Earnings Labs

AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU)

Q4 2012 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 20, 2013

$90.73

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the AngloGold Ashanti Fourth Quarter and Year End 2012 Conference. [Operator Instructions] Please also note that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Stewart Bailey. Please go ahead, sir.

Stewart Bailey

Analyst

Thanks, Dylan, and apologies for the short delay here. We just had a slight technical hitch here in Johannesburg. But welcome to the fourth quarter and full year 2012 results presentation. As is customary, we've got Mark Cutifani who will make some introductory comments; Venkat will talk us through the financials; and then Mark is going to offer some concluding comments and as well as the outlook numbers as well. As we normally do, I'm going to quickly whiz through the disclaimers, Safe Harbor statement, and then we'll get right into it. Certain statements made in this communication, other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, those concerning economic outlook for the -- of the gold mining industry, expectations regarding gold prices, production, cash costs and other operating results, growth prospects and outlook of AngloGold Ashanti's operations, individually or in the aggregate, including the achievements of project milestones, completion and commencement of commercial operations of certain of AngloGold Ashanti's exploration and production projects, and completion of acquisitions and dispositions, AngloGold Ashanti's liquidity and capital resources and capital expenditure and the outcome and consequence of any potential and pending litigation or regulatory proceedings or environmental issues are forward-looking statements regarding AngloGold Ashanti's operations, economic performance and financial condition. These forward-looking statements and forecasts involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause AngloGold Ashanti's actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from the anticipated results, performance or achievements expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements or forecasts. Although AngloGold Ashanti believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements or forecasts are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in forward-looking statements as a result of, among other factors,…

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · Scotiabank

Thanks very much, Stewart. Again, sorry about the delay guys, we had to shift rooms due to a technical glitch. I just want to start off obviously in talking to the fact that [indiscernible] mostly making a move. We do have a global switch process underway led by the board, and that process has started and the board will update the market at the next quarterly results in terms of where we are and how quickly they believe the process will be completed. In the meantime, Venkat and Tony O'Neill are in the joint CEO chair, sharing responsibilities: Tony, focusing on operations and explorations; and Venkat on finance and corporate affairs. Given the continuity of the team, Venkat and Tony's understanding and actual central roles in developing and executing the strategy, there shouldn't be any major changes other than we continue to focus on how we can get more value through to our share price, which we'll talk about a little bit later in terms of the things that we're doing and what we're trying to do improve and stimulate the performance in that direction. As I said, the strategic direction remains in place and the deep bench of executive talent that we do have in place remains secure. And the good news is in the last 4 years, we've had less than 2.9% turnover in the team, so we've been able to build a good team. We've kept them to get strategic directions pretty well set. Obviously, there are things we got to think about, put the teams in place and certainly continuing to build the foundations for the future and in delivery today. On the fourth quarter results, and I'm on Page 5 or Overhead 5 in your presentations. The highlights for the quarter: Lowest injury frequency rate…

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · Scotiabank

Thank you very much, Mark. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'd like to cover the following 4 areas in today's presentation: Fourth quarter and full year financial results; then moving on to cash flow for the fourth quarter and full year 2012; then balance sheet; and conclude with other financial and accounting matters. Starting off with the fourth quarter and full year financial results. As flagged during our third quarter results call, the fourth quarter 2012 financial result took the brunt of the unprotected strike in South Africa and the adverse financial impact of mine development contracted change at Obuasi. Adjusted headline earnings were therefore down at $7 million or USD 0.02 per share. This level of adjusted headline earnings was after taking into account the adverse impact of the 2 events mentioned above. One, the impact of the strike in South Africa, which eroded $208 million of earnings on an after-tax basis, and the change-over of mine development contract toward Obuasi and other specific one-off costs at Obuasi that had an impact of $44 million. For the full year, our adjusted headline earnings were $924 million or $2.39. In addition to the impact of the strike and the contract change at Obuasi, the full year adjusted headline earnings were also impacted by the high incidence of safety stoppages which we experienced in South Africa during the first half of the year. If one were to exclude the impact of the South African strike only, our adjusted headline earnings on a pro forma basis would have been USD 1.13 billion or USD 2.94. Because typically, when we have a strike, you just don't lose the margin on the ounces, you lose the revenue and you continue to incur a large number of standing costs. For the full year 2012, our…

