Mike Jackson - AutoNation, Inc.
Analyst · Consumer Edge. Your line is now open
No. Credit is very available and very affordable. You have some peak subprime that people are taking some medicine, but that's not really material to our business since only 6% of our revenue comes from subprime. Now, there is some volatility in the pre-owned market. If you're looking for something that was built in 2008, 2009, 2010, there's relatively small supply, since it was little production in those years. And so those vehicles are worth a premium in the marketplace. However, there's a lot of late-model stuff coming off lease, and the issue is, more than anything, is it's the wrong mix, because the install capacity three, four years ago was heavily weighted towards cars, and that's where the marketplace was pushed, even though there was already a strong migration towards trucks. So, therefore, you have a mismatch between what the market wants to buy and what's coming back to market. So you have some residual value pressures there. So, at the end of the day, it depends on what seat you're in. If I'm in a seat where I've made a bet on residual values three, four years ago, and now this – there – you have this wave coming back with a mismatch in mix, I better have set up enough reserves for that, because it's going to be an issue. If you're a retailer like us, we're looking at it and saying, we got a greater supply coming, and whatever the price is, we turn the inventory so fast that it's basically a difference between what we acquire it for and what we sell it for. Obviously, if you have an aging issue with pre-owned, like we did with all the hold on recall, that was a problem. But that's really totally behind us now. So from our vantage point, we view the pre-owned situation as an opportunity going forward. Depending on where you sit, if you're a finance company or let's say a lease company with a big lease portfolio, depending where you put those residuals and what the mix is, you could have issues.