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AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU)

Q3 2013 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 6, 2013

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Transcript

Stewart Bailey

Management

All right, good morning, everybody. And welcome to our presentation of our Q3 results, which is for the 3 months to the end of September. Before we get started, just as usual, as we always do, just to start with our safety procedures, in the unlikely event of an emergency, sirens will sound, move to our nearest exit points, which are clearly marked in the room and our safety wardens will take over after -- immediately after that. Just moving on to our normal Safe Harbor statement, which I'll run through very briefly, certain statements contained in this document, other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, those concerning economic outlook for the gold mining industry, expectations regarding gold prices, production, cash cost, cost savings and other operating results, return on the equity, productivity improvements, growth prospects and outlook of AngloGold Ashanti's operations, individually or in the aggregate, including the achievement of project milestones, commencement and completion of commercial operations of certain of AngloGold Ashanti's exploration and production projects and the completion of acquisitions and dispositions, AngloGold Ashanti's liquidity and capital resources and capital expenditures and outcome and consequences of any potential or pending litigation or regulatory proceedings or environmental issues are forward-looking statements regarding our operations, economic performance and financial condition. These forward-looking statements or forecasts involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cost AngloGold Ashanti's actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those anticipated results, performance or achievements expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements and forecast are reasonable, no insurance -- no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as…

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

Thank you, Stewart. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. As Stewart mentioned, we have our full executive committee here, team and members of management as well. And welcome to everyone. Before we go into the quarterly results, if we can start off with the 5 key messages, which we have been laying as a foundation since the start of the year, the 5 key messages being during these tough times in industry, we have a dedicated management team and the people to drive the results whilst we will remain focused on safety and our social license to operate. Message #2, we have proactively and decisively moved to address any fears around our financial flexibility and our balance sheet. And our newly appointed Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Duffy, will walk you through what has actually transpired during the quarter. The third key message is we are tackling head-on optimizing all aspects of our cost, nothing is sacrosanct, whether it's operating cost overheads, capital spend, to improve our sustainable long-term cash flow. The fourth key pillar is, during the quarter, we saw 2 new mines, as we call them, twins, going into production roughly at the same time 2 days apart, Tropicana and Kibali in different parts of the world. We will keep improving the quality of the portfolio whilst we start to strip marginal ounces slowly from the asset mix. Finally, it is not about the short-term, it is not about the long-term, it is both about the short, medium and the long-term. We are keeping our long-term optionality intact, using lower-cost options and a very focused exploration portfolio. What do these 5 pillars do for AngloGold Ashanti? One, it will help us ride through any gold price shocks, which we would see, it'll improve our cash generation as we go into…

Richard N. Duffy

Management

Thank you, Venkat. Total earnings attributable to ordinary shareholders were $1 million for the quarter, which compares to our June quarter loss of USD 2.2 billion. As you may recall, the June quarter was impacted by asset and stock filing payments of $2.4 billion after-tax. Adjusted headline earnings for this quarter were $576 million, which includes a realized fair value gain of $567 million on the mandatory bond conversion into AGA equity. This compares to the adjusted headline earning loss of $135 million last quarter. In order to remove the noise around the Q2 impairment in our quarter 3 fair value gain on the $789 million mandatory convertible bond, early settlement of our $733 million, May 2014 convertible bond and the new issue of our $1.25 billion, 7-year bond, we have normalized our adjusted headline earnings as set up in the table on the slide. In addition to these adjustments, we have also stripped out our corporate retrenchment and termination charges, and operational redundancy costs, resulting in normalized adjusted headline earnings of $110 million. For comparative purposes, we have also normalized our adjusted headline earnings for quarter 2, if we can go to the next slide please? Showing a profit of $9 million. The waterfall graph on the slide shows the negative impact of the 7% lower gold price at $57 million, $15 million associated with higher wages and winter power tariffs in South Africa, as Venkat mentioned, together with an additional $30 million in incremental finance charges associated with our $1.25 billion new bond. These are more than offset by the $27 million savings on our corporate and exploration costs, a $25 million favorable impact on the back of weaker local currencies and just under $150 million in improved operational performance, resulting in an underlying quarter-on-quarter improvement of over…

