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AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU)

Q3 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 8, 2012

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Transcript

Stewart Bailey

Management

All right. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the presentation of our results for the third quarter. Quick safety announcement. In the unlikely event of any safety or any emergency, go off to the exits, gather around in the parking lot behind the building, and the safety marshals will take over from there. As is customary, our flow of the presentation today, Mark will open up with a review of the quarter. He'll talk to the strike activity that we've seen this quarter, he'll hand over to Venkat, who'll talk through the balance sheet and financials. Mark will talk about our project review, then offer some concluding comments. Before we proceed, just a quick look at the Safe Harbor statement. Certain statements made in this communication, other than the statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, those concerning the economic outlook for the gold mining industry, expectations regarding gold prices, production, cash costs and other operating results, growth prospects and outlook of AngloGold Ashanti's operations, individually or in the aggregate, including the achievement of project milestones, the completion and commencement of commercial operations of certain of AngloGold Ashanti's exploration and production projects, and the completion and acquisitions of dispositions, AngloGold Ashanti's liquidity and capital resources, capital expenditure and outcome and consequence of any potential or pending litigation or regulatory proceedings or environmental issues, are forward-looking statements regarding AngloGold Ashanti's operations, economic performance and financial condition. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause AngloGold Ashanti's actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from the anticipated results, performance or achievements expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements. Although AngloGold Ashanti believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have…

Mark Cutifani

Management

Okay, yes. Thanks, very much Stewart. Ladies and gentlemen, in the last 5 years, AngloGold Ashanti's hit rate on quarterly guidance has been better than 80%. And I think Venkat worst miss in aggregate was around 2%. So we take our commitments very seriously and obviously, very disappointed today to report that we missed on our production costs in line. But overall, the real disappointment is the fact that we've had the situation in South Africa that we've had, which is concerning and is something we'll get through, but certainly from our point of view, has been a real challenge from all of our staff members, and I've got Mike O'Hare here today, who's done a tremendous job in leading the South African team, and we're very proud of the leadership and the challenges that they've been able to confront. And I think demonstrate real leadership something for all of us in the industry and we're proud to be associated with team and what they've been able to do given the circumstances. It has been a tough quarter in South Africa, with Marikana and its unsettling aftermath. And in fact, the issues for us started post-Marikana because I think, quite frankly, the whole industry was unsettled conversation as absenteeism went up and a whole different set of conversations marked the nature of discourse through the industry. That followed with strikes and general labor unrest. Unfortunately, opportunists, not necessarily associated with the industry, encouraging people to leave work on the promise of things that could not be delivered. And in fact, if they were delivered, would be absolutely tragic for them as employees and I've have seen that -- I think we've seen some of that unfold. And certainly, from our point of view, the concern we have is the ramifications…

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'd like to cover the following 3 areas in today's presentation: Third quarter 2012 financial results, cash flow and balance sheet, dividends and fourth quarter 2012 update. Starting with the third quarter financial results. As you know, from our release last month, third quarter delivered lower gold production of 1.03 million ounces as compared to last quarter and unit cash cost of around $866 an ounce. Gold production was down when you compare it to the previous quarter by about 4%, mainly due to the lower grades and limited mining flexibility at Obuasi, which accounted for about 23,000 ounces. But relatively higher grades mined at Geita in the second quarter around 13,000 ounces and lower grades and equipment availability at Brasil Mineração around 8,000 ounces. And when you compare it against our market guidance, it was 4% below again, due to the strike impact in South Africa, lower production at Obuasi and in Brazil. This resulted in AngloGold Ashanti posting adjusted headline earnings of $235 million or USD 0.61 per share. This level of adjusted headline earnings was lower when compared to both the previous quarter and the third quarter of 2011. When compared to the $253 million adjusted headline earnings recorded in the second quarter of 2012, the third quarter earnings were positively impacted by insurance recovery of $21 million, post-tax at Sunrise Dam, which related to the pit wall failure, which compensated the loss of the Boddington royalty and a deferred tax credit of $58 million from the restructuring at Serra Grande in Brazil. However, the 7% reduction in the third quarter earnings were due to the following principal reasons: A 4% drop in production and as Mark mentioned, increase in wages, winter [indiscernible] in South African region and lower…