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · Scotiabank

Thanks, Venkat. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm just going to do a few -- just talk very briefly to some projects and how we're going on integrating some of the recent acquisitions. As I said earlier, we've made 5 significant acquisitions, and for us, significant is something that is all relative compared to what some people have paid, one would argue that, they're significant or insignificant, but I would argue that in terms of value creation, they are being very significant compared to relative valuations. So in looking at our first -- our most recent one, the Mine Waste Solutions acquisition, you'll see on Page 28, there are a couple of charts there. The top chart shows you production performance since we took over the asset. And in that case, we are running -- you can see, we're running about 1,200 tonnes a day. Since we took over, we've improved that operation by 20% with the application of our operating models. So we've made a significant improvement in the production. At the same time, when you look at the bottom chart, what we want is the dots to be low because that actually reflects cyanide consumption. And you'll see that we've made, based on where we were, around a 25% reduction in cyanide and other reagent consumptions. So we've seen a 20% production kick-up and a 15% unit costs reduction in the very short time that we've been managing the asset. So the team's done a great job, Mike O'Hare and the crew have done a great job. And we expect the asset to require some capital and some moneys in the first 2 years. Well the great news is we're cash positive already based on that improving performance. And whilst the asset will take some cleaning up on the environmental…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Tanya Jakusconek of Scotiabank.

Tanya M. Jakusconek - Scotiabank Global Banking and Markets, Research Division

Analyst · Scotiabank

And just a few questions that I have, either yourself or maybe Venkat can answer some of these. Just on some of the targets that were provided on production and capital, could you give us a bit more in terms of the breakdown per region for 2013? So that's my first part of my question. And then the second part would be, just the tax rate. And then just a comment on the dividend, where you see that going?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · Scotiabank

If I can pick it up, Tanya, in terms of the total production guidance of between 4.1 and 4.4, we're looking at South Africa at around roughly 1.4 million ounces. Continental Africa, again, roughly a similar sort of number; Australia, around the 400 mark, and America is around 1 million mark. That's really the split in terms of the regional production between those 4 regions. Then your second question was around -- if you remind me again, after production was around...

Tanya M. Jakusconek - Scotiabank Global Banking and Markets, Research Division

Analyst · Scotiabank

Yes. Just on the CapEx, 2.1 billion, maybe you can give us some of the key items in there.

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · Scotiabank

Yes. If I can give you the breakdown at the high level on CapEx of $2.1 billion, $1.1 billion is project capital and the rest of it is basically between sustaining capital asset integrity, deferred stripping, which is capitalized at around $118 million, and the other normal staying business, CapEx, et cetera. If the balance -- if you look at the project capital, the bulk of the amount is actually in the DRC and Tropicana around roughly $400 million is in respect to Congo and around $250 million is in respect of Tropicana. Americas has around roughly $260 million and the balance of around $199 million is in respect of South Africa. With term of effective tax rate, which is your final question, there is -- we are not anticipating any material change in the tax rates. The only thing you've got to bear in mind is this particular year, 2012, the year just gone, benefited from some certain tax credits both from a legislation point of view and also in terms of some of the tax planning we have done. So I would basically say, in 2013, around 35% could be a good factor, but bear in mind, South Africa doesn't follow a linear tax rate, it follows the gold tax curve, so you will see some swings and roundabouts there. But around about 35%-ish, you are not going to be too far out.

Tanya M. Jakusconek - Scotiabank Global Banking and Markets, Research Division

Analyst · Scotiabank

And sorry, I had a question on the dividend. I know it was cut with the -- in Q3, the announcement was made. Just maybe how you see the dividend going forward given your cash flow. And then I had a last question. I think the guidance or the view last year had been that by 2015, we would be towards the 5.4 to 5.6 million ounce range in production, and I just wonder how you see 2015 going out?

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · Scotiabank

Tanya, it's Mark here. On dividends, Tanya, what we've said is we want to continue to pay dividends. We have -- I would expect that you'll see the dividends held in the accounted range, although obviously, the board will opine again on that against the progress on the projects, but everything looks good so far. If you get a bid of a run on the gold price, then I believe that the team will look favorably on, obviously, throwing a bit more the shareholders' way, but the focus is on delivering dividends. Once we get through these projects, the idea will be to kick the dividends up. Because we believe that with the quality of the portfolio as we get these projects bidded in, then yield becomes a very important conversation here. That's why we're going the way we're going in terms of the projects, so steady as she goes. If we get a bit of a run on the gold price, we'll kick it up. We certainly wouldn't pull the dividends too quickly with a bit of weakening because, don't forget, we're on the bottom half of the total cost curve in the industries. So we're one of the best protected, but we are spending money on some new projects at the moment, so we've got to be -- we've got to steer carefully. And...

Tanya M. Jakusconek - Scotiabank Global Banking and Markets, Research Division

Analyst · Scotiabank

But would it be safe to say -- sorry, Mark, that once Kibali comes in and once Tropicana comes in and the capital there is behind you, then you'd be at a better place to increase the dividend?