Mike P. O'hare

Management

Thanks, Richard. And good morning to everybody. As Venkat has mentioned, the region's performance in terms of gold improved by 7% quarter-on-quarter. What I find pleasing in these results is that underground production actually increased 10% quarter-on-quarter. And if you remember, last quarter, I said we would be focusing on some of those basic mining practices that improved your gold production. And it's pleasing to note that the first area that we decided to concentrate on, which is phase utilization, in other words, how often do we blast, improved 12% quarter-on-quarter. We've been tackling the dilution problem from the stock width [ph] angle, and we've managed to improve the dilution. In other words, we have less dilution by 4% quarter-on-quarter. In the West Wits area, which is the first slide, our production improved by 10% with both increases in production both in Mponeng and TauTona. The mining volumes improved by 10% at Mponeng and this, together with a 6% reduction in stock width [ph] offset a slight grade decrease and allowed us to improve the production there. However, grade management at Mponeng remains one of our biggest focus areas as far as the underground production is concerned. Despite the cost headwinds during the quarter, we've been able to keep our costs stable in rand terms on a unit basis across the region. If we move to the Vaal River area, again, I think Venkat has talked about the safety performance in the Vaal River region. But I'm very proud of the results that the guys have produced during the last quarter. From a production point of view, a stellar performance from Moab Khotsong during the quarter saw them increase their gold production by over 40%. 2 factors caused this to happen, an increased rate of blasting, in other words, blasting…

Ron W. Largent

Management

Thanks, Mike. Good morning to everyone. I'd like to spend a few minutes on discussing the performance of the Continental Africa region and the Americas region. I won't comment on safety as Venkat took us through the safety performance of the operations. And I'd like to go directly into the Continental Africa region. Quarter-on-quarter, had good increases of 40,000 ounces for the Continental Africa region. I think we can talk about volume and grade and I have to go into each operation to tear that 40,000 ounces apart. And probably to me, the most exciting piece was the drop of about $80 per ounce in operating cost. This doesn't necessarily have foreign-exchange included because of the currency we work under, so it's either cost redemptions and/or volume ranges [ph] that will drive that cost down. In Geita, I think we've seen improvement, it was 12% in production. We must remember that quarter 2, we were impacted by the signal replacement. So there's -- there was a volume variance in Geita. But we did see the improvement in tonnage going through the Geita plant. Siguiri increased by 11% to 69,000 ounces. And really, that was sustaining the good production volume that went through the mill in quarter 2, but we're able to improve on some great profiles in the Siguiri mine. Iduapriem, I think the big -- it was an improvement, and we had like an all-time production record, but we've seen cost come down considerably. One volume, but then there was some cost management at Iduapriem. At Obuasi, continuing to show improvements in the trajectory. I would go -- I won't comment here. I would go to the next slide on Obuasi. And we've included the Slide with 4 major metrics. And I think -- not that we -- they're…

Graham J. Ehm

Management

Thanks, Ron. I'll cover Australia but Australia was -- I'll talk initially about Sunrise Dam, and then move onto Kibali. And then onto Tropicana. Now this slide really talks to Sunrise Dam; from next quarter we will start to include production coming from Tropicana. At Sunrise Dam, we saw a 24% increase in grade. The grade came from the Crown Pillar which is a high-grade area at the bottom of the pit. We're into final mining of the Crown Pillar and then we'll see the completion of open pit mining at Sunrise Dam afterwards. It's been a very successful 16 years from that open pit. Costs were down commensurately, mostly due to grade, but also due to quite a lot of work underground in driving productivity and cost. So the end of this year, we'll see the end of the open pit at Sunrise Dam, and Sunrise Dam has been transitioning to an underground mine over the last few years. And from the beginning of next year, it will be an underground operation only supplemented with the surface stockpiles. We've prepared -- we've been preparing for this change for quite a number of years, understanding the underground oil body and dealing with mining methods and mining productivity. Since 2012, we've seen a -- we've increased the underground production rate from 1.4 million. We're now starting to push to 2 million tons per annum underground. The plant has a capacity there's about 3.6 million, so the balance of that will come from existing surface stockpiles. Now moving onto Kibali. Kibali is a joint venture, as I'm sure you're aware, between AngloGold and Randgold, based at 45%, and Sakima. Randgold is the manager, but my comments in regard to Kibali will be in regard to 100% terms. With a really big push…

