Michael J. Jackson - AutoNation, Inc.
Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open
Yeah. Very good question. So, as I look at the situation for 2017, I think the manufacturers have made the decision already to sell over 17 million vehicles in the United States, and the variable is not that number, but incentives, and I draw that conclusion from looking at the inventory levels we're taking into the year and the production plan going out. (20:01) No, no, (20:03) inventories are for the industry too high, and that's the environment that we're in, and so incentives are going to be aggressive. Now, I think from an OEM level, they can afford the incentives because the mix has shifted to such an extent towards trucks with an exit rate coming out of 2016 of 63%. And if you look at transaction prices compared to, say, five years ago, both due to mix and price increases it's up over $4,000 a car. So they're putting another $1,000, let's say, in incentives. So what, the mix is so rich on the profit side that they can make a tremendous amount of money with higher incentives. I think the only thing is on sustainable, that (20:50) I'm concerned about is the lease rate at 30% and with over 3 million vehicles coming back this year, and that continues to increase, could ultimately have an impact on residual values and resale values, which is then damaging to customers and to the brand. So that has to be watched closely. Now if you bring that down to the humble world of the retailer, you have high industry inventories with every incentive you could imagine in the world in a very complex, different structures, with the worst being the market target incentives. Now I think most manufacturers have recognized the corrosive nature of market target incentives and are modifying their programs in the right direction, still has a way to go but I'm cautiously optimistic that those most onerous incentives will not be as prevalent in 2017 as they were in 2016.