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · Scotiabank

Absolutely, Tanya. We're at about a 1.3% yield off a very low share price. So we'd be looking to improve both absolute and yield terms once those 2 projects are in. So we understand the sensitivity and the desire [indiscernible] will be better on that front. On the 5.5, Tanya, I think you've got to -- there has been a few moving parts. Don't forget we've not committed to Mali on the basis of the political changes and our desire as a company not to jump in with both feet given the changing circumstance in Mali. So there's 200 pushback there. Mongbwalu, we've slowed right up, again, because of the gold price weakening, and obviously, the strikes in South Africa caused us to react very quickly so we pushed that back and we actually believe that's prudent to do that, so there is about 130,000 to 150,000 ounces there. And in terms of South Africa, what we said very publicly, against the original production targets, we are more focused on EBITDA or financial returns, and the need to make sure we're making real production. So a 1.4 target this year, declines on an annual basis around 100,000 ounces in the next couple of years, so you can pull that back somewhere between 300 and 500, so those -- they're the main adjustments that we see to the 2015 numbers. So it's a little bit early to give you a new number, but they are the things that we've been very clear on in terms of what's adjusted. What we are focused on is protecting the balance sheet, making sure our returns are solid, that our financial delivery is solid, that we're throwing money back to the shareholders. And so the key number is not, for us, the production number, it's actually trying to get that EBITDA base from $3 billion to $4 billion is a more important focus for us than the absolute production number. But just to answer your question, that's where the key movements have been.

Tanya M. Jakusconek - Scotiabank Global Banking and Markets, Research Division

Analyst · Scotiabank

And just, Mark, just some the South African perspective, so going down to about 1 million ounces, you would say, in about 2 15, 2 16, will that be fair?

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · Scotiabank

We are looking at about 1.2, Tanya. The one thing that we think might help us that is turning out to be -- when we took the Board on the ground to have a look at the new horizontal raise drilling, and so if we put that stuff into remnants where we've got very high-grade gold that we would not have otherwise recovered. We think that gives us some potential but we're not forecasting it. We will have an operating unit by the end of the year, but it's turning out to be very interesting. And so I think that's one you should track because if that's successful, it will be our most successful exploration project because we're chasing 100 million ounces. And if we can get that working, and I don't think there's any reason why it shouldn't work, then there's a whole range of remnant pillars we can access that changes the game in South Africa quite significantly.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Patrick Chidley of the HSBC.

Patrick T. Chidley - HSBC, Research Division

Analyst · the HSBC

Mark, I just -- going back to your comments about watching carefully what's going on with Goldfields and Sibanye and the obvious implications for AngloGold. Do you think that AngloGold maybe has a better case to split than Goldfields? And in many ways, you've got significant international business and maybe it would be a possibility to have a cleaner split there that would maybe excite investors in looking at the relative valuation of your company versus North American companies, it would seem to be an obvious thing to pursue.

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · the HSBC

Patrick, I'm going to be very careful the way I answer this because I'm an outgoing CEO opining on what the Board and the executives might consider as appropriate strategies going forward. But I will make a comment that's consistent with what I've been saying, so it's no different than what I've said. In looking at the Goldfields, they are 2 -- they've still got South African businesses in both parts of the portfolio. If we were to consider this as a good option, we would, I would think, look at a much cleaner split of the businesses to try and derive value from that type of split. So I do differentiate, and I made that comment some months ago, because we couldn't see where the value lift would come apart from the different character of the assets. They have, obviously, one that needs a fair bit of restructuring and the other was South Deep in their -- gives them some resources and reserves to work with. So we would probably think differently about that type of split in our context because we've got a much bigger, and quite frankly, competitive portfolio. I mean, if you look at our Americas business against Humana, holy moley, I know which one I'd like to own. And having the time right in [indiscernible] at about 11 billion. So I've been very clear on that. If you look at our -- we'll be up near 1 million ounces. And we've got Colombia, it's a great asset, that in its own right should be trading north of 11 billion in my view. So we're being aware of those possibilities could go. But to be fair to the Board, there's a range of options the team is looking at, including the existing strategy and getting better…

Patrick T. Chidley - HSBC, Research Division

Analyst · the HSBC

Great. Just one little follow-up then on the technology, the horizontal raise board drilling technology. When -- if you got an operating unit by the end of the year, how soon do you think you'd be able to sort of say, well, this is the economics of this process and we've got it down pat 5 years away or?