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

Thanks, Graham. Just to summarize, realizing that I'm the only one between you and question time. Certainly, what we've been able to show is what a team when it comes together can do, we're a strong believer that when you look at AngloGold Ashanti, you're not looking at one individual, you're looking at a team, whether it's David, on the sustainability side or Italia in the help she has given in terms of reorganizing the entire organizational design; Charles, on the corporate finance and the strategy side; Rihad, group general counsel who has got her teeth into the indirect spend with the team; Yedwah, on the government relations; Richard Duffy, on finance, and then to our 3 key operators, Mike O'hare, who has had all the challenges thrown at him in South Africa, but delivered a spectacular result; Ron, who originally was just managing the Americas, had to transition to pick up the Continental Africas; and Graham, who managed to deliver our first greenfield operation outside of South Africa, plus their respective teams and every one of our employees and contractors have pulled together, with an element of luck from God Almighty, we have actually managed to do -- deliver a pretty good quarter. Just if you recall -- if you look at this particular site, over the last 2 quarters, we been articulating our messages and direction, it's very simple in what we are trying to do, and we have started to score some runs on the board, ahead of 2014, if you remember, most of the changes were going to come through in 2014. And the real debate was how many runs we can get on the board ahead of that. Importantly, on the revenue announcement piece, we have delivered Tropicana and through our partner Rangold, Goldborak, Kibali,…

Unknown Analyst

Management

Just a quick one. Given the expectation of improved cash flows into next year and beyond, what's your current thinking on dividends?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

If you recall, we did pay a dividend in the -- at the end of the first quarter of 2013. What we did say in the results call in the last quarter that hasn't changed, the board will be meeting in February and will review our financial performance for the year, look at where the debt levels will be, in addition to look at our business plans and the gold price outlook, and we'll make a firm decision in terms of the dividends, but certainly, the cash flows are improving as we go into 2014.

Stewart Bailey

Management

Allan? Allan J. Cooke - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: I have 2 questions, the 1 question that I have is perhaps in 2 parts, when we look at the cuts and stain business CapEx, and a higher grades coming through from some of your mines and perhaps like [indiscernible] all of your mines, but at your key mines in particular, are you cutting back on development or have there been deferrals of any stripping projects, of any of the pits, underground development, Mike O'hare, are you developing less than you were previously with these cuts in staying business CapEx? And then on the grade, as we look at higher grades, I guess, the first fear that comes to mind is are you high-grading anywhere? Is that sustainable, the higher grades that we see coming through at the mines that you mentioned, Ron, so because obviously, longer-term, you cut back your dividend now, you high-grade now, these are twin evils that will have consequences in the future in terms of your lack of mine plants.

Mike P. O'hare

Management

Thanks. Allan, I remember I had a boss many years ago, Ken Dix, who cut ORD and 2 years later is a general manager at Southeby because of that. At certain areas, I realize what happens when you cut ORD in the wrong places. So the ORD we're cutting is being to the East and the West of [indiscernible] mine. Both of which we believe we've reached the boundary of where the grade, the cutoff grade, in other words, so we legitimately can't stop that ORD. At Moab Khotsong we looked really carefully because that was the mine that was bleeding a lot of cash, we looked really carefully at what development we've done, and on 2 of the levels, we're at least 1 year ahead of where the mining plan needs to be. So and it's an area I watched really, really carefully. As far as grade is concerned, the great kick at Moab, I think. Dave and I were talking this morning, and I had been promising to get to that averages of the grade and we eventually mining in some of those sweeter spots at Moab in the lower mine. It probably will normalize, it will come down again over time with 2 really high-grade raise lines. But it is part of the mine plan. It's difficult to high-grade in the left go. Your mind isn't really in front of you.