Mark Cutifani

Management

Thanks, Venkat. Ladies and gentlemen, obviously, the impact of the South African situation has hit some of our financial metrics but the one thing I would say is that with the purchase of the 2 assets, we're happy actually with both acquisitions. For those that have watched us carefully, we've made 5 major acquisitions in the last 5 years, plus we've divested some assets. And when I look at all of those transactions and the investment either in or out, which is north of $3 billion, those investments or decisions are worth more than $9 billion in our hands today. So we've got a track record of delivering on those key strategic moves. And certainly, with both the Serra Grande acquisition and Mine Waste Solution, we're very happy with what we've seen. We're happy that, that $500-and-something million that you saw committed during the quarter, has been money well spent and will continue to enhance value. And by the way, they're both cash accretive as we speak. So I'm very happy that we've made the right calls, and certainly, continues a track record of making the right calls in terms of capital allocation within the business. And in terms of responding to the pressures that we see, on a broader basis, the gold price has been a little flat. We do certainly believe that gold price has the potential to kick a little bit obviously, with recent years out of the U.S. and the continuing pressures across the board, but you can't bank those numbers. And we're making sure that we're prudent and we're managing all parts of the business to keep our balance sheet in good shape, keep our financial flexibility and keep ourselves in the position where we can make the right calls on a long-term basis. So…

Mark Cutifani

Management

Okay. Allan, we're obviously, with the Sadiola was 12 months behind the original schedule as a consequence of the coup. So that would be the first point. There's about 200,000 ounces obviously impact, but we'll see what that looks like because we found some other smaller deposits that might help mitigate that issue in the 2014 context. Obviously, we're a bit slower on Mongbwalu because of the scope that will have an impact and the South African absolute contribution is the other area that's subject to critical focus at the moment. So they're the 3 areas that would impact the 2014 numbers. What we'll do at the end of the Q4 in terms of ourselves in February, we'll make that very clear and we'll set out what we think the final numbers should look like in terms of those targets. But the underlying strategy doesn't change. Those operations, we're still going towards those expansions. Does it push the numbers back? Could do obviously, but we'll be very clear in the next quarter once we've done the full review. And in particular, South Africa, I think, needs to be addressed in that context and so we'll be very clear about that. But again, no big change in the overall strategy but certainly it will have an impact on 2014 numbers. And I'm just trying to give you a sense of what that impact would be with those 3 points of departure, okay? From a strategy options point of view, we continue to keep open portfolio options. No big shift at this stage we again, when I was asked this morning, a strike is a strike. If we shifted the strategy on the basis of the strike or if in the industry, we shifted strategies on the basis of strikes then every…

Unknown Analyst

Management

I have 3 questions, 1 for you and 2 for Venkat. Firstly, just if we go back at Obuasi and Obuasi is an old mine, you've got aging infrastructure, you're getting deeper, you're getting mechanized and to me it sounds like the marginal of operating this ounces will be more expensive. What is the business case really behind this and do you have other options you could put your mining elsewhere sort of not cropping up? What is the business case?

Mark Cutifani

Management

The business case in terms of Obuasi is a 30 million-ounce resource. We believe from a productivity point of view that there's a 30% to 40% productivity improvement need be had that the decline gives us incremental infrastructure that increases the productive capacity and asset like that delivering $200 million the $200 million free cash flow a year is worth somewhere between at least $3 billion to $5 billion. That's the size of the price. That's why we're there and as you see, we've been breakeven the last 3 years. What we have to do is turn that opportunity in $200 million to $300 million free cash flow generator over the next 20 to 30 years and you've got one hell of an asset.

Adrian Hammond - BNP Paribas, Research Division

Management

And just for Venkat. Venkat there's been some talk of changes in the mining law happening in the DLC. One is increase in state ownership and the other is royalties, what's the impact for your 2 projects and then secondly, the CapEx downgrade of $200 million from which operation are you reducing that capital?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