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · the HSBC

No, no, I think much shorter than that, Patrick. What we saw -- I think when we started this, like all things, we started with a clean sheet of paper 2 years ago, today, what I saw I think we've got something that's going to work. If for nothing else, for taking the remnants, we've got remnant there 4 and 5 ounces to the ton. And so even though it might have a high unit costs, the fact we can go in there, extract the gold, put back fill in there at the same strength of the extracted rock tells me that we can go back to all of those old pillars and start extracting this without increasing any operating risks whatsoever. So we'll have an operating unit by the end of the year, might have a schedule to introduce operating units over the next 3 years such that the technology will make a material contribution. Now, you can't book that, they still have to go through the work. But I think by the end of the year, the team will be able to tell you what to expect from this strategy, whether it will work and how quickly they will be able to start delivering production by the end of the year.

Operator

Operator

Our final question comes from Diana Kinch of Dow Jones.

Diana Kinch

Analyst · Dow Jones

I'd like to ask if AngloGold foresees any further strike problems or union disputes at AngloGold installations in South Africa this year. And how can the industry-wide accord you mentioned [Technical difficulty]

Operator

Operator

My apologies, I'm going to reconnect Diana now if you'll just give me 2 seconds.

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · Scotiabank

I think, Dylan, I think we got the gist of the question, it's really just an outlook on what the labor situation looks like in South Africa, and I think we'll go ahead with that.

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · Scotiabank

To answer Diana's question, I think there is no doubt that as a country, everybody's sensitive as they should be to what happened in the strikes, and in particular, Americano. The fact that the Minister reacted within 24 hours at the most recent platinum dispute was important. Wearing my President of the Chamber hat, I was part of those conversations with the National Union of Mineworkers and MCU [ph]. I was there with colleagues from the industry, including representatives from Anglo Platts where we walked through the protocols we believe that should be observed. And there's a verification process when new unions are involved in the strike, but they are protected by the Constitution, they're protected by industrial law and they are protected by the regulations in the mining industry. That would stress people understood the need to respect those conventions and those laws. And certainly, I think the dollar was a very positive one, and we agreed to a set of protocols in principle. Those protocols are being designed in detail today with the leadership of the 3 unions. And I believe it's the right step and I believe the government's response has been appropriate. Now as we go forward in the next 3 or 4 months, I think things will remain tender, but the fact is that the government is now in the game as we are in a very different way in the chamber to see if we can make sure that when we get to the negotiations, then all the issues that have the potential to be inflammatory have been dealt with in a constructive way. And I'll tell you now, no one, and I mean no one, not even new unions want to see last year repeated. Because at the end of the day, if it is, I believe it threatens their existence along with all of their existence if those things happen again. So I think we're in the right conversations. It doesn't guarantee a better result but it certainly makes sure that everybody's in the game and has got skin in the game literally looking to make sure it's the right result. So I think we've got a better chance of being successful. But I wouldn't be as bold to predict that we're not going to have a bit of activity at that time. But everybody's bruised, everybody lost a lot of money, including the miners that were on strike, so I think we're on the right conversations, and hopefully, it will turn out to be a good outcome.

Diana Kinch

Analyst · Dow Jones

But could you say, what are these protocols? I mean they're on safety, they're on union rights, what exactly are the protocols that you are discussing?

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · Scotiabank

It's on safety. It's on the recognition of the rights enshrined in the constitution and that is the right of association. And so simply put, both unions recognize the right of the other union to exist, and that each has an obligation to make sure their members are aware because they have a personal obligation to make sure members of the union behave in an appropriate way. And so for the country, it's important, it's a peace accord between the 2 unions, essentially with everyone else party to that accord with the responsibility to make sure we're doing everything we can to make sure there is no violence and that we go forward in a constructive way.

Diana Kinch

Analyst · Dow Jones

And when can it be expected to be completed, this agreement?

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · Scotiabank

I'd say. I'm talking this week. We're talking this week. And by the way, South Africa has a history with peace accords. And these sort of things, in moments of crisis, unlike any other country in the world, and I'm relying on that commitment when Nelson Mandela's name was invoked yesterday and the constitution and what this country has fought for over 18 years, there was a few tears in the eyes of everybody in that room, people are committed to make sure we don't go the low road.

Operator

Operator

Gentlemen, we have no further questions. Do you have any closing comments?

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · Scotiabank

Ladies and gentlemen, I'd like to say thank you for your participation today, and thank you for the support that you've given all of us at AngloGold Ashanti. As you know, leaders come and go. For me, it's been a privilege to be with the team. We have a great team here. They will take it forward and continue to build on the foundations. I'd like to thank all of the AngloGold Ashanti people for the great support, from the Board, in particular. And I'm excited. I've got shares in AngloGold Ashanti, and I'm going to keep my shares because the gold where it is, with the great results these guys are going to deliver, I think will be a good investment for the long term. Thank you.