Ron W. Largent

Management

Just comment on the development in the international space, it hasn't been reduced at all, so there's every operation always wants more, right? So but we have not reduced off the 2013 plan and going into '14, actually there's more development meters planned in 2013. From a high-grade perspective, no, there is no high-grade going on, what I'll would say, just to touch on the couple of them, the Cuiaba grade increase was planned, we actually wanted to get into it in the second quarter. And we didn't get there. At Obuasi, the grade increase has been a reduction in dilution, which is part of the plan or the key to turning that asset around. And then at Iduapriem, the higher grades were from the open pit that we had been modeling where I guess the miners have extracted and we've seen some volume in and some grade variances that were very positive. So there absently, in my opinion, there is no high-grade, high-grading going on. But I think we can manage our mines optimally from a standpoint of understanding and getting our plans -- Cuiaba have higher grades in the fourth quarter also. Higher than the average resource grades. So I don't see any high-grading going on.

Stewart Bailey

Management

[indiscernible]

Graham J. Ehm

Management

The reason for grade increase in Sunrise Dam was really to do with the mine schedule and the mining of the Crown Pillar at the bottom of the pit. So that's a benefit in quarter 3. You'll see the major benefit comes through in quarter 4, and after that, we're in the underground mines, so there's no elevation of cutoff grade since we didn't try to high grade at all..

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

Actually, if I can comment it directly. It's very [indiscernible] but to give on a humorous note an example. Frank, you're in a battle with your wife. When you're mining below the reserve grade, they say, "Hey, why don't you go to your reserve grade?" When you start to get to your grade, they say, "Hey, are you high grading?" It's not a battle you can win easily. But rest assured, couple of points. Firstly, the long-term optionalities is firmly intact, we will not take shortcuts, and we do realize that is a compromise you have to make in terms of what happens to your debt levels, et cetera. We would not take any terms of compromise, in terms of development or stay in businesses CapEx or asset integrity, that's the first aspect, and secondly, you got to remember, in Ashanti, if you take your memory back to 2001 when the banks were running the company, we have a force to effectively cut down development and look at grades, that has actually taught me, as a CFO at that stage, what could go wrong if you have to take shortcuts, so that's a mistake, which would never happen, even when I was a CFO at AGA, and least to say, particularly as CEO, so even as part of the budget, and business planning process, we are very, very careful, and all of them, that the 3 operators here, and in particular, Graham, is watching what development flexibility we have and where to stay in business capital has to go, and in terms of asset integrity. Where we have become smarter is how do we actually do more with less, and that's the real focus.

Unknown Analyst

Management

[indiscernible] never an issue, I think, mining above from an industry perspective, mining above reserve grade isn't a worry for many for some time. And then just lastly, if I may, Kibali, you talked to what you do fourth quarter at Tropicana, any color on what you're expecting in terms of Kibali's production as they ramp up through this quarter please?

Graham J. Ehm

Management

The team expected they'll all hit 60,000 ounces, 100% terms for quarter 4 for or better. So far, on track for that, and they also have got a ramp-up period to go through, again, similar sorts of issues to what I've talked to at Sunrise Dam. But we'll go into that ramp up, that's the sort of numbers I should hit.

Stewart Bailey

Management

Derryn and then Adrian.

Derryn Maade - Renaissance Capital, Research Division

Management

This is Derryn Maade from HSBC. I'd just like to ask a little bit more about the unprofitable ounces that you mentioned in the presentation, do you have an idea as to what operations in the portfolio you'd class now as non-core, and what are your plans around those operations?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

I'll pick that up. We are not being specific intentionally at this stage because the only time we want to actually start categorizing them is when we have actually socialized what happens when the respective each [ph] of those operations with all of the stakeholders, But certainly, the one's we have identified are there in the public domain, Navachab was an example in terms of Namibia; we are quite advanced in terms of the sales process that are 3 potential bidders who have been shortlisted, and we are in discussions with the 3 of them, Yatela has gone into closure, along with our joint venture partner Irongold, we are managing the closure program in respect of Irongold, and Mike has already bought Saluka, under the management of TauTona, so we'll progressively be looking at it, but where we'll be careful is we won't be greedy in terms of waiting for the last dollar, in terms of value, but at the same time, we wouldn't be panicking and just to pick the box, dispose of an asset for a value less than what we can get if we were to mine it out. So it will be a careful trade-off, which we will do on a quarter-by-quarter basis.