Adrian, if I can answer the second question first. If you look at the amount, which is unspent as compared to our original forecast it's around 845 million for the fourth quarter, and this is based on historical trends of expenditure. Quite a lot of the CapEx, which goes in from the original loss doesn't get spent it gets revised downwards, et cetera. This CapEx cuts of 200 million comes across all of the projects, based on the review of the stay-in business capital expenditure we have not touched all reserve development. We haven't touched anything to do with health and safety environment, legal compliance asset integrities regarding the others. And also per Mark mentioned about some of the projects, which have been pulled back slowed down in relation to that as well. So it comes from a whole range of projects based on the spent to-date and as part of our portfolio review. With regard to the DRC question you raised, just bear in mind that this is a comment which has been made by the ministry of mines. He's also said that it has got to go through a negotiation process. It's not been something which the Parliament of the DRC has actually said, that's aspect #1. Secondly, when we obtained -- when we bought into Kibali, you've got to bear in mind that we had -- the government originally had to Okimo [ph], which is now Sokimo [ph] a 30% ownership. And post-the deal, the joint venture company between us and Randgold bought out the 20% in an absolute opened transparent manner which was approved by the minister of portfolio and the cabinets. So we've been through that debate. And similarly, in terms of the ownership which we have in our own Mongbwalu project where the garment through Sokimo has I think close to about 14% ownership. That again, went through an extensive negotiation process. And it's quite recent. And Victor in terms of royalties, et cetera, it's been captured by the agreement. But we are waiting to see the details. It's just one comment which he has made in terms of the news interview. And we've got to see how it pans out but at least in our case, the negotiations have been pretty recent and the garments has had an original ownership where we've actually bought it back.

Mark Cutifani

Management

Adrian, I'm going to have a second crack at you, not at you personally. I think the overarching question I might just step back. 4 years ago, we had a conversation with others around Geita. And it was losing $120 million a year and the same question was put to me, why don't you sell Geita? And I said, "Look, we believe that we can turn that around and improve and generate at least $100 million free cash flow". Venkat, this year, $350-ish? And that includes paying the government $180 odd million tax. I can have that conversation regarding Siguiri and the 25% throughput improvement there, the Iduapriem turnaround, the CVSA turnaround, the Cripple Creek changes going from the $500 million asset to a $2.5 billion asset now in our books. Obuasi is the one that we haven't cracked. Of the 21 assets, we've seen significant improvements amounting to $1 billion free cash improvement across the portfolio. Obuasi's time has come. And we did say that we had Obuasi is the last cat in the pack in terms of the resource allocation. It's now got the full project 1 team working with Peter, Mark Malcom who's now actually on site on a dedicated basis. We'll deliver a $200 million free cash flow improvement in my view over the next 3 to 4 years. And we'll demonstrate that it is a vital long term asset that will contribute real value. The good news for our shareholders or the bad news for our shareholders is it's not valued in the portfolio. The good news is in 3 to 4 years time, it'll make a significant difference and in my view it should be in there somewhere between $3 billion and $5 billion. That's per the challenge for us as a team. We've hit every one of the other assets and made significant improvements. Obuasi's time has come.

Unknown Analyst

Management

It's Darren Walter [ph] from Renaissance Capital. Just wanted to get a feel for what the situation is like in terms of motivation of the workforce in these operation on the ground. And what are you guys doing from a management perspective to contain these flair ups of instability at the various sites?

Mark Cutifani

Management

If I could make 1 or 2 observations. I might ask Mike if you'd be ready to say a couple of things, firstly, the return -- I asked Mike that same question by the way, about 3 days ago and I think the encouraging thing and what we've seen so far is people have come back to work and have actually got into the work with them pretty quickly. We're taking things very carefully, very slowly to make sure safety is the key focus. And my experience in all of these things, and unfortunately I've been there before is that if you focus on safety and looking after people in that first 2 or 3 days and make sure that it's not about production that you get into the right conversation pretty quickly. And people want to do their best and we're finding that in Vaal River. I think we’re seeing that in Tautona and Savuka. At Mponeng, we had a small group of people that decided that they would take the law into their own hands, threaten people, damage equipment and started threatening people. That's not going to happen. And so we've had lots of communication and people on the ground wanting to come back to work and get back into a normal swing of things. So our focus is going to be on sorting out those people that are creating the problems for everyone. And that will be done in an appropriate way. But it is making sure that we get everybody back to work. And so Mike, do you want to just talk about what you're seeing on the ground?

M. P. O'Hare

Management

Mark, I think you've described it really well. The residual tension at Mponeng is fairly obvious and our stance is that Mponeng's a 50-year old body. One of the things we have to do in the productivity process for Mponeng is to make sure we get the labor relations climate right. And that includes everybody that works at that mine. So the process that's unfolding at Mponeng at the moment is talking to all the unions and that includes AMCU and talking to all the representatives to get to a space where as we as management feel that it is appropriate to send people back on the ground. The bulk of the workforce really wants to go back to work. They're really motivated to go back to work. There is however, a splinter group, which still has quite a lot of tension in it that we're dealing with now.

