way the organization is structured. And we're actually working on that at the moment.
DC
David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada
Analyst · BMO
Would that also entail shutting in the higher-cost operations, pulling back on the number of ounces produced, for instance, focusing on grade?
O'
A. M. O'Neill
Analyst · BMO
We are focusing on cash flow for the business. But in the $100 an ounce that Venkat referred to, that is taking underlying costs out without shutting businesses.
DC
David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada
Analyst · BMO
Okay. Tony, while you're on the line...
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · BMO
Just to clarify. Over an 18-month period, that's just to clarify.
DC
David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada
Analyst · BMO
Okay. There's 18-month target.
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · BMO
Yes.
DC
David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada
Analyst · BMO
Tony, just following on from your discussion on Obuasi, I heard about the restructure and the change of operator underground, et cetera. Would you be able to give us some guidance as to what you'd expect from Obuasi for 2013 and then into 2014 and what you think the longer-term potential is for the production there?
O'
A. M. O'Neill
Analyst · BMO
I think I'll leave it for Venkat to give the shorter-term guidance. But Obuasi ultimately is a 500,000-ounce-a-year mine. The question is when do you daylight that production.
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · BMO
Yes. With regards to the shorter-term target, David, we have not given out numbers for 2014 and beyond. But if you recall, our outlook was around just close to 290,000 ounces. We're probably going to be around 260,000, 270,000 ounces for Obuasi, roughly, for the year.
DC
David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets Canada
Analyst · BMO
Okay. And thinking now about the DRC, you've got -- Mongbwalu is delayed. Should we think about removing it? Is it just simply a putting it on ice for now? Or is it a complete reconsideration as to whether you want to press ahead or not?
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · BMO
It is certainly putting it on ice for now, David. What we'll have to do is to come back to you within a 3-month period and let you know where we stand on Mongbwalu. At this stage, we have suspended the project area. It's not sterilized. We're exploring the product concession. We should have an update to you within the next 3 to 4 months.
OP
Operator
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Daniel McConvey of Rossport Investments.
DM
Daniel McConvey
Analyst · Rossport Investments
Congratulations on becoming CEO. Two questions, I'll ask them one at a time. First is on the CapEx and operating costs. The pressure on costs is falling off. Now I just wondered where -- and you mentioned procurement. But what areas do you see the most opportunity to reduce CapEx and operating costs, and where? What regions are you seeing the most opportunity right now?
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · Rossport Investments
With regard to procurement, yes, you're absolutely right, the pressure has come off. Where we are focusing on is those commodities, those which we call strategic commodity. Following the 70%, 30%, 10% rule and focusing on those, there we see good value coming through. In addition to that, where -- what we are also looking at is putting in better structures around the operating regions and at corporate to get better negotiations across the commodity chain across the whole group. Tony?
O'
A. M. O'Neill
Analyst · Rossport Investments
And to add to that, you asked about capital. Essentially, we're going back -- for the moment, we've actually stopped all capital other than the project capital that we have. And we're basically going back and reanalyzing every project to take money out of them before we go ahead and approve them.
DM
Daniel McConvey
Analyst · Rossport Investments
Okay. Yes. What I was thinking was, though, just in terms of contracts, et cetera, I just think -- I'm guessing there's a lot more bargains and reduction opportunities with contractors and suppliers.
O'
A. M. O'Neill
Analyst · Rossport Investments
And certainly, that's what's been seen across the globe, the renegotiation of contracts. And we're no different.
DM
Daniel McConvey
Analyst · Rossport Investments
Okay. Second question, Venkat, your strategy is understandable just in terms of keeping the balance sheet strong, getting rid of noncore assets, sticking to basics, that whole bit. The only thing is that, that is something we're getting a lot of right now. And there seems to be a buyer's strike on assets. And although you have a lot of opportunity in Colombia and everything else, it would seem that it's a great time to take advantage of other opportunities for other people divesting assets. Why not look at strengthening the balance sheet, get -- maybe issuing equity for the converts, so doing whatever it takes to take advantage of some of the -- maybe the jewels that are going to come across this period of time when there's a lot of distress in the industry.
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · Rossport Investments
Daniel, I think one genie straight back into the bottle, issuing equity at currently no chance, even if it's for acquisitions. No way. Certainly, from a balance sheet point of view, it's not that we are constrained. Really, the decision is driven around how you can extract better quality out of this portfolio. What we do have an idea that this music is being played by everyone of the companies, and that's fair comment to make. But in our case, we've got 2 projects bringing on over 500,000 ounces of gold within a 6- to 9-month horizon. And all of these coming in at around cash cost of just below $700 an ounce. That brings in the free cash flow we need. And this is coming in without any CapEx blowouts. And I think that's fairly unique. From AGA's perspective, we do have that lever, which we pulled into 2014. If we generate cash and there is surplus after satisfying our balance sheet requirement, returns to shareholders and if there's a value-accretive asset there which we can get into but at an entry level at low cost, we could look at it. But certainly, putting equity on the table for an acquisition now, no chance.
OP
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, our last question is a follow-up. It comes from Henry (sic) [Harry] Mateer of Barclays.
HD
Harry Mateer - Barclays Capital, Research Division
Analyst · Barclays
Just one more for me. Can you give us a sense for what pro forma for Tropicana, pro forma for Kibali comers online? What is your sustaining capital needs look like a couple of years out?
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · Barclays
Can I come back to you on that one, Harry? Because you're asking for forward-looking sustaining CapEx. I do have it, but right now with me. We can come back to you. But chunk of the CapEx is really in the project capital. The sustaining capital shouldn't be a huge number. But I'd rather give you the correct estimates going out into the future rather than guessing right now. Most of the capital is, in fact, front-loaded. The sustaining capital fees is not a big number. What we do have in Kibali is probably the capital that goes into '14, which is underground capital, which is already in there in terms of the numbers in the slide, which we have put in the back.
OP
Operator
Operator
Gentlemen, that was our final question. Do you have any closing comments?
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · Barclays
Dylan, other than to say thank you very much to everyone who was on the call, we look forward to speaking to you in 3 months time with hopefully further updates in some of these key milestones.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you, sir. On behalf of AngloGold Ashanti, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.