Stewart Bailey

Management

Adrian?

Adrian Hammond - BNP Paribas, Research Division

Management

Adrian, BNP, just to hear from Darren's question, can you cut production at existing operations rather than talking of selling assets? What is your ability to actually reduce marginal ounces there? Is that something you're looking at?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

It is something we are looking at as part of our business planning process. In fact, Graham, Ron and Mike have been busy for the last month looking at each of those mine plants, re-engineering them, looking at some of the marginal loans and removing them. We're not fixated on a topline production target going into next year. It's a trade-off between your production, your cash cost and your capital expenditure and that trade-off is ongoing. And we hope to complete our budgets going into next year, early December, so we will actually announce those targets going into 2014 when we announced our 2013 results, and as always, we'll give you a breakdown by region.

Adrian Hammond - BNP Paribas, Research Division

Management

And just one more question, your guidance for steady state cash costs at Kibali and Tropicana, are those still intact?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

You want to pick it up?

Graham J. Ehm

Management

Yes, we provided an update, I think about 6 months ago, in terms of operating costs, CapEx costs, so those production guidelines are still in place. And likewise, for Kibali, that was updated recently in AngloGold terms, in view on the final cost, our share was about 982 million ounces being around 270,000 ounces a year over those first few years and cash costs around 700 or less be so there's no change in that guidance.

Stewart Bailey

Management

Brendan?

Unknown Analyst

Management

Brendan Ryan, Business Day, couple of questions on the reef boring please. From the look at it, you would seem to need pretty uniform reef conditions for this to work. So question 1 is to what extent, do you have any idea at this stage of what extent you can roll this out through your mines and give me an idea of how much production could eventually come out of your saprolite mines using this technique out of the total, and then second of all, can give some idea of the cost of it? Cost of dollars per ounce, cost to produce a gold using the system?

Mike P. O'hare

Management

Our first target is to take areas that we haven't got in our mine plan. So we're targeting high-grade areas like the sharp pillar at TauTona, and which is why the grades we mine in there are so high. We will be rolling the test out to some of the lower grade reefs at Great Noligwa, specifically, so for instance, we've a reef there called the Sea reef, which if we could mine it this way, we'd produce probably at about 50 to 60 grams a tonne, and we have over 6 million ounces of resource in that particular area. So those are the areas that we're targeting. We finished the budgeting process and we -- I think we should announce that when we finish the budget [indiscernible] is to what our ramp up plan is, in terms of how much gold we plan to produce per annum on the low side and on the up side, so we'll probably announce that when we announce the budgets next year. In terms of costs, really, the big thing is to be competitive with the conventional mining methods, so what we've done, we've tackled it from a different angle, and said if we -- if this is ground that we won't get out anyway, we need to make sure that we're mining high-grade to cover whatever costs. So we're making a good margin on the gold we're mining currently with this method. Remember, it's very difficult for us to say to you now, but cost per tonne given that we are in a testing phase. So I think March next year, we go operational on another site, and by June, July, we've got operational on the third site, so, I think, by then, we'll have a fair idea of what kind of cost per tonne. The major we're after at the moment is try and get the time it takes to -- for each hole down to about 2 days per hole, which is then competitive with our current conventional mining method.

Unknown Analyst

Management

I'm actually more interested in cost per ounce, I mean you put a lot of emphasis on your cost per ounce measures, I mean, do you have some idea of where -- what you might be able to produce gold at in those terms from the system?

Mike P. O'hare

Management

If we've to finalize those numbers through the budget...