Kane Slutzkin - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Management

It's Kane Slutzkin here from UBS. You've spoken about the impact to Q4 but to what extent do you think was sort of ongoing productivity loss as a result of the snowball that was sort of going to creep into Q1 because we have seen a lot of companies sort of struggle to get back to normal levels of production so to what extent does Q1 become a problem which will obviously be compounded by the sort of seasonally slow start to the year?

Mark Cutifani

Management

I think our thinking at the moment, is that if we do our recovery work in the right way this quarter and try and make sure that we get all things cleaned up that we need to get cleaned up, we come into Christmas with our faces secured and properly set, then the January ramp-up should be now worse than the ramp-ups that we would see under normal circumstances. So that's the logic. Mike, did you want to add to that?

M. P. O'Hare

Management

I think Mark, the effects of the geotechnical effects appear to be about 5% to 10% face length loss due to the month stoppage and that percentage depends on the depth of the mine. We've had no real geotechnical issues that have happened in the month that put us back significantly. We will have a normal slow ramp up after Christmas, New Year and I think Mark has talked to looking at the asset base and having a look at what's appropriate in terms of the margin to be mining. But we'll get into that process into Q4.

Mark Cutifani

Management

And I think that the point Mike makes an important that what we have seen is a 5% to 10% face loss or deterioration. So that will obviously, impact the way we think about the business going forward, making sure that we are productive. And we've got to do what we've got to do. But again, it's too early to call and that's what we'll do when we have our first run early next year. But that's a sort of issue we're working with at the moment. But the idea here is to do it safely and get back in the swing of things come January.

Kane Slutzkin - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Management

Just one last question. Just on technology you said it's progressing quite well. Is there not perhaps an opportunity to sort of speed it up quicker in terms of perhaps using an asset that's maybe not really moving the needle and sort of using it as a peer test case, as opposed to sort of just on the side?

Mark Cutifani

Management

Look, there is an opportunity to speed up. The good news is we've gone from the first target of 24 days. Mike I think the last one 7 days. The team now has a target to do it in 3 and they're making the technologies available off-the-shelf. We've started drilling and even in a very short period of time they made massive improvements and so based on that, I think there's a good chance, they will definitely have working faces next year. And the ramp up -- I think, Mark's ramp-up strategy is a very good one and if there's an opportunity to get that going early he will. And I think it will be key in managing some of the shortcomings that might happen if you got some face lengths risk. I think this is a great opportunity and an incremental way of automating and mechanizing that is very different to the way mechanization stories have been handled in the past in South Africa. This is a no-brainer in my view, Mike?

M. P. O'Hare

Management

I just like to link that to something you said earlier, Mark. The wage negotiations includes the extra shifts we want to work. One of the primary reasons for that is to enable our technology piece. So those 2 will work hand-in-hand. I think what we don't mention is the back fill strategy that needs to go with the repouring strategy and we also now up to back fill, which is over 120 mpi, which we've managed to produce. And we're actually working with goldfields now because that will benefit both of us from a high-strength back fill point of view either with technology or without technology.

Mark Cutifani

Management

Yes, look, thanks, everyone for being here. It's been a tough quarter. We think that we're 90% of the way through some of the tough things we've had to deal with. If I can say that in my 35 years in the industry, I've seen challenges of this nature before. Although I would say that the violence associated with Marikana is the worst I've seen. However, as an organization, it's up to us to learn and to make changes in the way we're managing and leading so that we learn and become a better company as a consequence. So I'd extend that conversation to us being a better industry and ultimately a better country as a result. And I think the fact that we've got the President and everybody else engaged in these conversations, we've got the mines minister, we've got a broad section of society, I think if it helps get us in better conversations about the future of the country, the future of the mining industry, whether it's the sims [ph] debate or other debates. And I think there's an opportunity for us to turn this to a positive in terms of the longer-term but at the same time, we should never forget the 50 people that lost their lives and certainly as an industry, we'll continue to reflect on that loss. I should say something about the families, our thoughts are with them and certainly, we hope that we go forward in a much more constructive way and create a new industry, new opportunities and create a better South Africa. Thank you.