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

Really that issue here is, you've got to get -- if you were to say if you were only going to get 35 kilograms of gold from 16 holes, admittedly, given the CapEx involved, you won't be able to make the economics work. The key here is getting scaled. And that's what the team is working on at the moment. Where you can make it economical given the capital intensity is by eliminating dilution and getting scale. So that's where we want to pull it down, it would be capital-intensive, but the unit operating cost will come down, significantly. And we want to get the all-in sustaining cost coming down as well, and that's what we're working to. It's unfair to estimate what the operating cost would be when you're on a testing phase, on a steady production phase, looking years ahead.

Patrick Mann - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Management

It's Patrick Mann from Deutsche Bank. Just 2 quick questions, if I may. First of all, with the coming to the end of project CapEx on Kibali and Tropicana, are you seeing your net debt position coming down next year and can you give us a sense of how quickly that might happen. And secondly, do you foresee any tail risk of -- from a labor perspective in South Africa? Any chance of AMCU trying to call a strike at operations, so they've got a majority?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

I'll pick up both questions, if I may. Firstly, the question on net debt, obviously, is linked to the gold price, and you know what our leverage is on the gold price, certainly, we will start to see a reduction in our project capital spend going into next year. We're not putting numbers out yet until we actually get our business plans completed to a high degree of confidence. But certainly, looking at 2 key projects, coming down and spend, bear in mind, Kibali will still have an element of spend going into next year as it continuous with the underground and the sulphide secured for the first 4 months of the following year. And we are doing the CC&V expansion. So certainly, the project capital expenditure would come down and the cash generation would start to improve. but we don't give estimates in terms of what the net debt position would be. But importantly, as you can see, with the EBITDA currently in place, without taking into account $0.01 of EBITDA coming from Tropicana and Kibali, we're still at about 2.22x, so you can imagine what it does when Tropicana and Kibali's EBITDA comes through. The secondary [indiscernible] with regard to AMCU is, we do have a wage agreement in place. The wage agreement was negotiated with everyone, including AMCU, yes, admittedly, AMCU, did not sign the wage agreement, but importantly, we have extended and we are implementing the wage agreement across all of the unions. In other words, AMCU employees are also getting -- AMCU members are also getting the benefit of the wage increases, we are also implementing other aspects of the wage agreement at this stage. Yes, there is comments we have noticed in the media, and references that AMCU reserves its rights. At the end of the day, we believe that the agreement is binding, and we have to leave it at that.

Stewart Bailey

Management

Andrew?

Andrew Byrne - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Management

Andrew Byrne from Barclays. Two questions, potentially, to Richard. You mentioned just kind of you just cautioned look -- there's going to be distortions from accounting treatments in 4Q. Could you just maybe give us a heads-up of the main ones that we may have missed. And then also you said that budgets are due at the start of December, could you tell us what gold price you're using for those budgets going into 2014?

Richard N. Duffy

Management

So on the first one, what we're saying is, as you know, in quarter 4, being the last quarter of the financial year, we do all of our yearend adjustments. So you typically do see some noise coming through. Also we have typically lumpy cost profiles in quarter 4. So there's no -- at this stage, we're not signaling anything specific, we just saying -- exercise some caution because it is typically, in the last quarter, a little bit choppy. Given that we did, obviously, have a significant impairment in quarter 2, and that the fact that we've take out and converted the mandatory convertible, and early redeemed the other $733 million bond, I think, a lot of that noise is also through the systems. So it's not -- we're not putting our hand up to say we're expecting anything significant, we're just saying exercise some caution, and don't project, for example, on the costs of linear improvement through quarter 4, because we expect a little bit of lumpiness. From the assumptions for the budget, in line with taking a prudent approach to managing the business, and align with the cost measures that Venkat has led. For next year, we have received gold price -- a gold price assumptions of $1,100 an ounce. And we then lift that in subsequent years back towards $1,300. So we continuing to keep the pressure on the business to ensure that we are optimizing all of our operations and we have the right cost structure in place around $1,100 gold and then we step it up beyond that. Yes, also to Venkat's point, having whispered in my ear, is around sensitivity next year, obviously, with the gold price where it is currently, we run sensitivities of $1,300 and higher to ensure that we optimizing value at the current gold price as well.

Stewart Bailey

Management

Anymore questions? All right. I think that should more or less do it. Thank you very much. We'll do this all again in 3 months. Thank you.